Know Your 'Rafale'

[sgarg]

Well Mr Modi is in USA. We should pay attention to what is happening there, as it is relevant to this thread.

I am sure USA can take this opportunity to make an offer on F-16 or F-18.

We all know that Rafale was a political choice primarily. Harping on technical parameters does not help in understanding the situation.

BJP has a very strong US constituency (people who want better ties with USA). The government has changed without Rafale deal happening. I think French miscalculated and bargained too hard on tech transfer which delayed the deal.

IAF mismanaged the contract by hiding too many cost items from bidding process.

I think there is still a possibility India may end up with F-16 or F-18. USA knows Pakistan is not a future market for its fighters. Pakistan has become China's client state. India has the dubious distinction of being World's largest weapons importer. USA will try everything in the book to hard-sell fighters.

 

[sgarg]

Another reason is only USA can deliver quickly. USA has the largest factories and the largest pool of trained manpower of any nation in aviation.

In light of delays, and increasing risks being perceived by Indian government, there is a possibility of MMRCA tender getting scrapped and fighters acquired through government to government deal.

 

[ersakthivel]

When we ink this deal of $20B I am going to change my MOM reference to say that "We put a spacecraft in the Mars orbit for less than the cost of half a Rafale Jet"

That shows how overpriced this deal is.

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

The only evaluation available was the Swiss evaluation and it was leaked to the media. The govt launched an inquiry into the leak. It wasn't professional and the leak breached their secrecy laws.

No other county has made its evaluations public.

The only facts present today are that the Rafale and EF made the cut, all other aircraft failed to make the cut in the IAF. And among Rafale and EF, Rafale was the cheapest.

yes the key word here is

WAS

yes rafale WAS the cheapest

Not anymore

as per news reports now i.e. Today EFT is the cheapest

 

[p2prada]

yes the key word here is

WAS

yes rafale WAS the cheapest

Not anymore

as per news reports now i.e. Today EFT is the cheapest

No such thing.

Rafale was offered at $85.5 Million as unit price. Typhoon was offered at $124 Million.

And Rafale is more developed. Just bringing Typhoon to Rafale's level will increase costs further and India will be forced to bear some of the expenses.

That Typhoon discount offer is a desperate attempt to scuttle the MRCA tender. Both are detrimental to the IAF and naturally to the country. Once the tender is canceled EADS will simply withdraw their untenable offer or bring in cost increases by adding stuff that they had previously not mentioned.

It is impossible for EADS to sell Typhoon to India at a cheaper rate than one of the EF partners. The cost of a Typhoon Trance 1 offered to the European partners was $80 Million 15 years ago. During the same time a more developed Rafale F1 with PESA radar costed $60 Million. So, what makes you think EADS will offer a more advanced Typhoon Tranche 3 at the same rate as Tranche 1? It is impossible.

The Rafale still costs an arm and a leg to purchase. And Typhoon continues to be higher still.

As for cost increases in Rafale MRCA, it is justified. IAF has set up new requirements and Dassault has also offered new technologies that were not present in the RFP. There appear to be 60+ new changes in requirements over the 643 original parameters, apart from integration of new weapons that were developed or became available after the RFP was generated in 2007. Some of those could include DIRCM, CFT and so on, stuff that even ALA/MN have not requested for. If these 60+ new changes are expected on Typhoon also, then the cost of the Typhoon will balloon even more than the $124 Million unit price.

Anyway the draft contract has already been prepared by Dassault and submitted to the CNC. It's almost done. Like it or not, Rafale will soon become part of the IAF.

I'm waiting for the day the contract is signed, could be anywhere between 3 to 6 months from today. It will silence all the naysayers.

 

[Dhairya Yadav]

Well Mr Modi is in USA. We should pay attention to what is happening there, as it is relevant to this thread.

I am sure USA can take this opportunity to make an offer on F-16 or F-18.

We all know that Rafale was a political choice primarily. Harping on technical parameters does not help in understanding the situation.

