Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Cheepek]

 

[another_armchair]

Rumors only. If there was this much of Oil, then even Congress Govt would have started its extraction.

Even Imran Khan boasted of discovery of Oil in shores near Pak borders. But it was all fake news.

However, it was really claimed that Krishna-Godavari complex has world's largest Gas Reserves of the world when the field was first found.
But this did not turn out to be true.

Nobody knows for sure what is the actual quantity sitting there.

RIL-BP increased production substantially in 2023 and it will meet 23% of India's gas demand.

RIL-BP to commence gas production from MJ block

With the commissioning of the field, the overall gas output from RIL’s assets in the KG Basin will increase by about two-thirds

www.telegraphindia.com

 

[Haldilal]

Wo uski apni Safari hai

Ya'll Nibbiars

The BPCL approves The Rasayani, Mumbai POL Storage 489 crore Mumbai.

 

[another_armchair]

India's gas output to jump 52% by 2024 led by ONGC, Reliance-BP

Natural gas production in 2019-20 was 85 mmscmd, which is estimated to have fallen to 80 mmscmd in the following year, HDFC Securities said in a report

www.livemint.com

India's natural gas production is projected to jump by 52 per cent to 122 million standard cubic metres per day by 2024 as state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Reliance Industries Ltd-BP combine raise output from the KG basin fields.

 

[Abbey]

Vodafone to ONDC to BharOS, how govt is empowering small businesses and breaking duopolies

Food delivery and e-commerce are two sectors where the government has created an indirect mechanism to stop the duopoly system, without clipping the wings of the giants.

theprint.in

There are a number of consumer-centric industries in India that have developed into duopolies. In many of them, the government is directly or indirectly breaking the hold of the top two companies. What is even more welcome is that it is doing this by empowering new entrants rather than laying constraints on incumbent giants. An emerging yet effective tool towards this is the Open Network for Digital Commerce, or ONDC.


Formal duopolies–where two companies control all of the supply in a market–won’t be created thanks to the vigilance of the Competition Commission of India. However, there are industries such as transport, telecom, e-commerce, and other highly consumer-focussed sectors where two companies are currently acquiring overwhelming market share.

This is not unexpected. Indeed, it’s not even unwelcome. India needs big companies in each sector. This is why the government’s approach — to empower other, smaller entrants rather than clip the wings of the giants — is a welcome one.

Two of the most visible sectors, as far as customers are concerned, are food delivery and e-commerce. While Swiggy and Zomato dominate the former, Amazon and Flipkart rule the latter. Food delivery and e-commerce are prime examples of sectors where the government has indirectly created a mechanism to break the dominance of the two incumbents.

The ONDC platform, set up in December last year by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, allows sellers and buyers to directly communicate with each other. Recently, ONDC has been creating waves by gradually emerging as an alternative to Swiggy and Zomato in the food delivery space.

The dominance of these two food delivery apps, and the fact that they use their own delivery drivers, has allowed them to impose high commissions on restaurants using their platforms, something that the restaurant owners have been protesting against. And while several restaurants in India’s metros opted out of these platforms, they eventually returned for the extensive reach and accessibility offered by these two platforms.

ONDC, although still nascent, can be a potential alternative for restaurants in bypassing the food delivery apps. Restaurants will have to organise their own delivery, but the ONDC facilitates this as well. And the restaurants are free to negotiate better deals with companies like Dunzo, Shiprocket, or Loadshare that can deliver the food for them. If this takes off, it could also increase competition in the delivery space as well, further allowing restaurants to negotiate more effectively. In all of this, customers stand to benefit.

The ONDC platform stands to do the same for the e-commerce space as well. At the moment, a consumer looking for a product on Amazon or Flipkart can choose from only those items that are available on these platforms. Once ONDC is adopted widely, consumers will have access to products across platforms, thereby giving them more choice in terms of products as well as prices.

