China Economy: News & Discussion

[SexyChineseLady]

Apple gave up on its car. Xiaomi sold out the SU7 within the first day!

 

[SexyChineseLady]

The SU7:

 

[SexyChineseLady]

This is the Huawei Avatr. Like the Xiaomi SU7, it is fully integrated with the company's leading edge smart phones!

 

[rockdog]

Progressing faster than anyone in the West thought possible

China will eventually do to the semicon industry what it did for Solar and EVs:

View attachment 246424

BYD is doing the same thing in what Huawei did in telecom field, with its own IGBT chip facotory.

Its IGBT chips, made chinese chips in auto industry of IGBT, from 0%share to 60%, and the export growth is 200%.

A window raise/down chip, BYD price is $1.0, Texas Instrument is $13.0

A auto balancing sensor, STMicroelectronics is $1300, now they would only sell $13 by competition.

Chinese EV supply chain will also kill lots of competitors.

 

[rockdog]

This is the Huawei Avatr. Like the Xiaomi SU7, it is fully integrated with the company's leading edge smart phones!

This is the car i m testing in my studio, it has amazing design concept.

 

[omaebakabaka]

BYD is doing the same thing in what Huawei did in telecom field, with its own IGBT chip facotory.

Its IGBT chips, made chinese chips in auto industry of IGBT, from 0%share to 60%, and the export growth is 200%.

A window raise/down chip, BYD price is $1.0, Texas Instrument is $13.0

A auto balancing sensor, STMicroelectronics is $1300, now they would only sell $13 by competition.

Chinese EV supply chain will also kill lots of competitors.



View attachment 246441

Boss, met with an old chinese friend that was classmate in US for dinner and he is saying its real ugly in Chinese job market. Not sure about the reality but looks like central bank infusing money to banks via bonds purchase similar to printer friendly US Fed Reserve. Whether this whole EV, Semi and hitech economy transformation works is yet to be seen but otherwise he says China is having somewhat of difficult time with economy right now. West is even worse in my opinion relatively speaking but tahts a different conversation

 

[rockdog]

Boss, met with an old chinese friend that was classmate in US for dinner and he is saying its real ugly in Chinese job market. Not sure about the reality but looks like central bank infusing money to banks via bonds purchase similar to printer friendly US Fed Reserve. Whether this whole EV, Semi and hitech economy transformation works is yet to be seen but otherwise he says China is having somewhat of difficult time with economy right now. West is even worse in my opinion relatively speaking but tahts a different conversation

Well, there is some of my thoughts:

1. 2023 was really tough in China, most business were not good as before, except Auto and Chip industry. But 1st quarter 2024, i personally feeling is much better, me and my friend's companies got more contracts from different sectors compare last year; i expect from Q3 there will be some strong growth.

2. Chinese government as i know didn't make huge stimulating package, printing helicopter money like USA, this is what i admire the CCP, they are cold blooded but very reasonable.

3. Real estate bubble is broken and stable, it's not that bad like Japan's collapsed 1990s, house pricing in major cities downed like 30%, and return to reasonable price. People like my age lost lots of values by owning many houses, but i m happy to see young people no more need to worry about expensive house, they would use more money to consume, like travel, EV, digital gizmos... Which is good in long term.

4. New type export is booming, Vapo, EV, Shein, Temu .. One big thing is exporting "everything" to Russia silently. some of my friends made huge money by selling civil drone parts, night vision equipments to photographer communities there.

5. I thought USA and Canada were doing good last year, since by USD/CAD the GDP is growing faster than China, but when i talked with my friend in Toronto, they said economy in Canada sucks, it's lillte surprised me.

6. Yellen will come to China again, hope the Big2 will work together, at least stopping hurting each other.

Yellen to Visit Senior Leaders in China in April, Politico Says

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China in April to meet with the country’s senior leaders, Politico reported, citing US government officials with knowledge of the trip.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Azaad]

You Indians have been doing that to Chinese products for decades, no?



View attachment 246422

I told you before foolish lady , there was a world before China became the world's pre dominant mfg power in the world & sure enough there will be a world after China has long ceased being the mfg power in the world.