BJP has a very strong US constituency (people who want better ties with USA). The government has changed without Rafale deal happening. I think French miscalculated and bargained too hard on tech transfer which delayed the deal.

IAF mismanaged the contract by hiding too many cost items from bidding process.

I think there is still a possibility India may end up with F-16 or F-18. USA knows Pakistan is not a future market for its fighters. Pakistan has become China's client state. India has the dubious distinction of being World's largest weapons importer. USA will try everything in the book to hard-sell fighters.

F16, 18 didnt even passed the minimum requirements. And i have already told you, MoD, Jaitley is very impressed with Rafale and are considering ordering about 180, instead of 126. Why would they do this? F16 F18 are good fighters, but are not even close to what Rafale and Typhoon offers.

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

No such thing.

Rafale was offered at $85.5 Million as unit price. Typhoon was offered at $124 Million.

And Rafale is more developed. Just bringing Typhoon to Rafale's level will increase costs further and India will be forced to bear some of the expenses.

That Typhoon discount offer is a desperate attempt to scuttle the MRCA tender. Both are detrimental to the IAF and naturally to the country. Once the tender is canceled EADS will simply withdraw their untenable offer or bring in cost increases by adding stuff that they had previously not mentioned.

It is impossible for EADS to sell Typhoon to India at a cheaper rate than one of the EF partners. The cost of a Typhoon Trance 1 offered to the European partners was $80 Million 15 years ago. During the same time a more developed Rafale F1 with PESA radar costed $60 Million. So, what makes you think EADS will offer a more advanced Typhoon Tranche 3 at the same rate as Tranche 1? It is impossible.

The Rafale still costs an arm and a leg to purchase. And Typhoon continues to be higher still.

As for cost increases in Rafale MRCA, it is justified. IAF has set up new requirements and Dassault has also offered new technologies that were not present in the RFP. There appear to be 60+ new changes in requirements over the 643 original parameters, apart from integration of new weapons that were developed or became available after the RFP was generated in 2007. Some of those could include DIRCM, CFT and so on, stuff that even ALA/MN have not requested for. If these 60+ new changes are expected on Typhoon also, then the cost of the Typhoon will balloon even more than the $124 Million unit price.

Anyway the draft contract has already been prepared by Dassault and submitted to the CNC. It's almost done. Like it or not, Rafale will soon become part of the IAF.

I'm waiting for the day the contract is signed, could be anywhere between 3 to 6 months from today. It will silence all the naysayers.

no such thing

IAF technically cleared both AC in the condition they were in at the time of evaluation

so both should be acceptable to IAF, unless IAF ----ed up big time

and lower pricing of rafale was then at that time today EFT has offered discount and become cheaper

if it is cheaper today by Billion Euros why shouldnt we buy it ?

see modi keeps on saying there is no money in treasury

subsidies should be cut

then why should we spend a billion euros more for rafale when EFT is cheaper ?

 

[p2prada]

no such thing

IAF technically cleared both AC in the condition they were in at the time of evaluation

so both should be acceptable to IAF, unless IAF ----ed up big time

and lower pricing of rafale was then at that time today EFT has offered discount and become cheaper

if it is cheaper today by Billion Euros why shouldnt we buy it ?

see modi keeps on saying there is no money in treasury

subsidies should be cut

then why should we spend a billion euros more for rafale when EFT is cheaper ?

126 Rafales at $85.5 Million is $10.8 Billion.

126 Typhoons at $124 Million is $15.6 Billion.

If the Germans reduced Typhoon's price by a Billion, then it will still be $4 Billion more than Rafale. It's effing common sense.

 

[Immanuel]

^^^^

There was never any mention of real flyaway prices of both vendors. All that was clear in the early days of L1 is that each Rafale was $5 million cheaper, this was wayy before they found out Rafale bid didn't include many items that were later added on and the cost more than doubled. EF consortium did offer 21,000 crore discount i.e just over $4 Billion around end of July.