Amazon and Flipkart haven’t signed on to ONDC yet, but there is considerable unofficial pressure from the government to join

 

[Abbey]

Vodafone to ONDC to BharOS, how govt is empowering small businesses and breaking duopolies

Food delivery and e-commerce are two sectors where the government has created an indirect mechanism to stop the duopoly system, without clipping the wings of the giants.

theprint.in

There are a number of consumer-centric industries in India that have developed into duopolies. In many of them, the government is directly or indirectly breaking the hold of the top two companies. What is even more welcome is that it is doing this by empowering new entrants rather than laying constraints on incumbent giants. An emerging yet effective tool towards this is the Open Network for Digital Commerce, or ONDC.


Formal duopolies–where two companies control all of the supply in a market–won’t be created thanks to the vigilance of the Competition Commission of India. However, there are industries such as transport, telecom, e-commerce, and other highly consumer-focussed sectors where two companies are currently acquiring overwhelming market share.

This is not unexpected. Indeed, it’s not even unwelcome. India needs big companies in each sector. This is why the government’s approach — to empower other, smaller entrants rather than clip the wings of the giants — is a welcome one.

Two of the most visible sectors, as far as customers are concerned, are food delivery and e-commerce. While Swiggy and Zomato dominate the former, Amazon and Flipkart rule the latter. Food delivery and e-commerce are prime examples of sectors where the government has indirectly created a mechanism to break the dominance of the two incumbents.

The ONDC platform, set up in December last year by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, allows sellers and buyers to directly communicate with each other. Recently, ONDC has been creating waves by gradually emerging as an alternative to Swiggy and Zomato in the food delivery space.

The dominance of these two food delivery apps, and the fact that they use their own delivery drivers, has allowed them to impose high commissions on restaurants using their platforms, something that the restaurant owners have been protesting against. And while several restaurants in India’s metros opted out of these platforms, they eventually returned for the extensive reach and accessibility offered by these two platforms.

ONDC, although still nascent, can be a potential alternative for restaurants in bypassing the food delivery apps. Restaurants will have to organise their own delivery, but the ONDC facilitates this as well. And the restaurants are free to negotiate better deals with companies like Dunzo, Shiprocket, or Loadshare that can deliver the food for them. If this takes off, it could also increase competition in the delivery space as well, further allowing restaurants to negotiate more effectively. In all of this, customers stand to benefit.

The ONDC platform stands to do the same for the e-commerce space as well. At the moment, a consumer looking for a product on Amazon or Flipkart can choose from only those items that are available on these platforms. Once ONDC is adopted widely, consumers will have access to products across platforms, thereby giving them more choice in terms of products as well as prices.

Amazon and Flipkart haven’t signed on to ONDC yet, but there is considerable unofficial pressure from the government to join

A road to democratisation
While the government has only laid the groundwork for increased competition in food delivery and e-commerce sectors, without entering the market itself, for smartphone operating systems, it is taking a somewhat more direct approach.

At the moment, the dominance of Apple’s iOS platform and Google’s Android OS is nearly absolute. This has allowed them to set the terms of the agreement with app developers. In October last year, the Competition Commission of India ordered Google to allow users to delete pre-installed apps, revealing a major way Google was stifling competition.

Now, a new ‘indigenous’ mobile operating system, BharOS, has been developed by JandK Operations Private Limited (JandKops), a non-profit organisation incubated at IIT Madras. While the government wasn’t directly involved in the development of BharOS, its support is evident in the fact that Union Ministers Ashwini Vaishnaw and Dharmendra Pradhan launched the mobile operating system and have been vocal cheerleaders.

Although Bharat OS is based on Android, it incorporates features that increase competition among app developers and provide consumers with more choice. In BharOS, no apps will be pre-loaded, allowing consumers to download exactly the ones they want, and allowing app developers to thus compete on a level-playing field.

It will be a mammoth task to make inroads into either Google’s or Apple’s market shares, but it’s good to see the government trying nevertheless.

If you want to see even more direct government involvement in increasing competition in a sector, look no further than telecom. The merger of Vodafone and Idea was meant to create a behemoth that could hold its own against Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. This did not come to pass.

