Economics: Why are mainstream views different from reality?

panduranghari

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Scared of bad debt!!
Yes scared of debt going sour. They are the lenders.

Good that we agree here when I explained the statistics and the double counting.


People are talking about austerity even in Greece and that is a political decision. No time in history did we have a currency completely backed by gold. It always has had fiduciary money on the side. The above system you are advocating is as susceptible to socialism as any other system.
Who says I am suggesting a currency backed by gold? I have to be very clear here - there will never ever ever ever be a gold standard ever.

What do we need for a gold standard? A lot of gold and to raise its price high enough to be acceptable. Look what USA did with it? Initially 1 oz of fine gold = 20 USD. Then 35USD = 1 oz. then it got out of control when USA went off the gold standard on 15 August 1971.

Remember what Charles De Gaulle said about USA's gold standard - exorbitant privilege.

"Exorbitant privilege" refers to the benefit the United States had in the US Dollar being the international reserve currency: the US would not face a balance of payments crisis, because it purchased imports in its own currency.

I am sure you are aware of Triffins paradox?

Gold standard will never work. Hence we will never have gold standard again. And I am against gold standard.

Everyone in mainstream economics know that increase in money supply goes directly to inflation in the long run. So, nothing new about that graph. But it presents only half the picture. Although there was an increase in money supply but still the living standard of Britain went up during this time.
On the backs of the 70% of the rest of the world. The rest of the world subsidised the standards of living in the west. Its very applicable to Britain. The living standards are falling back to the levels where they should be. The see-saw in equalising now as living standards improve where the productivity is.

So if we use a gold backed currency inflation would be directly related to how much gold is dug in an year rather than the productivity increase in the economy. This system is guaranteed to cause deflation if the supply of gold dwindles below what is required for smooth functioning in the economy and it would further lead to increase in unemployment and worsening of the economy. Rather than using a gold standard, we need a monitory policy based on some rules like we have constitution for dealing with other stuff. But jumping to gold standard is an equally big fallacy.
I agree. Gold standard or Gold Exchange Standard is not going to work. Period.
Leaving you with this:


You can find the complete article here with a few good things about Austrian economics: Why I Am Not an Austrian Economist


Good article. There are many deficiencies that I have picked up which I shall endeavour to write up on another day.

And yes we do not need infinite growth to maintain debt-GDP ratio. It is always a political decision whether to tax the current generation or future. But someone will always pay in the end. So there is no point in putting the blame on monetary policy for something that has its roots in our political follies.
The greatest short coming of the human mind is its inability to understand the exponential function. Please see Albert Bartletts video.
 
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Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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Yes scared of debt going sour. They are the lenders.







Who says I am suggesting a currency backed by gold? I have to be very clear here - there will never ever ever ever be a gold standard ever.

What do we need for a gold standard? A lot of gold and to raise its price high enough to be acceptable. Look what USA did with it? Initially 1 oz of fine gold = 20 USD. Then 35USD = 1 oz. then it got out of control when USA went off the gold standard on 15 August 1971.

Remember what Charles De Gaulle said about USA's gold standard - exorbitant privilege.

"Exorbitant privilege" refers to the benefit the United States had in the US Dollar being the international reserve currency: the US would not face a balance of payments crisis, because it purchased imports in its own currency.

I am sure you are aware of Triffins paradox?

Gold standard will never work. Hence we will never have gold standard again. And I am against gold standard.



On the backs of the 70% of the rest of the world. The rest of the world subsidised the standards of living in the west. Its very applicable to Britain. The living standards are falling back to the levels where they should be. The see-saw in equalising now as living standards improve where the productivity is.



I agree. Gold standard or Gold Exchange Standard is not going to work. Period.
Leaving you with this:


You can find the complete article here with a few good things about Austrian economics: Why I Am Not an Austrian Economist


Good article. There are many deficiencies that I have picked up which I shall endeavour to write up on another day.



The greatest short coming of the human mind is its inability to understand the exponential function. Please see Albert Bartletts video.
Surprisingly, we agree on almost everything and still fight. Probably I misunderstood that you agree with Aerokhan(the Ron Paul and gold currency supporter).

Although, I do not agree with 70% statement. If the Indians and Chinese want to save and the west wants to consume/produce or put the capital to work with higher returns, it is a win-win situation(If tomorrow Darfur becomes stable and gives higher return, capital will fly to Darfur and that is where it should ideally be). The only problem would be if there is a problem of repayment. But the system has worked till now because the world trades in $ not because of some banks' hegemony but because US economy has a credibility. If that credibility is washes away for one reason or another, people would look for other secure investments(for eg. there was a flight to Swiss Franks and gold some three months back when there was a problem in US). And not to forget the fact, that Indians and Chinese have bought a lot of real commodities in the US market.

For sure there were some deficiencies in the article I posted, but it sort of gave you an idea why I do not like Austrians post Hayek. Or better I would not call Hayek an Austrian economist.

