India Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistan's Tactical Nukes

[porky_kicker]

Regarding usage of nukes by India , generally people including many informed ones are off the mark.

I have read papers from DRDO / SFC which war gamed such scenarios using mathematical models and matrices and what not . 90 % went above my head because of the mathematics involved , I tried to correlate with US models using open source research papers and declassified papers.

The options for counter value and counter force , the number of warheads for each , the yield proscribed for each target in conjunction with the weather models , the terrain models and the estimated redundancy and survivability etc will surprise all of you.

Let me give you a hint - India uses a 2 man crew for authentication and launch delegation. Quiz - which indian company manufactures the high security arming keys ?

It's similar to US and came as a surprise to me. In the event of break down of chain of command under nuclear attack there is a provision which allows for something let's name as ' drastic measures ' , about which I have no idea. I got the idea from the paper.

One model was describing how indian armoured columns in a deep thrust into porkistan would maneuver towards objectives hugging porky cities and population centres and water bodies etc as the opportunities arose rather than enter the cities or the population centres etc , inorder to negate a possible porky nuclear strike on the Indian formations , because it would be counter productive to them , leading to massive civilian causalities , poisoning of water bodies , destruction of life critical infra etc while the NBC protected indian formations will suffer lesser damage. I will stop now, said too much.

This should give a idea of how stupid the porkistani threat of using nukes inside porkistan against invading indian armoured columns. It is nothing but a bluff , even if they are stupid enough to use it , they will destroy themselves mostly with the added bonus of inviting definitive counterforce strikes and then countervalue strikes as the case maybe if escalation is deemed required for deterrence.

Anyways the funny thing is I never knew mathematics was so destructive.

 

[Mikesingh]

I agree with you.we will never hand over our citizen to india.azhar was banned based on hijacking and not terrorism in india.you feel that he is terrorist but you aren't giving us credible evidence.credible evidence means transmission intercepts.
Extinction of Pakistan means extinction of india.we told you thousand times that we know your military superiority and large number of missiles and iaf jets.we planned our game in a way so that we can also destroy you completely before our own extinction.

Lol! You made me laugh so hard, I spilt coffee on my keyboard! Damn!

Pakistan has 8 cities with more than a million people, and 59 cities with between 100,000 and 1 million people, These are Pak's main important cities. A counter value strike will require 67 nukes of nominal yield to send you to extinction.

India has 40 cities with more than a million people,and 396 cities with between 100,000 and 1 million people. You would need almost 440 nukes to cause some destruction. Seeing that 20% will get though the AD environment, you would need more than 2000 nukes!!

And India has a land mass 4 times the size of Pak. How many delivery systems do you have to reach most of these cities which are far away from your nuke launch sites? Almost zilch. Your Shaheens have failed frequently and it is said that their CEP is more than 26 kms as they still have the old North Korean guidance system!! Lol!

And your short range Nasrs are duff!! Having yields of between 1 and 5 kt they are as useless as tits on a boar hog!!

So you have no hope in hell of destroying India. You don't have the resources to do that and never will. Laymen like you and and your mullahs are living in a world of delusions. Get out of your cocoons and smell the coffee. You need to do some hard calculations before spewing nonsense.

 

[porky_kicker]

My last post on this topic

The post above mentions this

Seeing that 20% will get though the AD environment

In that case india ka gan mara gaya permanently lol .

AFAIK indian posture in any possible scenario is to take out any TELs / assets the moment they move out of their storage locations , infact the WMD sites / the C2 sites / the pre surveyed launch sites will be taken out on priority. Depending on the criticality of the situation , conventional or non conventional means would be used.

The possibility that even a single nuke can end up in India is not an option . I repeat not an option .

And here people are taking 20% strike going through , then what will happen , we as a nation will be finished for a long time to come.

A nuke dropped on a single indian city will destroy the country economically for a very long time. Lawlessness will breakout everywhere etc etc.

 

[hit&run]

The idea of punishing Pakistan quickly post-terror attack, before international pressure mounts was a media creation and many experts and analysts started to develop further theories on this ready-made premise.

Cold start initiated with an assumption of no further escalation is a jingo if not stupid way of looking at it.

Cold start's utility as a short notice adventure became catch 22 for analysts as they failed to explain its end result.

