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First of all, let me first go through what actually happened on 27th Feb.
1. Multiple Pakistani fighters tried to ingress into Indian territory and attack Indian Army positions, for "revenge" against us striking their Abdul's hideouts at Balakot.
2. Multiple IAF jets were scrambled to counter PAF aggression, however, due to their superior ratio and tactics at that moment, were able to ingress into India and successfully dropped bombs at IA formations, though they were unable to cause any damage.
3. In the ensuing aerial battle, we shot down their one F-16, and they shot down one Mig-21Bison of ours.
4. To cover up their retreat, they started firing a volley of Amraam's from the F-16s waiting outside LoC at our jets, though none of our jets were hit, however, our one Mi-17V5, which was minding its own business, unfortunately, got hit and crashed, resulting in the death of 6 IAF personnel.
Before you jump on me and say, that was an "accidental crash due to technical snag", let us revise what actually happened that day.
Garand Kalan, place of Mi-17 crash side, something like 8 km - west of Srinagar.
Aerial engagement map
It is roughly 70-80 km from engagement site.
Range of Aim-120C5 AMRAAMs, which Pakistan posses, excess of 100km. From wikipedia
Now, time of aerial engagement - 0945 hrs - 1000 hrs.
And, time of the crash of Mi-17 - 1000/1010 hrs, source here and here.
Too big a coincidence, eh ? No. Helicopter's do not fall from the sky just like that. Even during complete engine failure (Mi-17 as 2 engines) and hydraulic failure, they have the capacity to glide down and make an emergency landing. Also,
We can safely rule out technical failure. So, what theories remain?
IAF must pretty much know by now, even by initial analysis that, it is a victim of PAF missile.
So, coming back to the main point of revenge.
Question is, whether, IAF will swallow up this misadventure by PAF and pretend everything is equalized, or waiting for the right moment for retribution on PAF.
1. Multiple Pakistani fighters tried to ingress into Indian territory and attack Indian Army positions, for "revenge" against us striking their Abdul's hideouts at Balakot.
2. Multiple IAF jets were scrambled to counter PAF aggression, however, due to their superior ratio and tactics at that moment, were able to ingress into India and successfully dropped bombs at IA formations, though they were unable to cause any damage.
3. In the ensuing aerial battle, we shot down their one F-16, and they shot down one Mig-21Bison of ours.
4. To cover up their retreat, they started firing a volley of Amraam's from the F-16s waiting outside LoC at our jets, though none of our jets were hit, however, our one Mi-17V5, which was minding its own business, unfortunately, got hit and crashed, resulting in the death of 6 IAF personnel.
Before you jump on me and say, that was an "accidental crash due to technical snag", let us revise what actually happened that day.
Garand Kalan, place of Mi-17 crash side, something like 8 km - west of Srinagar.
Aerial engagement map
It is roughly 70-80 km from engagement site.
Range of Aim-120C5 AMRAAMs, which Pakistan posses, excess of 100km. From wikipedia
Now, time of aerial engagement - 0945 hrs - 1000 hrs.
And, time of the crash of Mi-17 - 1000/1010 hrs, source here and here.
Too big a coincidence, eh ? No. Helicopter's do not fall from the sky just like that. Even during complete engine failure (Mi-17 as 2 engines) and hydraulic failure, they have the capacity to glide down and make an emergency landing. Also,
Source hereEyewitness reported that a loud explosion was heard in the air before the chopper crashed in a trail of smoke, indicating a possible catastrophic external event contributed to the incident. The crash — the chopper was airborne at 10 am and crashed at 10:10 am — coincided with the time IAF jets were scrambled to intercept PAF fighters approaching the border.
We can safely rule out technical failure. So, what theories remain?
- It was shot down by BVR missile from PAF jet -- Most plausible.
- It was a friendly-fire incident, our SAMs mistook it as enemy aircraft. Not Possible
- No, Mi-17 took off minutes before from Srinagar AFS. Read this. It was well within radar record.
- All IAF planes are fitted with IFF(Identification of friend or foe) system.
- A slow moving and low flying helicopter cannot be confused for an enemy jet.
IAF must pretty much know by now, even by initial analysis that, it is a victim of PAF missile.
So, coming back to the main point of revenge.
- We stuck their terrorist training camp, or in their words, just "few trees and crows". Whereas, attacked our army positions.
- They tried to attack our jets with BVR missiles which were inside our territory, and unfortunately, got a Mi-17 which caused martyrdom of 6 IAF personnel.
Question is, whether, IAF will swallow up this misadventure by PAF and pretend everything is equalized, or waiting for the right moment for retribution on PAF.