I saw the video and it was interesting. But economists normally use balanced growth path in their analysis, which in case of steady(even though small) population growth is inevitable to maintain the current standards. Would wait for your critique.
 
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panduranghari

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Though I agree with you I am not in disagreement with aerokan.

Let's compare the 2 arguments:
I am making assumptions- kindly correct me if I am wrong.


Aerokan
Gold standard
No fractional reserve banking
End of ursury

SGU
No gold standard
FRB but controlled by economists and not held at the mercy of politicians
Lending and borrowing permitted

I straddle both lanes- this is a wide load.

Me
No gold standard
No FRB
Lending and borrowing permitted

Let's reconcile as to why there are 3 opinions to solve the current problem?

Would either of you guys or anyone else like to chip in?

If you guys found anything amiss please correct it.
Also referring to the earlier post you made, I think we can explore the answers to your questions posed- why cant china India keep saving and west to keep consuming?
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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Though I agree with you I am not in disagreement with aerokan.

Let's compare the 2 arguments:
I am making assumptions- kindly correct me if I am wrong.


Aerokan
Gold standard
No fractional reserve banking
End of ursury

SGU
No gold standard
FRB but controlled by economists and not held at the mercy of politicians
Lending and borrowing permitted

I straddle both lanes- this is a wide load.

Me
No gold standard
No FRB
Lending and borrowing permitted

Let's reconcile as to why there are 3 opinions to solve the current problem?

Would either of you guys or anyone else like to chip in?

If you guys found anything amiss please correct it.
Also referring to the earlier post you made, I think we can explore the answers to your questions posed- why cant china India keep saving and west to keep consuming?
It almost clearly states my position. But I do not even call for control by economists as they too are politically motivated most times. We need a broad set of rules governing the monetary policy updating in tandem with the new research in macroeconomics. But there has to be a central body to prevent bank runs in case of crisis.

I partly gave my answer to the saving and consumption problem. Would wait for your opinion and answer any possible discrepancies.
 

Ray

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An interesting debate.

But then it is all Greek to me and I don't mean the Greek Tragedy ensuing today.

Still, it is giving me some insight.

Thanks both of you!
 

arya

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they are thiking and talking about future and we are talking about present
 

aerokan

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Surprisingly, we agree on almost everything and still fight. Probably I misunderstood that you agree with Aerokhan(the Ron Paul and gold currency supporter).

Although, I do not agree with 70% statement. If the Indians and Chinese want to save and the west wants to consume/produce or put the capital to work with higher returns, it is a win-win situation(If tomorrow Darfur becomes stable and gives higher return, capital will fly to Darfur and that is where it should ideally be). The only problem would be if there is a problem of repayment. But the system has worked till now because the world trades in $ not because of some banks' hegemony but because US economy has a credibility. If that credibility is washes away for one reason or another, people would look for other secure investments(for eg. there was a flight to Swiss Franks and gold some three months back when there was a problem in US). And not to forget the fact, that Indians and Chinese have bought a lot of real commodities in the US market.

For sure there were some deficiencies in the article I posted, but it sort of gave you an idea why I do not like Austrians post Hayek. Or better I would not call Hayek an Austrian economist.

I saw the video and it was interesting. But economists normally use balanced growth path in their analysis, which in case of steady(even though small) population growth is inevitable to maintain the current standards. Would wait for your critique.

I am a Ron Paul supporter but i don't blindly support everything without a reason. Ron Paul supporter doesn't automatically means a blind gold standard supporter. Any currency in circulation has to be backed by some tangible assets. Be it gold, silver or some other metals or something else which don't easily lose value over time. Also, it should be fair enough to everyone, rather than giving unfair advantage to few (like dollar gives to US). Heck, I even look at new alternate virtual currencies like Bitcoin. But then again, we as a civilization are not yet ready for that. The technological advances are still not there yet to adapt those virtual currencies fully.

Frankly speaking i am not even against interest based system. I am only against bad designs which will eventually bring the downfall of civilizations especially when the economics is linked to human progress. Till they are delinked, we have to suffer the consequences. I don't know how, but if you could make a good design which takes interest but is not inherently designed to bankrupt people, i would gladly take it.

FYI, Ron Paul is for several alternative currencies competing with each other backed by tangible assets.. not just gold standard.
 
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pmaitra

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This has been a very interesting debate so far. Few reflections:
Why gold standard? What could be a good standard?

We need a currency that will not depreciate over a period of time. Therefore, having the currency backed by gold, or silver, or any other precious metal, will surely ensure its stability. There are possible pitfalls, like a sudden discovery of a lot of gold, which could damage the currency of any country that has a gold standard. This happened with the Indian Raupyakam or silver based Rupiyah, due to sudden discovery of silver, which made silver more abundant, and therefore, very cheap. The metals must be easily storable and manageable. There are metals that are dearer than gold, such as uranium and plutonium. They, however, cannot be used as a standard, for obvious reasons, although their value is more likely to increase over the period of time.

