Egypt Revolution Developments

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Oracle

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Saudi Arabia offers to support Egypt if US cuts aid

Amid growing pressure on the embattled Egypt [ Images ]ian president to quit office, Saudi Arabia has threatened to prop up Hosni Mubarak [ Images ] if the United States tries to force a swift change of regime in Egypt, the media reported on Thursday.
In a testy personal telephone call on January 29, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah told United States President Barack Obama [ Images ] not to humiliate Mubarak and warned that he would step in to bankroll Egypt if the US withdrew its aid programme, worth $ 1.5 billion annually, The Times newspaper reported.

America's closest ally in the Gulf made clear that the Egyptian president must be allowed to stay on to oversee the transition towards peaceful democracy and then leave with dignity. "Mubarak and King Abdullah are not just allies, they are close friends, and the king is not about to see his friend cast aside and humiliated," a senior source in the Saudi capital told the newspaper.

Obama has spoken with the 86-year-old Saudi monarch about the current situation in Egypt, where the massive pro-democracy protests against Mubarak entered into its third week with no resolution in sight. "The US President emphasised the importance of taking immediate steps toward an orderly transition that is meaningful, lasting, legitimate, and responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people," the White House said in a statement in Washington.

The US has expressed its dissatisfaction over the steps taken by the Egyptian government to meet the demands of the pro-democracy protestors and warned that these protests are going to grow bigger unless the Mubarak regime takes some concrete steps.

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CAIRO: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak looked likely to step down on Thursday in response to more than two weeks of nationwide protests against his 30-year rule.

The news provoked loud and emotional cheers in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the focal point for pro-democracy demonstrations.

Asked if Mubarak would step down, an Egyptian official told Reuters: "Most probably". State television said that Mubarak would speak to the nation from his Cairo palace on Thursday.

The BBC quoted the head of Mubarak's political party as saying that the president might go.

"I spoke to the new secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party, Hossan Badrawi," a BBC reporter said. "He said: 'I hope the president is handing over his powers tonight'."

Major General Hassan Roweny told tens of thousands of protesters in Tahrir, or Liberation, Square: "Everything you want will be realised."

People chanted: "The people demand the fall of the regime, The regime has fallen".

Others sang: "Civilian, civilian. We don't want it military" -- a call for a freely elected civilian government. It remains to be seen how far the armed forces, which have provided Egypt's post-colonial rulers for six decades, are ready to accept that.

General Roweny urged the crowds to sing the national anthem and keep Egypt safe. Tanks and other armoured vehicles stood by.

The head of the US Central Intelligence Agency also said it was likely Mubarak would step down in the next few hours.

"There's a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening, which would be significant in terms of where the, hopefully, orderly transition in Egypt takes place," Leon Panetta told a congressional hearing in Washington.

He added that he did not have "specific word" that Mubarak, a long-time ally of Washington, was about to resign.

Joining a chorus saying that Mubarak's departure could be imminent, Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq told the BBC that the 82-year-old strongman may step down.

POVERTY AND REPRESSION

The president has been buffeted by widespread protests against poverty, repression and corruption that began on Jan. 25 in an unprecedented display of frustration at his autocratic rule. It was partly inspired by the example of Tunisia, where street protesters toppled the strongman president on Jan. 14.

Hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets to demand that Mubarak quit and clashes between protesters and security forces have killed at least 300 people.

Mubarak has clung on to power, promising on Feb. 1 to step down in September. But that was not enough to end an uprising many now are calling the Egyptian Revolution.

On Thursday afternoon, Egypt's military announced it was taking measures to preserve the nation and aspirations of the people after a meeting of the Higher Army Council.

The meeting of the Higher Army Council was headed by the defence minister and Mubarak was not apparently present, according to television footage.

Alaa el-Seyyed, 26, a member of a protest organising committee asked, about possibility of the army taking control said: "It is an accomplishment for us. But we will stay until all of our demands are realised -- democracy and freedom."

"He is going down!" Zeina Hassan said on Facebook. "The current Egyptian army is a client of the USA and Israel. It is not a national army. It doesn't deserve our respect," Mahmoud El Lozy tweeted.

"We want a civilian state, civilian state, civilian state!" Doaa Abdelaal said on Twitter, an Internet service that many see as a vital catalyst for the protests in Tunisia and Egypt that have electrified oppressed populations across the Arab world.

"The army statement is wishy-washy. But we are confident that the day has come. Mubarak will step down, the people have won," said protester Mohamed Anees, who is in his late 20s.

FRIDAY PROTEST

"The army is worried that tomorrow on Friday the people will overpower state buildings and the army will not be able to fire back," Anees said. "The army now is pressuring Mubarak to resolve the situation."

Organisers had promised another major push on the streets on Friday when protesters said they planned to move on to the state radio and television building in "The Day of Martyrs" dedicated to the dead.

Washington pressured Mubarak to speed up the pace of reform but stopped short of demanding the resignation of the president of the country, which has a 1979 peace treaty with Israel and an army which receives about $1.3 billion in US aid a year.

CIA director Leon Panetta said on Thursday he has received reports that Hosni Mubarak will step down this evening but does not have confirmation the embattled Egyptian president will actually leave office. "I've received reports that, possibly, Mubarak might do that," Panetta told a congressional intelligence hearing. "We have not gotten specific word that he, in fact, will do that."

"The army is facing the choice between standing with Mubarak and perhaps being swept aside or going with the popular flow. I think they will give away Mubarak almost as a fig leaf. Possibly (vice-president Omar) Suleiman as well, although he is not as unpopular as Mubarak. There is an element of regime preservation going on here from the army elite," Julien Barnes-Dacey, a Middle East analyst at Control Risks in London, told Reuters.

The possibility of unrest spreading to other authoritarian states in the oil-rich region has kept oil prices firm.

Read more: Hosni Mubarak to step down tonight: Reports - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...Reports/articleshow/7469980.cms#ixzz1Da1m3k7s
 

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Egypt revolt set to flare as Mubarak clings to power

CAIRO: Furious Egyptian demonstrators vowed to launch their most spectacular protest yet in Cairo on Friday to demand the immediate departure of President Hosni Mubarak and his newly anointed deputy.

Many tens of thousands of citizens thronged Tahrir Square in the heart of the capital late Thursday hoping to hear the 82-year-old strongman step down. Instead he delegated presidential power to Vice President Omar Suleiman.

Mubarak said he would remain nominally in charge until September, and vowed he would one day die in Egypt rather than seek exile, infuriating protesters.

The reaction was immediate, angry and dismayed.

His televised speech was met with angry chants of "Down, Down with Mubarak" among the more than 200,000 people who packed Cairo's Tahrir Square on the 17th day of massive nationwide protests demanding the strongman's overthrow.

Many of the protesters called for an immediate general strike and angrily addressed the army, which had deployed large numbers of troops and tanks around the square: "Egyptian army, the choice is now, the regime or the people!"

Following the speech, the bulk of the crowd began to disperse, but most vowed to return on Friday, which has already been declared a "day of rage".

A hard core of several thousand protesters was to remain in the sprawling tented encampment that has occupied the square since January 28.

"We won't leave until he leaves," declared 32-year-old accountant Ayman Shawky. "I don't think it's stupidity, it's arrogance. He lost his last chance to leave with his dignity intact."

Hopes had run high that Mubarak would step down immediately after the military leadership had announced hours earlier that it would intervene to ensure the country's security and see that the people's "legitimate" demands were met.

But by the end of his speech Mubarak remained president.

Delegating his powers to his former intelligence chief Suleiman," a frail Mubarak said in a scratchy voice. "I have decided to delegate power to the vice president based on the constitution."

"I am conscious of the dangers of this crossroad... and this forces us to prioritise the higher interests of the nation."

He went on to take a swipe at the United States and other countries that have pushed him to accelerate a transition to democracy, saying: "I have never bent to foreign diktats.

"I have always preserved peace and worked for Egypt and its stability."

