Indian Ocean Developments

[Adux]

lets go with what they and India have now. I am restricting it to modern designs)

PLAN 38 modern surface combatants and 91 missile boats amred with modern missiles

2x DDG (Luda III)
?x DDG (Luda IV)
2x DDG (type 52)
1x DDG (type 51)
2x DDG (type 52B)
2x DDG (type 52C)
2x DDG (type 51C)
4x DDG (Sovremenny)
4x FFG (type 53H2G)
10x FFG (type 53h3G)
2x FFG (type 54)
5x FFG (type 54A)
1x FFG (type 54B)
1x FFG (type 54C)
91x missile bots 9various classes)

IN 20 surface combatants

3x DDG (Delhi)
5x DDG (Kashin)
3x FFG (Krivak)
3x FFG (Brahmaputra)
3x FFG (Godavari)
3x corvette (Kora)

In a pure India v China naval battle, numbers have a quality all their own. Minus Indian air cover and with China being able to devote all its resources the IN would be swarmed under.

As an ex-tank man, you would know those above numbers mean squat, when most of the Chinese ships cant even bring up the Mission availability of the Indian Ships, Not to mention, most of those ships are not even Technically comparable whatever Sinodefence says, Indian Navy is just on a different Technological spectrum, All these access to Western Technology will not have a difference? It is impossible for the Chinese to match the Indians on Tech as of now.



Your "ssbn" is not in service, but in sea trials.

PLAN 26 attack subs

2x type 93 ssn
12x kilo
10 x type 39, 39G, 39A
2x type 41, 41A

IN 13 attack subs

9x kilo
4x 209

China has a 2:1 advantage

Can you please not count those Type 39 Romeo Class. Then I would have to count the Reserve Submarines and those Foxtrots. They are not sea worthy at all for any meaningful exercise.

That is why I laughed at string of pearls. All India had to do was warm up to the US and suddenly it was China that is hemmed in.

China is a natural threat to South Korea, Japan and US, I will reserve my comments on the Australians for now, especially with that Mandarin speaking PM.


Even if India got 5 carriers, that would only equal 1.5- 2 US super carriers. The USN is massive on a scale you might not realize

Capable of a conventional naval fight
11 Super carriers, 10 light carriers (LHD), 22 cruisers, 55 destroyers, 2 LCS, 30 frigates, 53 SSN, 4 SSGN.

The USN's combat assets are worth something like 4x India's annual GDP.

I was talking about long term IN ambitions, which is also in line with the Indian ambition. Dont expect the Indians to do a lackey role such as what JMDSF or RN. There is no catching up to USN in the next 50 years on a minimum for India or China.

 

[Adux]

I don't know who said this but this is complete hogwash. One country, two systems is what the CCP is promising which by definition means no integration whatsoever ... and frankly, the CCP does not want it.

Hell, they have enough problems with the Hong Kong legal system, trying to integrate Taiwan's political system would be the CCP's death knell.

As it wierd as it may sound, I see CCP morphing itself into some other kind of political system, Chinese are not Communist but rather HAN Nationalist. Communism was all but a means to put sand on the eyes of other Regional ethnicities to integrate into a new HAN empire. Taiwan will integrate but as you said it may not be as 1 country 2 systems but something different.

 

[Adux]

Have you? Adu, what lesson did you, I mean you personally took away from the Kursk disaster? And I mean you.

1. Sea is Supreme
2. Learnt how the British/West views Submarine Operations.
3. Logistics of Rescue.

And I am just a civvie without even rudimentary understanding of Military Mind.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

I was talking about long term IN ambitions, which is also in line with the Indian ambition. Dont expect the Indians to do a lackey role such as what JMDSF or RN. There is no catching up to USN in the next 50 years on a minimum for India or China.

And Adu, stop being so single minded. The Chinese have accomplished diplomatically to counter India's dominace without buying one single bullet, let alone a torpedo.

The only way India is goint to hurt the Chinese through the Indian ocean is to stop her trade. Is India going to stop Japanese flagged vessels going to China? How about American vessels going to China? How about Russian vessels going to China?

And you know the Americans/Russians/Japanese would have no hesitiation to sink the InN if she stops their buck.

And even if the Western Allies agree with your blockade? What is stopping a Phillipino Captain from taking his oil to Cambodia and then reselling that oil from Cambodia to China and ship it?

The military option has never been and never will be the only option.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

1. Sea is Supreme
2. Learnt how the British/West views Submarine Operations.
3. Logistics of Rescue.

And I am just a civvie without even rudimentary understanding of Military Mind.

