Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[nongaddarliberal]

There is visible correlation between infant health indicators and future economic growth - the attached paper, for instance, studies the effect of stunting on long term economic growth in Indonesia. Heck, a few African nations are estimated to lose some ~4-5% of their GDP (annually) due to malnourishment (stunting prevalence of 50%+, as claimed by the NFHS surveys back in the '90s, is comparable with Sub Saharan Africa - perhaps even worse) and none of these nations are expected to experience sustained 7-8% growth anytime soon. Not to forget that 8%+ in 2023 is already pretty damn good and at the risk of sounding overly simplistic - possibly equivalent to managing 9-10% in the 2000s or the cold war era. And if the claims of the NFHS were true this trend would actually fly in the face of the previous Asian miracle economies - all of whom had achieved remarkable improvement across all the infant health indicators before embarking on their high growth phase.

That correlation will be strong for smaller and more homogenous countries. India in 1991 already had a massive lower middle class that could take care of its basic needs. It's the children of that lower middle class that today are leading the economic growth through IT, Finance, Manufacturing, hospitality industry etc. On top of this were already existing institutions like IIT's which these African countries didn't have.

The countries for which this correlation applies were those that had no base of educated and moderately well off people in the first place.

 

[angryIndian]

Of course anyone that doesn't get enough to eat may die bcos of starvation and develop deficiencies but anyone that gets 2 meals or even one good meal a day is at no risk and nothing to do with intelligence

Malnutrition is caused not only by a lack of food but also by an imbalanced diet.

A person who eats nothing but meat can also die of malnutrition because meat has no carbohydrates and essential fats required for healthy sustenance.

In India malnutrition is primarily caused by an imbalanced diet. Indian PDS gives only rice,sugar and flour which is not enough to meet the daily nutritional intake of an average person.

.

 

[Crazywithmath]

That correlation will be strong for smaller and more homogenous countries. India in 1991 already had a massive lower middle class that could take care of its basic needs. It's the children of that lower middle class that today are leading the economic growth through IT, Finance, Manufacturing, hospitality industry etc. On top of this were already existing institutions like IIT's which these African countries didn't have.

The countries for which this correlation applies were those that had no base of educated and moderately well off people in the first place.

I have never come across a hypothesis like that so can't really comment but will you be convinced by the experience of Japan (the OG industrial powerhouse of Asia in an era when british India was a distant second)?

Notice the dramatic fall in stunting in the years leading up to their high growth era.

Anyways, the NFHS is a total piece of crap and even the members of the EAC admit as much - very little can be achieved by accepting its findings at face value.

 

[ezsasa]

I have never come across a hypothesis like that so can't really comment but will you be convinced by the experience of Japan (the OG industrial powerhouse of Asia in an era when british India was a distant second)? View attachment 244931

Notice the dramatic fall in stunting in the years leading up to their high growth era.

Anyways, the NFHS is a total piece of crap and even the members of the EAC admit as much - very little can be achieved by accepting its findings at face value.

in continuation of our convo.

there's one more observation that needs to be taken into account, there are families in this country where the fertile female produces atleast half a cricket team in a short span of time, what ever percentage this category produces, we have to assume it is a permanent feature. repeated pregnancy does have an impact on stunting.

 

[Crazywithmath]

in continuation of our convo.

there's one more observation that needs to be taken into account, there are families in this country where the fertile female produces atleast half a cricket team in a short span of time, what ever percentage this category produces, we have to assume it is a permanent feature. repeated pregnancy does have an impact on stunting.

Repeated (and possibly unintended) pregnancy in a short span of time is rare in today's India - even among the poorest of muslims . If you are talking historical trends then again, that's not too different from post world war era Japan and Korea. Korea, in particular, had close to 1.5 lakh comfort women (official estimates; the unofficial estimates are much much higher) - many of whom would go on to give births to heavily stunted children throughout the '40s (comfort stations mandated the usage of protections officially but in practice, rarely enforced).

 

[omaebakabaka]

Malnutrition is caused not only by a lack of food but also by an imbalanced diet.

A person who eats nothing but meat can also die of malnutrition because meat has no carbohydrates and essential fats required for healthy sustenance.

In India malnutrition is primarily caused by an imbalanced diet. Indian PDS gives only rice,sugar and flour which is not enough to meet the daily nutritional intake of an average person.

.