Since this doctrine's inception both in theory and practical; time and again Pakistan has conducted strategic strikes on India. Leave alone trans-border invasions even the offensive posturing has been not visible till recently.

All it tells that CSD must not be seen as an isolated entity but a trigger before Corps are assigned to the areas of interests that have been now primed by IBGs.

 

[Mikesingh]

The possibility that even a single nuke can end up in India is not an option . I repeat not an option. And here people are taking 20% strike going through , then what will happen , we as a nation will be finished for a long time to come.

It's impossible to stop 100% nukes. Even the US and Russia don't have this capability. Israel's Iron Dome touted as having the latest cutting edge technology has a KP of just 75% max.

A nuke dropped on a single indian city will destroy the country economically for a very long time. Lawlessness will breakout everywhere etc etc.

One city or two destroyed won't take us back to the stone age! We are too big for that. The small islands of Japan for example. Two cities destroyed but they became one of the biggest economies in the world within a decade.

 

[Arsalan123]

For this discussion purpose,let’s stick to non-nuclear options...


I go back to my original question. How many regiments of RAAD/Babur are there in PA inventory...

Please ensure your answer is non-rhetorical.. I am in mood for a productive discussion.

Numbers not in public domain but they are in large numbers.

 

[Mikesingh]

Numbers not in public domain but they are in large numbers.

How many duds? Numbers not in public domain but they are in large numbers.

 

[Arsalan123]

Hehehe, and we were taking you seriously...

Military numerical superiority doesn't mean survival.mark my words! This is age of modern warfare.this is age of nuclear showdown.nuclear missiles to multi purpose chemical weapons,they are all very much a reality.

 

[bose]

Military numerical superiority doesn't mean survival.mark my words! This is age of modern warfare.this is age of nuclear showdown.nuclear missiles to multi purpose chemical weapons,they are all very much a reality.

No one can use nuclear weapons at today's age leave alone Pakistanis ... Indian has proved it once again with Balakot strike ...

 

[Arsalan123]

Lol! You made me laugh so hard, I spilt coffee on my keyboard! Damn!

Pakistan has 8 cities with more than a million people, and 59 cities with between 100,000 and 1 million people, These are Pak's main important cities. A counter value strike will require 67 nukes of nominal yield to send you to extinction.

India has 40 cities with more than a million people,and 396 cities with between 100,000 and 1 million people. You would need almost 440 nukes to cause some destruction. Seeing that 20% will get though the AD environment, you would need more than 2000 nukes!!

And India has a land mass 4 times the size of Pak. How many delivery systems do you have to reach most of these cities which are far away from your nuke launch sites? Almost zilch. Your Shaheens have failed frequently and it is said that their CEP is more than 26 kms as they still have the old North Korean guidance system!! Lol!

And your short range Nasrs are duff!! Having yields of between 1 and 5 kt they are as useless as tits on a boar hog!!

So you have no hope in hell of destroying India. You don't have the resources to do that and never will. Laymen like you and and your mullahs are living in a world of delusions. Get out of your cocoons and smell the coffee. You need to do some hard calculations before spewing nonsense.

Yes we are screwed and India has so many nukes and we fear India hahaha.are you serious? Kindly add important strategic locations in indian ocean before adding land mass of pakistan.who say to you that pakistan fire all nuclear missiles from land? Hahahaha

 

[Arsalan123]

No one can use nuclear weapons at today's age leave alone Pakistanis ... Indian has proved it once again with Balakot strike ...

I agree.nobody will use nuclear weapon but a limited conventional war is a possibility.balakot was seen by all.we learned our lesson and use 27 Feb as a way to test indian sams.we will learn the way India operate and this is true for both sides.

 

[Arsalan123]

How many duds? Numbers not in public domain but they are in large numbers.

Too many dude too many.in large number.

 

[aghamarshana]

Yes we are screwed and India has so many nukes and we fear India hahaha.are you serious? Kindly add important strategic locations in indian ocean before adding land mass of pakistan.who say to you that pakistan fire all nuclear missiles from land? Hahahaha

So now u have strategic assets underwater? Sure. I own a skyscrapper in Manhattan,then!
We have boomer(s) on deterrence patrol for an assured second strike. Wat do u have? Last time I remember having read somewhere that only one Paki sub was active,rest four undergoing refit and will join after an year. Without Boomers how are u assuming Paksitan has the capability to launch nuke missiles,only God knows! How long will ur boats be underwater from the moment start of hostilities? 3 months?With a conventional sub?

