India Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistan's Tactical Nukes

Bhadra

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COLD WAR DOCTRINE STALLED

Cold Start was under evolution since the aftermath of Op Parakram but with any any official acceptanace that ant such military doctrine existed. However, Indian Army was on the way of evolving and experimenting with it through various military exercises.

The doctrine came under pressure from various internal and external sources. However India got completely exposed in the aftermath of 2008 Mumbai Terrorist attack by Pakistan sponsored terrorists in which scores of Indian and foreigners were butchered by Pakistani terrorist.

To the dismay of the world, India failed to respond militarily in any manner. Subsequently, it was revealed that OFB under MoD had failed to supply requisite ammunition to the Army. A 2015 detailed report by CAG revealed shocking details. The 2015 CAG report reflected the poor status of the ammunition stockpile-74 percent of the 170 types of ammunition failed to meet the Minimum Acceptable Risk Level (MARL) requirements, and only 10 percent met the War Wastage Reserve (WWR) requirements. The CAG's 2017 report⁴ noted that "no significant improvement took place in the critical deficiency in availability and quality of ammunition."

The CAG said that of a total of 152 types of ammunition considered critical by the Indian Army to fight a war:
* l As many as 61 types of ammunition is available for just 10 days only I
* Only 31 were available for 40 days l
* As many as 12 types of ammunition was available for 30 to 40 days l

* As many of 26 types of ammunition was available for a little over 20 days.

Tank ammunition, 155mm shells ,AD gun shells and other critical ammunition were just not available.

How could India or Indian Army ever think of any "Cold Start".

Thus OFB played a role in denying a requisite military capability to Indian Army for many years and as per CAG report of 2017 the deficiencies have not been completely made up specially tank and artillery ammunition.
 

Arsalan123

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It's Paki BULLSHIT that Indian Muslims don't have a voice in politics!
Indian Muslims have more or less dictated most of Indian domestic and foreign policies for several decades (India chose not to have diplomatic relations with Israel for 40+ years just to please Indian Muslims).
Also, most of non-Muslims speak for Muslims in India.......that's the sign of a progressive culture. Even in the US the loudest voices in favor of Muslims (or for that matter African Americans) is the White community....
Paki bred bigots won't understand the paradigm of open-progressive culture; they are forever fed on lies, BS & Islamic supremacy !

Pre-British arrival Muslims held less than a third of India. Even if they hypothetically did hold all of India, why should muslims become the rulers of India after the 47 Brexit? It's the selfish, diabolical Islamic ideology to subjugate non-Muslims that's the perennial source of hatred and problem!

Also, despite what most Muslims in the region think almost all of them are south asian converts. It's so stupid for these converts to automatically assume they have Turkish, Persian ancestry. Most get an egg on their face when they do their DNA test! The funniest was when Fareed Zakaria (Indian born US news anchor) declared that his father had told him that they were of Turkish descent....and he expected his DNA results to reflect the same.....but lo! to his shock he was 100% south-asian!!! :)

Indian Muslims have always enjoyed disproportionate amount of luxuries at the cost of poor non-Muslims! For 70+ years each year 100K Muslims go to Hajj FREE OF COST (Kashmir being predominantly Muslim enjoy this freebie the most). Gratitude is not a virtue exhibited by Islamic fundamentalist bigots!
Also, in which country does a 15% minority blare azaan everyday at 4.45am to wake up everyone...but such a act by majority community would be illegal.

Your ignorance or blatant lying is both pitiful and disgusting!

There are more Muslim billionaires in India than in Pakistan! Muslims in India do much better in life than they do in Pakistan. Pakis 'muslim country' tag is just a empty chest thumping slogan!

All Pakis are deliberately infected with the disease of India/Hindu-hatred. Unless Pakis stop such deliberate infection there will be no peace in the region! Pakis will continue to aspire to kill Indians!
lol.stick to the topic enquirer xd.
 

Arsalan123

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First bolded part- Have you been following Indian politics? Muslims have enough rights in India don't you see the things they say about our current govt? Don't you see the support they enjoy? Saying Muslims don't have enough rights or voice is India is purely a Pakistani thing.

