Civil war in Ukraine

[Akim]

No Polish apples?

I know they did not want to give free coal. At least they should have given apples.

No, this is from the "the humanitarian convoy" Putler. Sold all over hryvnia 1 per kilogram.

 

[Akim]

Huge queues. This is because the militants issued simultaneously social cards.

 

[pmaitra]

@Akim, what is your opinion about that column of KamAZ trucks posted above? I think they are carrying weapons from Russia to help the NovoRussian militia.

 

[Akim]

@Akim, what is your opinion about that column of KamAZ trucks posted above? I think they are carrying weapons from Russia to help the NovoRussian militia.

I have already spoken. This is the Russian army, is preparing to offensive on the Mariupol and Volnovaha.

 

[pmaitra]

I have already spoken. This is the Russian army, is preparing to offensive on the Mariupol and Volnovaha.

Ok, I might have missed your opinion. Let us wait and see what happens.

 

[bhramos]

"Journalists Arabic TV channel" Aldzhazira "visited the repair base DNI where militia units repairing dozens of captured armored vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBC1Ubt1LFY

 

[bhramos]

Cossack artisans who restored the T-34 tank and made "‹"‹it suitable for combat operations. This tank was destroyed Nazism seven decades ago, will serve to eradicate from Bandera contagion in our days. "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky_RwtIiBdg

 

[bhramos]

Photos from the brigade "Ghost" Alexei Brain.

 

[bhramos]

 

[bhramos]

03.11.14. Current map of hostilities.

 

[bhramos]

Election in Donetsk airport

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3iTtt8XtG4

 

[bhramos]

explosion at the checkpoint in Mariupol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRb56_zenI0

 

[bhramos]

Ukrainians humiliate refugee from eastern Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu4I7AtNu10

 

[arpakola]

This is why the Russians want to tightly regulate foreign NGOs
How is that for a "watch" of human right?

 

[arpakola]

Igor Strelkov press-conference 30/10/14 Full

 

[arpakola]

Something very, very interesting has happened in Novorussia
The Vineyard of the Saker: Something very, very interesting has happened in Novorussia

Something fantastically interesting has happened in Novorussia: two senior Novorussian commanders, Igor Bezler and Alexei Mozgovoi have attempted to communicate with those Ukrainians who are on the other side.

Though I am not sure about the exact dates of the events (all I have is the dates of the posting on YouTube), this apparently began when Igor Bezler agreed to be interviewed by three TV crews at the same time: a Russian one, a Novorussian one, and a Ukrainian one. The big news here was, of course, that a Ukrainian journalist was given access to the city of Gorlovka, currently surrounded by Ukrainian forces, and that she got to speak with the local people, including combatants and then that she was given access to Bezler himself. Since all the journalists were more or less openly accusing each other of "filtering the truth" all parties agreed that the full recording, unedited, would be made available on YouTube. Now please keep in mind that in Banderastan, Russian journalists are blacklisted, Russian TV stations banned, and that the people in the junta controlled Ukraine are told that the other side are terrorists and Russian soldiers. Oh, and the Ukrainian media is the most disgusting, sold out, subservient, propagandistic you can imagine. And then suddenly, at least one Ukrainian TV crew agrees to show the face of one of the most feared Novorussian commanders and he get's to speak his mind.

But the next event was even more amazing. Alexei Mozgovoi agreed to a videoconference with not only Ukrainian journalists, but with actual field commanders of the Ukrainian military. To see Mozgovoi and the Ukrainians speak directly to each other was absolutely amazing. And here I have to apologize. I will not ask our translators to translate and subtitle the full thing. First, there were not one, but two such videoconferences. Then, we are talking about three long videos, see for yourself:

Bezler interview: Published on Oct 21, 2014
Безлер даёт интервью 1+1 - YouTube (length: 2 hours 17 min)

First videoconference of Mozgovoi: Published on Oct 22, 2014
ПОЛНОЕ ВИДЕО Мозговой на скайпе с представителями АТО! Украина новости сегодня - YouTube (length: 1 hour 20 mins)

Second videoconference of Mozgovoi: Published Oct 28, 2014
Телемост 2 Мозговой на связи с украинцами Украина новости сегодня - YouTube (length:1 hour 51 mins)

I do hope that somebody somewhere will translate it all, but this is way too big a load for me to ask any of our volunteers.