Speaking after Mubarak, Suleiman told the protesters to go home.

But as they began peacefully filing out of Tahrir Square, the chants grew darker. "To the palace we are heading, martyrs by the millions!" they shouted.

Earlier, the square had been bathed in a carnival atmosphere, as many tens of thousands of Egyptians gathered to celebrate what they hoped would be Mubarak's final speech of a three-decade-long autocratic reign.

When they realised he was refusing to step down, the mood changed and deep-seated anger rose to the surface.

The crowd chanted "Neither Mubarak nor Suleiman!" as one elderly woman moaned: "The old man just won't give up power."

"He is still speaking to us as if we were fools," said Ali Hassan. "He is a general defeated on the battlefield who will not retreat before inflicting as many casualties as he can."

Earlier, tens of thousands of Egyptian workers striking nationwide had swelled the protesters' ranks, increasing the chances Friday's demonstrations would be the biggest yet.

Immediately after Mubarak's speech, US President Barack Obama called an emergency meeting of his national security team.

Obama watched Mubarak's nationwide address aboard Air Force One, hours after telling a crowd in Michigan that history was unfolding in Egypt, amid rumours and reports at the time that the 82-year-old Arab strongman would step down.

There was no immediate comment from senior US officials on Mubarak's speech and Obama declined to answer shouted questions from reporters after he exited his Marine One helicopter and marched into the Oval Office.

But CNN quoted one unnamed official as saying the speech was "not what we were told would happen, not what we wanted to happen."

Read more: Egypt revolt set to flare as Mubarak clings to power - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-power-/articleshow/7472759.cms#ixzz1DdWshXdE
 

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Mohamed ElBaradei: 'Egypt will explode'

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Major Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei warned of potential violent unrest after President Hosni Mubarak announced late Thursday he would not step down before September elections.
Mubarak "is gambling with his country" in order to stay at the helm, ElBaradei told CNN's Wolf Blitzer.
He reiterated the message of his Twitter account, which read, "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now."
Major clashes between the people and the army, which Egyptians traditionally believe has been on their side, would be devastating, said ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Key players in Egypt
ElBaradei: Army must save Egypt Hosni Mubarak: I am not leaving Egypt Official: Mubarak to yield power to VP Hosni Mubarak: In his words
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ElBaradei's outlook had changed since hours before, when Egyptians, including thousands packed in Cairo's Tahrir Square, expected Mubarak to step down rather than delegate powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman.
The arrangement failed to mollify opposition leaders or those who have rallied in Tahrir Square for more than two weeks. Another mass protest is planned again Friday after prayer services.
"Mubarak is only one part of this regime," human rights activist Gigi Ibrahim, one of the Tahrir Square protesters, told CNN. "People have been here for 17 days, and they are not for Suleiman, either," Ibrahim said. "Mubarak has lost all legitimacy, and now him handing over the power to the vice president is as illegitimate as Mubarak being in power."
ElBaradei told CNN that Egyptians will not accept the new arrangement.
"Suleiman is considered to be an extension of Mubarak. They are twins. Neither of them is acceptable to the people," he said. "For the sake of their country, they should go."
ElBaradei said a leadership council and a caretaker government should rule the North African nation for one year during a transition to a more democratic process.
Mubarak's defiant remarks about foreign intervention, and his determination to see the transition through, was not what most in the Tahrir Square crowd wanted to hear.
"Get out! Get out!" many chanted as he spoke.
After the speech, parliamentary speaker Ahmed Fathi Srour told state-run Nile TV that Mubarak's move had put the authority for the day-to-day running of the government in Suleiman's hands.
The vice president referred to the past two weeks as the "revolution of the young people."
Suleiman told the protesters to go home and back to work. That had not happened by early Friday.
Yaser Fathi, one of the organizers of a post-speech protest in the northern city of Alexandria, told CNN hundreds of demonstrators marched to an Egyptian military base. They asked the armed forces to intervene and shouted that "the military must step in to get Mubarak out," Fathi said.
Khalid Abdalla, a demonstrator in Tahrir Square and star of the motion picture "The Kite Runner," said early Friday that it's "an incredibly sad moment right now." "Everyone's lost," the actor said. "People are trying to work out what more they can do."
Egyptian journalist, writer and blogger Ethar El-Katatney, appearing on CNN's "Parker Spitzer" Thursday night, likened Mubarak's speech to American television's "Father Knows Best." His earlier speech announcing he would step down in September had gained him some empathy, she said.
El-Katatney said she was worried that Friday could be "bloody" because of the people's frustration.
Nobel laureate Ahmed Zewail, a potential Egyptian presidential candidate, said he sees "several different scenarios" through which a transition could take place.
"The important thing is that the army will protect this transition until a new Constitution is in place," Zewail told CNN before the Mubarak speech. "I am very much appreciative of the fact that armed forces are controlling what's going on."
Freed cyberactivist Wael Ghonim, who emerged as a reluctant hero of Egypt's uprising, had seemed pleased with just the prospect of Mubarak leaving office. He is on leave from his marketing job with the search engine Google in Dubai and was held for 10 days during the protests.
"Revolution 2.0: Mission Accomplished," Ghonim wrote on his Twitter account earlier Thursday, before Mubarak's speech.
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/10/egypt.protests.reax/index.html?hpt=C1
 

Rage

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Here's an interesting read on the military side of things:


Analysts: 3 key moments likely drove Egypt's military

Friday, 02.11.11


WASHINGTON - Three key developments likely led the Egyptian military to abandon its support for President Hosni Mubarak after 18 days of political crisis, Obama administration officials, U.S. military officers and Mideast experts agreed Friday, even as they said they were in the dark about the exact chain of events.

-Labor protests that erupted Wednesday throughout Egypt threatened the security of the state and could have forced the army to become the nation's policeman, a role commanders did not want.

-The reaction to Mubarak's speech Thursday, when he refused to step down, was far more virulent than the military had expected and put the army in a position where it might clash with protesters to protect state property, including the presidential palace and the offices of state-run television.

-Most significantly, perhaps, some rank and file soldiers took off their uniforms and joined the protesters, threatening the order and discipline of the army itself.

Each of those developments put the military - the country's most respected institution - in an untenable position: Cracking down on protesters to preserve the economy and the state and keep Mubarak in power.

"Above all else, the Egyptian army would not want Egyptians to attack other Egyptians," said Jon Alterman, the Middle East director for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

All of the people interviewed for this story acknowledged that it's likely to be days, if not weeks, before they know exactly what drove Mubarak from power in a wild 19-hour span that left the world grasping for an explanation. Officials and officers spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the subject.

Even the Egyptian military seemed slightly bewildered. As protesters massed for what they promised would be a march on the presidential palace, the military announced at midday Friday that it would support Mubarak's plan to remain in office to guide the country's political transformation.

Then just four hours later, Mubarak's handpicked vice president, Omar Suleiman, appeared on television to announce Mubarak's resignation and the assumption of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. It wasn't for another two hours that a council spokesman made another statement - praising Mubarak for putting the country's interests above his own and saying the council was "studying the situation." He also physically saluted as he called those killed in the protests "martyrs."

(EDITORS; BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM)

The military's role in bringing the crisis to a climax was hardly a surprise. From the beginning, most analysts had agreed that, as in Tunisia last month, the Egyptian army would dictate the outcome - even as it tried to remain neutral, limiting its actions to protecting government buildings and national treasures such as the Egyptian Museum, where the artifacts of Egypt's long history are displayed.

What remains unclear is precisely at what point the Egyptian army abandoned Mubarak. Was it after his disastrous speech Thursday night in which he said "this is not about me" as thousands chanted in Tahrir Square "leave"? Or was it the next day, when Egyptians, including some soldiers, rejected Mubarak's insistence that he remain in charge?

William Quandt, a professor of Middle East studies at the University of Virginia, said he suspected that the military's generals, who owe their careers to Mubarak, had given him one last chance Thursday to make his case to the Egyptian people. Had the speech been better received, they probably would not have moved.