Second, bolded part- Not true, I suggest you look up history, Maratha and Sikh empire was the dominant one during the British colonization, Mughals were in super decline.
what? yes maratha and sikh was present but british took it from mughal who was busy enjoying luxurious life.muslims have a say but they can't live like we are living in pakistan.indian constitution is based on indian ideology,not ideology preferred by muslims that's why.
 

Arsalan123

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so airspace remain shut until may 30.i believe cold start definitely begin after massive air engagement between paf and iaf.sams coming much closer to border than ever before.looks like iaf don't want paf to cross border in case iaf attacks.paf don't need to cross border.all sams near indian border are easy targets.harm or raptor 2 can do the job.lets see what happens!
 

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That Indian Army will go out of hands of the agencies they can influence and stop military action (means Indian Government and diplomats)

The massive equipment and ammunition deficiencies which came to light in 2010-13 could not have been an accident St Antony seems to have played a part into it
Very fine analysis. That's why Modi and Parrikar started criticizing Anthony's inaction on military buildup in the 'lost decade'. It was almost like intentional disarmament. The UPA probably felt that having the means to wage war will eventually create a temptation in the intel agencies to create an incident that will suddenly shift the prerogative of Indian policy-making from South Block to war-room generals. So they basically starved them for a decade, to make sure that the political brass does not have to relinquish their decision making authority.

Going by the reversal in that trend and the ongoing weapons buildup and constant missile tests and satellite launches..I think..some maps are going to change.
 

Bhadra

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Very fine analysis. That's why Modi and Parrikar started criticizing Anthony's inaction on military buildup in the 'lost decade'. It was almost like intentional disarmament. The UPA probably felt that having the means to wage war will eventually create a temptation in the intel agencies to create an incident that will suddenly shift the prerogative of Indian policy-making from South Block to war-room generals. So they basically starved them for a decade, to make sure that the political brass does not have to relinquish their decision making authority.

Going by the reversal in that trend and the ongoing weapons buildup and constant missile tests and satellite launches..I think..some maps are going to change.
Thank you an analytical comment.

There are a few aspects attached and built into "Cold Start Doctrine" as have been prominently pointed out in US Embassy cable cited above.

Once the decision has been taken by the political bosses after an incident the operation will be launched by Indian Armed Forces within 48 to 72 hours. That, beside having military implications, also means :

* Political bosses will have very less time to vacillate on the decision and reverse / revert it due to internal or external pressures, situations Indian Armed Forces faced through out in relation to the political objectives and aims of the military operation. Was it not for the surgical strike on Dhaka in 1971, liberation of Bangladesh would never have been achieved - a goal or objective never given to Indian Forces by the political bosses.

* Diplomacy will have almost little chance to play its restrictive fiddle and stop / delay the military response which they generally do at such times.

* External influences and interference such as by China or USA, on which Pakistani strategies heavily bank on will have little chance in stopping /delaying the launch and execution of Military Operations.

At military level, "Cold Start" neutralises Pakistani military advantages of internal and external line of communication running parallel to International Border and LC and peace time forward location of her military forces, thereby denying Pakistan any advantage of their "Offensive Defense" as also trapping those forces for destruction from the very beginning of operations. Eight to ten point attacks will also diminish and divide Pakistan's reaction and reserves, thereby disbalancing Pakistan Army's cohesion and integrity. That will further create conditions for Pakistan Army's destruction in detail by Indian Forces including by three strike corps who will be waiting in their launch pads for that opportunity.

That was / has been considered a threat by Indian diplomatic Corps (MEA) as always. by strong Pakistan loving Aman Ki Asha brigade, MoD and other agencies including external agencies. Otherwise what explains the flurry and intensity of negative articles by an institution like IDSA which function under MEA / MoD and other think tanks and journals like Diplomat. They simply "nuclearised" the issue and created a nuclear scare against the doctrine resulting political bosses under Man Mohan Singh never approving the doctrine nor publicly acknowledging it. Everything seems to have been done by UPA and MoD Babus to defang "Cold Start Doctrine" in their time. They simply seemed to have told Army to fight "Cold start" without ammunition and weapons. One day this will become a serious matter of historical investigation.

Kahani khatam...
 