Also, these are very complex videos. There are discussions, some short moments of yelling and interrupting, there is cross-talk and there are even two songs. This is complex, very emotional stuff, very hard to convey in a translated text. Besides, who will have the time to sit through it all?

No, what I propose is to share with you the elements which struck me so much.

But first I need to clarify an important point: while the original idea apparently had been to have combatants talking to combatants, the Ukrainian side only had a few commanders and a few activists. The Novorussian side was composed of actual soldiers. Apparently, the Ukrainian side did not feel comfortable putting their foot-soldiers on the spot.

First and foremost, it was amazing to see how much both sides fully agreed upon. Both sides agreed that this war was useless and only benefited the enemies of the Ukraine. Both sides expressed contempt, disgust and even hatred for the politicians in power and the oligarchs who rule over Banderastan today. Both sides also agree that Yanukovich was a scumbag and that the Maidan protests were absolutely legitimate but that the original protests had been hijacked by enemies of the Ukraine. Both sides also agreed that this war had to be stopped. Now, please keep in mind that Ukrainian Nazis were, of course, not invited. These were mainly regular Ukrainian military speaking to Novorussian military and Ukrainian activists speaking to Mozgovoi. There were also some real disagreements.

The Ukrainian position was this (paraphrase - not real quote): "the Maidan was legitimate and correct but you - the Novorussians - took up arms and you thereby created a crisis which the illegitimate junta used and which prevented us from defending our political goals. We don't want our country to further break up and what you are doing is exactly that. Also, we know that the Russian "Polite Armed Men in Green" are fighting on your side and many of you are not representing true Ukrainian interests, but Russian interests. Stop fighting and join the political process to clean our country from the crazies".

To which Mozgovoi replied (paraphrase - not real quote): "we did not choose to fight, you came to our land and you are killing our people. If you really want to clean Kiev from the Nazi scum, then don't stand between us and Kiev and let us pass - we will take care of them no problem. You are taking orders from Nazis and oligarchs and you are doing nothing to stop them from killing our people. If we were to lay down our arms, we would all be massacred.

One interesting thing was that when the Ukrainians accused the Novorussians of doing Russia's bidding, Mozgovoi replied that the Ukrainians were pawns of the CIA and, amazingly, the Ukrainians pretty much agreed that the CIA was running the show. As for Mozgovoi, he did not deny that Russia was helping.

Both sides were expressing frustration that they could not unite their forces and jointly get rid of the oligarchs and Nazis.

During the Bezler interview, there was one amazing moment was when the Ukrainian crew asked Bezler if he spoke Ukrainian, to which he replied that 'yes'. Unconvinced, the Ukrainian crew asked him if he could recite a poem by the famous poet Taras Shevchenko. Then, to everybody's surprise, Bezler recited the poem "to the Poles" in which Sevchenko describes how happy the Cossaks were,

Until in the name of Christ
The ксьондзи (Latin Priests) came and set afire
To our quiet paradise. And spilled
A huge sea of tears and blood,
And killed and crucified orphans
In the Name of Christ
The heads of Cossacks then dropped
Like trampled grass,
The Ukraine cried, and moaned!
And the head after head
Fell to the ground. As if enraged,
A priest furious tongue
Screamed: «Te Deum! Hallelujah! .. "
And this is how my Polish friend and brother!
Evil priests and rich men
Separated us from each other
When we could have lived together happy

[nb: this is my own translation, I could not find this poem in English anywhere; as any Russian, I mostly understand Ukrainian, but I can easily misunderstand a word or expression so, caveat emptor, and don't take this translation to the bank! The Saker]

It was quite amazing to see how well Bezler spoke Ukrainian and how he used this opportunity to remind his Ukrainian counterparts how already in the past they were used and manipulated by Russia and Orthodoxy -hating westerners, and he did so using verses of their own national hero!