"There had to be some moment ... where there had to be a pause as they listened to that speech," Quandt said. "There had to be people in the military who were ready for the tipping point. Maybe they felt it happened (Friday) morning" when soldiers began abandoning posts.

Two senior administration officials told McClatchy Newspapers that they believe the tipping point came after the speech, but they doubted that the actions of some of the army's conscript members and lower-ranking officers who abandoned their posts actually drove the decision to depose Mubarak.

When the military realized the speech, in which Mubarak said he had passed some of his powers to Suleiman, had generated both anger in the streets and confusion among U.S. officials and others, the military felt it needed to clarify its role - and that could only happen if Mubarak stepped down.

"We saw some indication of soldiers taking off their uniforms but they may have been caught up in the jovial atmosphere. We don't know that they split," one of the officials said. "From our view, Mubarak's speech was unconvincing, and when the military leadership saw the speech not only didn't convince people but mobilized them, they said 'Game's up.'"

Quandt noted that the Egyptian military had to be aware that not only was its position in the hearts of Egyptians at risk, but also its status with the United States, which provides it with $1.3 billion in aid annually.

President Barack Obama's rebuke of Mubarak's remarks late Thursday night suggested that that aid could be in jeopardy.

"I think the military realizes they want to survive this and with a relationship with the United States," Quandt said.

Administration officials conceded they were uncertain Mubarak would resign until it happened. Like many Americans, they remained glued to television watching events unfold.

By the end of the day, officials admitted they had more questions than answers - not just what had taken place on Friday, but what was likely to happen in the days and weeks ahead when the Supreme Council must set up a transition process.

Both Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, talked to their counterparts after Mubarak's speech Thursday - the fifth conversation for each since the crisis began and the first since the weekend. But interviews with people briefed on those talks indicated nothing was said that provided insight into what was about to take place.

"It won't be clear for days where each side came out. This is going to take some time to unfold," said Joel Beinin, a professor of Middle East history at Stanford University. And going forward, "I don't think we have any way to know now what Egypt will look like next month," he said.


Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/02/11/2062753_p2/analysts-3-key-moments-likely.html#ixzz1DhyMa0ye
 

EnlightenedMonk

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Rage, I personally think the revolution in Egypt is possibly the worst thing that could have happened to those poor people...

Now that Mubarak's gone, there's essentially a power vacuum with the military holding fort for the moment and a shady group called the Muslim Brotherhood almost sure to come to power...

Now, I've heard some stuff about the Muslim Brotherhood that doesn't make me jump up with joy and confidence about a secure future for Egypt... I heard in the news channels that Hamas, Black September etc were all just basically offshoots of this organization.

And, during the beginning of the revolution, one Muslim Brotherhood guy was one of the panelists on NDTV and he was already talking about "Sharia Law" in the middle of the revolution and how they were not going to impose it once they came to power... A big charade I personally think

And, with Egypt in the loop a lot of things are at stake here because of the Suez Canal. We just cannot afford to let Egypt become another middle eastern failed state because the world's economy depends on the Suez Canal being open because of all the oil that goes through there...
 

Rage

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Rage, I personally think the revolution in Egypt is possibly the worst thing that could have happened to those poor people...

Now that Mubarak's gone, there's essentially a power vacuum with the military holding fort for the moment and a shady group called the Muslim Brotherhood almost sure to come to power...

Now, I've heard some stuff about the Muslim Brotherhood that doesn't make me jump up with joy and confidence about a secure future for Egypt... I heard in the news channels that Hamas, Black September etc were all just basically offshoots of this organization.

And, during the beginning of the revolution, one Muslim Brotherhood guy was one of the panelists on NDTV and he was already talking about "Sharia Law" in the middle of the revolution and how they were not going to impose it once they came to power... A big charade I personally think

And, with Egypt in the loop a lot of things are at stake here because of the Suez Canal. We just cannot afford to let Egypt become another middle eastern failed state because the world's economy depends on the Suez Canal being open because of all the oil that goes through there...
I agree with that. Essentially what the Egyptians needed was good governance: a change in the functioning of their regime, not the regime itself, an end to corruption, greater employment and an end to the autocratic despotism of Hosni Mubarak and his scallywags. They could've got all that with a little bit of unrest, and more, instead they got Hosni Mubarak vacating his seat and a central authority waiting to be taken over by the party that is most popular or endears themselves to the people the most.

The Muslim Brotherhood may talk a lot of promises now, but they will pursue an ideological agenda once <if> they come to power. That will mean deteriorating relations with neighbors, a climate of fear and uncertainty, less investment, capital flight, less job creation and the whole cycle of problems they sought to avoid in the first place. The one caveat to this, is if they <the Brotherhood> get usurped by a foreign power: probably Russia or China, which will keep them in check. Knowing the U.S.'s unparalleled presence in the region however, that will be a difficult task.

The Suez canal will be left untampered, I think. It is far too big of a bargaining chip with the West, for them to autocratically or dogmatically close it. They will probably seek concessions, and numerous instances of funding to keep it open. And the West will pay up.

It is however, one cause to which NATO would not be averse to going to war for. Keeping the Suez canal open? C'mon, now that's like gold!

What the West should immediately do, is to coalesce a party of Egyptian secularists and intellectuals under El Baradei. Use their influence in the media to give 'em maximum coverage. And organize an International peace keeping force, with Lebanese and other Arab troops, if needed.
 
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EnlightenedMonk

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I agree with that. Essentially what the Egyptians needed was good governance: a change in the functioning of their regime, not the regime itself, an end to corruption, greater employment and an end to the autocratic despotism of Hosni Mubarak and his scallywags. They could've got all that with a little bit of unrest, and more, instead they got Hosni Mubarak vacating his seat and a central authority waiting to be taken over by the party that is most popular or endears themselves to the people the most.

The Muslim Brotherhood may talk a lot of promises now, but they will pursue an ideological agenda once <if> they come to power. That will mean deteriorating relations with neighbors, a climate of fear and uncertainty, less investment, capital flight, less job creation and the whole cycle of problems they sought to avoid in the first place. The one caveat to this, is if they get usurped by a foreign power: probably Russia or China, which will keep them in check. Knowing the U.S.'s unparalleled presence in the region however, that will be a difficult task.

The Suez canal will be left untampered, I think. It is far too big of a bargaining chip with the West, for them to autocratically or dogmatically close it. They will probably seek concessions, and numerous instances of funding to keep it open. And the West will pay up.

It is however, one cause to which NATO would not be averse to going to war for. Keeping the Suez canal open? C'mon, now that's like gold!

What the West should immediately do, is to coalesce a party of secularists under El Baradei. Use their influence in the media to give 'em maximum coverage. And organize an International peace keeping force, with Lebanese and other Arab troops if need be.
A good way forward, but to be of any use it must also include the covert suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood people. They only sound like despots to me, but despots who have a lot of support on the ground. I dare say that the revolution was successful only because a lot of those Muslim Brotherhood people came out and were actively organizing the protests...
 

The Messiah

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I wonder how much money the puppet has stolen.

Some analysts estimate tens of millions of $$$.
 

ejazr

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If you go through some of the previous articles posted, you will see that on the ground Msulim Brotherhood did not start the protests, neither were they a major factor in the protests that followed. Other previous polls have shown that democarcy is the most favoured form of government by the majorirty of the people in Egypt. So the idea of MB taking over as a dictatorship, particularly with the military running the govt. at present is far fetched. But there is a possibility that MB might be a part of the government depending on how the electoral politics plays out.

And TV channels are not always a correct source of information. For example, Black September has nothing to do with MB. It was a compleately secular terrorist group formed in the aftermath of the death and explusions of thousands of Palestinians in Jordan in 1970. It consisted of both Chrisitan and Muslim Palestinian members and infact the operations of killing Israeli athelets in Munich were named after Christian villages "Ikrit" and "Biram", whose residents had been killed or expelled by the Israeli military Haganah in 1948.
Its other major operations included assasination of Jordan's PM and ambassador in London as well as an attack on the Saudi embassy in Sudan. All of whcih were done before the Munich assasinations.

