Greece - SYRIZA, in the margin of the Eurozone

sob

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I am amazed at the audacity of the Greeks that they are playing the victim card here.

Collapse of Euro will not have a major impact on Germany. They will go back to the DM which was stronger than the Euro and they will continue to be the economic powerhouse of Europe.
 

pmaitra

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'Merkel has lost' - how the Greece referendum vote split Europe

Greece's rejection of a cash-for-austerity package in its referendum on Sunday has opened old rifts between European rivals

By Gordon Rayner, Chief Reporter

“Merkel has lost. Germany has lost.” Not the reaction from a rabidly left-wing Greek tabloid to the country’s referendum vote, but from Benoit Hamon, the former French education minister and ally of Francois Hollande.

For Mr Hamon, the resounding “no” vote was “an opportunity for Francois Hollande to resume leadership” in Europe. Old divisions run deep across the continent, and the Greek crisis brought them right back to the surface as Europe’s financial superpowers squabbled like children at playtime.

Watching gleefully from the wings was the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who took the opportunity to stir the pot by ringing the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and offering to strengthen “Russian-Greek co-operation”.

With Greece’s membership of the euro now hanging by a thread, it became increasingly clear as the day wore on that Greece’s present will decide the whole continent’s future.

Major banks now rate a Greek exit from the euro as a probability. The man installed as Greece’s new finance minister believes a Grexit would lead to the “break-up” of the Eurozone. Elsewhere there was talk of humanitarian aid, rather than cash, for the Greek people. Doom-laden language was easy to come by. Answers were not.

Even before the no voters had slept off the hangover from their street celebrations of the night before, the day began with a surprise announcement by Yanis Varoufakis, the shaven-headed Greek finance minister. He told his Twitter followers at 6.31 that he had resigned, saying simply:


Greek economic crisis: live

Greece’s rejection of further austerity measures by an unexpectedly high 61 per cent had vindicated his hard line with European creditors, but Mr Tsipras saw him, ultimately, as an obstacle in the road to a new deal with Eurozone countries over Greece's 330 billion euro debt mountain.

Mr Varoufakis said in a typically bullish blog that: “I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.”

In the rest of Europe, the referendum result had gone down like a rotten oyster, but Greece had won praise from such dubious admirers as the former Cuban president Fidel Castro, who said Greece "has won admiration across Latin America" and Bolivia’s president Evo Morales, who called the referendum a defeat against “European imperialism”.

Predictions of a collapse in share prices on European stock exchanges did not materialise; the FTSE opened 1.07 per cent down, but major banks rated the chances of a Grexit at 70 per cent, and Stephanie Flanders, the former BBC economics editor who now works for JP Morgan, said: “A messy Greek exit is now more likely than not.”


The Greek people had spoken, now it was time to hear from for the most powerful woman in the world (and the least popular woman in Greece).

Angela Merkel, a woman constantly trying to reconcile her own passion for European union with German taxpayers’ exasperation at propping up Greece’s corrupt economy, stood firm. She said she would wait to see what proposals the Greek government came up with, but saw no reason to enter negotiations on a new bailout programme as things stood. She said as much in a lunchtime phone call to Mr Tsipras, who said he would be presenting a Greek proposal for a deal at Tuesday’s crucial Eurozone summit.


The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet Mrs Merkel and other Eurozone leaders on Tuesday (Getty)

Germany’s economics minister Sigmar Gabriel was rather less measured. He made it clear that unless Mr Tsipras compromised, Greece would only be offered food and medicine.

"For the Greek population, life will get even more difficult in the coming days and weeks,” he said. “The definitive insolvency of the country now is an imminent threat. We must now cover their needs very quickly, the people there need help and we should not refuse it just because we're unhappy with the result of the referendum.” This meant “humanitarian aid”, not more cash, raising the image of food parcels being handed out on the streets of Athens.

“We can not endanger the stability of the monetary union by Greece enforcing their own national interests unconditionally against 18 other [countries],” he went on. Debt relief would not be offered.