In another rather surreal moment, a Novorussian solider took out a guitar and sang a song about the war. The Ukrainians were clearly moved, although they were also disturbed by the fact that the song repeatedly said that these were "Russians fighting Russians". This issue came up several again later in the conversation. From the Novorussian point of view, the Ukrainians were also part of the "Russian cultural realm" (as opposed to state or nationality) albeit with a different accent and a different history. The Ukrainians insisted that they were a different nationality, albeit one with strong ties to the "Russian cultural realm".

During both the Bezler and Mozgovoi interviews the issue of prisoners was raised. Both sides reported that their men were mistreated and even tortured while in captivity. Interestingly, during the Bezler interview there were two Ukrainian officials present, one human right activist and another who was representing the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for the topic of POWs. They both readily admitted that Bezler treated the Ukrainian prisoners not as prisoners at all, but as guests: they were free to walk around, they ate and slept with Bezler's men, they were treated with kindness and hospitality. In once instance he even fed them red caviar! But the very same Bezler openly admitted that "we take no prisoners from the Nazi death squads" confirming what I have said many times: the Russian kindness and generosity towards Ukrainian POWs only extends to regular army units - captured death squad members are immediately executed.

There are hundred of small moments and exchanges which I wish I could convey to you, but that would take too much space and time. What I will say is that it was quite amazing to see enemies talking to each other in a very friendly manner. I was also amazed at how readily the Ukrainians agreed that the Ukraine must rid herself from the Nazis and the oligarchs. In various occasions people on both sides said "let's do that together!". Others were more dubious. Frankly, I am extremely impressed by the courage and decency of many of the Ukrainians in these interviews who, while standing their ground on the issue of the territorial integrity of the Ukraine, quite openly said how much they hated the Nazis and the oligarchs. I sure hope that God will protect these men for their courage.

Both Bezler and Mozgovoi looked very, very good. The latter especially surprised me by explicitly stating that his goal was regime change in Kiev and not just the separation of Novorussia which he clearly sees as a only temporary solution and as a necessary self-defense measure. Clearly, both Bezler and Mozgovoi are first and foremost anti-Nazis and both of them see that there is not "Novorussian solution". Mozgovoi explicitly stated that he think that both sides could live together if the Ukrainians got rid of their Nazis and oligarchs.

While I have always said that the only possible stable solution of the crisis is a de-nazification of the Ukraine and a conversion of the current Banderastan into a "mentally sane" Ukraine, I am not naive and I also see that this might take a decade or more. However, seeing how Mozgovoi and his Ukrainian counterparts agreed on the need to de-nazify and de-oligarchise (is that English?) I see that there is hope because the bottom line is this: both sides have much more in common than what separates them!

Again, these were regular Ukrainians, not crazed Nazi death-squad members, I understand that. And the two sides do disagree on fundamental issues. I see that too. But I also see that there is a basis, a minimum in common, to negotiate. This does not have to be a war of extermination.

The Ukraine as we knew her is dead. Now we have Crimea and Novorussia which are gone forever, and a rump-Ukraine I call "Banderastan" which is occupied by the US CIA, Ukie Nazis and oligarchs. My hope is that the just as the Ukrainian civil war turned into a war for the self-determination and liberation of Novorussia, so will the war for self-determination and liberation of Novorussia turn into a war for the liberation of Banderastan from its US/Nazi/oligarchic occupiers. If that happens and if a new Ukraine eventually emerges, then I have no doubt that the people of the Ukraine will agree that each region should have the right of self-determination ranging from cultural right to full separation. Only then will we really find out which regions want to stay and which ones want to leave forever.