HAMAS has only some ideological roots in common with MB but other than that they have no operational ties. The Egyptian MB has moderated its stance a lot over time. Just to add, it has no association with Iran either as they do not share the "Islamic revolution" goals of the Ayatollas there and a theocracy to rule Egypt. But what they would insist on is freedom to freely practice religion which believe it or not is not availble in Egypt. (or Tunisia and other secular dictatorships in the Arab world)

Here is B. Raman's article on MB with extracts that should put what Egyptian MB wants in perspective.
EGYPTIANS WANT RULE OF LAW IN AN ISLAMIC DEMOCRACY, NOT RULE BY CLERICS IN A THEOCRACY : MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
The following extracts from two statements issued by Dr.Mohamed Badie, Chairman of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (MB), on the protest demonstrations since January 25,2011 and from some commentaries on the developments carried by the web site of the MB give an indication of how it views the mass protests and what would be its role in a post-Hosni Mubarak era. The MB projects the mass uprising as a people's revolution and not an Islamic revolution. It describes the objective of the people's revolution as a rule of law in an Islamic democracy and not a rule by clerics in a theocracy. It seeks to assure the American people that they have nothing to fear from the success of the revolution. While expressing its readiness to participate in talks to bring about the end of the Mubarak regime, it says it has no desire for political power for itself. It does not want to contest in the elections for a new President. Nor is it interested in joining any interim political set-up. The only demand of a religious nature it makes is that the clerics should have a role in vetting all laws to be passed by the Parliament. It says that what Egypt needs is democracy moulded by historic and sacred values. It points out that the religious faith of the people always plays a role in popular movements even in the US and says one should not worry about any role of the religious faith of the people in the Egyptian revolution.

EXTRACTS

Mubarak should resign immediately if there is to be any constructive dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood. The state of emergency should be abolished and the Shura council and the parliament should be dissolved. They are both illegitimate institutions. The people no longer trust the regime or the ruling party and have had enough of hollow promises and lame speeches. Despite promises that there would be freedom of speech, thugs have taken to the streets attacking peaceful protestors and raiding press and media headquarters in an effort to intimidate the press to prevent coverage. The regime imposes only violence and does not understand the concept of mature and civilised dialogue. Its only solution to the people's uprising is violence. The MB welcomes dialogue with all political opposition. In fact all groups have agreed on uniting in a call for peaceful political reform that would serve the Egyptians as a whole. The current uprising is not an Islamic Revolution but an Egyptian People's revolution that included all Egyptians from all sects, religions and political trends. The MB does not seek power and has no intention of nominating any of its members for the presidency or for being part of any interim government.

------- From a statement issued on February 4,2011, by Dr.Mohamed Badie, Chairman of the MB.



2. The January 25 Day of Rage protests have instilled an incredible sense of pride among Egyptians as the world witnesses Egyptians rise from their apathy and fearlessly voice their dissent against a 30-year dictatorial regime. The turnout of over seven million people nationwide on Friday's Day of Departure will be recorded in history. People continued their call for their most basic rights of living in freedom and dignity, The people have the right to call for the ousting of Mubarak and his corrupt regime. The MB does not seek power and authority nor does it intend to field any of its members for presidency. It welcomes constructive and equal dialogue with all Egypt's political opposition and respects all sects, demanding that all be treated equally and that the people's will be unconditionally respected and their demands met. Since the group's establishment, the MB has worked to achieve comprehensive reform in all fields of political, economic and social development and seeks to restore the people's sovereignty and rights through peaceful strategies. Hence, it is on this note that the MB welcomes open dialogue on the condition that it is genuinely in the best interests of the country and is in accordance with the will of the masses. There should be an outlined agenda and it should be implemented. The people's and nation's interests must remain the first and foremost priority. The people are the legitimate decision-makers of their future.

--- Statement of the MB President after the massive demonstrations of February 4.



3.Western analysts and media outlets are deciding whether Egypt 's uprising is a secular demand for democracy, which they would support, or a religious revolution that they believe should be feared and stopped. However, the uprising is complex and if the US is to support the Egyptian people, as it promised, policymakers must first increase their understanding of Egyptian aspirations. The protests are fueled by the Egyptians' greater sense of self worth and it is based on the people's belief that they should no longer have to endure the daily humiliation of economic and political stagnation. The protesters come from a wide cross section of Egyptian society and they are all demanding justice, calling for Muslim-Christian solidarity. Religiosity is also playing a role in the development and continuance of the demonstrations, just as other uprisings throughout history. Egyptians say that moving toward greater democracy would help Muslims progress, and that attachment to spiritual and moral values would similarly lead to a brighter future. Surveys show that Egyptians prefer democracy over all other forms of government. They also say that religion plays a positive role in politics. The majority of Egyptians wants democracy and sees no contradiction between the change they seek and the timeless values to which they adhere. More than 90 percent of Egyptians say they would guarantee freedom of the press if it were up to them to write a constitution for a new country. Moreover, most Egyptians say they favor nothing more than an advisory role for religious leaders in the crafting of legislation. Egyptians choose democracy informed by sacred values, not theocracy with a democratic veneer. Similarly, from abolitionists to the civil rights movement, American leaders have been inspired by their faith as they pursue justice. Nowadays in the US, many of those who are calling for environmental preservation, an end to torture and eradicating global poverty, are faith leaders as they draw on their ethical traditions and beliefs for the common good. The US is a natural partner to the Egyptian people in their struggle to attain a brighter future because of America 's unique history and struggle for social justice. Surveys have revealed that the majority of Americans and Egyptians believe it is a benefit, not a threat, for Muslims and the West to interact. Although they seek the rule of law, most Egyptians do not support the rule of clerics. US policy makers should not make the mistake of alienating the Egyptian movement by failing to understand its complexities.

---From the MB web site

4.The MB does not and will not accept any efforts at intimidation against any Egyptians. The MB will continue to call for the constitutional rights of men, women, Muslims and Christians alike and for a civil state based on Islamic democracy which respects the freedom of the judiciary, the freedom of speech and the freedom of the media.
—From the MB's web site


5.A cable of 2007 from the US Embassy in Cairo to the State Department in Washington DC leaked by WikiLeaks said: The US could expect a difficult transition after Mubarak. "Whoever Egypt's next president is, he will inevitably be politically weaker than Mubarak. Among his first priorities will be to cement his position and build popular support. We can thus anticipate that the new President may sound an initial anti-American tone in his public rhetoric in an effort to prove his nationalist bona fides to the Egyptian street." The cable said that any new President will have to bolster his support by reconciling with the banned MB. This is true now that the Egyptians have demanded a say in the matter. The protest is not being fueled by anti-Americanism or radical Islamist sentiments; it's a protest driven by the economic and political needs of Egyptians. Protestors have only showed hostility toward the US because of its longtime support for a tyrannical regime.
Egypt's democracy movement doesn't see the MB as a radical party. "The Muslim Brotherhood has nothing to do with the Iranian movement, has nothing to do with extremism as we have seen it in Afghanistan and other places," El Baradei said over the weekend. He called the Brotherhood a conservative group that favors secular democracy and human rights and said that as an integral part of Egyptian society, it would have a place in any inclusive political process. Israel remains a living example of how a people live in fear when they take what is not theirs and it is looking on aghast as its most important friend in the region tumbles while the US does little to save him. Israel cannot count on Egypt's continued cooperation in imposing an economic siege on Gaza, aiming at unseating the territory's Hamas rulers.
The demonstrations show an Arab public looking to take charge of its own affairs, rather than have them determined by international power struggles. Even that, however, suggests turbulent times ahead for American Middle East policies that have little support on Egypt's streets.

----From the MB's Web site.