It was a flat contradiction of Alexis Tsipras’s position after the referendum. He had said: “This is not a mandate of rupture with Europe, but a mandate that bolsters our negotiating strength to achieve a viable deal.


Exit Yanis Varoufakis (Getty)

"This time, the debt will be on the negotiating table. It is now up to European prime ministers, meeting tomorrow, to propose any new bailout deal including on debt.”

Meanwhile the European Commission president Valdis Dombrovskis dismissed the referendum as illegal and warned the Greeks that “there is no easy way out of this crisis”. He refused to say whether he expected Greece to stay in the euro.

The European Central Bank had even harsher words for Greece. Ewald Nowotny, a member of the ECB’s governing council, said Greece’s suggestion of a deal within two days was “illusory” and that the no vote had “not made it easier for the ECB to act”.

And the Council of Europe – which is independent of the European Union – warned that the referendum did not meet international standards as it was called with one week’s notice and the lengthy question on the proposed bailout was unclear.

France, it seemed, was Greece's last ally. Mr Hamon’s claims that “Merkel has lost” reflected a desire in the country to capitalise on Greece’s woes by tilting the balance of power between the two main architects of the European Union towards Paris.


The French Minister of the Economy, Emmanuel Macron, rather crassly delved into Germany’s troubled past by urging Europe to avoid another "Versailles moment" with Greece, referring to the humiliating post-war conditions imposed on a defeated Germany in 1919 that later allowed the Nazis to flourish.

With such dark rhetoric circulating, the intervention of Vladimir Putin was the last thing Angela Merkel would have been hoping for.

The Russian President would be all too happy to drive a wedge between European countries, and in a phone call with Mr Tsipras he “expressed support for the Greek people in overcoming the difficulties facing the country”, and discussed the "further development of Russian-Greek cooperation".

It was Mr Tsipras who had initiated the call to Putin, to crank up the pressure ahead of crucial Eurozone meetings, but it nevertheless led to talk among some analysts of Greece joining the Eurasian Union, the Moscow-led trade bloc that includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Armenia.


David Cameron, viewing events from outside the Eurozone, was distinctly non-committal. He spoke on the phone to Mrs Merkel and met George Osborne and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to discuss the crisis, but his spokesman said: "He thinks that clearly Greece and the Eurozone need to sit down and talk through the implications of the result. They need to find a sustainable solution. It is a matter for Greece and Eurozone partners."

By mid-afternoon Greece had a new finance minister, but it was not immediately obvious whether he would be any more amenable than his predecessor.

Euclid Tsakalotos, a 55-year-old Marxist who was educated at Oxford, was never a fan of joining the euro, and has predicted that a Grexit from the single currency would lead to the break-up of the Eurozone.

George Osborne’s take on the day’s developments as he addressed Parliament at 4pm was that “the prospects of a happy resolution of this crisis are sadly diminishing”. He urged British holidaymakers going to Greece to take plenty of cash and their own supplies of medicines.

The ECB announced that it had extended emergency liquidity assistance to keep Greece’s financial institutions ticking over, but Greece faces at least one more agonising day in limbo, and its banks will remain shut until Wednesday.


Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande sat down to dinner at the Elysee Palace in Paris, having issued a brief statement in which Mrs Merkel stressed the importance of Greece taking "responsibility" for reforming its economy and Mr Hollande told Europe to show "solidarity" with Greece.

Their brief statement distilled the divisions between the two countries in how to handle the Greek problem, and set the tone for a crucial series of talks on Tuesday.

They will begin with a Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers, and culminate tonight with a summit of the 19 leaders of the Eurozone countries.

If those talks fail, default on an ECB debt repayment due on July 20 could finally end Greece’s membership of the euro, and put the whole future of the single currency in doubt.
 

pmaitra

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Unintentionally, the Greeks have done themselves a favour. Soon, they will be out of the euro

In citing the example of German debt relief to justify another bailout for Greece, the French economist Thomas Piketty fails to see that you cannot have debt cancellation without asset write-downs, which devaluation would deliver in the least painful way


London Conference of 1953 saw Germany's external debts substantially written off

For a change, I find myself in some agreement with the French economist Thomas Piketty, at least in terms of what he has to say today on the Greek debt standoff, if very little else. However, he’s also missed one rather vital point about debt cancellation which goes to the heart of why this crisis cannot be resolved within the straightjacket of monetary union.

