Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[sorcerer]

Don't wanna be party pooper but if it's given 5 to 7 years then it will take 10 yeras

5 to 7 years is doing rounds even with the most pessimist critic.
A few I talked to said, some most wanted alterations like demonetization , gst has yielded in a very mature economic system also they say that Industry is RESPONDING to changes more rapidly than in previous years.

Get the most out of the boom !!

 

[ezsasa]

India beats US in number of facebook users...

latest numbers of digital in India and US.

 

[Prashant12]

Which Countries Have The Most And Least Confidence In Their Governments

Trust in government is vitally important. It serves as a driving force for a country's economic development, makes governmental decisions more effective and leads to greater compliance with regulations and the tax system. Government trust levels are generally determined by whether or not people consider their government stable and reliable, if it's able to protect its citizens from risk and whether it can effectively deliver public services.

According to the latest edition of the OECD's Government at a Glance report, confidence in government fluctuates widely between countries. In recent years, Greece had to contend with being on the frontlines of Europe's migration crisis, multiple elections, bank shutdowns, defaulting and the introduction of capital controls so it comes as little surprise that it's at the very bottom of the government trust league. In 2016, a mere 13 percent of Greeks had confidence in their national government, substantially less than in other developed countries. Late last year, President Park Geun-hye was impeached before becoming the first democratically elected South Korean leader to be forced from office in March of this year. The scandal has certainly impacted Koreans and only a quarter of them had confidence in their government in 2016, according to the OECD's report.

In the United States, where fake news, scandals and allegations about Russian collusion are still dogging the White House, only 30 percent of people have confidence in their government. In the United Kingdom which is attempting to negotiate an amicable divorce from the European Union, trust stands at 41 percent. In Russia and Turkey, Putin and Erdogan's governments are both trusted by 58 percent of their respective citizens. With 73 percent, India was at the very top of the governmental confidence league while Canada also had higher than average confidence levels at 62 percent.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...n-their-governments-infographic/#d660d34652d2

 

[Kshatriya87]

Don't wanna be party pooper but if it's given 5 to 7 years then it will take 10 yeras

If GOI says that, yes. But this statement is made by independent corporate sources.

 

[Yggdrasil]

Both India and China are not growing at the pace they claim to be.

CPC has been fudging numbers for a long time, so I won't go into that. Overproduction of concrete and steel is not economic growth, no matter how it looks on the books.

When it comes to India, the problem is jobless growth. During UPA time, 10 years were wasted through kickback, loot and scam economy - we have to write off those 10 years as flushed down the toilet.

Right now, the infrastructure, the institutions etc are very weak, and the economy is growing in sectors and avenues that are not giving wide-scale employment to the youth. Ease of doing business, infrastructure, institutional strength, law and order, and overall diversification of the economy (though it is already very diverse, but the industrial base needs to be widened with less dependence on IT) is what will make the difference, not ad-hoc FDI that goes into niche areas and does not impact large-scale employment and value generation.

Entrepreneurship is key - unless we produce our own Lockheed Martins and Boeings and Facebooks and Googles etc, we're going to end up like China, but without the protectionism to shield local economy. Right now we don't really have brands that will make a global impact and suck money into the local economy. It won't be easy - the US has a huge head start in every sense and is ahead of the world in every way.

China realised that you can't have the services revolution without the industrial revolution - right now in India we're trying to develop driverless cars when some areas of the country don't have sewage, electricity and drinking water.

 

[Kshatriya87]

LIVE: Nifty above 9,900; RIL's market-cap crosses Rs 5-lakh crore mark
Watch this space for all live market updates
SI Reporter | New Delhi July 17, 2017 Last Updated at 13:34 IST

 

[Chinmoy]

Remittances to India dropped by nearly 9% in 2016: World Bank (from $68b to 62b)


Washington: Notwithstanding a significant 8.9% drop in remittances to India in 2016, the country retained the top spot among remittances receiving nations, according to a World Bank report.

The World Bank, in its latest report, said that the remittances to developing countries fell for a second consecutive year in 2016, a trend not seen in three decades. This was attributable mainly to the drop in oil prices and fiscal tightening in the oil producing countries in the West Asia, which has a significant Indian migrant population accounting for a large chunk of remittances.

India, while retaining its top spot as the world’s largest remittance recipient, led the decline with remittance inflows amounting to $62.7 billion last year, a decrease of 8.9% over $68.9 billion in 2015.




Click here for enlarge


In the latest edition of the migration and development brief, the bank estimates that officially recorded remittances to developing countries amounted to $429 billion in 2016, a decline of 2.4% over $440 billion in 2015. Global remittances, which include flows to high-income countries, contracted by 1.2% to $575 billion in 2016, from $582 billion in 2015.

