Economics: Why are mainstream views different from reality?

pmaitra

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Re: We're for 'socialist-type' economic policy, says Prashant Bhushan

I usually do not get upset during discussions but I definitely do not appreciate mixing beliefs and conclusions.
Neither do I appreciate mixing beliefs and conclusions, nor do I understand why the obvious (e.g. 2+2=4) should be taken as a belief, and a 'study' conducted before concluding that 2+2=4.

Obfuscation and inundating with lots of irrelevant points is an old trick in winning an argument - but it rarely works with me.

N.B.: We are on the same page, that we agree beliefs and conclusions should not be mixed, and that is why I would really appreciate if one were to hold the statement, "banks practise usury," as a conclusion, and not a belief.
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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Re: We're for 'socialist-type' economic policy, says Prashant Bhushan

So how can we have a network good that is easy enough that it doesn't stifle the credit structure below its healthy potential, yet hard enough that it doesn't grow into an unhealthy monstrosity capable of bringing the whole thing down? This is exactly what the future financial system will do. It opens a free-flowing two-way trading valve between money and physical gold. And the flow through this open valve between the pyramids becomes the public indicium of the health of the upper credit system. Without such a valve, you either have strangling constraint or no indicia (indicator) of unhealthy growth.

Without such a pairing as fiat + unconstrained price of physical gold at the center of the hourglass, you will lurch back and forth between depressions and hyperinflations, century after century, with a few really nasty episodes like the French Revolution thrown in. Imagine coming up with this Thought out of thin air. Luckily we had the Gold Trail to lead us here. But this is how a grand induction works. Musta been quite the Aha moment for those guys when they finally worked it out!
I think this was a very nice and balanced article. I agree with most of it except the part highlighted above. There are many other factors giving rise to the business cycles and monetary flexibility can help control some volatility.
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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Re: We're for 'socialist-type' economic policy, says Prashant Bhushan

Neither do I appreciate mixing beliefs and conclusions, nor do I understand why the obvious (e.g. 2+2=4) should be taken as a belief, and a 'study' conducted before concluding that 2+2=4.

Obfuscation and inundating with lots of irrelevant points is an old trick in winning an argument - but it rarely works with me.

N.B.: We are on the same page, that we agree beliefs and conclusions should not be mixed, and that is why I would really appreciate if one were to hold the statement, "banks practise usury," as a conclusion, and not a belief.
But sometimes beliefs help you arrive at definition and thereafter the conclusion. The last discussion was a perfect example.

Another trick to win the argument is repeat the information and common knowledge to overload the processing of details by your opposition- but it rarely works with me.

On a side note, those who have studied linear algebra or topology, would not take 2+2=4 as obvious!!
 

pmaitra

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Re: We're for 'socialist-type' economic policy, says Prashant Bhushan

But sometimes beliefs help you arrive at definition and thereafter the conclusion. The last discussion was a perfect example.

Another trick to win the argument is repeat the information and common knowledge to overload the processing of details by your opposition- but it rarely works with me.

On a side note, those who have studied linear algebra or topology, would not take 2+2=4 as obvious!!
Sometimes it becomes imperative to be helpful and answer questions. So when there is overloading of questions, such as whether banks practise usury, there will be overloading of answers, explaining the same thing.

Put it this way - the more attempts there are to divert the point of discussion, there will be an equal amount of attempts to bring the discussion back on track.

I will ignore the side note, because that was just an example, but I appreciate you giving credence to linear algebra; it is more credible than economic theories.
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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Re: We're for 'socialist-type' economic policy, says Prashant Bhushan

Sometimes it becomes imperative to be helpful and answer questions. So when there is overloading of questions, such as whether banks practise usury, there will be overloading of answers, explaining the same thing.

Put it this way - the more attempts there are to divert the point of discussion, there will be an equal amount of attempts to bring the discussion back on track.

I will ignore the side note, because that was just an example, but I appreciate you giving credence to linear algebra; it is more credible than economic theories.
To add to the above-- it is equally important to look at macro problems in totality rather than choose to just put forward your beliefs as conclusions, such as, banks force govt. to do QE.

I think this is the my last post on the posting behavior. And since we almost know the conclusions of the last discussion, so I would stop here. Also given that your side of the arguments followed from the beliefs, which I proved and you acknowledged, I do not think there is use of any further debate on the other questions you left unanswered.
 

pmaitra

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Re: We're for 'socialist-type' economic policy, says Prashant Bhushan

To add to the above-- it is equally important to look at macro problems in totality rather than choose to just put forward your beliefs as conclusions, such as, banks force govt. to do QE.