Instead, Vodafone Idea came close to bankruptcy, and has survived only because the government agreed to convert its dues into equity. In essence, the government secured the survival of the telecom industry’s sole viable third player by acquiring a one-third stake in it.

The government’s overall approach is right. Rather than exerting control through the Competition Commission of India and thereby deterring companies from doing business and expanding, the government has instead taken a more light-touch approach by creating an environment that fosters competition.

For example, there are a few other sectors where duopolies are emerging, but where the government won’t take action, and rightly so. In civil aviation, the combined market share of Indigo and the Tata-owned airlines came to a little more than 80 per cent in the January-March 2023 quarter. Given Go First’s current troubles, this combined market share will likely increase further soon. The only way the government can address this is by entering the aviation sector once again, a laughable notion given how desperate it was to exit it.

When it comes to ride-hailing apps, Uber and Ola are similarly dominant. Here, too, it’s highly unlikely the government will do anything to break this hold. Consumers’ hopes lie with newer entrants like BluSmart, which has gained from the government’s renewable energy push.

And this is how it should be. This approach fosters competition by reducing entry barriers and creating new opportunities rather than curtailing the legally dominant players. This increases the size of the pie instead of simply redistributing the slices.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars The LurkerBaba is busy creating the Swastika Village.

 

[iBaaz]

A road to democratisation
While the government has only laid the groundwork for increased competition in food delivery and e-commerce sectors, without entering the market itself, for smartphone operating systems, it is taking a somewhat more direct approach.

At the moment, the dominance of Apple’s iOS platform and Google’s Android OS is nearly absolute. This has allowed them to set the terms of the agreement with app developers. In October last year, the Competition Commission of India ordered Google to allow users to delete pre-installed apps, revealing a major way Google was stifling competition.

Now, a new ‘indigenous’ mobile operating system, BharOS, has been developed by JandK Operations Private Limited (JandKops), a non-profit organisation incubated at IIT Madras. While the government wasn’t directly involved in the development of BharOS, its support is evident in the fact that Union Ministers Ashwini Vaishnaw and Dharmendra Pradhan launched the mobile operating system and have been vocal cheerleaders.

Although Bharat OS is based on Android, it incorporates features that increase competition among app developers and provide consumers with more choice. In BharOS, no apps will be pre-loaded, allowing consumers to download exactly the ones they want, and allowing app developers to thus compete on a level-playing field.

It will be a mammoth task to make inroads into either Google’s or Apple’s market shares, but it’s good to see the government trying nevertheless.

If you want to see even more direct government involvement in increasing competition in a sector, look no further than telecom. The merger of Vodafone and Idea was meant to create a behemoth that could hold its own against Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. This did not come to pass.

Instead, Vodafone Idea came close to bankruptcy, and has survived only because the government agreed to convert its dues into equity. In essence, the government secured the survival of the telecom industry’s sole viable third player by acquiring a one-third stake in it.

The government’s overall approach is right. Rather than exerting control through the Competition Commission of India and thereby deterring companies from doing business and expanding, the government has instead taken a more light-touch approach by creating an environment that fosters competition.

For example, there are a few other sectors where duopolies are emerging, but where the government won’t take action, and rightly so. In civil aviation, the combined market share of Indigo and the Tata-owned airlines came to a little more than 80 per cent in the January-March 2023 quarter. Given Go First’s current troubles, this combined market share will likely increase further soon. The only way the government can address this is by entering the aviation sector once again, a laughable notion given how desperate it was to exit it.

When it comes to ride-hailing apps, Uber and Ola are similarly dominant. Here, too, it’s highly unlikely the government will do anything to break this hold. Consumers’ hopes lie with newer entrants like BluSmart, which has gained from the government’s renewable energy push.

And this is how it should be. This approach fosters competition by reducing entry barriers and creating new opportunities rather than curtailing the legally dominant players. This increases the size of the pie instead of simply redistributing the slices.

They should let Android and iOS be what they are, and regulate them so that it's beneficial for the customer but dont over-regulate that it becomes suffocating. Having duopolies in some places is a good thing, eases of burden for developers and BharOS if it wants to be useful it will have to go to Google for its GMS otherwise there exist multiple Indian and non-Indian forks of Android that focus on privacy and are open source.