Low oil prices and weak economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the Russian Federation are taking a toll on remittance flows to South Asia and Central Asia, while weak growth in Europe has reduced flows to North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, it said.

The decline in remittances, when valued in US dollars, was made worse by a weaker euro, British pound and Russian ruble against the US dollar. As a result, many large remittance-receiving countries saw sharp declines in remittance flows.

India was the largest remittance recipient followed closely by China ($61 billion), the Philippines ($29.9 billion), Mexico ($28.5 billion) and Pakistan ($19.8 billion), making up the top five. As a share of the gross domestic product (GDP), however, the top five recipients were Kyrgyz Republic, Nepal, Liberia, Haiti, and Tonga.
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/AO...ia-dropped-by-nearly-9-in-2016World-Bank.html

From the very same report....

“Remittances to India declined by 8.9% in 2016, to $62.7 billion. In Bangladesh, remittances declined by an estimated 11.1% in 2016,” the report said, adding that in Pakistan, the 12% growth witnessed in 2015 moderated to an estimated 2.8% in 2016. Nepal experienced unusually high growth in remittances, at 14.3% in 2015, due to migrants sending financial assistance home after the earthquake.

While for India, the drop was 9%, for Pakistan it was 9.2%. Interestingly, remittance does account for 2.9% of GDP growth for India, whereas for Pakistan it was 6.9%.

Remittances accounted for 2.9% of India’s GDP in 2016. It was highest for Nepal with 29.7% of the GDP, followed by Sri Lanka (8.8%), Pakistan (6.9%), and Bangladesh (6%).

 

[Indian Sniper.001]

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/jobs-facts-and-fiction-4753648/lite/

How can 26 per cent of Indians say they work for an enterprise with more than nine employees but only 1.5 per cent of Indian enterprises say they have more than nine employees? How can 92 per cent of our 500 million workers supposedly toil in informal employment when about 100 million Indians pay Provident Fund/ESI, or get a Form 16 of tax from employment, or are employed by government? How can GDP growth of 7 per cent-plus be jobless when the labour force only grew 2 per cent during the same period; does anybody really believe that India just experienced an impossible annual productivity growth of 5 per cent? How can only 4.9 per cent of our population be unemployed when 67 per cent of our population is poor enough to qualify for food subsidy?

India’s labour markets are confusing and I’d like to make the case that, one, India has more formal jobs than we think; two, our primary policy challenge is not creating jobs but wages; and three, creating more formal jobs needs sustained reforms to labour laws and education. Let’s look at all three points in more detail.

First, India doesn’t have “only 7 per cent formal employment” but somewhere between 15-25 per cent. India’s job information suffers from the Kartar Bhooth problem. Tagore expresses the tyranny of being bound to the past in his amusing yet profoundly serious short story Kartar Bhooth (The Ghost of the Leader) where the wishes of a respected but dead leader make present lives impossibly restrained. The Kartar Bhooth of India’s labour market information is the report of the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector chaired by the late Arjun Sengupta. I never met Sengupta but am sure he would regret the confusion his report created between unorganised/organised enterprises and formal/informal employment that has perpetuated the myth of 93 per cent informal employment.

Unsurprisingly, a huge unexplained difference between household and enterprise/production data is not unique to India’s labour markets (research suggests that there may be a 30 per cent-plus unexplained difference in household survey calories consumption and food production calories). So not only do we need to improve the frames and plumbing of our survey data but estimating jobs needs de-duplicated administrative data from provident fund, ESI, government employment, Form 16, Mudra loans, etc.

Second, most people who want a job in India have one (our unemployment rate of 4.9 per cent is not a fudge) but they don’t have the wages they need because of two large low-productivity clusters in our labour markets: 50 per cent of our labour force works on farms and 50 per cent of our labour force is self-employed. Both are “a job” but don’t generate the surplus to pull out of poverty. Farm loan waivers are an emergency response but states doing them should worry about what doctors call “iatrogenic risks”, that is, the problems created by the treatment they prescribe.

Sustainably reducing farmer poverty needs what economist Ashok Gulati thoughtfully calls the 4Is — incentives, investments, institutions, and innovation — but the only way to really help farmers is to have less of them. The poverty of self-employment is obvious; the poor cannot afford to be unemployed, not everybody can be an entrepreneur, and many of India’s 60 million enterprises are only viable with self-exploitation or regulatory arbitrage. Sustainably higher wages can only come from the higher productivity of formalised non-farm jobs in urban areas done by workers with higher human capital.

Formalisation resonates with a new OECD framework for labour market health that includes quantity, quality and inclusiveness that proposes metrics like gender employment gaps, the proportion of people on less than half the median income, etc.