The only people who truly believe China will be a mfg power forever aren't even the CCP , it's the Gaokao fall Wumaos like you .

 

[omaebakabaka]

Well, there is some of my thoughts:

1. 2023 was really tough in China, most business were not good as before, except Auto and Chip industry. But 1st quarter 2024, i personally feeling is much better, me and my friend's companies got more contracts from different sectors compare last year; i expect from Q3 there will be some strong growth.

2. Chinese government as i know didn't make huge stimulating package, printing helicopter money like USA, this is what i admire the CCP, they are cold blooded but very reasonable.

3. Real estate bubble is broken and stable, it's not that bad like Japan's collapsed 1990s, house pricing in major cities downed like 30%, and return to reasonable price. People like my age lost lots of values by owning many houses, but i m happy to see young people no more need to worry about expensive house, they would use more money to consume, like travel, EV, digital gizmos... Which is good in long term.

4. New type export is booming, Vapo, EV, Shein, Temu .. One big thing is exporting "everything" to Russia silently. some of my friends made huge money by selling civil drone parts, night vision equipments to photographer communities there.

5. I thought USA and Canada were doing good last year, since by USD/CAD the GDP is growing faster than China, but when i talked with my friend in Toronto, they said economy in Canada sucks, it's lillte surprised me.

6. Yellen will come to China again, hope the Big2 will work together, at least stopping hurting each other.

Yellen to Visit Senior Leaders in China in April, Politico Says

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China in April to meet with the country’s senior leaders, Politico reported, citing US government officials with knowledge of the trip.

www.bloomberg.com

Well, 30% down is still possibly inflated for most young generations but this is factor all across the world with young generations more likely to be in debt and bad politics around that taking over with politicians capitalizing on it. More true in democratic and pseudo democrap countries. With automation, EV industry is unlikely to employ that many people, so where does the employment come from out of these new sectores with more labor intense ones moving to vietnam, indonesia and even India to some extent.

Economy in west is even more troublesome with heli money floating around, inflation super high and only show is stock market as hosing has been unaffordable for a while now.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Well, there is some of my thoughts:

1. 2023 was really tough in China, most business were not good as before, except Auto and Chip industry. But 1st quarter 2024, i personally feeling is much better, me and my friend's companies got more contracts from different sectors compare last year; i expect from Q3 there will be some strong growth.

2. Chinese government as i know didn't make huge stimulating package, printing helicopter money like USA, this is what i admire the CCP, they are cold blooded but very reasonable.

3. Real estate bubble is broken and stable, it's not that bad like Japan's collapsed 1990s, house pricing in major cities downed like 30%, and return to reasonable price. People like my age lost lots of values by owning many houses, but i m happy to see young people no more need to worry about expensive house, they would use more money to consume, like travel, EV, digital gizmos... Which is good in long term.

4. New type export is booming, Vapo, EV, Shein, Temu .. One big thing is exporting "everything" to Russia silently. some of my friends made huge money by selling civil drone parts, night vision equipments to photographer communities there.

5. I thought USA and Canada were doing good last year, since by USD/CAD the GDP is growing faster than China, but when i talked with my friend in Toronto, they said economy in Canada sucks, it's lillte surprised me.

6. Yellen will come to China again, hope the Big2 will work together, at least stopping hurting each other.

Yellen to Visit Senior Leaders in China in April, Politico Says

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China in April to meet with the country’s senior leaders, Politico reported, citing US government officials with knowledge of the trip.

www.bloomberg.com

China is going through a big transition. It is going from a realestate led economy to a tech led one. There will be always be a tough period in any transition.

The mass job layoffs in SOEs in China during the late 1990s before the entry into the WTO was even worse. That was what prompted Gordon Chang and others to write about the "Coming Collapse of China" in 2000.

A similar transition is happening. Remember, China became a manufacturing and consumption power when it was actually led by real estate. Imagine manufacturing and comsumption when China actually concentrates on new technology instead of real estate

The infrastructure in place for this transition is even better than the one in 2000 just before WTO.