 

[Sayman Ame]

Does anyone know about the status of oil in the Andamans? I remember reading an article few years ago that there were supposedly billions of barrels of crude in there. The ocean around Andaman and Nicobar Islands falls under the 60,000 Km subduction zone of Indo-Australian plates; and subduction zones in general are a huge potential for crude oil.

Is there a possibility of vast unexplored oil reserves in India?

While India imports whopping amounts of crude oil & natural gas to meet her domestic fuel demand by paying thousands of crores to West Asian Nations, Indonesia is benefiting its national economy by extracting the oil & natural gas reserves present in the Andaman & Nicobar region, entirely due to our

www.linkedin.com

True. The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons also posits that the area around A&N a category-II sedimentary basin (which means it definitely has oil, but commercial exploitation is yet to be carried out). Unless we can know what the security and geopolitical considerations are on the GoI's end, I don't think we'll be able to know why commercial angle of this has been kept at abeyance.

Here's a map published by the DGH , look at the expanse around the A&N

 

[notaname]

For reference.

@ezsasa
_____________

India EU Trade and Tech council meet is a "significant milestone", says EAM Jaishankar. Calls for "de risking global economy..ensuring trust, transparency in digital domain"

 

[blackleaf]

if exports in certain categories are decreasing without any tariffwars running in parallel, isn't it usually a sign of reduction of buying power in those categories in importing countries?

I'm hoping for us to get some of the labour intensive manufacturing out of China. Maybe even get some of the textile manufacturing out of Bangladesh when Bangladesh loses duty free access to the European market.

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

True. The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons also posits that the area around A&N a category-II sedimentary basin (which means it definitely has oil, but commercial exploitation is yet to be carried out). Unless we can know what the security and geopolitical considerations are on the GoI's end, I don't think we'll be able to know why commercial angle of this has been kept at abeyance.

Here's a map published by the DGH , look at the expanse around the A&N
View attachment 205369

If we had oil and gas in large amounts, we would have found it a long time ago. We import 200 billion of oil, that alone would push any government to excavate oil from all possible sites. The real answer is we simply are not blessed with oil/gas and whatever we will find even in the future, it will be a marginal find, nothing groundbreaking.

 

[Sayman Ame]

If we had oil and gas in large amounts, we would have found it a long time ago. We import 200 billion of oil, that alone would push any government to excavate oil from all possible sites. The real answer is we simply are not blessed with oil/gas and whatever we will find even in the future, it will be a marginal find, nothing groundbreaking.

But that goes against what's evident from the geological formation and analysis of the fact. There are self-imposed hindrances to such exploitation of sites; The Forest Conservation Act is one such example, and to overcome this there's a proposal to amend this as follows in the Article :

Proposed change to forest law will boost oil exploration - The Economic Times

India's hydrocarbon exploration could be boosted by a proposal to amend the forest conservation law.The Forest (Conservation) Amendment Bill envisages seismic surveys would not be treated as a non-forest activity but explorers would be granted prompt access to forests, cutting time-consuming...

m.economictimes.com

In March, the government introduced The Forest (Conservation) Amendment Bill in Lok Sabha, which aims to exempt certain categories of land from the purview of the current law and widen the list of activities that could be carried out on forest land. The bill aims to stop treating seismic surveys as a non-forest activity.