The real cost of both fighters in terms of the Indian offer is still unclear, all we know is that EF is now offered cheaper, this happened before Dassault was asked to re-look its prices, might be we have cheaper offer in the mean time. This deal is still not over till it clears both CNC and MOF. Now, it makes little sense to look at other MRCA contenders, too late in the day but this still isn't a done deal, one can always rely on Dassault to ***k it up. It really isn't over till its over and there is still quite some time.

 

[p2prada]

^^^^

There was never any mention of real flyaway prices of both vendors. All that was clear in the early days of L1 is that each Rafale was $5 million cheaper, this was wayy before they found out Rafale bid didn't include many items that were later added on and the cost more than doubled. EF consortium did offer 21,000 crore discount i.e just over $4 Billion around end of July.

The real cost of both fighters in terms of the Indian offer is still unclear, all we know is that EF is now offered cheaper, this happened before Dassault was asked to re-look its prices, might be we have cheaper offer in the mean time. This deal is still not over till it clears both CNC and MOF. Now, it makes little sense to look at other MRCA contenders, too late in the day but this still isn't a done deal, one can always rely on Dassault to ***k it up. It really isn't over till its over and there is still quite some time.

It was missed by many people but Admiral Arun Prakash had made it public back in 2011.

The Mig-35 costs $45 Million, F-16 costs $60 Million, SH costs $60.2 Million, Gripen costs $82.2 Million, Rafale costs $85.5 Million and Typhoon costs $124 Million. After Rafale and Typhoon were shortlisted, naturally the same prices were effective.

Even if they offered a $4 Billion discount on Typhoon, it would still be a Billion more than Rafale. And the Germans are lying. There is no way they can offer the Typhoon at the same price as Rafale. It is impossible.

The Tranche 1 alone cost Euro 64.8 Million. And this price is over 10 years old. Bring in the new EW suite, AESA etc, the price is obviously going to be higher. And the cost of a Typhoon has been increasing every year. Price never reduces, it only increases.

They have no intention of following through with the offer. They only want the MoD to cancel the MRCA deal. Once that's done, they will just withdraw their offer and present a new one in a govt to govt deal. No one is that stupid.

This deal is still not over till it clears both CNC and MOF.

CNC does not make decisions. You are talking about the CCS. And MoD is the same as MoF. Jaitely will make sure there are no hiccups. If money problems are there, he will cut something else, like FGFA numbers. FGFA is a JV, so any number of orders can be placed in the future. So MoF won't interfere with MoD. As for CCS, they are already aware how critical the MRCA deal is. And the file will also go to the PMO. If Jaitely has no problems, Modi will close his eyes and push the file.

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

126 Rafales at $85.5 Million is $10.8 Billion.

126 Typhoons at $124 Million is $15.6 Billion.

If the Germans reduced Typhoon's price by a Billion, then it will still be $4 Billion more than Rafale. It's effing common sense.

the german offer is cheaper than rafale by 1 billion euros they have not offered 1 billion euro discount

they have offered EFT at 1 billion euro less than Rafale

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

It was missed by many people but Admiral Arun Prakash had made it public back in 2011.

The Mig-35 costs $45 Million, F-16 costs $60 Million, SH costs $60.2 Million, Gripen costs $82.2 Million, Rafale costs $85.5 Million and Typhoon costs $124 Million. After Rafale and Typhoon were shortlisted, naturally the same prices were effective.

Even if they offered a $4 Billion discount on Typhoon, it would still be a Billion more than Rafale. And the Germans are lying. There is no way they can offer the Typhoon at the same price as Rafale. It is impossible.

The Tranche 1 alone cost Euro 64.8 Million. And this price is over 10 years old. Bring in the new EW suite, AESA etc, the price is obviously going to be higher. And the cost of a Typhoon has been increasing every year. Price never reduces, it only increases.

They have no intention of following through with the offer. They only want the MoD to cancel the MRCA deal. Once that's done, they will just withdraw their offer and present a new one in a govt to govt deal. No one is that stupid.