6.For the past ten days Egypt has experienced fear of autocracy, euphoria and fear of chaos. Starting off relatively small, the protests started with a few thousand people on January 25, then escalated to a thrilling climax on February 1, when millions of people assembled in Tahrir Square demanding the removal of Hosni Mubarak. After this the demonstrations deteriorated into violence as pro-Mubarak supporters attacked demonstrators. Despite the violent scenes during the week, the developments in Egypt are welcome. A nation that has been downtrodden for too long is now tasting freedom. The Arab world is buzzing with expectation, as ageing autocrats are suddenly looking shaky. The West is juggling stability and democracy and as they struggle to attain balance, the Arab pro-democratic movement appears disturbing. Fearing a vacuum due to a deterioration of Mubarak's regime, the West fears the Muslim Brothers, the anti-Western, anti-Israeli opposition. The US feels it must redouble its efforts to secure a prolonged managed transition by retaining Mubarak or getting someone else like him at the helm. Despite the fears of the US and Israel, the popular call for Mubarak to step down offers the Middle East the best chance for reform in decades. The West has been calling for democracy for years and if they fail to support Egyptians in their quest for democratic rule, the arguments of the US for democracy and human rights elsewhere in the world will fall on deaf ears. Egypt is also juggling; it is choosing between risk and stagnation. The Egyptian protests are not an 'Islamic' uprising, but a mass protest of Muslims against an unjust, autocratic regime. The only 'Islam' shown throughout the scenes of demonstrators was the peaceful behavior, prayer, determination and resolution of a nation. The result of these protests will certainly not be a perfectly formed democracy as it is likely that there will be disorder for some time. But on the plus side, Egypt, though poor, has a sophisticated elite, a well-educated middle class and a strong sense of national pride and these are indicators that Egyptians can pull order out of this chaos. Fear of the Muslim Brotherhood is grossly overdone as they are respected for their piety, discipline and resilience. The Brotherhood grows with history and is constantly evolving. The movement at the present time cannot be equated with its past. Calling for democracy, the voice of the people, free and fair elections, while not nominating any candidate, and having no desire for leadership or even a place in the interim government, the Brotherhood is the level-headed voice in Egypt. The past few weeks have proved that the Brotherhood is an integral part of Egyptian society and if democracy is to flourish in Egypt, the Brotherhood must be given a voice. The alternative to democracy is a dead end. Egypt under Mubarak has been becoming increasingly repressive, leaving 85m people to live under dictatorship, burdened by a corrupt and brutal police force, the suppression of the opposition, and the torture of political prisoners. This was sufficient fuse to light the uprising. Despite the obvious difficulties, even a disorderly democracy could eventually be a rich prize—and not just for Egyptians. If Egypt becomes democratic it could once again be a beacon to the region, answering the conundrum of how to incorporate Islam in Arab democracies. An Egyptian government that speaks for its people might contribute to a settlement with the Palestinians more than authoritarianism ever could. The US has lost much of its credibility in pursuing stability above democracy and it could turn this negative image around by making amends now. As America still has influence with Egypt's political, business and military elite, it could help speed the transition from autocracy through chaos to a new order and improve its standing in the region.

----From the MB's web site. (6-2-11)
 

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Not everyone was wrong on Egypt


Peter Feaver is right that many voices got things wrong on Egypt at multiple points over the last couple of weeks -- especially (now former) President Mubarak himself. But this doesn't mean that everyone has been wrong. As Jackson Diehl and others have pointed out, the bipartisan Working Group on Egypt has for the past year warned repeatedly, in public and in private, and with specific policy prescriptions, of the fragility of Mubarak's rule. Moreover the Working Group stressed the urgent need for the United States to wean ourselves from exclusive reliance on Mubarak and instead extend diplomatic and material support to democracy reformers in Egypt. As I have noted before, the White House should have seen this coming.

The United States has lost significant ground in Egypt over the past few weeks, by repeatedly failing to get out in front with a clear, united, and public message of support for democracy and against Mubarak's continued misrule. This amounts to a missed opportunity by President Obama to assure the Tahrir Square protestors of U.S. support, and of the entire administration to extend crucial economic and diplomatic support for Egyptian democracy activists over the last two years. As Jake Tapper and Glenn Kessler documented, the Obama Administration's record on this count is a failure, most crucially in its drastic budget cuts and abdication of the Bush administration's policy of providing support directly to democratic opposition groups.

In the midst of today's exuberance over Mubarak's departure, as the White House wrestled with what to say and do next, it should realize that just as important as specific statements and policies will be demonstrating to the people of Egypt, that the United States will partner with them in creating a better future for themselves. President Obama's eloquent statement today struck all the right notes, but he has offered the right words on behalf of democracy before -- it is the deeds that have been wanting.

Specifically, this means holding the Egyptian military accountable for ruling temporarily while staying committed to a specific timetable for nationwide elections, and offering full-fledged diplomatic and economic support for Egypt's beleaguered political parties in preparation for the elections. It will also mean renewed efforts on behalf of legal protections for civil liberties like freedom of speech and freedom of religion -- which also serve as institutional bulwarks against the undemocratic inclinations of the Muslim Brotherhood. A new poll by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy offers encouraging findings that only 15 percent of Egyptians approve of the Brotherhood, and only 12 percent want sharia law. Egyptian soil is fertile for the growth of democracy.

What might this mean in history? It is impossible to say. But as I note today over at ConservativeHomeUSA, Feb. 11 also marks the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which unleashed many of the maladies that afflict the Middle East today. It is a telling contrast between the two revolutions that Iran today arrested more opposition leaders and blocked media reporting on Egyptians dancing to their freedom in the streets. We can hope that Egypt's revolution will give a new meaning to Feb. 11. Yet hope is not a policy, as the saying goes, and so the administration should be working now to craft a bold policy that bolsters democracy in Egypt, and helps the Egyptian people turn Feb. 11 into a notable date on the calendar of liberty.
 

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The poll mentioned in the previous foreing policy article can be read fromthe WINEP website. WINEP is a thinktank on ME established by the AIPAC in 1985 and hence considered a pro-Israel policy body.

New Poll Reveals Egyptian Views on Protests
Beyond the headlines and YouTube videos of demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square, there are more than 80 million Egyptian citizens whose attitudes suddenly matter a great deal. Do they support or oppose the Muslim Brotherhood? Who would win a truly free Egyptian presidential election? Do Egyptians want to tear up their peace treaty with Israel, or to uphold it?

To answer these and other crucial questions, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy is pleased to release the first-ever reliable public opinion poll of Egyptians on these issues, taken by telephone in the midst of the current political upheaval. The results provide an eye-opening and unprecedented perspective on how the Egyptian public -- rather than the pundits and the politicians -- is reacting to these remarkable and historic events.

The poll was conducted by a professional, Egyptian-led field team supervised by Pechter Middle East Polls, a respected independent polling company based in Princeton, New Jersey. Dr. David Pollock, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former chief of Near East/South Asia research at the U.S. Information Agency and Department of State, directed the project.

The results of the poll are taken from nearly 350 interviews selected by random-digit dialing of both landline and cell phones in Cairo and Alexandria -- a sample large enough to be representative of the entire population of Egypt's two major metropolises -- with an approximately 6 percent margin of error. The interviews were conducted from Saturday, February 5 through Tuesday, February 8, 2011.

The following is Dr. Pollock's summary of the poll's key findings:

1. This is not an Islamic uprising. The Muslim Brotherhood is approved by just 15 percent of Egyptians -- and its leaders get barely 1 percent of the vote in a presidential straw poll. Asked to pick national priorities, only 12 percent of Egyptians choose sharia (Islamic law) over Egypt's regional leadership, democracy, or economic development. And, when asked to explain the uprising, the issues of economic conditions, corruption, and unemployment (around 30 percent each) far outpace the concern that "the regime is not Islamic enough" (only 7 percent).