I think this is the my last post on the posting behavior. And since we almost know the conclusions of the last discussion, so I would stop here. Also given that your side of the arguments followed from the beliefs, which I proved and you acknowledged, I do not think there is use of any further debate on the other questions you left unanswered.
Regarding QE, you said you'd rather wait before jumping to conclusions. I think that is a very valid comment, and i give you full credit for that.
 

pmaitra

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  • Perform Quantitative Easing.
  • Darn it. That didn't solve the problem.
  • Well, the obvious solution is, more Quantitative Easing, ain't it"½


Ben Bernanke has warned that running over this 'fiscal cliff' would lead the economy into a new recession Photo: AP

Federal Reserve begins to addresses exit strategy as it ties low interest rates to unemployment level
The Federal Reserve has signalled it will consider raising interest rates when the US unemployment rate falls below 6.5pc, as the central bank tries to offer further clarity on when the era of cheap money will end.


Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...low-interest-rates-to-unemployment-level.html
 

panduranghari

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Ben Bernanke has warned that running over this 'fiscal cliff' would lead the economy into a new recession Photo: AP








Please give this some serious thought:

1. The U.S. exorbitant privilege peaked in 2005 (before the financial crisis) and is now on the decline, meaning it is no longer supported abroad.
2. The U.S. government (with the obvious assistance of the Fed) is now in defensive mode, defending that inflow of free stuff with the printing press.
3. The U.S. federal government budget deficit (DC's "needs" minus its normal revenue) **eclipses** the trade deficit by more than a 2 to 1 margin.

So what could possibly go wrong? The recession has already contracted the U.S. economy, all except the part that resides in Washington, DC. And just to maintain its own status quo (when has it ever been happy doing only that?) US federal government needs to insure our national business of exporting empty containers at its present level.

What could go wrong? Prices! If the price of an apple doubles, what do you think happens to the price of a full container? Those of you who think we are due for some more price deflation in the stuff that the USG needs to maintain its status quo should really have your heads examined. Even Obama is winding up to pitch the whole ball of twine at the problem. He just delegated his executive power to print until the cows come home to each of his department heads.

Executive Order -- National Defense Resources Preparedness | The White House

Sec. 301. Loan Guarantees. (a) To reduce current or projected shortfalls of resources, critical technology items, or materials essential for the national defense, the head of each agency engaged in procurement for the national defense, as defined in section 801(h) of this order, is authorized pursuant to section 301 of the Act, 50 U.S.C. App. 2091, to guarantee loans by private institutions.

(b) Each guaranteeing agency is designated and authorized to: (1) act as fiscal agent in the making of its own guarantee contracts and in otherwise carrying out the purposes of section 301 of the Act; and (2) contract with any Federal Reserve Bank to assist the agency in serving as fiscal agent.

(c) Terms and conditions of guarantees under this authority shall be determined in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The guaranteeing agency is authorized, following such consultation, to prescribe: (1) either specifically or by maximum limits or otherwise, rates of interest, guarantee and commitment fees, and other charges which may be made in connection with such guarantee contracts; and (2) regulations governing the forms and procedures (which shall be uniform to the extent practicable) to be utilized in connection therewith.

Sec. 302. Loans. To reduce current or projected shortfalls of resources, critical technology items, or materials essential for the national defense, the head of each agency engaged in procurement for the national defense is delegated the authority of the President under section 302 of the Act, 50 U.S.C. App. 2092, to make loans thereunder. Terms and conditions of loans under this authority shall be determined in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury and the Director of OMB.
 
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pmaitra

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Shamelessly plagiarized from another forum that I cannot provide a link to. Just know that these two quotes are not my original content:

Guide To Economics I
Cheer up everybody and read on to discover the true meaning of "E-cow-nomics"

Socialism: You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbour.

Communism: You have 2 cows. The state takes both and gives you some milk.

Fascism: You have 2 cows. The state takes both and sells you some milk.

Nazism: You have 2 cows. The state takes both and shoots you.

Bureaucratism: You have 2 cows. The state takes both, shoots one, milks the other and then throws the milk away.