CNC does not make decisions. You are talking about the CCS. And MoD is the same as MoF. Jaitely will make sure there are no hiccups. If money problems are there, he will cut something else, like FGFA numbers. FGFA is a JV, so any number of orders can be placed in the future. So MoF won't interfere with MoD. As for CCS, they are already aware how critical the MRCA deal is. And the file will also go to the PMO. If Jaitely has no problems, Modi will close his eyes and push the file.

if the EFT prices will increase in the meanwhile so will the Rafale prices also how come a 10.5 billion price turned out to 22+ billion deal for rafale ?

and if India is getting a better deal from germany for EFT - 1 billion Euro cheaper than Rafale ehat your problem ?

are you working for indian interests or dasault interest s?

 

[Immanuel]

As for the dear Admiral Prakash as per your say seemed to have a better knwloedge of the cost per bird than the IAF' should perhaps help IAF??? :thumb: why don't you post some sources and we'll listen to your tunes.

Secondly CNC still has to finalize the costs, and they hope to do that, this is where creative accounting will have to come in since there will be a massive difference between initial bid and final cost including some weapons. Good luck explaining this to the MOF/MOD. What Jet-Li was told early, they seem to have randomly picked a number, that number is about to be burst. The final cost will astound Mr. Modi and he won't be happy and he is not blindly going to give a GO. Moreover there is ample time for this deal to fail, very little time to succeed.

 

[halloweene]

The fly away cost of French Rafale is public and cited on french senate site Projet de loi de finances pour 2014 : Défense : équipement des forces et excellence technologique des industries de défense . Don't forget to deduce 20% VAT that are not charged for exports.
It is sometimes hilarious how numbers fly on press and forums from "sources". (and with absolutely no content of the package description)
The only statement we really have about Eurofighter discount is 20% from original offer (by German minister). The rest is hot air.

 

[p2prada]

the german offer is cheaper than rafale by 1 billion euros they have not offered 1 billion euro discount

they have offered EFT at 1 billion euro less than Rafale

But that is not how it works.

How much is the cost of 3 years of negotiation?

What is the cost of the 60 extra added features on Rafale?

What is the cost of finishing development of Typhoon in order to bring it to Rafale's level?

These are more important questions now.

if the EFT prices will increase in the meanwhile so will the Rafale prices also how come a 10.5 billion price turned out to 22+ billion deal for rafale ?

The cost will also include ToT, industrial production, maintenance and support, training of workforce, training of pilots, training of maintenance crew, setting up base infrastructure, setting up training simulators and setting up warehouses for further maintenance over the next 30-40 years.

Like the article said, there are two costs. One would be procurement cost, the other would be lifecycle cost. And as of today we do not know the cost of either.

That $10.7 Billion for Rafale is called unit fly away cost. Procurement cost = Unit fly away cost + cost of base infrastructure + training + spares and maintenance for a few years.

and if India is getting a better deal from germany for EFT - 1 billion Euro cheaper than Rafale ehat your problem ?

are you working for indian interests or dasault interest s?

They are lying get over it. What makes you think costs won't increase when we start negotiations with EADS? Dassault's bid was binding, EADS' bid is not binding at all. They can jack up the cost on whim every year. That's why govt avoids direct dealing in such deals. They want tenders to maintain fixed rates during negotiations.

They will withdraw the offer overnight, once Rafale deal is canceled. EADS is working against Indian interests. It is obvious to all. It is the same with SAAB's offer of setting up Gripen's facility here. Both companies are pressing forward with their own interests. Coincidentally, only Dassault's interests are in our favor.

 

[p2prada]

As for the dear Admiral Prakash as per your say seemed to have a better knwloedge of the cost per bird than the IAF' should perhaps help IAF??? :thumb: why don't you post some sources and we'll listen to your tunes.

How is Admiral Arun Prakash not a source? The prices came from him.

Secondly CNC still has to finalize the costs, and they hope to do that, this is where creative accounting will have to come in since there will be a massive difference between initial bid and final cost including some weapons. Good luck explaining this to the MOF/MOD. What Jet-Li was told early, they seem to have randomly picked a number, that number is about to be burst. The final cost will astound Mr. Modi and he won't be happy and he is not blindly going to give a GO. Moreover there is ample time for this deal to fail, very little time to succeed.