Another risk is that the people of the country may not have a direct control or influence on how many currency units are being put into circulation against what amount of gold in the reserves. This could be overcome by actually minting coins in gold, silver, or alloys thereof. This further introduces the problem of goldsmiths scraping off metals from the sides of the coin, as happened during Muhammad-bin-Tughlak's time. There is a remedy. Use serration on the outer edge of the coins to know that they have been tampered with. Even then, they will not be immune to wear and tear, and thus , is not a practical solution.

Now that brings us to the point where, as we find a solution, we see there is a problem. How about we go back to the barter system and see how it could work? Just like the governments of many countries, take into account prices of food grains and other essential commodities to compute the exact value of the currency, and therefore, inflation rate, one needs to think why. One cannot eat gold, or silver. Society needs basic items, like food, clothing, etc., to survive. In the time of needs, these things become more valuable. In the hypothetical scenario of extreme scarcity of food and oil, but abundance of gold, one could see people trading in all three, but essentially needing only food and oil. Gold could be a non-essential medium, in the absence of which, one could simply go ahead and barter their goods. Therefore, a community with lot of food but no oil would simply trade food for oil with another community with lot of oil but no food.

One very important example to cite here would be the USSR. They had the Rouble, but they thoroughly studied the way the world economy functions. However, much of the secrets of world trade and commerce were already known to the big banks and money lenders of Europe, who happened to be Jews, but not as much to the common people on the streets. The possible pitfalls of the (then and now) current system of currency was well known to Karl Marx, a Jew himself, although that might just as well be coincidental. Moreover, the drastic inflation of post WW1 Germany, which was intentional, was also well known. They deliberately printed a lot of currency bills, so that, when repaying their debts, they were actually giving away worthless money. The USSR did not want to have too much reserves of foreign currency anyway, rather relied much on the barter system. The Soviet Navy sent out large ships all across the oceans, that had fishermen, processing and canning units, workers' quarters, cinema halls, shops, everything. In other words, these were floating villages. These ships would stay in the high seas, catch fish, crabs and other marine animals, clean them, pack or can them, and then take them to nearby countries, hand them over, and get other goods in return, but not US dollars (with exceptions, of course). This way, the USSR tried to keep itself buffered from the manipulations of the US dollar. The PRC also tries to emulate this in most of her foreign dealings, but now, that she has US government bonds, which are nothing but pieces of paper, the honchos of PRC might as well have a couple of extra worry-lines on their foreheads. In this context, Ron Paul probably is saying the right things to save the US dollar. However, that will put many of the financial corporations out of business, and expose the fallacy of the premise on which the world economy is run.

So, we come back to the same question. We cannot trust a currency that we do not control. We cannot be held liable for any currency that we do not have complete control or right over. Yet, courts and laws enforce the currency, not the mass of gold each currency unit was equivalent to, when the transaction started or the terms and conditions were agreed upon.

So, we need to have a currency that stays stable, or we can simply go back to the barter system. As rudimentary as it might be, the entire transaction is crystal clear in front of the eyes.
 

panduranghari

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So there is no point in putting the blame on monetary policy for something that has its roots in our political follies.


Moreover, even if most businesspeople don't understand that low interest rates are only temporary, the long-term interest rate will still be a good forecast so long as the professional interest rate speculators don't make the same mistake.
The Austrian theory also suffers from serious internal inconsistencies. If, as in the Austrian theory, initial consumption/investment preferences "re-assert themselves," why don't the consumption goods industries enjoy a huge boom during depressions? After all, if the prices of the capital goods factors are too high, are not the prices of the consumption goods factors too low? Wage workers in capital goods industries are unhappy when old time preferences re-assert themselves. But wage workers in consumer goods industries should be overjoyed. The Austrian theory predicts a decline in employment in some sectors, but an increase in others; thus, it does nothing to explain why unemployment is high during the "bust" and low during the "boom."
A final supposed merit of the ABC is that it explains why capital goods industries suffer more than consumer goods industries during depressions.[53] Modern neoclassical economics however offers a simple alternative explanation. One interesting business cycle fact is that durable consumer goods production suffers along with the capital goods industries. A simple explanation for both phenomenon is that any durable good purchase, whether durable capital goods or durable consumer goods, is going to be much more sensitive to changes in income or profitability than non-durable purchases. In any period buyers of durable goods both replenish their stock to account for depreciation, plus adjust their desired total stock depending upon new information about profitability (for firms) or permanent income (for individuals). The arrival of a depression causes both forecasts to be adjusted downwards; often this means that there is no point even making up for depreciation, since natural wear-and-tear simply moves you closer to your new, lower total stock. The most basic model of demand for durable goods provides a coherent explanation for why producers' goods industries suffer more during depressions; and unlike the "acceleration" theory that Rothbard properly ridicules, the theory of demand for durable goods follows rigorously from basic microeconomics
Another interesting argument made in favor of the Austrian theory is that it is the only theory capable of explaining stagflation - the simultaneous presence of high unemployment and high inflation.
a. Natural resource shocks, e.g. oil (reduces supply, raising price and reducing output).