You've learned the wrong things. Stupidity kills and the first thing about stupidity is to admit that you're stupid and then design procedures to avoid that stupidity.

The Indian Navy has yet to admit that they're stupid, let alone come up with the procedures to avoid stupidity. The Chinese MING died because one single crew member forgot to flip a swtich. The KURSK died because no one bothered to check the saftey protocals on that torpedo.

In other words, STUPIDITY killed two crews and the Indian Navy is nowhere close to admitting that they're stupid.

 

[p2prada]

In other words, STUPIDITY killed two crews and the Indian Navy is nowhere close to admitting that they're stupid.

Sir, it takes an accident to call yourself stupid in the first place. IN has never had a major sub accident since subs were inducted in 1973.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, it takes an accident to call yourself stupid in the first place. IN has never had a major sub accident since subs were inducted in 1973.

The MING and the KURSK were no accidents but a failure in procedures. No one told the Chinese crew to check the AIP switch, let alone the tripple check that is standard and no one told the programmers on the KURSK to tripple check the safety protocals.

Those of your Indian crews who have done the research know that such an "ACCIDENT" is coming and there is nothing they can do to prevent it ... and frankly, it may not be worthwhile.

The Chinese no longer assumes their crews are smart enough to avoid the most obvious of mistakes. In fact, they now assume that their crews are too stupid to recognize the hazzard and now demands ALL safety procedures to be observed.

Compare that to the cultural outlook that this forum presents. This forum assumes that while not on par with the Western Navies, the InN could at least give a run for their money. That outlook is why the professional submariners do not consider India to be a valid submarine force.

I really hate to say this but the world expects India to join the professional submarine force and that day is when India loses her 1st crew.

 

[zraver]

As an ex-tank man, you would know those above numbers mean squat, when most of the Chinese ships cant even bring up the Mission availability of the Indian Ships, Not to mention, most of those ships are not even Technically comparable whatever Sinodefence says, Indian Navy is just on a different Technological spectrum, All these access to Western Technology will not have a difference? It is impossible for the Chinese to match the Indians on Tech as of now.

We are not talking tanks but ships. They are vastly different. In a fleet engagement the fleets will trade missiles, probably in or near the confines of the Straits of Malacca. The Chinese missiles will work fine for ripping Indian vessels apart. Unlike tanks, there is no armor on a modern surface combatant. Indian missiles will likewise have a feild day killing PLAN ships but when its a numbers game, (more Chinese ships, more missiles) numbers win.

Can you please not count those Type 39 Romeo Class. Then I would have to count the Reserve Submarines and those Foxtrots. They are not sea worthy at all for any meaningful exercise.

The Romeos are type 33 and 35 not 39

type 39 Imageshack - type039song01large19df2jz9 - Uploaded by big_bunny
type 33 Imageshack - alaniaescu.jpg

Not even close to the same boat.

I was talking about long term IN ambitions, which is also in line with the Indian ambition. Dont expect the Indians to do a lackey role such as what JMDSF or RN. There is no catching up to USN in the next 50 years on a minimum for India or China.

Who expected India to be a lackey? Who thinks the RN is a lackey? While its true where the US goes, the UK usually follows and vice versa its not an absolute. The UK didn't follow us into Vietnam, and we didn't overtly join them vs Argentina. Only 1 country always follows the US and that is Australia (WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, GW1, Afghanistan, GW2).

I think India and the US are going to be allies and strategic partners. Long term its in both countries best interest and its a natural pairing.

 

[Adux]

We are not talking tanks but ships. They are vastly different. In a fleet engagement the fleets will trade missiles, probably in or near the confines of the Straits of Malacca. The Chinese missiles will work fine for ripping Indian vessels apart. Unlike tanks, there is no armor on a modern surface combatant. Indian missiles will likewise have a feild day killing PLAN ships but when its a numbers game, (more Chinese ships, more missiles) numbers win.

When you say confines of Malaaca Straits,its pratically turkey shoot for the Indians. Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

The Romeos are type 33 and 35 not 39

type 39

Sorry my mistake corrected, and though they are technically comparable to Indian sub, The chinese have those 636's which are definitly superior to the Indian Kilos

Who expected India to be a lackey? Who thinks the RN is a lackey? While its true where the US goes, the UK usually follows and vice versa its not an absolute. The UK didn't follow us into Vietnam, and we didn't overtly join them vs Argentina. Only 1 country always follows the US and that is Australia (WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, GW1, Afghanistan, GW2).