 

[Daisy]

So now u have strategic assets underwater? Sure. I own a skyscrapper in Manhattan,then!
We have boomer(s) on deterrence patrol for an assured second strike. Wat do u have? Last time I remember having read somewhere that only one Paki sub was active,rest four undergoing refit and will join after an year. Without Boomers how are u assuming Paksitan has the capability to launch nuke missiles,only God knows! How long will ur boats be underwater from the moment start of hostilities? 3 months?With a conventional sub?

Chinese forgot to add interest for day dreaming ( Loans ). They would have made millions if not billions per month.

 

[ezsasa]

Numbers not in public domain but they are in large numbers.

Just so we are clear, both raad and Babur are subsonic cruise missiles,With ranges from 350-750 km.

Assuming it takes atleast 40-60 to take out an airfield, saying so because that is how many tomahawks were launched for Syrian airfield after trump election.

What do you think are the potential targets for both these cruise missiles, on western border?

Keep in mind, if cruise missiles are being launched it is somewhere on step 15-16 on escalation ladder. Where by that time IAF will be running CAPs, SAM’s will be on high alert.

 

[bose]

I agree.nobody will use nuclear weapon but a limited conventional war is a possibility.balakot was seen by all.we learned our lesson and use 27 Feb as a way to test indian sams.we will learn the way India operate and this is true for both sides.

You have not learned anything ... India did not used its SAM battery nor its SU30 MKI proper combat ...

India did now know how to jam the 120C AMRAAM missile from F-16...

 

[Daisy]

Military numerical superiority doesn't mean survival.mark my words! This is age of modern warfare.this is age of nuclear showdown.nuclear missiles to multi purpose chemical weapons,they are all very much a reality.

You need stable Economy to maintain sophisticated weapons. Wars are fought with conventional weapons , no nation would unleash their Nuclear arsenal on invading or enemy forces.
This is era of Hybrid warfare. Diplomacy , Economy , Cyber warfare , Fake News , Electoral Intervention , Sabotages be it political or military , Insurgency etc.
Remember there are no Iron Friends who are Higher than Himalayas , Sweeter than honey.
Number of Countries willing to stand with you for their interest does count , or I would prefer saying Good Diplomatic relations and Stable Economy.

 

[Arsalan123]

Just so we are clear, both raad and Babur are subsonic cruise missiles,With ranges from 350-750 km.

Assuming it takes atleast 40-60 to take out an airfield, saying so because that is how many tomahawks were launched for Syrian airfield after trump election.

What do you think are the potential targets for both these cruise missiles, on western border?

Keep in mind, if cruise missiles are being launched it is somewhere on step 15-16 on escalation ladder. Where by that time IAF will be running CAPs, SAM’s will be on high alert.

We can also fly caps.as I said above,iaf and paf will fight for air Superiority and ground troops will only move after one air Force completely dominate skies.

 

[Arsalan123]

You need stable Economy to maintain sophisticated weapons. Wars are fought with conventional weapons , no nation would unleash their Nuclear arsenal on invading or enemy forces.
This is era of Hybrid warfare. Diplomacy , Economy , Cyber warfare , Fake News , Electoral Intervention , Sabotages be it political or military , Insurgency etc.
Remember there are no Iron Friends who are Higher than Himalayas , Sweeter than honey.
Number of Countries willing to stand with you for their interest does count , or I would prefer saying Good Diplomatic relations and Stable Economy.

I understand your point.pakistan primary focus is India and therefore we have prepared ourselves to deal with any possible conflict against India.friendship of China and pakistan is bigger than anything.chinese helped pakistan even in recent ongoing conflict against India.we received a cargo full of (....) Xd.china stands with Pakistan and it's great.

 

[ezsasa]

We can also fly caps.as I said above,iaf and paf will fight for air Superiority and ground troops will only move after one air Force completely dominate skies.

The point is not about who flies CAPS...

You are assuming having RAAD and Babur gives you undeniable advantage incase of a attack.

I am saying the number of cruise missiles required to cause considerable damage on Indian side is quite high, add to this in their flight path there will be considerable obstacles to the flight of missiles and will be disrupted.

Basically what I am saying is that the capability of cruise missiles are over estimated especially against India.