b. The rational-expectations explanation: Workers wake up from their real/nominal wage confusion and demand a raise to compensate for inflation (again, reduces supply, raising price and reducing output). Lucas won the last Nobel prize for his work on this idea.

c. Technology shocks (again, reduces supply, raising price and reduces output). The theory which attributes business cycles to technology shocks, known as real business cycle theory, has been a hot topic in macro theory for a decade.
Let me emphasize that all of the arguments in this section have been essentially theoretical, not empirical.
Austrians were entirely correct to decry the dinosaur Keynesians' neglect of the interaction between wages and employment.[55] Government officials, journalists, the general public, and weaker academics still need to learn this lesson. But the modal academic economist already knows the lesson. If the ABC has anything to contribute, it must add something further - something both original and true - to this lesson. There is little reason to believe that it can.
How inept can the writer of that essay can be? I have highlighted a few points.

He says low interest rates can remain low but long term interest rates will still stay high. He is not consistent. He believes that short term rates do not affect how companies behave. The major companies TODAY are holding enormous cash buffers currently as they feel if the interest rates rise they could be caught out. There is a reduction in the capital outlay as well. There are constant reports where David Cameron is asking companies to invest more, recruit more but these CFO's are smart. They know interest rates could rise and there may be a problem.

He also says why don't consumption good industries have a boom in depression when prices are low. He is surely smoking something that has affected his mentation. Would you ensure your wife, kids, parents are fed and dressed than ensure where they want to go for a vacation? Ass backward thinking at its best.

Keyenesian economists contradict themselves so well. Anyway the above mentioned author will not stand a chance when debating with even a novice like me. Forget about the people like Antal Fekete, Sandeep Jaitley etc.
 

panduranghari

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It almost clearly states my position. But I do not even call for control by economists as they too are politically motivated most times. We need a broad set of rules governing the monetary policy updating in tandem with the new research in macroeconomics. But there has to be a central body to prevent bank runs in case of crisis..
A good friend has written this essay. I reproduce it in full. All credit to 'Blondie, Tuco and Angeleyes'

the flow of value: Symbiosis

In a properly functioning monetary system in which the flow and the valuation of elemental gold is uninhibited, deflation is neither good nor bad, it just is. In such a system both inflation and deflation have a role, as the brake and the spur. As the value in gold of the local currency changes, so the users of that currency adjust their efforts accordingly. And the result is an equilibrium, a self-correcting system, a natural symbiosis between the producers and the consumers where one is naturally encouraged to become the other.

To sterilize gold is to neuter such a system, to resist what would otherwise naturally be.

We can talk about such a system in terms of economics, but it is really an organic process, a natural law that is part of all natural systems. Or we could perhaps say that this is nature's economic system. If you look closely, it is visible in all processes, at all scales. Give and take. Symbiosis. This is a relationship where each is a pre-requisite for the other, like light and dark; high and low; life and death. There is no existence in isolation; neither the producer nor the consumer can exist without the other.

Our current monetary system attempts to be an exception, which is why its demise is inevitable. What we witness in the world around us are the results of this current sterilized system, a system where the consumers have artificially removed the brake on their consumption and the spur for them to produce.

None of us like what we see ourselves doing, both individually and collectively, to each other and to our environment, yet despite this we remain apparently involuntary participants, seemingly powerless to opt out. The positive change we can make in this regard is to store our own surplus value in gold, to make it fertile again. When enough physical gold is being treated in this fashion either by those who understand gold's function, or by those who store their value there through self interest (and both groups who can do this are by definition net producers), then the current system collapses (synthetic paper gold no longer trades at par with physical gold) and net consumers find they are newly motivated via an objective unit of value measurement.

Because value can then be assigned correctly, the effects of any activity can be accurately factored into the value of the resulting product, and much of what we see today in the way of negative impacts would be immediately disincentivized. People are then able to value themselves objectively too, changing the way they feel about themselves as their perspective becomes less subjective.

If you are not currently in a position to produce a surplus with which to procure physical gold, don't worry about it. The benefits of this change will flow to all, producer and consumer alike, and with hindsight capital gain will appear very small cheese indeed in comparison. Everything will be recalibrated, and everything will become ridiculously straightforward. The participants in any symbiotic relationship are not necessarily aware of how this relationship functions, but rather participate intuitively.

A properly functioning value exchange system is no different.
There is no need for any central authority making decisions. I do feel Central Banks have a role. However it will be a lot different from what it is today.
 