In the meantime, I am very positively impressed by the Novorussian field commanders. Bezler and Mozgovoi of course, but also Givi, Motorola, Zakharchenko, Kononov and the others are all strong figures capable of both fighting and talking. Strelkov, alas, is still more or less in political no man's land and I am very concerned about his proximity with the blogger el-Murid who is clearly a "gateway" to the "hurray-patriots" and "Putin bashers" which are being used by the Empire to try to discredit Putin. Still, the political infighting amongst Novorussian leaders continues and there is still no clear leader. Hopefully, the upcoming elections will help to solve this issue.

The Saker

 

[arpakola]

Recommendations for immediate policy actions to address financial crisis in Ukraine
Recommendations for immediate policy actions to address financial crisis in Ukraine

Ukraine's fiscal deficit has become explosive due to the uncertainties created by the external aggression and the resulting weak economic performance.

For 2014, the IMF assesses the actual size of the deficit at 10.1 percent of gross domestic product.

However, the deficit might even become larger, perhaps approaching 15 percetn of GDP if off-budget items are included as the International Monetary Fund estimates the financial deficit of Naftogaz alone this year at 7.6 percent of GDP.

Such a deficit magnitude cannot possibly be closed by raising already-falling tax revenues. Neither can it be closed by non-inflationary financing given the sharp increase in the risk-premium for sovereign debt which is skyrocketing from 40 percent of GDP in 2013 to 68 percent of GDP according to the current base case IMF projection. (well done maidanuts) In more pessimistic scenarios it is even higher, possibly exceeding 100% in the worst-case.

Under a favorable scenario about an early resolution of the conflict in the east, the IMF currently considers the financial position to be sustainable.

However, under the current existential threats to Ukraine, that scenario may not materialize and the present budgetary position will not be financially sustainable. For the sake of national security, Ukraine must cut its public expenditures sharply. This is no longer a matter of finances, but an issue of national survival. Ukraine's aim should be to cut public expenditures by 10 percent of GDP within one year if total default and monetary chaos is to be avoided.

At 53 percent of GDP in public expenditures expected by the IMF in 2014, Ukraine's public expenditures are far too high. That leaves only one alternative to closing the gap; namely extensive budget-cutting. If nothing is done to plan such cuts, they will happen anyway brutally by sequester as eventual lack of revenues to cover expenditures will lead to "forced-closing" in the form of freezing and random cuts. Across-the-board cuts are the worst possible outcome.

Hence we recommended that a strategy of budget-cutting focusing on the least desired public expenditures be developed immediately. Such cuts would also facilitate badly-needed structural reforms, notably energy reforms and subsidy elimination.

Ukraine has no realistic choice but to focus on extensive expenditure cuts.

It is also consistent with Ukraine's medium-term strategy of reducing the size of government to stimulate economic growth.

With its current budget expenditure share of GDP of 53 perent of GDP, Ukraine stands out among comparable countries as having an extremely high government share in the economy. While several countries in Western Europe have similar shares they have a far higher level of economic development.

The best comparable countries appear to be the Baltic countries that have public expenditures of 34-38 percent of GDP. The best standard for Ukraine appears to be Lithuania that has public expenditures of 34 percent of GDP, the highest economic growth in Europe and yet has far better social benefits than Ukraine.

In the current situation, it is both unrealistic and undesirable to raise public expenditures outside of the most pressing military spending.

Instead, the government needs to focus on cutting big and inappropriate public expenditures that can be cut fast.

A number of big items stand out.

The first is energy subsidies that will probably amount to 10 percent of GDP in 2014 according to the latest IMF calculations.

This is totally unjustified as such high subsidies make Ukraine weaker in all regards – more dependent on Russian gas, producing less gas itself, and consuming more gas. Instead the Ukrainian government should eliminate these subsidies as soon as possible by normalizing Ukrainian energy prices while giving the poorest half of the population full cash compensation.