Bhadra

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so airspace remain shut until may 30.i believe cold start definitely begin after massive air engagement between paf and iaf.sams coming much closer to border than ever before.looks like iaf don't want paf to cross border in case iaf attacks.paf don't need to cross border.all sams near indian border are easy targets.harm or raptor 2 can do the job.lets see what happens!
Air campaign is not Sine qua non for a cold start. Lightening capture of Kachimand, Nikial, Haji Pir or khuraita or Jhangar ridge overlooking Mangla or Skardu may not require air campaign. Why are you ignoring Indian Navy, which has their own air arm and Pakistan may find them sitting at Keti Bandar one day if not Karachi or Gwadar.

I would individually seek capture of Umarkot where a Rajput King defaulted in giving shelter to a fleeing Mughal family and facilitating birth and upbringing of Akbar. I would like to have my two large on Umarkot Fort.

Achieving air superiority in given area of operation will not be difficult for IAF even if you have lots of SAMs. Do not look at the current situation when no escalation has been sought by both the sides India having achieved her aims.
 
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Indx TechStyle

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what? yes maratha and sikh was present but british took it from mughal who was busy enjoying luxurious life.muslims have a say but they can't live like we are living in pakistan.indian constitution is based on indian ideology,not ideology preferred by muslims that's why.
Muslims can't live in a constitution providing equal rights to everyone regardless of class, religion & gender.
That's why.:rolleyes:
 

Enquirer

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what? yes maratha and sikh was present but british took it from mughal who was busy enjoying luxurious life.muslims have a say but they can't live like we are living in pakistan.indian constitution is based on indian ideology,not ideology preferred by muslims that's why.
"Indian ideology" is the modern way of life with ensured liberties and freedoms to ALL!
Pakis like to believe that "Indian ideology" is Hindu - nothing could be far from truth. Ancient Hindu culture also had patriarchy and male domination....but modern "Indian ideology" got rid of all those. Hindus willingly gave up on the medieval entanglements!
Unfortunately, Muslims insisted on living with the medieval constructs of patriarchy and misogyny (Muslim males having upto 4 wives, Muslim women not entitled to alimony etc.).
Net-net Indian Muslims live with their medieval Islamic cultural constructs, while at the same time enjoy the safeties, erudition and prosperities of modern "Indian idealogy".........as such Indian Muslims fare much better than Paki Muslims who are entangled in medieval Islamic constructs and have none of the safeties, erudition and prosperities (& Congratulations to you all)!!!
 

AUSTERLITZ

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what? yes maratha and sikh was present but british took it from mughal who was busy enjoying luxurious life.muslims have a say but they can't live like we are living in pakistan.indian constitution is based on indian ideology,not ideology preferred by muslims that's why.
Mughal were confined to delhi city and was puppet of scindias.The maratha flag flew on red fort ever since mahadji scindia took delhi in 1772.Marathas had raided delhi in 1737 and conquered it in late 1750s,but had to retreat after panipat for 10 years.They returned and took it in 1772.Scindia kept the mughal puppet on the trone because the legitimacy of his name allowed him to control regional powers more easily as the puppet would rubberstamp his orders.
As for cold start the concept is being validated on the ground now,after which there will be a period of organizational change.Only then will it be ready.Still 3-4 years.Until then we will sit and enjoy the collapse of naya pakistan with popcorn and pound away at loc.
 

Bhadra

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As for cold start the concept is being validated on the ground now,after which there will be a period of organizational change.Only then will it be ready.Still 3-4 years.Until then we will sit and enjoy the collapse of naya pakistan with popcorn and pound away at loc.
Yes , Cold start has become part of approved Indian Army doctrine as also Joint Operations Operations as issued and published in 2018.
It is now official - but what should make think is that it took 15 years for Indian Army to get an approval of the doctrine. One wonders how much time will it take to fully equip the forces for its execution. There are a lot of gaps there.
Reorganisation and restructuring forces may not take long. But who will give them ammunition? Last six years and the deficiencies seem to have not been made up.

OFB shells are exploding here and there.:doh::doh::doh::doh::doh:
 

Haldiram

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Thank you an analytical comment.

There are a few aspects attached and built into "Cold Start Doctrine" as have been prominently pointed out in US Embassy cable cited above.