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panduranghari

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I am a Ron Paul supporter but i don't blindly support everything without a reason. Ron Paul supporter doesn't automatically means a blind gold standard supporter. Any currency in circulation has to be backed by some tangible assets. Be it gold, silver or some other metals or something else which don't easily lose value over time. Also, it should be fair enough to everyone, rather than giving unfair advantage to few (like dollar gives to US). Heck, I even look at new alternate virtual currencies like Bitcoin. But then again, we as a civilization are not yet ready for that. The technological advances are still not there yet to adapt those virtual currencies fully.

Frankly speaking i am not even against interest based system. I am only against bad designs which will eventually bring the downfall of civilizations especially when the economics is linked to human progress. Till they are delinked, we have to suffer the consequences. I don't know how, but if you could make a good design which takes interest but is not inherently designed to bankrupt people, i would gladly take it.

FYI, Ron Paul is for several alternative currencies competing with each other backed by tangible assets.. not just gold standard.
Actually Ron Paul is close to what my thinking is. However he is still far away.

Here is a very good video;


The problem with botcoins is most of them are owned by Satoshi Nakamoto. And it is energy intense activity. Highlighting the bold bit. Why do you think should a currency be backed by something tangible?

Also why do you think the gold standard failed? I think we can explore answers and I hope to show you how a return to gold standard is not likely.
 
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panduranghari

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An interesting debate.

But then it is all Greek to me and I don't mean the Greek Tragedy ensuing today.

Still, it is giving me some insight.

Thanks both of you!
Dear Sir,
You do not need to be a Greek here. What I can say with certainty is if you can, whatever you can, as much as you can, whenever you can buy physical gold. Its considered expensive now. But its not.

 

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panduranghari

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Now that brings us to the point where, as we find a solution, we see there is a problem. How about we go back to the barter system and see how it could work? Just like the governments of many countries, take into account prices of food grains and other essential commodities to compute the exact value of the currency, and therefore, inflation rate, one needs to think why. One cannot eat gold, or silver. Society needs basic items, like food, clothing, etc., to survive. In the time of needs, these things become more valuable. In the hypothetical scenario of extreme scarcity of food and oil, but abundance of gold, one could see people trading in all three, but essentially needing only food and oil. Gold could be a non-essential medium, in the absence of which, one could simply go ahead and barter their goods. Therefore, a community with lot of food but no oil would simply trade food for oil with another community with lot of oil but no food.


Have you ever heard of double coincidences of wants?

From wikipedia;
The coincidence of wants problem (often "double coincidence of wants") is an important category of transaction costs that impose severe limitations on economies lacking money and thus dominated by barter or other in-kind transactions. The problem is caused by the improbability of the wants, needs or events that cause or motivate a transaction occurring at the same time and the same place. One example is the bar musician who is "paid" with liquor or food, items which his landlord will not accept as rent payment, when the musician would rather have a month's shelter. If, instead, the musician's landlord were to throw a party and desire music for it, hiring the musician to play it by offering the month's rent in exchange, a double coincidence of wants would exist.
In-kind transactions have several limitations, most notably timing constraints. If you wish to trade fruit for wheat, you can only do this when the fruit and wheat are both available at the same time and place (and, additionally, only if someone wishes to trade wheat for fruit). That may be a very brief time, or it may be never. With money, (broadly speaking, any commodity used as a medium of exchange) you can sell your fruit when it is ripe and take the money. You can then use the money to buy wheat when the wheat harvest comes in. Thus the use of money makes all commodities more liquid.
Besides barter, other kinds of in-kind transactions also suffer from the coincidence of wants problem in the absence of money. For example, when wealth is transferred during marriage, divorce, inheritance, and other crucial life events, or during the collection of taxes or tribute, it is improbable that this event will coincide with the recipient's desire for the commodities the payor can readily obtain, unless they are intermediate commodities, i.e. money. In the absence of money, all of these transactions suffer from the basic problem of barter -- they require an improbable coincidence of wants and events.
The term 'double coincidence of wants' was coined by William Stanley Jevons.[1]
As you can see Money is pivotal. And why go back to the stone age. Do you not agree that credit card or debit card or paypal or paper money is a convenience?


This way, the USSR tried to keep itself buffered from the manipulations of the US dollar. The PRC also tries to emulate this in most of her foreign dealings, but now, that she has US government bonds, which are nothing but pieces of paper, the honchos of PRC might as well have a couple of extra worry-lines on their foreheads.[/COLOR] In this context, Ron Paul probably is saying the right things to save the US dollar. However, that will put many of the financial corporations out of business, and expose the fallacy of the premise on which the world economy is run.

So, we come back to the same question. We cannot trust a currency that we do not control. We cannot be held liable for any currency that we do not have complete control or right over. Yet, courts and laws enforce the currency, not the mass of gold each currency unit was equivalent to, when the transaction started or the terms and conditions were agreed upon.