One man’s debt is another man’s asset – they are two halves of the same coin. It follows that for the debt to be cancelled, the asset must also suffer a substantial devaluation. This is what many Greeks, including apparently the Greek government, fail to understand, or rather refuse to acknowledge. They want to be forgiven their debts, but they also want to remain within European Monetary Union, with the luxury this provides of a German exchange rate, which in effect underwrites the value of their assets and purchasing power abroad.

The two things are completely incompatible, for as long as Greece remains part of the euro, there is no market mechanism for imposing the haircut on assets prices that must accompany any write down of debt. Here's an example of what I mean. At the height of Britain's financial crisis, lots of wealthy Italians - and Greeks - came and bought prime London property, and it is easy to see why. Sterling prices had fallen around a quarter in nominal terms, and the pound had fallen by a further quarter against the euro. In effect, the euro buyers were getting the properties for around a half what they would have had to pay prior to the crisis. By the sake token, the vendour was in euro terms accepting a 50pc haircut.

With much finger pointing, Professor Piketty makes a lot of the tired old truism that Germany had a great deal of debt forgiveness after the second world war, allowing the defeated nation to wipe the slate clean and begin again. France similarly managed to wriggle out of many of its debt obligations. Britain, it should be said, had no such debt relief, which arguably explains much of its post war economic malaise. Europe has failed to learn the lessons of its own history, Professor Piketty insists.

"When I hear the Germans say that they maintain a very moral stance about debt and strongly believe that debts must be repaid, then I think: what a huge joke! Germany is the country that has never repaid its debts. It has no standing to lecture other nations".

Mmmm. In fact, the two situations are completely different. Under the London Agreement on German External Debts of 1953, around a half of Germany's external debts - substantially the legacy of the first world war - were written off and extremely generous terms were granted for repayment of the balance. Yet the assets that notionally backed these debts had already suffered a calamitous meltdown, having been all but wiped out by the destruction of the second world war and the post war hyperinflation. The debt write-off merely recognised the underlying reality of a severely depleted asset base. This has not happened in Greece. Membership of Europe's currency union prevents it. Inflation is non existent, and asset prices are sustained by the homogenising effect of the single currency.

The trouble with the European take on the Greek debt crisis, and this applies even to those like Professor Piketty who recognises that something has gone seriously wrong, is that nobody can bring themselves to accept that monetary union has failed. The upshot is that ever more contorted thought patterns and solutions are required to reconcile the irreconcilable.

Does Greece need debt relief? Obviously so. All its creditors know this, and have already reconciled themselves to having lost most, if not all, their money. Does austerity need to be eased to help the Greek economy get back on its feet? Of course it does. But can this be achieved within the confines of monetary union? With generous creditors, temporarily perhaps, but it can never be a long term solution. Instead, any asset writedowns will have to be done cruelly, by haircutting the depositors of Greek banks. Since the rich ones have already got their money out, it will be the middle and lower classes that will be hit most by this process.

There is a good reason why sensible countries have free floating exchange rates – it is because they provide a natural market mechanism for hair cutting external creditors, restoring competitiveness, and adjusting the external value of assets appropriately. Once these adjustments have been made, foreign capital will come flooding back in search of a bargain. And it is why the Greek debt crisis has become so intractable. It cannot be solved in a monetary union of fiscally sovereign states.

Unintentionally, Greeks have done themselves - and perhaps the rest of Europe too - a favour by voting no. They have been misled by their Government, not to mention a whole host of famous American, salt water economists - Sachs, Krugman, Stiglitz - into thinking they can somehow bring the rest of Europe to heel by facing their creditors down. They cannot. (To be fair, Krugman seems to appreciate better than the other two the vital importance of exchange rate in debt relief). By voting no, they have put themselves on a path to exit and the unilateral debt relief of default. Like Germany in 1953, this offers Greeks the possibility of a new beginning, and with a bit of luck, they might also have fatally wounded the entire euro project. It's been a long time coming, but there's a good chance that economics is finally about to triumph, as inevitably it always does, over delusional political will.