What are you peddling, you want to everyone to walk around with intake calculator or Indian food is not balanced? When you follow Western nonsense of packaged food and other shit, you will die of brain dumbness and cancer. Indian food is presribed as per ayurveda including portions and composition of which fasting is also prescribed.

People have to be dumb and blind to see how bad western diet is, pigs shouldn't Even touch it. Use common sense please

 

[omaebakabaka]

Repeated (and possibly unintended) pregnancy in a short span of time is rare in today's India - even among the poorest of muslims . If you are talking historical trends then again, that's not too different from post world war era Japan and Korea. Korea, in particular, had close to 1.5 lakh comfort women (official estimates; the unofficial estimates are much much higher) - many of whom would go on to give births to heavily stunted children throughout the '40s (comfort stations mandated the usage of protections officially but in practice, rarely enforced).

Dude, give it a break and stop peddling the Western balanced diet gospel. Everyday there is a new fad study, follow ayurveda and you may have a chance or keep looking at the back of package at nutrition table and end up over eating. It's a joke not to mention the scam they pulled on the world with their science

 

[Crazywithmath]

Dude, give it a break and stop peddling the Western balanced diet gospel. Everyday there is a new fad study, follow ayurveda and you may have a chance or keep looking at the back of package at nutrition table and end up over eating. It's a joke not to mention the scam they pulled on the world with their science

I have not written a fucking sentence on balanced diet and shiet (these are all social science voodoo anyway and their claims are difficult to model mathematically - hence, not interested). In fact, because of my limited understanding of econometrics I don't comment on hardcore econ models/claims either. Why on earth do you feel so agitated?

 

[Crazywithmath]

Nice

 

[omaebakabaka]

I have not written a fucking sentence on balanced diet and shiet (these are all social science voodoo anyway and their claims are difficult to model mathematically - hence, not interested). In fact, because of my limited understanding of econometrics I don't comment on hardcore econ models/claims either. Why on earth do you feel so agitated?

All theories from West regarding life styles, humanities can be discarded safely as they come with a unscientific agenda. There is no proof that western over nutrition or superior food diet is generating intelligent people and evidence is contrary. Look at their black population and their productivity or the aggressiveness in human to human interaction, what you put in your body makes you that.

Malnutrition is a problem if poverty of extreme nature but rest all in India is not following ayur sciences, eating meat was also prescribed based on what you're day job is, not because you like Chicken tandoori

Nothing personal. This whole diet science is scam, only dumb wits accept a new study everyday. As a engineer I studied many correlations and these studies are output of bias and agenda

 

[FalconSlayers]

Expect to have over 50 World Trade Centers in India in next 5-7 years: Chairman John E. Drew

WTCA's strategic expansion in India, driven by quality reputation and economic growth, positions the brand for further success. The global office market faces shifts post-pandemic, with varying impacts across regions as companies navigate remote work trends.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Power demand to grow 8-9% in India, capacity will grow, but cost will fall from 2030: Praveer Sinha, Tata Power

Praveer Sinha discusses challenges in the power sector, emphasizing the upcoming reduction in power costs by 2027-2030. He underscores the crucial role of battery storage in the transition to clean energy for reliable 24x7 power availability. Sinha says energy transition is a big thing because...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Cheepek]

1% growth

 

[FalconSlayers]

1% growth

Still a big achievement given shrinking global trade. China exports reduced in the same fiscal.

 

[karn]

Still a big achievement given shrinking global trade. China exports reduced in the same fiscal.

Exports of petroleum products has also collapsed due to red sea shenanigans.

 

[ezsasa]

Exports of petroleum products has also collapsed due to red sea shenanigans.

if a cargo vessel is taking a longer route for a payment that is supposed to come in mar, and it comes in apr . where is this revenue shown, in current fiscal or next one?

 

[nongaddarliberal]

I have never come across a hypothesis like that so can't really comment but will you be convinced by the experience of Japan (the OG industrial powerhouse of Asia in an era when british India was a distant second)? View attachment 244931

Notice the dramatic fall in stunting in the years leading up to their high growth era.

Anyways, the NFHS is a total piece of crap and even the members of the EAC admit as much - very little can be achieved by accepting its findings at face value.

Japan went through its Meiji restoration from 1870-1900 when it dramatically industrialized, modernized its entire system, and matched western industry all the way from an agrarian society. During this time, they had a very high percentage of stunting and malnutrition, but achieved very high growth. That chart shows it.