So, we need to have a currency that stays stable, or we can simply go back to the barter system. As rudimentary as it might be, the entire transaction is crystal clear in front of the eyes.
Lets just step back a bit and try seeing the problem with a fresh set of eyes.

What is money?

Money is defined as unit of account, store of value and a medium of exchange.

Its a unit of account - thus we know how much we have earned from the fruits of labour or not.

Its a medium of exchange - thus you come to me and I fill your tooth - you pay me for my services on pre arranged contract agreement.

Its a store of value - thus when I am old and infirm and I wish to use my fruits of labour to pay for a gall bladder surgery I can work for it when I am in my 30's thus use this when I am in my 80's.

J P Morgan under oath said ' Gold is money and nothing else' He said this in 1913. That is when US dollar was as good as gold. You could go to a bank and turn your gold in and get US dollars.

However it is not any more. And we have people still considering US dollar as a true money as defined by the 3 terms. How can US dollar be a store of value now when US Fed under the advise of the treasury print it out of thin air?


If DFI was a commune on an remote island in the Southern Pacific and we had sea shells as currency with only 100 sea shells available. It was fixed in value and number. On the DFI island everyone had just 1 sea shell and the annual addition to these shells is just 10. Lets say the inflation is effectively 10% as money supply increases annually at 10%.

However if a foreigner turns up with another 50 sea shells does he not get an added advantage of being able to afford things without working for them. He has thus diluted the money on the island and the number of sea shells have suddenly increased for no particular reason. That's debasing the currency. Like Central banks are doing.

With gold backing US dollar, in 1933 after the great depression the exchange rate was increased arbitrarily from 20 usd/oz to 35usd/oz. Thus the money supply increased officially.This process of debasing went on until 1971 when the USA could not afford to ship out any more gold. The Vietnam war was fought with US treasury in the red.

Soon after US went off gold standard the price of gold started rising. The world still used US dollar as there was no alternative currency. Would you rather have barter or the convenience of money?
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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How inept can the writer of that essay can be? I have highlighted a few points.

He says low interest rates can remain low but long term interest rates will still stay high. He is not consistent. He believes that short term rates do not affect how companies behave. The major companies TODAY are holding enormous cash buffers currently as they feel if the interest rates rise they could be caught out. There is a reduction in the capital outlay as well. There are constant reports where David Cameron is asking companies to invest more, recruit more but these CFO's are smart. They know interest rates could rise and there may be a problem.

He also says why don't consumption good industries have a boom in depression when prices are low. He is surely smoking something that has affected his mentation. Would you ensure your wife, kids, parents are fed and dressed than ensure where they want to go for a vacation? Ass backward thinking at its best.

Keyenesian economists contradict themselves so well. Anyway the above mentioned author will not stand a chance when debating with even a novice like me. Forget about the people like Antal Fekete, Sandeep Jaitley etc.
Dude, you did not read his argument well enough. In the interest rate example above, he says that a naive businessmen might commit a mistake and assume that interest rates might remain low even over a longer horizon. But the professionals would not commit this mistake and correct the error. The big companies that you are talking above are exactly doing the correction the author is talking about. So, it is signal for the naive businessmen(do read the whole paragraph where he mentions it).
Consumption goods industry means exactly what you are talking about. He mentions about durable goods industry under consumption goods, which will take a hit during recession. He is not talking about vacation(luxury goods).

You sure might stand a chance while debating with him but you need to understand his arguments before ridiculing, which I see you have not done this time.
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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An interesting debate.

But then it is all Greek to me and I don't mean the Greek Tragedy ensuing today.

Still, it is giving me some insight.

Thanks both of you!
It is nice that you are enjoying our small chit-chat.

It would be great if we can clarify some of your doubts about the system.
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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I am a Ron Paul supporter but i don't blindly support everything without a reason. Ron Paul supporter doesn't automatically means a blind gold standard supporter. Any currency in circulation has to be backed by some tangible assets. Be it gold, silver or some other metals or something else which don't easily lose value over time. Also, it should be fair enough to everyone, rather than giving unfair advantage to few (like dollar gives to US). Heck, I even look at new alternate virtual currencies like Bitcoin. But then again, we as a civilization are not yet ready for that. The technological advances are still not there yet to adapt those virtual currencies fully.

Frankly speaking i am not even against interest based system. I am only against bad designs which will eventually bring the downfall of civilizations especially when the economics is linked to human progress. Till they are delinked, we have to suffer the consequences. I don't know how, but if you could make a good design which takes interest but is not inherently designed to bankrupt people, i would gladly take it.

FYI, Ron Paul is for several alternative currencies competing with each other backed by tangible assets.. not just gold standard.
Cool. You backtracked a few of your points.