Finally, massive formal job creation needs sustained reforms in labour laws and education. For a government that has taken above average risks — GST, demonetisation, bankruptcy code, and surgical strikes — the pedestrian ambition and performance of the ministries of HRD and labour is unacceptable.

Their alibis of vested interests, political economy or domain complexity are weak and can’t justify not moving forward with second-best or incremental reforms. In labour laws, we should stay away from hire-and-fire for now but we should: One, reform the poor value for money 45 per cent salary confiscation of formal employment by goofy monopolies like EPFO (that has four times more dormant accounts than live ones) and ESI (that only pays out 45 per cent of contributions it receives); two, repeal defunct central laws (nine) and merge the balance (35) into one labour code; three, set an 18-month deadline under all central laws for 100 per cent paperless, presenceless, and cashless compliance for all touch points (registration, licensing, returns, challans, registers, etc).

In education, we should: One, separate the role of regulator, policymakers and service provider and shift education regulation to the global non-profit structure norm; two, make the Right to Education Act the Right to Learning Act and remove the regulatory cholesterol that breeds corruption; and three, remove the ban on online higher education India’s formalisation agenda is making good progress. Over the last three years, we have added more than 1 crore new ESI payers and 1.4 crore new EPFO payers. Of course, not all these are new jobs but they are new formal jobs. Policy-making is not about being right but being successful and it’s always amusing to hear comments like “no GST is better than a multiple rate GST” or “without hire-and-fire or trade union reform all labour reform is useless” or “RBI’s involvement in NPA resolution is conceptually indefensible”. The best reform is small but sustained reform and MHRD and MOL get poor marks for strategy, stamina and sequencing.

India hasn’t had jobless growth; just poor formal job growth. This could change quickly with better infrastructure, lower regulatory cholesterol and higher human capital. India’s infrastructure is getting better; forcing MOL and MHRD to lower regulatory cholesterol and raise human capital will create millions of formal non-farm jobs.

Let us not forget that MUDRA loan has been provided to around 3-4 crore individuals who in turn would have provided employment to around 3-4 persons each. The mistake where we are making is that we are only focusing on white-collar jobs, whereas it is the non-white-collar jobs/businesses which account for about 80-85% of the GDP.

 

[Flame Thrower]

1.5 million Jobs Lost During First Four Months of 2017

You nearly had me except for this....

Do you understand what this pic means!?

75% of India has no bread earners in India...

Well, that is not the case...India would not have survived with such conditions even for 6 months(assuming the affects are from demonization)...

But one thing is for sure we grew at nearly 7% during demonization affects...

By end of Q22017-18, most of the demonization affects will diminish...add GST to the mixture... linking of Pan, Aadhar and bank accounts...no matter how good a tax evader is he won't escape...

I am eagerly waiting for 2018-19 budget to know more about the growth...

One thing is for sure...no matter what these analysts say...things don't change on the ground level.

And by the way... Demonization has its devastating affects during the Q4 2016-17, and Q1 2017-18. It diminished during Q2 2017-18.

It is OK to bear short term pain if it does good in long run.

 

[Yggdrasil]

1.5 million Jobs Lost During First Four Months of 2017

Manu Moudgil is a Naxalite ultra-left Greenpeace type moron. Please don't listen to Naxalites on the economy, they can't add single digit numbers.

 

[Prashant12]

Forex reserves at record high of USD 389.059 billion

The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 2.681 billion to touch a new life-time high of USD 389.059 billion in the week to July 14, helped by increase in foreign currency assets (FCAs), RBI data showed.

In the previous week, the reserves had marginally declined by USD 161.9 million to USD 386.377 billion.


FCAs, a major component of overall reserves, surged by USD 2.677 billion to USD 364.908 billion, according to the RBI data.

Expressed in US dollar terms, FCAs include the effects of appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies, such as the euro, pound and the yen, held in the reserves.

Gold reserves remained unchanged at USD 20.348 billion.

The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) rose by USD 1.8 million to USD 1.479 billion.

The country's reserve position with the IMF too increased by USD 2.7 million to USD 2.322 billion.

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...gh-of-usd-389-059-billion-117072101426_1.html

 

[Cutting Edge 2]

India Follows China’s Path to Factory Power
22:00 21.07.2017
The Indian government recently implemented its new Goods and Services Tax (GST), marking the country's largest tax reform since its independence in 1947. The launch of the new tax regime is aimed at simplifying India's complicated central and state tax system, unifying India's $2 trillion economy and 1.3 billion people into a single market.