 

pmaitra

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Greece creditors will gain nothing from toppling Europe-lover Yanis Varoufakis

If lenders think Varoufakis's touted successor will be a pushover, they are set to be disappointed. He shares little of his predecessor's European idealism

Yanis Varoufakis was sacrificed to placate the European creditor powers.

Germany let it be known that there could be no possible hope of an accord on bail-out conditions as long as this wild spirit remained finance minister of Greece.

In a moment of condign fury, Mr Varoufakis had accused EMU leaders of "terrorism", responsible for deliberately precipitating the collapse of the banks in one of its own member states. (This is objectively true, of course)

"I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride," he signed off in his parting shot, 'Minister no More'.
But then he was starting to harbour 'dangerous' thoughts. When I asked him before the vote whether he was prepared to contemplate seizing direct control of the Greek banking system, a restoration of sovereign monetary instruments, Grexit, and a return to the drachma -- if the ECB maintains its liquidity blockade, forcing the country to its knees - he thought for a while and finally answered yes.

"I am sick of these bigots," he said.
His fear was that Greece did not have the technical competence to carry out an orderly exit from EMU, and truth be told, Syriza has already raided every possible source of funds within the reach of the Greek state - bar a secret stash still at the central bank, controlled by Syriza's political foes - and therefore has no emergency reserves to prevent the crisis spinning out of control in the first traumatic weeks.


"I wish we had the drachma, and we'd never entered monetary union. But once you are in, you don’t get out without a catastrophe,” he said in May.
It appears that Euclid Tsakalotos will take over as finance minister. Another brilliant economist - educated at St Paul's and Oxford, with a Celtic wife - he has earned a reputation as safe pair of hands since becoming chief negotiator in the debt talks.
But be careful what you wish for. If the creditors think that he will be a push-over - more willing to accept terms that fall short of genuine debt relief - they are likely to be disappointed. He is comes from the radical Marxist wing of Syriza, and shares little of Mr Varoufakis's European idealism.
Scratch a little and you start to discover a eurosceptic who never wanted Greece to join the euro, indeed who already foresaw with remarkable prescience in this paper in 1998 that EMU would not bring about the convergence of the core and peripheral countries. He was miles ahead of the amateurs religiously touting the benefits of EMU.
"I do believe if Greece was to leave, the eurozone would break up because it changes a monetary union into a hard-peg."

The crucial point is that EMU is an "irrevocable promise" that no country will ever devalue again. Once that is breached, financial markets will not lightly believe in the pledge again.
 

pmaitra

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There is a precedence of a monetary union, and that is the Scandinavian Monetary Union. This was however, pegged to gold. Can anyone fill in, in summary, as to why this monetary union ended? I know how it ended, but the question is, why?
 

Zebra

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Listen beggars,you have no money at all,how will your govt pay you ? With what money ? :D
I hope russia will be here to help you,beause no one will. :bounce:
You think you will escape without paying your debts ? Keep dreaming.
Sir, if they try to escape, then what will happen....?
 

jouni

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No need to find any deeper meanings....Greeks fixed books, borrowed money and inflated public sector like there was no tomorrow. Now they reap the whirlwind....
 

salute

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@Rowdy what you have to be so against greece,you are indian living in europe,

its understandable about @Gabriel92 and europeans being angry with greece,

@arpakola maybe the politics behind this voting is to charge greeks with nationalism so that greeks with unity would be ready to break up with european union and so it will be easy for greek government to do so and join brics or others by saying its peoples mandate,
yes or no that changes nothing else except this,just politics to get peoples mandate,

from greece side it was a deal or its like kind of request for money at first,
but now greeks,if they are acting like by the power of new found nationalism by this voting they can ask for money like they owned it, they wrong,
but maybe greeks are not thinking this way,

if germany or eu were not ready to accept their request at first,
they definitely not gonna accept now,
because from germany or eu point of view now its kind of like extortion.
 