Once the decision has been taken by the political bosses after an incident the operation will be launched by Indian Armed Forces within 48 to 72 hours. That, beside having military implications, also means :

* Political bosses will have very less time to vacillate on the decision and reverse / revert it due to internal or external pressures, situations Indian Armed Forces faced through out in relation to the political objectives and aims of the military operation. Was it not for the surgical strike on Dhaka in 1971, liberation of Bangladesh would never have been achieved - a goal or objective never given to Indian Forces by the political bosses.

* Diplomacy will have almost little chance to play its restrictive fiddle and stop / delay the military response which they generally do at such times.

* External influences and interference such as by China or USA, on which Pakistani strategies heavily bank on will have little chance in stopping /delaying the launch and execution of Military Operations.

At military level, "Cold Start" neutralises Pakistani military advantages of internal and external line of communication running parallel to International Border and LC and peace time forward location of her military forces, thereby denying Pakistan any advantage of their "Offensive Defense" as also trapping those forces for destruction from the very beginning of operations. Eight to ten point attacks will also diminish and divide Pakistan's reaction and reserves, thereby disbalancing Pakistan Army's cohesion and integrity. That will further create conditions for Pakistan Army's destruction in detail by Indian Forces including by three strike corps who will be waiting in their launch pads for that opportunity.

That was / has been considered a threat by Indian diplomatic Corps (MEA) as always. by strong Pakistan loving Aman Ki Asha brigade, MoD and other agencies including external agencies. Otherwise what explains the flurry and intensity of negative articles by an institution like IDSA which function under MEA / MoD and other think tanks and journals like Diplomat. They simply "nuclearised" the issue and created a nuclear scare against the doctrine resulting political bosses under Man Mohan Singh never approving the doctrine nor publicly acknowledging it. Everything seems to have been done by UPA and MoD Babus to defang "Cold Start Doctrine" in their time. They simply seemed to have told Army to fight "Cold start" without ammunition and weapons. One day this will become a serious matter of historical investigation.

Kahani khatam...
Probably they were trying to avoid another Brasstacks type incident. Maybe it was not the right time to wage war in 2008, or to create the means to wage a war, which would make it tempting to create a trigger to start one. I don't know if it was the right thing to do, but in your opinion, do you think we were better positioned in terms of our strategic options (BMD, second strike, un-interrupted satellite communications etc) to take care of Pakistan properly? I think we are much better placed now. We have a BMD, and our strike capabilities and options have multiplied, compared to the 26/11 era.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems we made the right judgment call to not rush into a war after 26/11. India's history of going to war has always been one of deliberate intention from the political higher-ups, intense build up for 5 years and sudden attack, like we did in 1971. It gives the political class the time to build diplomatic alliances and economically cripple the target nation. The military blow is the final aspect of the puzzle. They probably deliberately keep that piece of the puzzle unfinished until the very last, to avoid temptation. They probably think that if a war is thrust upon us before our planned date, then one can import weapons at the last moment and halt it, which seems better than being at 100% sanctioned strength at all times.

We are at a sweet point now. Our economy is big enough to afford a war, unlike 2008, when it would have been insufficient, and unlike 2030, when we'd be too big and have too much to lose.
 
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Bhadra

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Probably they were trying to avoid another Brasstacks type incident.
They have been trying that since 1947 but it never happened. Their attitude towards armed forces as a threat to their power and rule of Delhi remains a constant paranoia without any basis. Any one like Shekhar Gupta talking of an Army coup in 2012-13 at the behest of some politicians is a sign of such a paranoia. It is inbuilt into the Left Liberal narrative of India that Armed Forces are a threat to their rule and therefore must be kept suppressed.

Maybe it was not the right time to wage war in 2008, or to create the means to wage a war, which would make it tempting to create a trigger to start one. I don't know if it was the right thing to do, but in your opinion, do you think we were better positioned in terms of our strategic options (BMD, second strike, un-interrupted satellite communications etc) to take care of Pakistan properly? I think we are much better placed now. We have a BMD, and our strike capabilities and options have multiplied, compared to the 26/11 era. With the benefit of hindsight, it seems we made the right judgment call to not rush into a war after 26/11
Did the then govt asked Armed Forces to respond ? - No

If a country like India fails to respond to a grave challenge to national security such as Mumbay carnage, then it is not only a matter of shame but a matter of failure of a state. It is very very serious.

If India was not prepared militarily to respond to 26/11, then it is the grave concern and the government of the day should have made some heads roll. But how can a government roll its own head.