While there is a lot of skepticism toward India's market unification reform, foreign companies appear to be confident about their prospects in the country. As part of the latest tax reform, India imposed a 10 percent duty on imported smartphones and some other electronic products, which has incentivized global smartphone manufacturers to accelerate their plans to set up plants in India. According to media reports, Foxconn plans to invest up to $5 billion in building new factories in the country. In June, Samsung announced it would invest 700 billion won ($608.28 million) to expand its production capacity in India, with monthly output expected to reach 10 million smartphones and 200,000 refrigerators by 2018.

Chinese mobile phone manufacturers are also investing in India. Brands like OPPO, Vivo, Lenovo and Xiaomi have set up plants in India, intensifying competition in the country's smartphone manufacturing sector. As early as four years ago, China's mobile phone industry, including brands, original equipment manufacturers, part suppliers, packaging suppliers and materials suppliers, started to enter the Indian market. In addition to smartphones, Chinese home appliances manufacturer Midea Group also announced recently that it would invest 800 crore ($123.98 million) to set up a factory in Pune, a city in western India. The factory is expected to be operational by the end of 2018 and aims to generate 500 jobs over the next five years.

The global auto industry is also eyeing India. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said Tesla is having talks with the Indian government to seek temporary relief from import duties ahead of establishing a local factory. A 60 to 100 percent duty is charged on imported foreign-made cars in India. In June, Chinese automaker SAIC Motor Corp announced plans to become the first Chinese auto company to build a manufacturing facility in India. During the period from 1995 to 2000, Hyundai, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota and other automakers started to produce cars in India. And since the Indian government allowed 100 percent foreign ownership in the automobile industry in 2000, there has been a sharp increase in investment by automakers in India.

This massive influx of investment by foreign manufacturers is of great significance for India's economy, employment and industrial development. If in the past India lacked capital, a developed manufacturing sector and skilled manufacturing workers, the foreign manufacturing inflow is now helping India address the problem, backing up the government's "Make in India" initiative. India mainly needs to do two things: first, enhance opening-up toward foreign companies and issue preferential conditions to attract foreign investment; second, provide sufficient labor resources. The Indian government also needs to open up its domestic consumption market. Foreign companies entering India have gradually shifted their focus from simple marketing and labor-intensive production to research and development. For instance, in 2015, China's Huawei Technologies Co invested $170 million to set up a research and development center in India and promised to join the "Make in India" campaign.

It should be pointed out that what is happening in India occurred in China two decades ago. Just like what happened with China during its reform and opening-up, the arrival of foreign manufacturing will greatly enhance India's ability to develop its manufacturing sector, which will help in cultivating a large number of skilled workers, managers and factories.

China should be calm seeing India's rise. To cope with competition from India, China could start working on a more effective growth strategy for the new era now.

The influx of foreign manufacturers is addressing some of India's weaknesses and enhancing its manufacturing ability, with Chinese companies also playing an important role in the process. This is a repeat of China's introduction of foreign investment, which is why it is likely that India may succeed.

This article was originally published in the Global Times.

https://sputniknews.com/asia/201707211055773437-india-follows-china-path-factory/

 

[Akshay Fenix]

Pakistan is dead, Now we beat China.

 

[Butter Chicken]

Rs 71,941 Crore Black Money Found in Last Three Years, Centre Tells SC

 

[Suryavanshi]

Rs 71,941 Crore Black Money Found in Last Three Years, Centre Tells SC

I'm sorry how much dollas is that?

 

[Screambowl]

India beats US in number of facebook users...

View attachment 17680

latest numbers of digital in India and US.

View attachment 17678

View attachment 17679

facebook user thing sounds funny. this is basically because of fake profiles and angel priyas

 

[Screambowl]

Pakistan is dead, Now we beat China.

Pakistan's population is merely 200 Million + they have big land to accommodate 20 crore.
our population 1.33 billion and increasing and ind is facing population explosion now.

 

[Butter Chicken]

I'm sorry how much dollas is that?

11-11.5 billion USD....................

 

[IndianHawk]

Pakistan's population is merely 200 Million + they have big land to accommodate 20 crore.
our population 1.33 billion and increasing and ind is facing population explosion now.

Not really our total fertility rate is now 2.2 that is almost stabilization level. Thanks to modernity and rising prosperity population growth will decline much faster from here on.

Our population density is still lower than Japan or England.

We just need better management of our human and geographical resources.

 

[IndianHawk]

Pakistan's population is merely 200 Million + they have big land to accommodate 20 crore.
our population 1.33 billion and increasing and ind is facing population explosion now.

Also baloochistan is 48% of porki land where population density is too low because of mountain terrain and accute scarcity of water. That means most of 200 million are surviving on 50% of porki land.