Unfair advantage to US!!! Well, its a belief which has developed over years due to stability and strength of their economy. Check my one of the last posts where I mention that it is all about credibility. US has it today, tomorrow it might not. People flock to other stable items like gold, swiss frank when US economy lands itself into doldrums. It is fairly competitive in that sense. For eg. Take the latest Vodafone controversy: In an already weak scenario, the govt. rather than reducing structural deficiencies went after Vodafone for a small tax collection. What makes it worse is that it is retrospective taxation. If govt. starts changing rules of the game every now and then(the investment was done using the old rules of the game), it brings down the credibility. The results of Indian economy post the budget are in front of you.

As far as competing currencies are concerned, Ron Paul cannot even create that in the US. Expect the further rise of China or stability of the Euro Zone, and competition between them would ensure more options to the people. Till the time you cannot match their economy, forget about competition.
 

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Why gold standard? What could be a good standard?

We need a currency that will not depreciate over a period of time. Therefore, having the currency backed by gold, or silver, or any other precious metal, will surely ensure its stability. There are possible pitfalls, like a sudden discovery of a lot of gold, which could damage the currency of any country that has a gold standard. This happened with the Indian Raupyakam or silver based Rupiyah, due to sudden discovery of silver, which made silver more abundant, and therefore, very cheap. The metals must be easily storable and manageable. There are metals that are dearer than gold, such as uranium and plutonium. They, however, cannot be used as a standard, for obvious reasons, although their value is more likely to increase over the period of time.

Another risk is that the people of the country may not have a direct control or influence on how many currency units are being put into circulation against what amount of gold in the reserves. This could be overcome by actually minting coins in gold, silver, or alloys thereof. This further introduces the problem of goldsmiths scraping off metals from the sides of the coin, as happened during Muhammad-bin-Tughlak's time. There is a remedy. Use serration on the outer edge of the coins to know that they have been tampered with. Even then, they will not be immune to wear and tear, and thus , is not a practical solution.

Now that brings us to the point where, as we find a solution, we see there is a problem. How about we go back to the barter system and see how it could work? Just like the governments of many countries, take into account prices of food grains and other essential commodities to compute the exact value of the currency, and therefore, inflation rate, one needs to think why. One cannot eat gold, or silver. Society needs basic items, like food, clothing, etc., to survive. In the time of needs, these things become more valuable. In the hypothetical scenario of extreme scarcity of food and oil, but abundance of gold, one could see people trading in all three, but essentially needing only food and oil. Gold could be a non-essential medium, in the absence of which, one could simply go ahead and barter their goods. Therefore, a community with lot of food but no oil would simply trade food for oil with another community with lot of oil but no food.

One very important example to cite here would be the USSR. They had the Rouble, but they thoroughly studied the way the world economy functions. However, much of the secrets of world trade and commerce were already known to the big banks and money lenders of Europe, who happened to be Jews, but not as much to the common people on the streets. The possible pitfalls of the (then and now) current system of currency was well known to Karl Marx, a Jew himself, although that might just as well be coincidental. Moreover, the drastic inflation of post WW1 Germany, which was intentional, was also well known. They deliberately printed a lot of currency bills, so that, when repaying their debts, they were actually giving away worthless money. The USSR did not want to have too much reserves of foreign currency anyway, rather relied much on the barter system. The Soviet Navy sent out marge ships all across the oceans, that had fishermen, processing and canning units, workers' quarters, cinema halls, shops, everything. In other words, these were floating villages. These ships would stay in the high seas, catch fish, crabs and other marine animals, clean them, pack or can them, and then take them to nearby countries, hand them over, and get other goods in return, but not US dollars (with exceptions, of course). This way, the USSR tried to keep itself buffered from the manipulations of the US dollar. The PRC also tries to emulate this in most of her foreign dealings, but now, that she has US government bonds, which are nothing but pieces of paper, the honchos of PRC might as well have a couple of extra worry-lines on their foreheads. In this context, Ron Paul probably is saying the right things to save the US dollar. However, that will put many of the financial corporations out of business, and expose the fallacy of the premise on which the world economy is run.

So, we come back to the same question. We cannot trust a currency that we do not control. We cannot be held liable for any currency that we do not have complete control or right over. Yet, courts and laws enforce the currency, not the mass of gold each currency unit was equivalent to, when the transaction started or the terms and conditions were agreed upon.

So, we need to have a currency that stays stable, or we can simply go back to the barter system. As rudimentary as it might be, the entire transaction is crystal clear in front of the eyes.
The article says it all. It gives more than sufficient reasons to not go back to the gold standard. Add some of my last posts about this problem and the picture looks much more complete.

Barter is good if you have the exact things one wants to exchange but there was a reason why we did away with it. Remove the prices from any economy and everything crumbles down. What you would then get instead of prices would be dealers(helping in barter) in between and they being human would perform worse.