2. Surprisingly, when asked two different ways about the peace treaty with Israel, more support it (37 percent) than oppose it (27 percent) -- although around a third say they "don't know" or refuse to answer this question. Only 18 percent of Egyptians approve either Hamas or Iran. And a mere 5 percent say the uprising occurred because their government is "too pro-Israel."

3. Even more surprisingly, opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei has very little popular support -- just 3 percent -- in a presidential straw vote. He is far outpaced by former foreign minister and current Arab League secretary-general Amr Mousa, who gets 25 percent. But President Mubarak and his new vice president, General Omar Suleiman, each garner 16-17 percent of support in this poll.

4. As for Egyptian views of America, a narrow plurality (36 percent vs. 27 percent) say Egypt should have good relations with the United States. And only a small minority (8 percent) say the current uprising is against a "too pro-American" regime. Nevertheless, half or more of the Egyptian public disapprove of how Washington has handled this crisis so far, saying that they do not trust the United States at all.
 

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Egypt: test of US policy of supporting dictators

By Amulya Ganguli, IANS,

The Egyptian crisis has exposed American hypocrisy more starkly than ever before. In a classical case of a confrontation between autocracy and freedom, which the upsurge in Egypt represents, the dithering of the land of the free and home of the brave on which side to support is yet another confirmation about how the US has always been equivocal about democracy outside its own shores.

It is supportive of the concept, but only if it was in consonance with its global policies. Otherwise, Washington had no compunctions about trashing it and even undermining it to install a despot, as in Iran in 1953 when the autocratic Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi replaced the democratically elected government of Mohammed Mossadegh in a coup which was suspected to have been engineered by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

In pursuing this cynical line, the Americans never had any dearth of excuses. Throughout the Cold War, it propped up totalitarian regimes wherever it could on the plea of countering Soviet communism. Although the US was aware that these dictatorships were the obverse side of the oppressive Communist regimes it was supposed to be fighting, American presidents like Franklin D. Roosevelt justified them by the celebrated explanation in favour of an America stooge: he may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch.

This succinct and, to be fair, candid elucidation of American double-speak was in reference to Nicaragua's Anastasio Somoza Garcia. But it applied virtually to all the tyrants who were in the US anti-Communist camp - the Pakistani military rulers Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan and Zia-ul Haq, Syngman Rhee of South Korea, Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, Saddam Hussein during his war against the Iran of the Ayatollahs, the Saudi Arabian potentates, the apartheid regime of South Africa, the tin pot dictators of North Africa, including Egypt, the Latin American despots, of whom Augusto Pinochet of Chile and the Duvaliers of Haiti, "Papa Doc" and "Baby Doc" were the most notorious.

But it isn't only the support for the authoritarian rulers which is noteworthy. What is even more significant is that the Americans did not confine themselves only to favouring them but at the same time castigated democracies such as India's as functioning anarchies, to quote John Kenneth Galbraith who was the US ambassador in New Delhi in the early 1960s.

The explanation for criticising Indian democracy while singing paeans of praise for Ayub Khan and Yahya Khan was American anger against India's pursuit of non-alignment to maintain equidistance from Washington and Moscow. This policy of Jawaharlal Nehru's was anathema to the US secretary of state John Foster Dulles because of his belief that "if you're not with us, you're against us" - a milder version of the "sons of bitches" theory.

Yet, America and the West (and also India) are now paying the price of this blinkered outlook because the transformation of Pakistan into the epicentre of Islamic terrorism can only be explained by the fact that the years of US-backed dictatorships there stifled the middle class and helped the mullahs to flourish.

George W. Bush was the first US president to note that there was not a single Indian Muslim in Al Qaeda because Indian democracy gave the minorities the hope and opportunity of faring well in the country's social, political, commercial, academic and entertainment fields and helped the Muslim middle class to grow.

It might have been expected that the Soviet Union's demise would persuade Washington to abandon its policy of mollycoddling tyrants. But the rise of Islamic fundamentalism gave the US yet another excuse for continuing to adhere to the old policy. What is more, it even assisted in the growth of this menacing medievalism by using it against the Soviets in Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden was America's ally during the anti-Soviet offensive.

Islamic bigotry also proved to be a useful tool in the hands of the autocrats, who could afford to ignore the half-hearted American appeals in favour of democracy by presenting the "after me, the deluge" theory. By arguing that only they are the bulwark against the takeover of their countries by the mullahs, the tyrants ensured that their thrones would not be disturbed.

However, the Egyptian successful uprising against Mubarak's three-dccade hard-fisted rule has disproved this self-serving assumption to America's discomfiture. For once, it is as pure an expression of popular discontent against decades of oppression as can be expected, with the middle class playing a seminal role.

The Islamic fundamentalists have no part in it and must have been bewildered by an upsurge, which, if it succeeds in introducing genuine democracy, may ring the death knell for them by marginalising the clerics.

It is clear that the Egyptian revolution deserves the wholehearted support of all genuine democracies. But if America continues to vacillate, it is because it prefers to deal with those who kowtow to them rather than those who have their own views, as democrats usually do.

Evidence of this attitude was available during the Iraq war when France earned Washington's displeasure for its contrary stance. Even more telling was the US deputy defence secretary Paul Wolfowitz's dissatisfaction with the Turkish army for not negating the Turkish parliament's opposition to allowing American troops to enter Iraq from Turkey.

The ouster of an American-backed dictator in Egypt will be the moment of truth for the US and the world, for it will show whether Barack Obama meant what he said in Cairo in 2009 about "a new beginning".

(12.02.2011-Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be reached at [email protected])
 

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New America Foundation discussing events in Egypt, democracy in the Arab world and MB and its influence

 
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News Alert: US seeks India role in Egypt elections

Chidanand Rajghatta Feb 14, 2011, 01.50am IST


WASHINGTON D.C.: A possible Indian role in any upcoming elections in Egypt given New Delhi's expertise with ballots was the unexpected subject of conversation over the weekend between external affairs minister SM Krishna and US secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

In a phone call initiated by Krishna, mainly to raise the Tri-Valley students issue, Hillary Clinton first mentioned the Egypt developments, noting that Washington and New Delhi were almost consonant in their approach of wanting a peaceful transition. She then wondered if India could be associated with helping the Egyptian electoral process given its experience and expertise in conducting elections, according to sources.

Krishna told the secretary that India would be ready and willing depending on the approach Egypt and other friendly countries made on this matter over the next few weeks. New Delhi has a long association with Cairo and is generally looked at favorable in Egypt.

The two also discussed Clinton's upcoming visit to India in April for the strategic dialogue, aimed at strengthening and taking forward US-India ties that appear ever more aligned. The one wrinkle in the engagement appears to be the possible absence of defense minister AK Antony from the Indian line-up of engaging ministers because of his pre-occupation with elections in Kerala.

Washington is keen to deploy defense secretary Robert Gates for the ministerial-level dialogue given the US emphasis on strengthening defense ties and concluding military sales, but Antony, who was a no-show during the first strategic dialogue in Washington last year, will be absent this time too, much to US dismay.

Officials said Krishna also "strongly" raised the Tri-Valley students issue with Clinton, asking that they be given time to shift to some other university instead of being given deadlines and deported. They had come to the US on valid visas and authorities should look at it from a humanitarian viewpoint and make adjustments so that they did not lose an academic year, he requested. Clinton promised to look into the matter.

The Indian ambassador to US Meera Shankar is expected to meet Clinton next week to brief her on what has become an emotive issue in India, and foreign secretary Nirupama Rao is also expected to explain the matter when she calls on the secretary in Washington this week.

Krishna took up the Tri-Valley students issue after a group of students, accompanied by relatives, called on him on Saturday to explain their predicament. While the minister heard them sympathetically, officials said they also recognized that some of the students had come to the US with the explicit purpose of working and immigrating, rather than academic pursuit. Even if US authorities offered them the option of transferring to other universities, many of them were not inclined or in a position to take up the offer, since academic pursuit was not a priority for them in the first place.

