Do you know what keeps going across my mind? The suspicious silence of Iran. India trusts the Shia nation way too much.
There's an intense Iran-Pakistan WOM (war through other means) going on. The reason we don't hear much about it is because our establishment has intentionally blocked out the news to prevent the sectarian conflict to spill over and ruin Indian domestic peace.
There are Sunni terrorist groups like Jamal-ul-Ahar, Lashkar-e-Janghvi, Sipah-e-Sahaba, Ahle-Sunnat-Wal-Jamat, Lashkar-e-Omar, Sipah-e-Muhammad-e-Pakistan, Harkat-ul-Mujahadden (HuM). These are not just token 'shell companies'. They are dedicated anti-Shia terror groups with an explicit aim to kill Shias. Each of them has a cadre base which is larger than LeT. And unlike LeT which has geographical ambitions (Kashmir), the anti-Shia groups have no geographical constraints, and have a broader mandate to squish Shias wherever they are present, be it Hazaras in Afghanistan or Baloch Shias in Sistan, or Shias within Pakistan.
A lot of Indians pat their backs assuming that we are great strategists who managed to brainwash Iran to do our bidding. But the truth is, Iran is under intense attack from Sunni groups. They are not doing a favor to us. They need all the help they can get, so they collaborate with India.
A nation never raises an issue for tokenism. If there were a few hundred criminal gangs operating in the Iran-Pak border, then the local police would have handled it. If there were a few thousand transgressions, then the Iran border force would have handled it. The fact that no less than the President of Iran raises this issue means that the problem is graver in its width and depth.
Pakistan literally put Rouhani in a spot when they cornered him in a press conference and asked him to 'explain' what 'Raa aguunt Kaalbhooshun Jaaydev' was doing in Iran. This stunt hasn't gone down with Iran. There's bad blood between Iran and Pakistan at a scale which we can't imagine. They are shooting down each other's drones, border skirmishes are going on (10 Iran border guards were killed by Pakistan just last week), spies are being caught, the cold war has turned very hot. Iran would have to take offensive measures for its own sake, even if the India factor was missing. India is just a bonus. We should also look at Iran from that context and not confuse them as our friends (after all, Hizbul in Kashmir is a Shia group, so they aren't exactly making any concessions for us).
From what I am hearing, India has planned a massive Tandav along with Iran and Afghanistan. This is not going to stop with just the deaths of a few Paki foot soldiers or the destruction of brick and mud bunkers with fire assaults. They are in for an asswhopping which will make our 2003 offensive seem like a friendly meet and greet. The only reason we stopped in 2003 was because the US intervened and imposed unofficial sanctions on us by issuing a travel ban on US citizens visiting India. Our IT industry was nascent at that time and tourism was a major revenue source. Both would have been impacted adversely and we were just crawling out of the scars of the Kargil conflict which cost us 10B $. India had to stop firing in exchange for US withdrawal of this unofficial travel ban. What has happened now is that the Orange ****** has unilaterally imposed a similar ban on Indian IT industry, so the government and industry body is furious.
Now that our interests are being hit, we have no reason to keep our side of the bargain to 'be nice'. We will hit Pakistan hard to send the US a message that if you make an arrangement with us, there are costs to not sticking to the terms. The deep state in the US is trying to 'coach' us into a submissive position like a frog in a boiling pan to push our red lines. We will push back, and in style.