You alone do not control the currency and no one does. As I pointed in above some posts, $ has been stable and hence had been the preferred currency of exchange. If that belief erodes, which has many reasons to erode, no one would give a shit about dollar. Go back to barter system, I am sure the guy must be joking about it(Would you like to sell me your laptop for 1000 underwears I just manufactured)!!!
 

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A good friend has written this essay. I reproduce it in full. All credit to 'Blondie, Tuco and Angeleyes'

In a properly functioning monetary system in which the flow and the valuation of elemental gold is uninhibited, deflation is neither good nor bad, it just is. In such a system both inflation and deflation have a role, as the brake and the spur. As the value in gold of the local currency changes, so the users of that currency adjust their efforts accordingly. And the result is an equilibrium, a self-correcting system, a natural symbiosis between the producers and the consumers where one is naturally encouraged to become the other.
This is the most absurd paragraph you have pasted, since the start of our discussion. The guy has no clue about what he is talking. It is plain rhetoric with no scientific backing of the arguments. Users of different currencies still adjust their efforts according to competitiveness and productivity, which is inherently related to their currency.
And as discussed before, gold backed currency is not feasible, so no point talking about it(even you agreed to the infeasibility).
 

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Actually Ron Paul is close to what my thinking is. However he is still far away.

Here is a very good video;


The problem with botcoins is most of them are owned by Satoshi Nakamoto. And it is energy intense activity. Highlighting the bold bit. Why do you think should a currency be backed by something tangible?

Also why do you think the gold standard failed? I think we can explore answers and I hope to show you how a return to gold standard is not likely.
I already mentioned in my post before, that we are not yet ready for the pure virutally derived currencies like bitcoin for the obvious reasons like what you mentioned. They are energy intensive and is taxing on the environment. I also mentioned that we still need some more technological advancements and it will take atleast another half a century to even think of implementing them main stream. In the present day scenario, any currency should be backed by tangible assets, given the imperfections of the monetary systems prevailing today and the technological challenges we have yet to overcome.

Why do i need tangible assets now? It achieves two things. First, it puts a limit on anyone's ability to indiscriminately rake up currency out of thin air. Yes it does have it's own problems like finding huge assets. But this is not 1900's. We have enough maturity on mining as of now, which avoids big surprises. Second, it gives people some control over their savings. We have to understand the psycology of the people also when designing a system. Metals don't lose value because of it's alternate uses. If for example, tommorow pak cease to exist suddenly, what will i do if all my investments are in pak rupees? The guarentor of the paper money i have is gone and the pak rupees won't even be good enough for wiping my posterior(where sun doesn't shine) :D

If it's metals, i can use them for several purposes. They are used in communications, used in all kinds of equipment possible and it becomes really hard to lose value in totality. Other competing forms may get priority from time to time, but confidence level of metals won't go down in totality. For now, currency backed by a basket of metals is a good start. Since we are trying to apply patches to the broken system, it will work well enough to keep the engine running.
 
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aerokan

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Cool. You backtracked a few of your points.

Unfair advantage to US!!! Well, its a belief which has developed over years due to stability and strength of their economy. Check my one of the last posts where I mention that it is all about credibility. US has it today, tomorrow it might not. People flock to other stable items like gold, swiss frank when US economy lands itself into doldrums. It is fairly competitive in that sense. For eg. Take the latest Vodafone controversy: In an already weak scenario, the govt. rather than reducing structural deficiencies went after Vodafone for a small tax collection. What makes it worse is that it is retrospective taxation. If govt. starts changing rules of the game every now and then(the investment was done using the old rules of the game), it brings down the credibility. The results of Indian economy post the budget are in front of you.

As far as competing currencies are concerned, Ron Paul cannot even create that in the US. Expect the further rise of China or stability of the Euro Zone, and competition between them would ensure more options to the people. Till the time you cannot match their economy, forget about competition.
Backtracked? No. Decrypted? Yes :)


People may flock to different currencies when there is a problem. But considering the number of times, the monetary system changed till now, due to the imperfections, it is safe to assume that one person's investment over his/her life time in a particular currency will end up losing value by the time he/she retires. Is it fair enough that every generation loses it's life savings because of the stupid system? Everytime, they have to flock to a different currency or metal, it comes with downturns and subsequent wars. They have serious repurcussions. A good design should work effectively, irrespective of the short comings. Existing one doesn't. Period!!

As you said, govt is the choke point here. Then why keep it in the middle always? Why not a better system which doesn't rely on govt to get things running?
Ron Paul wants that to change. He wants open competition on currencies and it is not possible right away because of the Federal backing of incompetent dollar. He couldn't do it because he is not yet president and it takes lot of time for brainwashed people to unlearn. Instead of focusing on the brainwashed generation, he is focusing on the next gen to make sure they learn the monetary system in a way that it is. Also, forget abt the stability of Euro zone. It has to fall before it stabilizes. One will have face the consequences of their actions.
 

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