I think India and the US are going to be allies and strategic partners. Long term its in both countries best interest and its a natural pairing.

India and US are way too alike to be Allies, Both of us guard our national interest,and it is only but natural some of times ours collide. Climate Change for instance; Iraq war etc; Dominance over IOR, Pakistan, Iran etc.

 

[kuku]

A naval blockade on PRC can only be enforced if our ships are parked outside their ports. That is not going to happen, and no PRC ships are going to be parked outside our ports.

PRC submarines might come up and try to mine the ports though, we need to increase the ASW ability by many folds, most of the oil is coming from the sea route and that is only going to increase with time.

Some post back someone was talking about the lack of Aegis like ships in Indian Navy, the only use for such a ship till now could have been shooting birds, as no nation around India possesses an AF which requires that capability. Although with the whole carrier force and all we would need AAW ships, and the Kolkata class with its AESA multi functional radar, anti air missiles and computing power will be just the right ship for the task.

 

[kuku]

We are not talking tanks but ships. They are vastly different. In a fleet engagement the fleets will trade missiles, probably in or near the confines of the Straits of Malacca. The Chinese missiles will work fine for ripping Indian vessels apart. Unlike tanks, there is no armor on a modern surface combatant. Indian missiles will likewise have a feild day killing PLAN ships but when its a numbers game, (more Chinese ships, more missiles) numbers win.

That area is covered by the airforcea and naval air base in andaman, PRC might need more serious air support (intelligence, attack/fighter) based near by (Myanmar?)

I think India and the US are going to be allies and strategic partners. Long term its in both countries best interest and its a natural pairing.

USN has a very important role in the Indian Ocean region, as regional naval forces gain power USN should be the coordinating and stabilising power.

 

[hbogyt]

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[p2prada]

The MING and the KURSK were no accidents but a failure in procedures. No one told the Chinese crew to check the AIP switch, let alone the tripple check that is standard and no one told the programmers on the KURSK to tripple check the safety protocals.

Those of your Indian crews who have done the research know that such an "ACCIDENT" is coming and there is nothing they can do to prevent it ... and frankly, it may not be worthwhile.

The Chinese no longer assumes their crews are smart enough to avoid the most obvious of mistakes. In fact, they now assume that their crews are too stupid to recognize the hazzard and now demands ALL safety procedures to be observed.

Compare that to the cultural outlook that this forum presents. This forum assumes that while not on par with the Western Navies, the InN could at least give a run for their money. That outlook is why the professional submariners do not consider India to be a valid submarine force.

I really hate to say this but the world expects India to join the professional submarine force and that day is when India loses her 1st crew.

I understand. What you say makes sense? It took the death of friends to make others understand the value of diving driving slowly and carefully.

I really hate to say this but the world expects India to join the professional submarine force and that day is when India loses her 1st crew.

I beg to differ on this view. It may take an accident to reinforce your belief. But, in my view, 40 years of operating submarines without losing even one goes on to show that we are doing what we can. We don't need others to decide if we are professional or not.

Our nation has been in a state of war(even if hypothetical) the last 20-30 years. I am confident our Navy do follow the required procedures and will follow them for as long as our Navy exists.

We learn from your experiences and mistakes too along with our own. We are not blind to sense.

That outlook is why the professional submariners do not consider India to be a valid submarine force.

Shame on them for trying to enforce their beliefs on us. It is prejudiced.

"I sank my sub, so you need to sink your sub to be a professional."

From this post I am assuming that you are assuming way too much into what we can do or what we cannot. An accident is always waiting to happen, that's why its called "Accident." Sinking our sub by accident once will in no way prove anything except that some guy goofed up. It does not have to mean such a loss will make us more professional.

So, let me assume something. Let's assume that IN builds a 100 submarines by 2050 and go on to operate subs till the end of 2150 without a single "accident." Will this still mean IN is not a professional Submarine Force?

We can be as professional as we have to by following all the protocols as dictated. IN has not let us down till date. So, I am not going to sit around and wait for an accident to make us a professional force. I hope IN will redefine your definition of professional.

Regards.

 

[Sabir]

Does China or Pakistan have no battleship? Sinking some of them would be a better way to show professionalism.

 

[zraver]

A naval blockade on PRC can only be enforced if our ships are parked outside their ports. That is not going to happen, and no PRC ships are going to be parked outside our ports.