And also, the "marginal" find is not due to lack of oil per se, but the fact that we are economically and technologically constrained. The area around Gujarat bays also have substantial oil, but the depth goes beyond 3000m, which becomes a costly affair. But the area around A&N shouldn't be a headache, going by how Thailand, Myanmar and even Indonesia have exploited from the same Indo-Australian anticline. It's probably something more than what meets the eye.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Looks great for the price

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

But that goes against what's evident from the geological formation and analysis of the fact. There are self-imposed hindrances to such exploitation of sites; The Forest Conservation Act is one such example, and to overcome this there's a proposal to amend this as follows in the Article :

Proposed change to forest law will boost oil exploration - The Economic Times

India's hydrocarbon exploration could be boosted by a proposal to amend the forest conservation law.The Forest (Conservation) Amendment Bill envisages seismic surveys would not be treated as a non-forest activity but explorers would be granted prompt access to forests, cutting time-consuming...

m.economictimes.com

And also, the "marginal" find is not due to lack of oil per se, but the fact that we are economically and technologically constrained. The area around Gujarat bays also have substantial oil, but the depth goes beyond 3000m, which becomes a costly affair. But the area around A&N shouldn't be a headache, going by how Thailand, Myanmar and even Indonesia have exploited from the same Indo-Australian anticline. It's probably something more than what meets the eye.

I don't think technology would be a main constraint. If we wanted oil from these areas we could have easily invited Shell/Exxon to mine it for us, they have the experience to mine in every biome of the world. Almost every country does it. It would be far more beneficial for us than importing $100s billion oil/gas. With all evidences, all we can say is 'no substantial fossil' is our Occam's razor.

 

[Sayman Ame]

I don't think technology would be a main constraint. If we wanted oil from these areas we could have easily invited Shell/Exxon to mine it for us, they have the experience to mine in every biome of the world. Almost every country does it. It would be far more beneficial for us than importing $100s billion oil/gas. With all evidences, all we can say is 'no substantial fossil' is our Occam's razor.

Indeed. But aren't they here because it's unfeasible/because there's no oil substantially, or is it because of those policy designs again? (to put it pejoratively - "it's always them"). Here's what Exxon had to say about Indian entry :

Energy giant ExxonMobil keen on India, seeks legal shield

"What we are looking to do in the Indian upstream is to move from 'very interested' to 'committed'," Monte Dobson, lead country manager-South Asia at ExxonMobil, told ET in an interview. "We expect 2023 to be a pivotal year for our India plans."

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Dobson said Exxon possesses the right technology and the experience needed for the Indian conditions. “The type of geology we have seen here is the same as in Guyana,” he said.

And we know how Guyana is flush with oil monies now.

So back to the policy front :

“India should offer globally competitive fiscals, enable those to stay intact, provide protection against expropriation, and neutral arbitration,” said Dobson.

“The fiscal regime available to some of the exploration areas in the country is yet to become globally competitive,” said Dobson, adding that the global capital available for exploration is limited and that it “would go to a place around the globe that offers the best returns and protection to investments”.

- "it's always them!" (Goddamn babus!. But to be fair to the Babus, these monsters from Oil Inc. are no saints either!)

 

[SKC]

 

[another_armchair]

For reference.

@ezsasa
_____________

India EU Trade and Tech council meet is a "significant milestone", says EAM Jaishankar. Calls for "de risking global economy..ensuring trust, transparency in digital domain"

Explains the recent RR, sabre rattling & threats over Indian petroleum products extracted from Russian crude and exported to EU.

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

Indeed. But aren't they here because it's unfeasible/because there's no oil substantially, or is it because of those policy designs again? (to put it pejoratively - "it's always them"). Here's what Exxon had to say about Indian entry :

Energy giant ExxonMobil keen on India, seeks legal shield

"What we are looking to do in the Indian upstream is to move from 'very interested' to 'committed'," Monte Dobson, lead country manager-South Asia at ExxonMobil, told ET in an interview. "We expect 2023 to be a pivotal year for our India plans."

economictimes.indiatimes.com

And we know how Guyana is flush with oil monies now.

So back to the policy front :

- "it's always them!" (Goddamn babus!. But to be fair to the Babus, these monsters from Oil Inc. are no saints either!)

If you had found substantial oil anywhere on Indian soil/water, we would have excavated it. No enviromental laws or Babus or NGOs would have prevented it. National enegy security dwarfs every other 'issues'. We simply don't have in economically feasible way. Any other explanation is just Khayali Pulao.

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

Excerpted from HSBC report:

Excerpted from Morgan Stanley Report:

Excerpted from Jefferies Report: