India Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistan's Tactical Nukes

[Bhadra]

CSD IS A LIMITED WAR DOCTRINE : ONE ANALYSIS​

https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/IS3203_pp158-190.pdf
​

Indian Army envisioned a limited War doctrine The goal of this limited war doctrine is to establish the capacity to launch a retaliatory conventional strike against Pakistan that would inflict significant harm on the Pakistan Army before the international community could intercede, and at the same time, pursue narrow enough aims to deny Islamabad a justiªcation to escalate the clash to the nuclear level.

Cold Start seeks to leverage India’s modest superiority in conventional forces to respond to Pakistan’s continued provocation.

This doctrine requires reorganizing the Indian Army’s offensive power away from the three large strike corps into eight smaller division-sized “integrated battle groups” (IBGs) that combine mechanized infantry, artillery, and armor in a manner reminiscent
of the Soviet Union’s operational maneuver groups.

The eight battle groups would be prepared to launch multiple strikes into Pakistan along different axes of advance.

It is envisioned that the operations of the IBGs would be integrated with close air support from the Indian Air Force and naval avia-tion assets to provide highly mobile ªre support.

As one retired Indian general described, India is seeking to “mass ªrepower rather than forces.”

At the same time, the holding corps (redesignated “pivot corps”), which would be bolstered by additional armor and artillery, would concurrently man defensive positions and undertake limited offensive operations as necessary. All elements would engage in continuous operations, day and night, until their military objectives were achieved.

Rather than seek to deliver a catastrophic blow to Pakistan (i.e., cutting the country in two), the goal of Indian military operations would be to make shallow territorial gains, 50–80 kilometers deep, that could be used in postconºict negotiations to extract concessions from Islamabad.

Some commentators have emphasized the ability to quickly mass ground and air ªrepower to deliver a punishing blow to the Pakistan Army, perceived to be the source of much of Pakistan’s aggressive foreign policy, while not harming civilian centers.

 

[mystic avatar]

So what are you waiting for?

We are waiting for Pakistan to use Nasr on our troops. Unlike our rough neighbor we have a NFU policy.

Is this the same industrial country that was hiding Taj Mahal with black cover in 2008?

What are you talking about? We had a devastating attack on our CIVILIANS from PAKISTANI TERRORISTS. What does that have to do with a country's industrial capabilities?

Why India needs rafale? Why s-400? Are you scared?

Are you joking? Why would a country invest in defense equipment?

By this logic your higher then Himalaya friend is also scared because they are also buying S-400 and SU-35.
As per you, every country on planet (including yours) is scared because they are buying/upgrading their defense equipment.

Do you believe that only you is watching from satellite?

Yeah because Pakistan doesn't have dedicated military satellites.:biggrin2:

We even spotted heat patterns underground.we know where to hit.

What you have is third party intel and lots of assumptions.

you guys always think of Pakistan as weak country.

This is the reality my friend. Your country is weak compared to India by every factor. If you have any doubts please goolge it.

we know where you are hiding your ballistic missile.these facilities are primary targets,not secondary.

So you have coordinates of our SSBN and SLMs. Or are you tracking our road/rail mobile TELs from your mighty SUPARCO Hubble telescope?

better economy is good.india should work hard but comparing yourself with Pakistan shows only weakness from indian side.

Actually its Pakistan who is constantly comparing itself with India not vise versa.

 

[Mikesingh]

Why do you guys even bother replying to the BS being spewed out by this clueless Paki @Arsalan123

 

[Bhadra]

Operational Details of Cold Start ​

* Those remain classified, it appears that the goal would be to have three to five IBGs entering Pakistani territory within seventy-two to ninety-six hours from the time the order to mobilize is issued.

* The IBGs should be launching their break-in operations and crossing the ‘start line’ even as the holding (defensive) divisions are completing their deployment on the forward obstacles.

* Only such simultaneity of operations will unhinge the enemy, break his cohesion, and paralyze him into making mistakes from which he will not be able to recover.

* A major emphasis of Cold Start is on the speed of both deployment and operations.

* By moving forces into unpredicted locations at high speeds and making decisions faster than their opponents can, the IBGs would seek to defeat Pakistani forces in the field by disrupting their cohesion.

* The Indian Army would also seek to take advantage of surprise at both the strategic and the operational levels to achieve a decision before outside powers such as the United States and China could intervene on Pakistan’s behalf.

* Analysts in both India and Pakistan presume that the international community would intervene and force an end to hostilities within two to three weeks of a war between the two countries—although in reality, neither side has the logistical capability to sustain a longer conflict.

* There also appears to be an unspoken assumption that rapid operations would prevent India’s civilian leadership from halting military operations in progress, lest it has second thoughts or possesses insufficient resolve.

​

 

[Bhadra]

Advantages of the Cold Start Doctrine ​

# First, forward-deployed division-sized units can be alerted faster and mobilized more quickly than larger formations.

* If the battle groups and the pivot corps start closer to the international border, their logistics requirements are significantly reduced, enhancing their maneuverability and their ability to
surprise.

# Second, even though division-sized formations can “bite and hold”
territory, they lack the power to deliver a knockout blow. In the minds of Indian military planners, this denies Pakistan the “regime survival” justification for employing nuclear weapons in response to India’s conventional attack.

* Furthermore, under Cold Start, the Indian Army can undertake a range of responses to a given provocation rather than the all-or-nothing approach of the Sundarji doctrine.

# Third, multiple divisions, operating independently, have the
potential to disrupt or incapacitate the Pakistani leadership’s decision making cycle, as happened to the French high command in the face of the German blitzkrieg of 1940.

* Indian planners believe that when faced with offensive thrusts in as many as eight different sectors, the Pakistani military would be hard-pressed to determine where to concentrate its forces and which lines of advance to oppose.

# Fourth, having eight (rather than three) units capable of offensive
action significantly increases the challenge for Pakistani intelligence’s limited reconnaissance assets to monitor the status of all the IBGs, improving the chance of achieving surprise.

* Pakistan’s defense against Indian attacks would be more difªcult because the military objectives would be less obvious.

# Finally, if Pakistan were to use nuclear weapons against Indian forces, divisions would present a significantly smaller target than would corps.

 

[Immanuel]

don't remind me of day light.i think feb 27 was day light attack by paf.one helicopter,one mig and most probably one su-30(or f-16) but damage is clearly visible.why you wanted to attack pakistan on feb 28 with missiles? why so much anger at that time? hahaha.

One F-16 lost to an ancient magnificent relic. 200 Pigs killed in the strike the day before. Paki airpspace closed for over a month, your economy is even more in the gutter. Over half dozen drones shot as well.

The Mi-17 was shot down by our own SAM due to failure in IFF procedures (probably, investigation still not completed)

All MKIs accounted for.

IAF has evidence of the F-16 splash down from radio intercepts, ground radar data, 3 visual sightings from different army posts.

It's a good thing Wing Co. came back as per Geneva Convention times, else Karachi would still be burning.

 

[Bhadra]

COLD START DOCTRINE - SUBHASH KAPILA ENENCIATION
​

Dr Subhash Kapila published a paper on the subject in 2004. That is existing here on DFI right in Cut and Paste form. I wish to reproduce it but in sub-head or Topical form so that various facets of Cold start doctrines stand out.

DFI reproduction:
https://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/cold-start-doctrine.9055/

Dr Subhas Kapila Paper :

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/paper991

 

[Bhadra]

COLD START DOCTRINE - SUBHASH KAPILA ENUNCIATION
General​

* India unveiled officially its new war doctrine on April 28, 2004 at the Army Commander’s Conference

* General Padmanabhan the Chief of Army Staff at the time of Operation PRAKARAM had initiated the process of formulating a new war doctrine and the fruitation now seems to have taken place

* in any future conflict scenario where a “blitzkrieg” type strategy is going to be followed; joint operations involving the Indian Army, Indian Air Force and Indian Navy would be an imperative.

* new war doctrine conceptually incorporates as it is said to revolve around the employment of “integrated battle groups” for offensive operations.

* new “Cold Start Strategy” visualizes the use of eight “integrated battle groups”.

* the eight “integrated battle groups” mean eight integrated armoured division/mechanized / infantry division sized forces with varying composition of armour, artillery, infantry and combat air support- all integrated.

 

[Bhadra]

COLD START DOCTRINE - SUBHASH KAPILA ENUNCIATION
The Strategic Conceptual Underpinnings
​

* The distinction between “strike corps” and “defensive corps” in ground holding role will be gradually diminished.

* The offensive military power available with defensive corps in the form of independent armoured brigades and mechanized brigades, by virtue of their forward locations would no longer remain idle waiting to launch counterattacks. They would be employed at the first go and mobilized within hours.

* Strike Corps may be re-constituted and reinforced to provide offensive elements for these eight or so “battle groups” to launch multiple strikes into Pakistan

* India’s strike corps elements will have to be moved well forward from existing garrisons.

 

[Bhadra]

COLD START DOCTRINE - SUBHASH KAPILA ENUNCIATION
Likely politico-strategic / politico-military aims​

* Cutting out long drawn out military mobilization running into weeks.

* The above results in loss of surprise at the strategic and military level.

* The above also gives time to Pakistan’s external patrons like USA and China to start exerting coercive pressures and mobilizing world opinion against India as witnessed in Operation Prakaram.

* Long mobilization time also gives the political leadership in India time to waver under pressure, and in the process deny Indian Army its due military victories.

* The new war doctrine would compel the political leadership to give political approval ‘ab-initio’ and thereby free the Armed Forces to generate their full combat potential from the outset.


Cold Start Strategy” is Aimed at Pakistan and is Offensive Oriented- The Pakistan Army, (not the Pakistani people)

 

[Arsalan123]

Admitting your ignorance of Indian history is commendable. Here's some more revelations for you - you're ignorant of Paki history too!
The core of Pakistan was born in the minds of erstwhile Mughal aristocrats - who found themselves with no money or power after British took over! These good-for-nothings craved to reestablish Islamic supremacy over India. When India was choosing to become democratic (every man/woman being equal) after British exit, the Muslim league couldn't stomach the fact that Muslims will be 'brought down' to the level of Hindus; they felt Muslims should be the 'rulers'.
The best compromise Jinnah and cabal were willing to settle for was Muslims (comprising 25% of then India) will get 50% of ALL GOVERNMENT/POLITICAL positions! Pakistan was created because Indian Congress refused that idea.

So, your imagination about Pakistan being formed by various 'dynasties' & civilizations is BS - it was essentially a bigoted idea by rabid individuals!

Historical facts aside, Pakistan could have gone onto to become a stable and prosperous country. However the short-sightedness of defining itself only as India's enemy eventually led to Pakis spiraling into a vortex!

It's worth mentioning that the original inventors of the idea of Pakistan (Bihari & UP Muslims) got their ass whipped both in West Pakistan (by Punjabis) and in East Pakistan (by Bengalis)! It's funny that the same folks who championed for Pakistan creation desperately begged India to invade Pakistan and 'liberate mohajirs'!!

Politically Pakistan has never been a democracy - it was always a three way match among Army, Mullahs and the Feudal lords (Chaudhrys etc).

Afghanistan was far more progressive than Pakis ever were! Affghan women in 60s and 70s were very modern and enjoyed all freedoms! It was Zulfikar Bhutto who created the Mujahideen in Afghanistan to spread Islamic vitriol (long before USSR/USA got involved) in order to bring Afghans under Paki thumb! Pakis eventually destroy Afghanistan!

don't blame pakistan for soviet invasion in afghanistan.jinah made the right decision because congress already rejected our rights.muslims were clever and they planned for a seperate homeland.i don't care if you call us mughals or biharis or afghans.fact is we made the right decision.look at india today.there is no major political party of muslims in india.only few small political parties.we wanted our share in india.we are very happy in pakistan.corruption will end soon.country wants to progress now.bengalis defended lahore in 65 and they defended well.it was unfortunate that we lost bangladesh but we are still one unit.we have many problems in our country but we are together against any external threat.last night,iaf sent large package of fighter jets towards border.my question is what do you want now? you should de escalate.you are sending large package of fighter jets very frequently.this is not cool.

 

[Arsalan123]

@Arsalan123 if u want to discuss the 27th-28th events do it in the appropriate thread. I don't find anything other than derailing,spamming here in this thread which is supposed to discuss CSD.
Search for the appropriate thread and start a discussion. Leave this thread for CSD only.

i am very sorry to discuss it here.actually i am banned on that particular thread.indian members requested my ban to mods.i think you should give us chance to speak.we can't solve our problems if we remain hostile towards each other.

 

[Arsalan123]

ISPR says they dropped bombs from Pak airspace and as far as I know we have also maintained they dint enter our airspace and usually brigade HQs, ammo dumps on the LOC can be hit by artillery too on either sides and considering the fact PAF used LGBs then it is possible they dint violate the airspace. Also, even if the entire PAF was airborne it doesn't mean they all should be part of the main attack and as per Indian sources it was the mirages which was part of the main attack axis, came close to LOC and released package when they were being intercepted by Su30s which is when the F16s fired at them to cover the mirages escape and turned back which is when the Migs came from ground level with their radars off being guided by Phalcon and/or the Ground operator and use heat seekers not radar guided missiles.

Regarding Amraams lets say 4 of them were fired from long range against the 2 SU30s in that area and they were able to dodge cause it is at the max range and also probably by using anti radar counter measures with evasive maneuvers and electronic jamming and the missiles flew on and crashed somewhere. Then aint it painstaking and time consuming to find each and every piece of wreckage to prove the missiles missed? It doesn't make sense. If PAF is so sure about kill they can easily provide the same evidence what IAF provided, even has pics, but why haven't they? Also, they can provide the same evidence to prove that F16 which "disappeared" from our radar re-appearing on their radar or even better the radar images of all the F16s returning to base after the sortie. PAF dont have to ans to the civilian govt here where to release evidences it has to follow all sorts of red tape and get clearance but in Pakistan looking at things I feel all that can be bypassed. And still they haven't released it.

Also, to add, our radar images are from Phalcon AWACS so basically the radar is looking at the horizon and towards the earth, in this instance I dont think the F16 can avoid the radar by using terrain. And also everybody saw two planes falling from the sky, there are videos too i am sure you would've seen. And ISPR and PM itself confirmed they got 3 and one is in the hospital which we know is not IAF WC, then later they confirmed its 2 IAF pilots which ended up as one. Even locals talking about another pilot.

And there is the fact that R73 dint have the war head, it was just the seeker and burnt out motor.

YWhat does this all add up to?

yes i agree.we all saw two planes going down.one plane identity is still unknown but i think it's either our or yours.anyway this dogfight doesn't define entire paf airborne purpose.there is something else in this story.we will surely know the facts one day.there is an article about r-73 on mig-21 and independent experts suggested that it was not fired but when i saw the photo,i feel that it was fired.anyway lets see what happens next.i think another iaf paf encounter is a possibility.

 

[Arsalan123]

Pakistan should inform everyone what happened on March 5-6.

give me details.i don't know what happened.baba also said the same thing.i don't know what happened.

 

[itsme]

yes i agree.we all saw two planes going down.one plane identity is still unknown but i think it's either our or yours.anyway this dogfight doesn't define entire paf airborne purpose.there is something else in this story.we will surely know the facts one day.there is an article about r-73 on mig-21 and independent experts suggested that it was not fired but when i saw the photo,i feel that it was fired.anyway lets see what happens next.i think another iaf paf encounter is a possibility.

Well entire PAF airborne was cause to defend from immediate IAF retaliation for example if all the available IAF combat assets in air close to that location were ordered to give chase and shoot down PAF planes, so to avoid that. Also, PAF mass, non stealthy intrusion inside our airspace would have been disastrous for the PAF. The fact that ISPR also boasts of attacking in broad daylight shows there was not any real military objective here but to put on a show of bravado for the Pakistani people to avoid going to war hence, hitting targets was not a priority that is why as soon as them Sukois were detected on an intercept course the PAF mirages bugged out but the F16s to cover retreat had to fire AMRAAMS cause the SU30s dint disengage when they were locked on as the PAF did on 26th or the mirages would be shot at. If this had not happened then there would have been no military loss on both Indian side and Pakistani side, Indians happy cause we got the terrorists deep inside Pak and defended airspace while the Pakistanis happy PAF attacked in broad day light which makes them "braver" than IAF and the fact that the bombs missed is no big deal cause Pakis are led to believe IAF also missed in Balakot. So, both of them are happy and no war cause no military loss on both sides. I think this was Paks plan both govt and army but, the SU30s getting fired upon and Mig21s not getting detected and crossing Loc, bringing the F16 down and getting the Mig21 shot and IAF pilot ending up behind enemy lines changed the entire equation and escalation increased. And in the middle of all this the MI17 went down, officially IAF has confirmed it to be mechanical failure and ISPR has denied any involvement. But not sure if friendly fire, we will know about it from IAF for sure. If like you say PAF did hit an unarmed military heli then IAF would have definitely confirmed it cause it gives India propaganda points to show how PAF shot down an unarmed transport heli in retaliation to IAF targeting terrorists and also allows India to target PAF the same way. So PAF hitting that heli or IAF covering it up doesn't make sense.

Also, there are articles which suggest the missile was fired and hit and looking at the missile it does seem like it hit. And I also think there will be another encounter in response to the Feb 27th PAF action which went wrong.

On 26 Feb where IAFs main target was Jem and had to sneak in to Pak so as not to confront PAF cause our war is with terrorists but, this time due to PAF attempt to hit IA installations and being the first one to fire missiles at our fighters I believe next time when IAF wants to hit targets I feel they will not try and avoid confrontation with PAF like last time and they would execute a massive military Op instead of a CT Intl led Op. Which means coming in with guns blazing. Like you said lets see what happens and as time goes by more details will be out.

 

[Lancer]

Regarding usage of nukes by India , generally people including many informed ones are off the mark.

I have read papers from DRDO / SFC which war gamed such scenarios using mathematical models and matrices and what not . 90 % went above my head because of the mathematics involved , I tried to correlate with US models using open source research papers and declassified papers.

The options for counter value and counter force , the number of warheads for each , the yield proscribed for each target in conjunction with the weather models , the terrain models and the estimated redundancy and survivability etc will surprise all of you.

Let me give you a hint - India uses a 2 man crew for authentication and launch delegation. Quiz - which indian company manufactures the high security arming keys ?

It's similar to US and came as a surprise to me. In the event of break down of chain of command under nuclear attack there is a provision which allows for something let's name as ' drastic measures ' , about which I have no idea. I got the idea from the paper.

One model was describing how indian armoured columns in a deep thrust into porkistan would maneuver towards objectives hugging porky cities and population centres and water bodies etc as the opportunities arose rather than enter the cities or the population centres etc , inorder to negate a possible porky nuclear strike on the Indian formations , because it would be counter productive to them , leading to massive civilian causalities , poisoning of water bodies , destruction of life critical infra etc while the NBC protected indian formations will suffer lesser damage. I will stop now, said too much.

This should give a idea of how stupid the porkistani threat of using nukes inside porkistan against invading indian armoured columns. It is nothing but a bluff , even if they are stupid enough to use it , they will destroy themselves mostly with the added bonus of inviting definitive counterforce strikes and then countervalue strikes as the case maybe if escalation is deemed required for deterrence.

Anyways the funny thing is I never knew mathematics was so destructive.

Glad to see my belief corroborated; I always used to quietly wonder when I heard Paki nuclear bluster - that what if we simply chose to concentrate our attacks/forces near crucial features like all the rivers running through Paki Punjab.

Add in the option of choosing specific times of the year/weather to attack (if you get my drift) and Pakistan would ultimately end up wiping itself out, while doing absolutely minimal damage to our forces.

 

[Enquirer]

don't blame pakistan for soviet invasion in afghanistan.jinah made the right decision because congress already rejected our rights.muslims were clever and they planned for a seperate homeland.i don't care if you call us mughals or biharis or afghans.fact is we made the right decision.look at india today.there is no major political party of muslims in india.only few small political parties.we wanted our share in india.we are very happy in pakistan.corruption will end soon.country wants to progress now.bengalis defended lahore in 65 and they defended well.it was unfortunate that we lost bangladesh but we are still one unit.we have many problems in our country but we are together against any external threat.last night,iaf sent large package of fighter jets towards border.my question is what do you want now? you should de escalate.you are sending large package of fighter jets very frequently.this is not cool.

I agree it was probably a good decision to segregate narrow-minded, Islam-supremacy-professing & undemocratic crowd into a separate country (what u call Pakistan).

But facts are facts...irrespective of how much you wish to lie about it. Muslims weren't denied any rights! Unfortunately, you guys think Muslims becoming the 'rulers of the land' is your fundamental right....you guys think treating a non-Muslim as a lesser human is your fundamental right. So, yes.....those diabolical 'rights' were denied! Since folks felt that they cannot live in a democratic & civilized society...a Pakistan was a fitting swamp!

Pakistan is completely to be blamed for what happened in Afghanistan! Pakistan is the one that created Mujahideen, Hizb-e-Islami etc to create trouble in Afg (long before USSR moved in or USA involved)....Pakis

also helped assassinate Afghan President to install a Paki puppet (again before USSR moved in or USA became involved). It was the upon the request of the dying Afghan president that USSR moved in the troops to quell the Paki supported Mujahideen.

The less said about the monster Taliban that Pakis created the better....or I'll go into an angry fit!!

Punjabis treated Bengalis as second class citizens all along - because they were darker, shorter and spoke a different language! When the entire country democratically elected Mujib-ur-Rahman as the Prime Minister, asshole Zulfikar Bhutto got him arrested and helped massacre 3 million Bengalis! So, the Bengalis rightfully created Bangladesh! India released 93,000 Paki POWs just to get Mujib-Ur-Rahman released from Paki prision!

Most people just blame the army for all the Paki ills, but my firm understanding is that Paki society as such lacks any moral fabric to hold itself together....all they have is hatred for others that binds them together!
Ironical thing is that the original moulders of Paki hate filled societal norms - the Mohajirs in East/West Pakistan the Bengalis all got their asses kicked by the rich & powerful Punjabis in the 50s & 60s. From 70s onwards the 'bikmanga' Pakistan needed Saudi money to feed itself - but the Wahabi/Salafi money came with the precondition that all non-Sunni sects be discriminated....as such Ahmaddiyas & Shias who helped create Paki land got their asses kicked too.

Net-net, whatever you guys are going through is your own karma getting back at you. The world at large (including India) doesn't give a rat's ass about Pakis! They would all love to ignore that Pakis even exist and go on with their peaceful lives............unfortunately, Pakis can't swallow that, Pakis have to create bloodshed around the world just to get some attention!

 

[garg_bharat]

Enquirer, Gandhi or Congress party did not create Pakistan. Congress only agreed to it. Pakistan was created by the British; and only reason was what you see today. Pakistan was created for a destructive fight between Hindu and Muslim; so that British can rule again over what is left.

Unfortunately British have declined over 72 years since 1947, so much that they do not have enough military strength to execute this plan.

I believe that this plan would have succeeded IF India did not go overtly nuclear in 1998. Now an added factor is far increased economic strength of India which has put paid to Pakistan's military parity.

India is still at risk from terrorism. BUT terrorism is not an existential risk for India.

 

[garg_bharat]

I see this noise that Pakistan has more nukes compared to India. I believe this information from IISS is deception.

I believe India has moved to deliverable nukes from "devices". My opinion is that Indian nukes are now mounted on missiles; and are ready to use. Pure numbers are meaningless. It is deliverable which counts.

The actual number India has is closely guarded secret.

The presence of nukes makes certain military moves very risky. I guess Paki army realizes this as survival of Paki State is critical to execution of British plan.

 

[mystic avatar]

jinah made the right decision because congress already rejected our rights.

What rights were rejected?? Terrorism? Halala? Muslims enjoy equal or in some case better rights in India than some Hindus.

muslims were clever and they planned for a seperate homeland.

Muslim always ask for separate state in every part of the world as Islam is incompatible with civilized human society.

look at india today.there is no major political party of muslims in india.

Muslims in India don't need a separate political party because every party except BJP has bend over backwards to support Muslims.

last night,iaf sent large package of fighter jets towards border.my question is what do you want now?

PKMB