Not quite true, if India is willing to risk US/Euro displeasure or if they give India the nod and say its none of their business. The IN can cripple the PRC via its control of the Indian ocean and thus the super tanker routes that carry China's life blood (oil) to her.

Some post back someone was talking about the lack of Aegis like ships in Indian Navy, the only use for such a ship till now could have been shooting birds, as no nation around India possesses an AF which requires that capability. Although with the whole carrier force and all we would need AAW ships, and the Kolkata class with its AESA multi functional radar, anti air missiles and computing power will be just the right ship for the task.

Aegis is probably the best battle management system afloat. Not just for anti-air war, but also for surface, anti-sea skimming missile, BMD and now space engagements as well.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

We can be as professional as we have to by following all the protocols as dictated. IN has not let us down till date. So, I am not going to sit around and wait for an accident to make us a professional force. I hope IN will redefine your definition of professional.

And you are showing the exact attitude that most submariners dread. A good friend of mine said this is hubris and there is no cure for hubris except to suffer its consequences.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Not quite true, if India is willing to risk US/Euro displeasure or if they give India the nod and say its none of their business. The IN can cripple the PRC via its control of the Indian ocean and thus the super tanker routes that carry China's life blood (oil) to her.

We've talked this over at WAB. The Chinese have an extremely cheap solution. Use Russian tankers/freighters.

Not everything requires a military solution, people.

 

[zraver]

We've talked this over at WAB. The Chinese have an extremely cheap solution. Use Russian tankers/freighters.

Not everything requires a military solution, people.

The laws of naval warfare allow belligerents to stop and verify the cargo and destination of neutrals. I posted them over at WAB.

 

[Ray]

Who will rule the Indian Ocean?

India does not have the capability yet to do so, and not by any far cry, China as she does not possess the assets to do so. India, how can act as very potent incremental force.

To ‘rule’, the Indian Ocean, the following choke points have to be controlled:

Bab el Mandeb
Straits of Hormuz
Straits of Malacca
Cape of Good Hope.

In addition, there has to be enough assets within the Indian Ocean to dominate incursion that may have escaped the naval gauntlet and monitor militarily commercial traffic that may still be operating, for instance to Gwadar and thence to China via the KKH and the pipeline.

The only Navy close to being capable is the US Navy. However, for the US, in a war scenario, it is not merely that she dominates the IOR but also the Atlantic and Pacific as also guard both her western and eastern seaboards and have assets close to the Chinese and Russian coasts and interests. There are not enough assets to spread around to ‘dominate’ since they will be contested. The assets of the western navies are not much of significance. Adm. Mike Mullen came up with the theory that to cover all bases the US needs both large and small capability, all over the world, it was not feasible. He admits that is a capability that the US does not have.


It is for this very reason that the US is building close ‘strategic relationship’ with foreign navies, importantly, with India, which till late did not have a close relationship with the US.

The ‘domination aspect envisages forward presence, deterrence, sea control, and power projection as essential.

It is interesting to note that given the modern circumstances, the US Navy is constructing a whole new type of ship that perfectly matches the requirements of a changed maritime strategy: The Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). LCS 1, the USS Freedom, has already been commissioned, and provides for a revolutionary flexibility. Besides a gun up forward and a missile launcher aft, the ship provides for a large space or volume inside that can be filled with different ‘boxes’. These box modules can contain a vast variety of different capabilities, just as required by the mission of the ship, and can be set up inside the ship independently. The modules can be changed in less than 72 hours without the need of an improved port. LCS-class ships have a maximum speed of 50 knots and a crew of only 40 men (plus respective stuff to operate the different modules). Its three main purposes are anti submarine warfare, anti surface warfare, and mine countermeasures. It uses unmanned systems to an extend that exceeds all other ships of the United States Navy.

The Chinese are fast expanding their Navy. The Russians are said to be working quietly to increase her naval assets and so is India.

Who will rule the IOR? No one, unless one ‘coalition’ works in tandem, complementing each other.

For obvious reasons, China will be out of the loop and fending for itself to pursue her global ambitions.

Russia will not help China in case of a conflict since China is taken to be a competitor who has usurped her position in the world order. Russia would prefer that the US and China battle it out and does as much damage to each other, while she sits pretty and gains in strength causative of the damage the US and China does to each other!

 

[Officer of Engineers]

The laws of naval warfare allow belligerents to stop and verify the cargo and destination of neutrals. I posted them over at WAB.

The question still remains is that would India dare to confiscate cargo bearing the Russian Flag.