The second big cut should be directed to the old Nomenklatura. Many of their privileges are hidden in the uniquely high public pension expenditures of no less than 18 percent of GDP. Special pensions alone amount to 4 percent of GDP.

The third category of spending that should be checked is public procurement that was the prime boondoggle of the Yanukovych government after energy. With a total public procurement of 10 percent of GDP, half of this amount could be saved if the standard kickback under Yanukovych was 50 percent as is widely reported.

Another area of opportunity for cuts is related to superfluous regulation and bureaucracy. If wisely done, the cuts will fall most heavily on areas where corruption opportunities abound. For example, a substantial percentage of superfluous inspection agencies should be abolished and their cadres laid off.

Finally, many expenditure items comprise subsidies allegedly intended to help low-income population, but are highly inefficient because they are also being provided to those with high incomes. Indeed such subsidies are well-known to have the effect of regressive as opposed to progressive budget policy.

In this way, Ukraine can in one year cut public expenditures of at least one-tenth of GDP without anybody but vested interests suffering. At the same time, one of the benefits would be that the tax-burden-including social taxes – can be reduced considerably with a consequent stimulus to economic activity. The unified social contribution should be cut to 25 percent to encourage the emergence of private business in the official economy.

Reductions of this magnitude will mean positive results in terms of higher economic welfare of the Ukrainian nation, better state finances, greater equity, and higher economic growth.

Authors:
Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, USA;
Anders Aslund, Senior Research Associate, Peterson Institute, Washington, USA;
Kakha Bendukidze, Chairman, Free University, Tbilisi, Georgia;
Oleh Havrylyshyn, Adjunct Professor, George Washington University, Washington, USA;
Basil Kalymon, Professor Emeritus, Ivey Business School, Western University, London, Canada

slava - slava - slava...
=====================

 

[sgarg]

@arpakola, the Oligarchs have to be defeated in Ukraine. If not, then people of Ukraine are going down with the Oligarchs.
Ukraine is a good size country with a relatively small population, a country rich in natural resources. It is a shame that this country chooses to lick West's ass rather than fix its internal problems.

The needless war started by Nazis created by CIA is a sure way to destroy Ukraine.
Russia cannot stand aside. Ukraine is TOO BIG A RISK to Russia. Russia knows that it has to fight, no matter what the situation.

 

[arpakola]

participation in Donbass elections

 

[jouni]

There was no Superpower USA in 1939. The British empire was still alive in 1939.
You forget the role of USA in this crisis.
USSR was ruling a much larger area and population in 1939.
Russia is no comparison. The objectives of 1939 USSR and today's Russia are completely different. The objective of today's Russia is to build an adequate defence against NATO.
I agree that Russia cannot take on NATO. NATO is too big compared to Russia. This is the reason Putin is forced to lean on Russian speakers. Russia is using the same method which West has used repeatedly in other areas of Europe to divide Warsaw pact nations.

Dear sgarg,

You forget few things of the history. Before world war two east European countries of Baltic States, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia were either Parliamentary democraties or parliamentary kingdoms. They had the same government model than the "west" european countries. After WWII Soviet Union changed the goverment system of those countries to Socialist and Communist. When US and UK liberated west european countries of Norway, Denmanrk, France, Holland, Netherlands and Luxembourg, they did not change the goverment system of those countries, they were liberated and regained the system they had before the war.

During 1944-1991 those countries under Soviet rule suffered tremendously and they were actually only "liberated" when Soviet Union collapsed and they could regain their old governmental system they had before WWII. In order to make sure that they would not again be occupied and suffer They all wanted to join NATO which is a defense organization of free democratic countries of Europe.

So Russia's actions in Ukraine are purely aggressive and imperialistic, something that western European countries believed was a thing of the past.