There were 45 major terrorist attacks after Jan 2009 till Pulwama killing more than a thousand Indians.

If Indian Military Deterrence failed during 26/11, it should have a matter of national crisis and a solution found. But MMS and Paki loving Indian establishment tried to find solutions in things like Sharamal Seikh, surrender of Siachen and talks and talks.

. India's history of going to war has always been one of deliberate intention from the political higher-ups, intense build up for 5 years and sudden attack, like we did in 1971. It gives the political class the time to build diplomatic alliances and economically cripple the target nation. The military blow is the final aspect of the puzzle. They probably deliberately keep that piece of the puzzle unfinished until the very last, to avoid temptation. They probably think that if a war is thrust upon us before our planned date, then one can import weapons at the last moment and halt it, which seems better than being at 100% sanctioned strength at all times.
Wars / military conflicts were forced on India five times after independence.
Except for 1971, India had no sense of war, their reactions were directionless and haphazard. Political reactions were largely directed to their regime stability and domestic power dominance. It all began with 1947-48 when Indian Army was stopped by Nehru at certain geographical parameters to serve Seikh Abdullas interests rather than in India's national interests. 1965 was a series of shames heaped on India by Krishna Menon and Nehru. 1965 was also a knee jerk reaction rather than an attempt to find a solution to a problem called Pakistan. Even in 1971 the political leadership never knew what they wanted out of the war.1999 was needlessly restrictive and conveyed a weak political will.

National interest, national aims and objectives and how to attain those were never spelled out by any government to the Armed Forces. There were no military directives, no role definition and no cut out tasks for Armed Forces,.
In spite of the above, how Armed Forces leadership did not allow a military collapse during last 60 years is matter of satisfaction.

Even in 1971, it was never spelt out to the Army what end state was desired, what was the aims and objectives of operations in Bangladesh. Captur of Dhaka and liberation of Bangladesh were never spelt out as objecives to the Indian Army. No written instruction were given to the Army in 1971.

We are at a sweet point now. Our economy is big enough to afford a war, unlike 2008, when it would have been insufficient, and unlike 2030, when we'd be too big and have too much to lose.
Sweet spot is in sight and India has to reach that spot. India can not reach the spot as an insecure, unprotected and scared state. Security is essential part of economic progress and well being of the citizens of the country.
 

Arsalan123

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Air campaign is not Sine qua non for a cold start. Lightening capture of Kachimand, Nikial, Haji Pir or khuraita or Jhangar ridge overlooking Mangla or Skardu may not require air campaign. Why are you ignoring Indian Navy, which has their own air arm and Pakistan may find them sitting at Keti Bandar one day if not Karachi or Gwadar.

I would individually seek capture of Umarkot where a Rajput King defaulted in giving shelter to a fleeing Mughal family and facilitating birth and upbringing of Akbar. I would like to have my two large on Umarkot Fort.

Achieving air superiority in given area of operation will not be difficult for IAF even if you have lots of SAMs. Do not look at the current situation when no escalation has been sought by both the sides India having achieved her aims.
i would love to run present day india in ottoman empire way.i will eat biryani in hyderabad and i will forgive everyone.i will built massive navy for the entire region and i would love to marry at red fort.everyone will participate and we will drink coca cola hahaha. bhadra you should be realistic.all these achievement that you mentioned above is almost impossible.you are taking pakistan very lightly.
 

Arsalan123

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Mughal were confined to delhi city and was puppet of scindias.The maratha flag flew on red fort ever since mahadji scindia took delhi in 1772.Marathas had raided delhi in 1737 and conquered it in late 1750s,but had to retreat after panipat for 10 years.They returned and took it in 1772.Scindia kept the mughal puppet on the trone because the legitimacy of his name allowed him to control regional powers more easily as the puppet would rubberstamp his orders.
As for cold start the concept is being validated on the ground now,after which there will be a period of organizational change.Only then will it be ready.Still 3-4 years.Until then we will sit and enjoy the collapse of naya pakistan with popcorn and pound away at loc.
i am not saying that you can't adopt different strategies and i know india can apply cold start but i think you have to consider retaliation.nobody wants to die and soldiers die for their respective nations.lets say india captures a small part of pakistan? so? pakistan can do exactly the same.indians don't believe that we are strong.i think we both are now in 2019 and both have everything,everything from from artillery to missiles is available.war is not easy.modern war is based on strategies and not on emotions.indian army will never gather at a single spot during cold war because they know about nasr.fighting without reinforcement is a bit hard for any army.army reinforcement means massive number of soldiers and armor and this is exactly why we designed nasr.i just want to ask you the motive of pakistan behind this massive missile force? we have missiles in very very large number and cold start is not easy.india have to face everything if it wants piece of pakistani land.that's truth.

i don't know history of maratha or other people but i know that muslims were present in india and we even read it in books so we will fight for our country.a country which you can call remains of mughal or afghans lol but we are powerful despite bad economy.
 
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Arsalan123

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"Indian ideology" is the modern way of life with ensured liberties and freedoms to ALL!
Pakis like to believe that "Indian ideology" is Hindu - nothing could be far from truth. Ancient Hindu culture also had patriarchy and male domination....but modern "Indian ideology" got rid of all those. Hindus willingly gave up on the medieval entanglements!
Unfortunately, Muslims insisted on living with the medieval constructs of patriarchy and misogyny (Muslim males having upto 4 wives, Muslim women not entitled to alimony etc.).
Net-net Indian Muslims live with their medieval Islamic cultural constructs, while at the same time enjoy the safeties, erudition and prosperities of modern "Indian idealogy".........as such Indian Muslims fare much better than Paki Muslims who are entangled in medieval Islamic constructs and have none of the safeties, erudition and prosperities (& Congratulations to you all)!!!
yes indian muslims are very happy and next pm of india will be muslim.are you kidding me? we are happy to spend our lives in pakistan lol.
 

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yes indian muslims are very happy and next pm of india will be muslim.are you kidding me? we are happy to spend our lives in pakistan lol.
The next PM doesn't need to be a Muslim to prove that Indian Muslims are treated well!!
US never had a woman President; Pakis had a woman PM. Does that mean women are treated better in Paki land? LOL!!

Indian Muslims have headed several critical areas...including the Air Force, Defence Research, UN reps , movies, media and not to mention the PRESIDENT!

BTW...no one was suggesting that Pakis should come to India to enjoy better life! India is better off not having people who grew up in a crucible filled with vitriol!

Indian Muslims have access to better education and a lot more opportunities to rise up in life & career! As such, India has more wealthy Muslims than Paki land has!! Also the average income of Indian Muslims is higher than that of Paki Muslims!!! Avg income for both Hindus and Muslims in India are exactly the same (Sikhs, Jains & Christians exceed both Hindus & Muslims!)

Ordinary Paki Muslims have absolutely no opportunity to rise up! Below the Army and Mullahs are essentially 2000 odd feudal lords who control almost all of Paki lands and wealth!!! An ordinary Paki can NEVER go onto becoming a billionaire or the Prime Minister! I challenge you to show me ONE example that would prove me wrong!!!

If life for Paki Muslims is so much better than that for Indian Muslims, why doesn't any Indian Muslim aspire to migrate to Paki land (other than for the occasional marriage with a cousin across the border)? On the other hand, Paki Muslims (and also Bangladeshi Muslims) always aspire to migrate to India for a better life ($$$).

Even the Kashmiri Jihadis who travel to Paki land for terror training never want to stay back in Paki land! those who give up on jihad also try to find their way back into India to settle down peacefully (some even bringing their Paki wives along with them)!

Pakistan is a shit hole country that no one wants to live in. Only the 'frogs in Paki pond' ignorantly continue to sing paeans because that's all they've been bred to do!!!
 
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yes indian muslims are very happy and next pm of india will be muslim.are you kidding me? we are happy to spend our lives in pakistan lol.
A True Muslim is probably never truly happy with anything...
upload_2019-5-18_5-16-51.jpeg


Even if the entire world converts to Islam, the wars will not stop.

Pakistan is a classic example. Ahmadis were one of the proponents of partition of india, they travelled around the world arranging meetings, spreading the idea of pakistan ,collecting funds for Muslim league. Today as karma would have it, the nation they helped create does not consider them muslim enough. Today it is ahmedis, tomorrow it will be sindhis, day after it will be back to afridis vs orakzais. This cycle of violence will never end.
 

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