Japan's later growth you're referring to is their post war growth, where they made their population genuinely middle class using the knowledge they already gained from their previous industrialization phase.

So this chart proves my point that you can have high growth while a large percent of your population unfortunately lacks proper nutrition. Post 1991 is India's first industrialization attempt where you can have high growth with just building up infrastructure and freeing the economy. Of course nutrition should be ensured if we want to reach upper middle income.

 

[another_armchair]

I dont see a contradiction between high stunting in 90s kids and 8% growth today. The construction workers I see up north are very visibly stunted, yet are able to slog it out in the sun doing heavy labour (I personally don't like seeing their conditions). As far as IT and other sectors requiring education go, 90% of that work force are from families that were already middle class in the 80s-90s. Not necessarily upper middle class with cars and expensive schools, but their parents were able to provide at least decent nutrition, housing and higher education. I haven't met a single person in todays professional middle class who used to be a child labourer or who used to go hungry. Which is actually sad. It is only over the past 10 years that I'm seeing some level of actual poverty removal, where many people who were genuinely impoverished are now able to make a 25k-50k living.

Happened to meet a cousin's colleague(a consultant) who belonged to a family of traditional fishermen on the east coast. He was the only guy from his village who ever made it to an engineering college, worked his ass off, learned the skills needed to join the Big-4... is really good at what he does.

^That and another example apart, I haven't come across any white collar worker who did not study in an english medium school though his/her parents may have belonged to a humble background.

Good thing about KV's are the unit co's child and the sweeper's child can be bench mates in school but you won't find this in rural/semi-rural India where caste/hierarchy lines are strictly drawn even in educational institutions.

 

[Crazywithmath]

Japan went through its Meiji restoration from 1870-1900 when it dramatically industrialized, modernized its entire system, and matched western industry all the way from an agrarian society. During this time, they had a very high percentage of stunting and malnutrition, but achieved very high growth. That chart shows it.

Japan's later growth you're referring to is their post war growth, where they made their population genuinely middle class using the knowledge they already gained from their previous industrialization phase.

So this chart proves my point that you can have high growth while a large percent of your population unfortunately lacks proper nutrition. Post 1991 is India's first industrialization attempt where you can have high growth with just building up infrastructure and freeing the economy. Of course nutrition should be ensured if we want to reach upper middle income.

Japan's economic performance (between 1900-1930s) looks great when compared with the rest of Asia only; it was bang average by today's standards and easily dwarfed by their post world war boom.

Doubling of GDPPC over a course of some ~40 years (between 1900 and the wartime period) is nothing extraordinary by today's standards (even though absolutely stunning when compared with other Asian nations of that era; most of whom were colonized). Not to forget the multiple bubble bursts, crises (among them a total collapse of the banking sector) and persistent exchange rate volatility they had to encounter in the run up to the world war ll. It was not until the late 1950s before they entered the true miracle growth era.

There is simply no precedent of a nation experiencing sustained high economic growth without significantly improving its human capital (which includes infant health, of course); even at a low base. And you wouldn't even argue otherwise if the GoI data were a little less corrupted.

Anyways, I understand this conversation is going nowehere so let us just agree to disagree.

 

[another_armchair]

Malnutrition is caused not only by a lack of food but also by an imbalanced diet.

A person who eats nothing but meat can also die of malnutrition because meat has no carbohydrates and essential fats required for healthy sustenance.

In India malnutrition is primarily caused by an imbalanced diet. Indian PDS gives only rice,sugar and flour which is not enough to meet the daily nutritional intake of an average person.

.

Indian PDS also gives lentils, gram & cooking oil. Varies from state to state.

Can't distribute perishables like meat, poultry, fish, dairy etc under PDS without running into wastage/storage issues particularly in rural/semi-rural areas.

 

[another_armchair]

The statistics of stunting, hunger, malnutrition etc don't apply to any of the members who post here so it is understandable for them to feel indignant or dismayed over the 'false' reporting.

Most of these figures relate to rural India where bulk of our population resides.

If you have stepped out of your comfort zone and gone beyond 'tourist' areas, then it would be safe to assume a good part of rural India in several states is shamefully poor and undernourished. Honestly speaking, I'd rope myself than live through that drudgery every day of my life and it exists to this day. .. and those figures are definitely not in single digits.

How much does a nurse or a plain mbbs doctor earn at a corporate/semi-corporate private hospital in a big Indian city?