Traditional Capitalism: You have 2 cows. You sell one, buy a bull, your herd multiplies and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

Royal Bank of Scotland (Adventure) Capitalism: You have 2 cows. You sell 3 of them to your publicly listed company using letters of credit from your brother in law at the bank. He then executes a debt equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all 4 cows back with a tax exemption for 5 cows. The milk rights of the 6 cows are transfered by intermediary to a Cayman Island company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all 7 cows back to your listed company. The annual report says the company owns 8 cows with an option for one more.You sell one cow to buy a new President of the USA, leaving you with 9 cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

Surrealism: You have 2 giraffes. The state requires you to take harmonica lessons.

An American Corporation: You have 2 cows. You sell one and force the other to produce the milk of 4 cows. Later you hire a consultant to analyse why the cow has dropped dead.

A Greek Corporation: You have 2 cows. You borrow billions of euros to build barns, milking sheds, hay stores, feed sheds, dairies, cold stores, abbatoir, cheese unit and packing sheds. You still only have 2 cows.

A French Corporation: You have 2 cows. You go on strike, organize a riot and block the roads and ports; because you want 3 cows.

A Japanese Corporation: You have 2 cows. You redesign them so they are one tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce 20 times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon called Cowkimono and market it world wide.

An Italian Corporation: You have 2 cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A Swiss Corporation: You have 5,000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A Chinese Corporation: You have 2 cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim to have full employment and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

An Indian Corporation: You have 2 cows. You worship them.

A British Corporation: You have 2 cows. Both are mad.

An Iraqi Corporation: Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the **** out of you and invade your country.You still have no cows, but at least you are now a democracy.

An Australian Corporation: You have 2 cows. Business seems pretty good, you decide to close the office and go for a few beers.

A New Zealand Corporation: You have 2 cows. The one on the left looks very attractive...
Guide To Economics II
ONE OF LIFE'S MOST DIFFICULT LESSONS. Taught in a tough environment.


Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing. The fifth would pay $1. The sixth would pay $3. The seventh would pay $7. The eighth would pay $12. The ninth would pay $18. The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. 'Since you are all such good customers, he said, 'I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. What happens to the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?' They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).

The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).

The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).

The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).

The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).

The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

'I only got a dollar out of the $20,'declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,' but he got $10!'

'Yeah, that's right,' exclaimed the fifth man. 'I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!'

'That's true!!' shouted the seventh man. 'Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!'

'Wait a minute,' yelled the first four men in unison. 'We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!'

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important.

They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.


For those who understand, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.
 

pmaitra

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Re: German President to begin 5-day India visit on Feb 4

OT: I read or heard long time back that, ABV cleared all loans during his rule and India was giving loans to other countries, is this news true?
OT, but valuable discussion.

Let's not rely on hearsay. Here is what I got:



India's external debt, from 1998 to 2004.

Tool link: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/external-debt
 

pmaitra

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They can't raid your house looking for gold, can they? And that only happens in neo-facist states like the US. If not gold, you can also invest in silver, platinum, diamonds, precious stones etc.
I think a small amount of gold can be legally owned. I am not sure about the details, but the Constitutionality of this move is controversial.
 

Known_Unknown

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I think a small amount of gold can be legally owned. I am not sure about the details, but the Constitutionality of this move is controversial.
I think the bottomline is to hold as many *real* assets as possible. Better to have a fully paid off house and gold bars/coins in a safe at home....your savings account should have no more than a few hundred dollars. Good plan. Almost foolproof-what happens when burglars hear about all the gold in your house? Moving it to a bank safe is no solution at all as the whole point is to save it from the grubby paws of the government.
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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fallenwarrior

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Re: German President to begin 5-day India visit on Feb 4

OT, but valuable discussion.

Let's not rely on hearsay. Here is what I got:



India's external debt, from 1998 to 2004.

Tool link: India External Debt | Actual Value | Historical Data | Forecast


Still this graph--from 1998 to 2014--looks something like the exponential curve---is this really the way our foreign debt increased--with a economist at helm?
I am not well versed in economics ----can anyone tell me what are the effects of rise in foreign debt?

India External Debt | Actual Value | Historical Data | Forecast
 

pmaitra

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I agreed till the half of the video. The guy simply does not know the idea of economic growth.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/21/b...er-us-growth-at-4-1-rate-in-new-estimate.html

If you end the video by predicting doom without any time horizon, then in the long run you are bound to prove yourself true!!
I read the article. It is unclear what it is based on, but I guess it is non-nominal or nominal GDP.

This is interesting:


Full article: U.S. Federal Government Revenue (Current & Inflation Adjusted) » truthful politics
 

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