Who will join SCO?: Voice of Russia
Who will join SCO?
This is the only organization that brings together Russia, China and Central Asian nations. It was initiated just after the collapse of the Soviet Union to mitigate the challenges caused by border issues. But right now the organization aims at building real economic, military and political alliances in Central Asia, Russia and China. So, it will be a united block of countries with similar political regimes and economic interests. Many of them are members of the same military blocks, and there are some anti-terrorist structures inside the SCO as well.
For American audience – SCO members are China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, whereas the observer status is held by Iran, India, Mongolia and Pakistan. Right?
Right. And at the summit that we are awaiting there'll be a new charter, which will stipulate the accession of new members. There are two members in line – Iran and India. But one of the charter articles will see that nations under international sanctions – and that is Iran – will not be allowed to join the SCO. So, in the next year or several years – that depends on negotiations – we and China will see India join this club, which will change the whole dynamics in the organization, because now the two main powers are China and Russia. But, of course, you cannot compare their economic power – China has second largest GDP and Russia's is just eighth. So, we still have one major pool of influence and dominance in this organization, and the accession of India will make it more democratic. That's why Russia and President Medvedev will lobby India's joining the organization.
Obviously, India's membership won't be a problem. But do you think that using the SCO to encourage Iran to either change or drop its nuclear plans might make it easier for Iran to join the SCO?
I don't think so, because it doesn't seem that Iran would abandon its nuclear programme for membership of any organization, be it SCO or WTO. I don't think that it will be possible for Iran to join, because Tehran wants SCO membership just to have a shield, because SCO countries have obligations to defend one another. It's not like NATO's Article 5, but still. So, Tehran expects the SCO accession to help it deal with the western pressure. I don't think that Moscow and Beijing want to create more problems with Washington, or Brussels, or any European capital in regard to Iran.
Apparently, Russian President Medvedev is going to meet with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Afghanistan is obviously very important in this region. What do you think his talks with Karzai will entail? What do you think they will be talking about? Obviously, about the US troops' withdrawal, but what role will Russia play in what happens after American troops are gone?
Russia tried to make an impression that it would play a role in Afghanistan, but because of obvious reasons the topic of any Russian troops returning to Afghanistan is too sensitive for Russian audience, and I don't think that any Russian leadership would consider it. In terms of economic help, Russia hasn't got sufficient funds, as for example China, or India, or the US, or any other global player to help rebuild Afghanistan. To me it seems more like a soft power game to increase Russian prominence. But there's one aspect in which Russia could be particularly helpful to Afghanistan – its weapon sales for the needs of Afghan National Forces, because, after the US troops have withdrawn, we'll need to boost the capacity of both Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police, and it's impossible without supplying them with helicopters. Russia is one of the largest manufactures, and the US and Russia have recently concluded a deal of purchasing nearly 30 Russian Mi helicopters. So, maybe one of the topics will be shipments of Russian weaponry to Afghanistan.
Religious extremism, terrorism and drug trafficking in Afghanistan affect the entire region. How do you think President Medvedev will deal with it when talking to Hamid Karzai?
Obviously, the problem of Afghan narcotrafficking doesn't come from Afghanistan alone, but it also depends on the state of the southern Russian borders. He may raise this issue, but I don't think that it will be possible for Karzai to answer something practical. They may come back to the question of capacity building in Afghanistan, because it's Kabul, which should be in power to control the country, so that this drugs threat for Russia would be mitigated.
Let's talk about investment now. I understand China has become the biggest investor in Afghanistan. And obviously, when US troops pull out, other countries may try to come in to take advantage of its natural resources. For instance, there's a 3-billion-dollar contract to develop a copper mine that China has invested in. Do you think that Russia will be following behind to try to take advantage of the natural resources in Afghanistan?
I don't think so, because Russia is already a resource superpower. It has a lot of resources itself to invest into other countries' resources. And now, as you know, President Medvedev is launching a campaign to attract foreign investors to Russia, because we don't have sufficient capital to explore oil and gas fields in Siberia. So, I don't think that Russian companies will go to Afghanistan. What our companies can do is to participate in infrastructural projects, because we have around 100 infrastructural projects built by Soviet specialists in 1970-1980s, and Russian companies have preserved technical documentation for them. So, they made up about 50% of Afghanistan's GDP, and if the Afghanistan government wants to rebuild them, I suppose Russian companies could provide them with some financial and technical assistance.