arpakola

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No need to find any deeper meanings....Greeks fixed books, borrowed money and inflated public sector like there was no tomorrow. Now they reap the whirlwind....
yes .. you are right on that
Greeks live like there is no tomorrow. - << carpe diem >>
that was always a stand for life, life is the today. In the tomorrow there is always the death around.. to be expected and not be scared of. The love for life of today leads to the scare-less of death..of tomorrow.
have a nice day
 
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salute

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Nothing personal against greece .. I just hate leftists.
:lol:
I love greek yogurt and their chicks are alright. ;)
oh yeah chicks....chicks from anywhere in the world are alright. :)
 

Gabriel92

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@Rowdy @jouni
Lol. :bounce:

-
A few years ago, there were two mayors, one Spanish and the other Greek. The Spanish mayor invited the Greek mayor to stay with him and he entertained him in his vast plush mansion. The Greek mayor was astonished – “how did you afford a place like this?”

The Spanish mayor replied “do you see that bridge over there (it had one lane with traffic lights at each end)?” The Greek mayor nodded yes. The Spanish mayor added “Well, the EU funding originally provided was for a four-lane dual carriageway”.The Greek mayor eventually returned home deep in thought.

A couple of years later, the Spanish mayor made a reciprocal trip to visit the Greek mayor, who by now was living in a much more impressive abode, even down to the gold taps. The Spanish mayor was dumbfounded - “how on earth was this done?”. The Greek mayor smiled and said “do you see that bridge over there?” The Spanish mayor took a good look around and eventually conceded “No, I don’t.” :bounce:
 

sob

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Spain and Greece were both in similar situation and a couple of years back both the countries started taking austerity measures and to reform the economy. This year Spain promises to be the fastest growing European economy and Greece--??????
 

jouni

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We know now where "the soft underbelly of Europe is". Regarding Greece I believe that big part plays the Orthodox/Slav mentality that individual does not have to take responsability of his/her own actions....

Fitst comes family, friends, clan, church....state and government are only for trying to exploit or scam as much as possible. That is their mentality.
 

Rowdy

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Next is portugal ... :lol: now I really don't like that place...
Hope it gets a lot more pain than greece.
 

arpakola

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@Rowdy @jouni
Lol. :bounce:

-
A few years ago, there were two mayors, one Spanish and the other Greek. The Spanish mayor invited the Greek mayor to stay with him and he entertained him in his vast plush mansion. The Greek mayor was astonished – “how did you afford a place like this?”

The Spanish mayor replied “do you see that bridge over there (it had one lane with traffic lights at each end)?” The Greek mayor nodded yes. The Spanish mayor added “Well, the EU funding originally provided was for a four-lane dual carriageway”.The Greek mayor eventually returned home deep in thought.

A couple of years later, the Spanish mayor made a reciprocal trip to visit the Greek mayor, who by now was living in a much more impressive abode, even down to the gold taps. The Spanish mayor was dumbfounded - “how on earth was this done?”. The Greek mayor smiled and said “do you see that bridge over there?” The Spanish mayor took a good look around and eventually conceded “No, I don’t.” :bounce:
bridges building is not within mayors duties or jurisdiction in Greece..
Actually what happened so far is that Germans sold 2 Subs to Greece , TILTING .. !!
http://www.newsbomb.gr/ellada/apoka...si-stithikan-ta-germanika-ypovryxia-tis-mizas
accused for bribery . Siemens also.. Hristoforakos who was the middle man is prosecuted in Greece and is hiding in Germany under protection from german authorities

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/germans-may-find-it-hard-to-sell-their-subs/article4599258.ece
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703636404575352991108208712
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=470954
 

arpakola

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We know now where "the soft underbelly of Europe is". Regarding Greece I believe that big part plays the Orthodox/Slav mentality that individual does not have to take responsability of his/her own actions....

Fitst comes family, friends, clan, church....state and government are only for trying to exploit or scam as much as possible. That is their mentality.
Bingo !!!!!! you fount it at last..
:hippo:

Fitst comes family, friends, clan
Yiap..
what's wrong about that..?
 
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