Modi will do no such thing. Neither will Jet-Li. Romeo will not die.

 

[p2prada]

The only statement we really have about Eurofighter discount is 20% from original offer (by German minister). The rest is hot air.

Even if the information is real, they are clearly lying. How can they give a discount that even Typhoon partners cannot get one? Is Germany paying the remainder in royalty to the other countries? I'm sure Italy will be the first to stand in line when Germany's giving stuff away at a discount. They can easily fight for the same discounted rates India is getting Typhoons at. Then the other partners will jump in.

Even if true, it is impossible to even speculate that Germany will hold their end of the bargain. The Russians have negotiated hikes in rates after contracts were signed and here we have people who think somebody only makes an absurd announcement and we should believe it. The Scorpene deal has also seen massive hikes riding on a poorly negotiated contract. They don't even realize that after Rafale is canceled Germany can simply say, "We made no such deal," as easily as they said, "We will give 20% discount."

As far as the MRCA deal is concerned, Rafale is L1. Period.

As far as the MRCA deal is concerned, there is no negotiation with L2. Period.

If EADS wants to sell Typhoons to IAF, it will have to be through an entirely new deal. Quite like SAAB's attempt at selling Gripens above and beyond the MRCA. And realistically, that window is long gone. All that discount crap is just that, crap. And the Germans will take a dump on our face after we cancel the Rafale deal.

 

[p2prada]

@halloweene

Do you have the link for the German news report which said the Typhoon program is over Euro 90 Billion now? Can you post it if you do?

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

But that is not how it works.

How much is the cost of 3 years of negotiation?

What is the cost of the 60 extra added features on Rafale?

we have always been looted on these small misc items

What is the cost of finishing development of Typhoon in order to bring it to Rafale's level?

These are more important questions now.

EFT as evaluated by IAF meets IAF requirements

The cost will also include ToT, industrial production, maintenance and support, training of workforce, training of pilots, training of maintenance crew, setting up base infrastructure, setting up training simulators and setting up warehouses for further maintenance over the next 30-40 years.

Like the article said, there are two costs. One would be procurement cost, the other would be lifecycle cost. And as of today we do not know the cost of either.

the same is applicable to EFT and the german offer also

They are lying get over it. What makes you think costs won't increase when we start negotiations with EADS? Dassault's bid was binding, EADS' bid is not binding at all. They can jack up the cost on whim every year. That's why govt avoids direct dealing in such deals. They want tenders to maintain fixed rates during negotiations.

They will withdraw the offer overnight, once Rafale deal is canceled. EADS is working against Indian interests. It is obvious to all. It is the same with SAAB's offer of setting up Gripen's facility here. Both companies are pressing forward with their own interests. Coincidentally, only Dassault's interests are in our favor.

No this is your Rafale prem speaking

If the Dasault is so worried about us why dont it give us rafale at lower prices ?

why was it dilly dallying for 1 year to make HAL partner ?

Why was it not ready to work with HAL ?

the thing is they got confident that they can dictate terms after being declared L1 and didnt anticipate counter offers from EFT / SAAB

now they are feeling the heat

my only solution

forget MMRCA

Buy 60 Super Su30MKi (still cheaper than Rafale) + 60 Su34MKI + increase tejas Mk1 orders to 80 (40 + 40) + Tejas Mk2 to 189 (83+106)

or

126 Super Su30MKi + 126 tejas Mk2

still it will costs just about Rafale deal

 

[Punya Pratap]

I had posted long and lengthy quotes and inputs in this very thread regarding the ToT hogwash and how we have continuously been taken for a ride everytime.... Please refer post 3714 and 3715 in this very thread posted by me where I have quoted :

1) Vice Adm Retd Sinha
2) ACM Retd Tyagi
3) Maj Gen Retd Mehta
4) Retd COAS Roychowdhury