During the meetings, students requested not to be photographed for fear of attracting the attention of US authorities.

Some 1500 Indian students, mostly from Andhra Pradesh, who entered the US legally on valid visas, stand accused of misusing the provisions of student visas by knowingly enrolling in a sham university because it offered to circumvent rule and provide them employment opportunities.


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...le-in-Egypt-elections/articleshow/7490741.cms
 

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Hosni Mubarak in coma: Reports

Hosni Mubarak in coma: Reports


Deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak is seriously ill and has slipped into coma, according to Al Arabiya television.
The channel reported that the sudden resignation of Mubarak was triggered by his failing health. He reportedly fainted twice during his last TV address to Egyptians.
The Egyptian envoy to US has reportedly confirmed Mubarak's ill-health.
The former president is reportedly being treated at Sharm el-Shaikh, where he had retreated after giving up power on February 11.
 

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And free flows the Nile -AlJazeera
India's former foreign minister hopes military rule in Egypt will only be a temporary measure.

For 18 days, during the ebb and flow of protest, it did not seem possible that the end of the Egyptian Revolution would come so suddenly, in a terse announcement that lasted no more than a half-minute: "President Hosni Mubarak has relinquished office..." With that, amidst roars of victory, an era was ended, reaffirming the old saying that "the graveyards of the world are full of those who considered themselves indispensable to their nations".

In the days and weeks ahead, there could arise occasions when the news from Cairo is not uplifting, but let us never forget that Egypt has taken a giant step, which in reality is a giant step for all Arabs. After all, Egypt is the heart, brain, and nerve center of the Arab world. True, it once spawned the radical Muslim Brotherhood, but it also gave birth to Islamic socialism and anti-colonialism, Arab unity, and now a democratic affirmation of the people's will. Pernicious talk that Arabs do not want democracy has been exposed as the big lie it is.

Egypt, in the great Bengali poet Rabindranath Tagore's memorable words, is the land "where the head is (now) held high and the mind is (now) without fear"¦" The consequences will be vast. Ancient Arab lands are bestirred. Decades-old, apparently immovable autocracies are finding their hold on power unhinged; change is invading their static environs. Yesterday's treaties, particularly those with the United States and Israel, will no longer inspire the same type of confidence they have long had as instruments of state policy.

Memory of these 18 days is so crowded that it is difficult to separate one event from another, one phase from the next: the dramatic, the moving, the bizarre, and the unreal from the bathetic. But the thread that united all, the theme that remained unerringly constant, was the yearning for "change" – immediate, real, and tangible, not a promise or a tantalising, unreachable mirage.

Will this yearning travel beyond the Nile, as it did from Tunis to Cairo? This question haunts other Arab portals of power. And not just Arab; globally, foreign policies are being hurriedly – and somewhat confusedly – revised and rewritten. This is why US policy oscillated so disconcertingly from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's "Do not rush the pace or else the pro-democracy movement could well be hijacked" to President Barack Obama's emphatic call for "change now."

Of course, a grave question arises about the now-ruling Supreme Council of the Military High Command in Egypt: How can the enforcers of the status quo become the agents of change? But, then, military rule is only a temporary measure, or so we reason.

The great Tunisian poet Abul-Qasim Al Shabi has captured poignantly the spirit of Egypt's saga: "If one day the people want life, then fate will arise"¦night fade away, chains broken"¦" That, in essence, is what the young in Egypt have done. Their idiom is current; their instruments of change are today's electronic media. They – and we – are very far from the world that Mubarak, or the great Gamal Abdel Nasser, knew and understood.

The Egyptian revolution now faces the exacting task that confronts all successful revolutions: how to define the future. Like the Ottoman Empire's fragmentation in 1922 or Nasser's overthrow of King Farouk's regime in 1952, the current transformation, too, must be shaped. And how that future is shaped will determine whether or not Mubarak's end marks the beginning of political transformation throughout the Middle East.

That is the possibility that is shaking governments from Washington to Beijing. It is not just the reliability of the Suez Canal and oil exports that are now in doubt; decades of fixed strategic certainties must now be reexamined.

Consider Israel, which has watched the events in Cairo with a degree of worry unfelt since January 1979, when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini unseated the Shah of Iran. That strategic nightmare cost Israel and the US their closest ally in the region, one that was soon transformed into an implacable enemy.

Israel's two most recent wars – against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006, and against Hamas in Gaza in 2009 – were fought against groups sponsored, supplied, and trained by Iran. Clearly, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will also now lie unattended as Israel concentrates on developments in Egypt. Above all, Israel must wonder if the peace treaty with Egypt will hold, and, if not, how to carry out the massive restructuring of its defense posture that will be required.

But it is not only the fate of Israel that has now shocked US policy, in particular, to its core. Egypt, after all, has been the cornerstone of America's balancing act in the Middle East – and the Islamic world – for three decades. The Egypt-Israel peace treaty has kept Egypt comfortably neutralized, freeing the US to commit its strategic resources elsewhere. In turn, Egypt, propped up by massive US aid, has secured the region from a larger conflagration, even though the Israel-Palestine conflict has continued to smolder.

Herein lies the core of the dilemma for the US: it wants Egypt's basic state apparatus to survive, so that the levers of power do not fall into the wrong hands. This requires the US to be seen as siding with the public's demand for change, yet to avoid being identified with political immobility.

There is reason to feel reassured by Obama's reactions. He termed Mubarak's departure a display of "the power of human dignity," adding that "the people of Egypt have spoken, their voices have been heard, and Egypt will never be the same."

But nothing that Obama, or anyone else, says can answer the question now occupying the attention of senior US officials: Will the coming of popular sovereignty to Egypt inevitably lead to anti-Americanism?

Jaswant Singh, a former Indian finance minister, foreign minister, and defense minister, is the author of Jinnah: India – Partition – Independence.
 

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Women Seek to Maintain a Role in Rebuilding Egypt



CAIRO — When the prime minister of Egypt stepped down on Thursday, Shereen Diaa, 32, was cooking lunch for her two young sons in a suburb on Cairo's outskirts. A veiled woman who molds her life around her children, Ms. Diaa had promised herself she would stop attending political protests and focus on her boys, ages 6 and 8. But when she saw on Facebook that the new prime minister himself would address the protesters the next day, in an unprecedented act, she could not resist.

"I will leave you only two hours," she said she told the children, dropping them off with her mother and then heading downtown to Tahrir Square.

In the raucous crowd, she stepped on a water jug to catch a glimpse of the prime minister, Essam Sharaf, who had stood with the demonstrators before Hosni Mubarak was ousted as president. "I see him! I am really happy!" she exclaimed, beaming, one voice among thousands. "Raise your head high, you are Egyptian!" they chanted.

Egypt's popular revolution was the work of men and women, bringing together housewives and fruit sellers, businesswomen and students. At its height, roughly one quarter of the million protesters who poured into the square each day were women. Veiled and unveiled women shouted, fought and slept in the streets alongside men, upending traditional expectations of their behavior.

The challenge now, activists here say, is to make sure that women maintain their involvement as the nation lurches forward, so that their contribution to the revolution is not forgotten.

"Things have not changed, they are changing," said Mozn Hassan, 32, the executive director of the organization Nazra for Feminist Studies. She barely returned home during the 18 days it took to topple Mr. Mubarak, but that is not enough, she said. "Revolution is not about 18 days in Tahrir Square and then turning it into a carnival and loving the army," she said. "We have simply won the first phase."

It is an indication of the place of women here that Ms. Hassan was referring to the need for political gains and true equality, rather than some more basic rights denied to women in parts of the Arab world. Even as this country has become more devout, experts say roughly 25 percent of Egyptian women work outside their homes. And they are allowed to mix more freely in public with men than in some other Arab countries.

But a recent report by the World Economic Forum ranked Egypt 125th out of 134 countries when judging the equality between men and women, in good part because so many women do not work, 42 percent of women cannot read or write and almost no women are political leaders. (In 2010, only 8 of the 454 seats in Parliament were held by women.)

Genital cutting of women is still widely practiced in Egypt, especially in rural areas. Women here also suffer a level of sexual harassment that would not be tolerated in many countries. They are often verbally harassed on the street in Cairo and sometimes groped in crowded spaces whether they are veiled or not, leading many wealthier women to simply abandon walking downtown.

Egypt is a step ahead of other popular uprisings in the region, which have had similar bursts of female participation, accompanied by a recognition from men that their support is vital. In Bahrain, hundreds of women wrapped in traditional black tunics stood up to the authorities in the demonstrations against the government, but in a nod to their conservative culture, they slept and prayed outside during protests in a roped-off women's section. In Yemen, only in the past few days have significant numbers of women started to protest in Sana, the capital, but their numbers were dwarfed by the crowds of men.

Ms. Diaa, whose husband works for a multinational corporation, said the role of housewives in Egypt's revolution has been critical because they often have more time to protest than their husbands. The importance of wives has long been clear to the Muslim Brotherhood; women are active in the charitable groups that form the organization's backbone.

"We feel this is our country now," said Abrar Mousad, 15, a Brotherhood supporter who stood in the square with her mother, aunt and cousin. They had come from the northern city of Tanta to take part. "Everything has changed. I can say what I think and what I need without any fear from anyone."

That assessment may be overly optimistic; feminists acknowledge that the battle for equality will not be easy. Still, women here are energized, and say perhaps the greatest change so far has been internal. They came to be convinced that the traffic-choked streets of downtown Cairo, long a male-dominated space, could be equally theirs despite years of rampant sexual harassment.

A study in 2008 by the Egyptian Center for Women's Rights found that a vast majority of the women surveyed had been harassed. And the harassers, who are often members of the state security forces, are almost never punished, said Nehad Abu El Komsan, the director of the organization.

Ms. Komsan placed blame for the problem on the lack of laws protecting women against sexual violence, women's fear of reporting trouble, and a powerful undercurrent of oppression and frustration in Egyptian society, particularly among the millions of poor, uneducated and unemployed young men. But during the revolution, women faced snipers and tear gas on those same streets, and they interacted with men they had been told to avoid.

"The same men they were afraid to talk to in the streets were saying, 'Bravo, the girls' revolution,' " Ms. Hassan said.

It did not take long, however, before the sense of unity that had grown in Tahrir Square was interrupted. On Feb. 11, just as Mr. Mubarak fell, the crowd suddenly swelled, crushing people against one another.

It was shortly afterward that Lara Logan, a CBS News reporter, was sexually assaulted; the details of the attack remain unclear. Several Egyptian women also reported being groped and harassed.

Ms. Komsan and other women said they believed that the violence, which had been absent during the revolution itself, was the work of outsiders or young men who treated the night as they would a victorious soccer match, which are notorious for harassment.

But it was still a reminder of how far Egypt has to go to address one of its most disturbing social problems.

"I was so disappointed," said Yasmeen Mekawy, 25, an Egyptian-American who had been surprised that she faced no harassment during the revolution, but who was grabbed from behind the Friday after Mr. Mubarak was driven from power.

There have been disappointments outside the square, too. The committee of eight legal experts appointed by the military authorities to revise the Constitution did not include a single woman or, according to Amal abd al-Hadi, a longtime feminist here, anyone with a gender-sensitive perspective.

As a result, one proposed revision states that the Egyptian president may not be married to a "non-Egyptian woman" — seemingly ruling out the possibility of a woman as president.

A coalition of 63 women's groups started a petition to include a female lawyer on the committee, arguing that women "have the right to participate in building the new Egyptian state." Ms. Hadi noted that in past Egyptian revolutions, in 1919 and 1952, women's contributions had been met with similar setbacks. One of the feminists' worst fears is that expected revisions in the country's laws will erode the rights they do have, especially if conservative Islamic forces play a greater role in government.

But many women also note progress. On Friday, some of the many young women in Tahrir Square wore unofficial police headbands and held up signs reminding men to respect women. Outside the square, the deep suspicion that had separated secular feminists from Islamic feminists, who believe Islam should be the paradigm for women's rights, is being bridged, said Fatma Eman, 28, an Islamic feminist who is a co-founder of Nazra.

"After the revolution, I was welcomed in a very decent way," she said. "They needed something to prove that we were allies."

A coalition including Nawal el-Saadawi, a leading feminist, is planning a million women's march for Tuesday, with no set agenda other than to promote democracy. Ms. Diaa said that she planned to stay home now to give the new prime minister a chance to work and to help her children. But she said she would return to the streets if Mr. Sharaf did not quickly make democratic changes.

"I don't see a difference between men and women," she said, talking about her many days of protesting. "The only difference is that men are more able to take the sticks of the thugs. But that doesn't mean we don't have a voice. I believe that I have a voice, so I can't stay at home. I have a responsibility. I can be one of a million."
 

youngindian

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Gandhi an inspiration to Egyptian revolution, says ElBaradei

Egyptian presidential candidate Mohamed ElBaradei on Friday said that Mahatma Gandhi's civil disobedience movement helped him plan Egypt's political transformation.

"I told protesters about Gandhi and the way he took on the British colonial rulers. Gandhi's non-violent struggle helped us in our journey to freedom," ElBaradei said in his address on 'The New Middle-East: Challenges and Opportunities' at the 10th India Today Conclave in Delhi.

"We need a parliament and president as soon as possible. We are holding workshops across Egypt to raise awareness among citizens that constitutional amendments are not enough," he said.

The Nobel laureate, who in January joined the popular movement that eventually unseated longtime president Hosni Mubarak, has already called on all Egyptians to reject the proposed constitutional amendments that will be put to a nationwide referendum on March 19.

"The first outcome of a 'Yes' vote on the amended constitution would be to provide a parliament not representative of the people, composed mainly of members of the National Democratic Party and benefiting businessmen. This will take us backwards to a great extent," ElBaradei said.

ElBaradei said the period during which a new constitution is drafted will provide an opportunity to form new parties composed of youth from the revolution so that the next parliament is balanced. "It will give the president limited authorities," he said.

Egyptians vote on March 19 in a referendum on constitutional changes designed to allow free and fair elections but have splintered the reform movement that toppled Mubarak. The vote has divided Egypt.

There are some who seek deeper constitutional changes while there are others arguing that amendments will suffice for now. A high turnout is expected.

The military council to which Mubarak handed power on February 11 is hoping the amendments will pass so it can move along the path it has set towards parliamentary and presidential elections that will allow it to cede power to an elected government.

"This will be a watershed vote," said ElBaradei. "People's appetite for elections is high and there is change in the air."

The military council tasked a judicial committee with drafting the amendments, which include a two-term limit on the presidency, restricting to eight years the time a leader can serve in the office Mubarak held for 30 years.

On Mubarak, now reportedly with his family in the port town of Sharm-al-Shaikh, ElBaradei said: "I think it would be best if he left the country."

In response to a question on the situation in neighbouring Libya, where forces loyal to Colonel Gadaffi are in a bloody battle against pro-democracy protestors, ElBaradei expressed frustration at the structure of the international security system.

"I think the Security Council should authorise international military intervention in Libya to protect the civilian population," he said.

Referring to Japan's nuclear crisis, ElBaradei, who was chief of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency for three terms until 2009, urged a complete peer review of all reactors, civilian and military. Reactors for military use are, at the moment, outside the purview of peer review.

He said that while the Japan crisis was a wake-up call, emerging economies like India and China cannot afford to rule out nuclear energy as a source of power. "Without energy, there is no development and fossil fuels incur a cost in terms of greenhouse gas emissions," said ElBaradei.

In response to a question on the Indo-US nuclear deal, ElBaradei said that he fully supported the deal, which gave India a level playing field with China and access to technology for civil nuclear projects.


http://www.indiatoday.intoday.in/si...ebuilding-egypt-will-need-time-elbaradei.html
 
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