China had no companies like BYD, Huawei, COMAC, SMIC, etc. to help make that transition in 2000

 

[SexyChineseLady]

China's great ambassador! East/SE Asia is heavily connected despite the West trying rile up divisions

 

[omaebakabaka]

China is going through a big transition. It is going from a realestate led economy to a tech led one. There will be always be a tough period in any transition.

The mass job layoffs in SOEs in China during the late 1990s before the entry into the WTO was even worse. That was what prompted Gordon Chang and others to write about the "Coming Collapse of China" in 2000.

A similar transition is happening. Remember, China became a manufacturing and consumption power when it was actually led by real estate. Imagine manufacturing and comsumption when China actually concentrates on new technology instead of real estate

The infrastructure in place for this transition is even better than the one in 2000 just before WTO.

China had no companies like BYD, Huawei, COMAC, SMIC, etc. to help make that transition in 2000

I think China won't be able to sustain this but it won't be a collapse either....it will become like Japan catching up to advanced economies at best but not the dragon that it was till recently with manufacturing and perception wise. World situation is not the same anymore, markets for tech is not same as physical goods. Big markets like US, India won't be open for long as India gains its own manufacturing and tech. EV's are fad at worst and easy to replicate than IC autos by other countries and not a big employer. As rockdog said, Russian market was a saver for China but in 5 to 10 years Russia is going to be even more self sufficient with the way they are going.

I think real estate burst was the right thing China did unlike west which keeps popping up all sorts of bubbles with heli money....which they can do only for so long with world changing. It's not all bad for China either as it wil stabilize but it wont be that perceived dragon either in future. This is how it is supposed to be....stable, competent presence is all a country needs, not the golaith of the world. Long term, if India resolves social nonsense and upgrades basic society with indigenous thinking, we have better odds in my opinion.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

I think China won't be able to sustain this but it won't be a collapse either....it will become like Japan catching up to advanced economies at best but not the dragon that it was till recently with manufacturing and perception wise. World situation is not the same anymore, markets for tech is not same as physical goods. Big markets like US, India won't be open for long as India gains its own manufacturing and tech. EV's are fad at worst and easy to replicate than IC autos by other countries and not a big employer. As rockdog said, Russian market was a saver for China but in 5 to 10 years Russia is going to be even more self sufficient with the way they are going.

I think real estate burst was the right thing China did unlike west which keeps popping up all sorts of bubbles with heli money....which they can do only for so long with world changing. It's not all bad for China either as it wil stabilize but it wont be that perceived dragon either in future. This is how it is supposed to be....stable, competent presence is all a country needs, not the golaith of the world. Long term, if India resolves social nonsense and upgrades basic society with indigenous thinking, we have better odds in my opinion.

A China that can provide 100% of its own cars, aircraft and chips will have to grow many times bigger than it is today without worrying about exports. Exports are a great extra stream of revenue but were never the core. Even the Westerners (and Indians) who are most anti-China knew this by focusing on the RE sector as a sign of China's collapse. Internal investments like real estate were always the biggest driver of Chinese growth not exports.

That is not to say that exports didn't help. Of course they did. But they were really just the extra percentage points on top that added to the high growth that was driven mainly by infrastructure investment in the 2000s.

The new China will be driven by new technology built for domestic consumption. The EVs, Solar, chips, etc. are mainly consumed in China with exports as a side benefit of economy of scale.

But you are absolutely right the world has changed. What China did by growing in double digits (10 to 14%) in the globalizing world during the 2000s cannot happen again today for another country in a de-globalizing world today.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Chuang Asia: pop culture economy across Asia!

Duna is South Korean, Wang Ke is Chinese:

Many Thais in top 9 for one of the premier CPOP survival shows (top 9 will be formed into pan-Asian Girl Group!)

 

[omaebakabaka]

A China that can provide 100% of its own cars, aircraft and chips will have to grow many times bigger than it is today without worrying about exports. Exports are a great extra stream of revenue but were never the core. Even the Westerners (and Indians) who are most anti-China knew this by focusing on the RE sector as a sign of China's collapse. Internal investments like real estate were always the biggest driver of Chinese growth not exports.

That is not to say that exports didn't help. Of course they did. But they were really just the extra percentage points on top that added to the high growth that was driven mainly by infrastructure investment in the 2000s.

The new China will be driven by new technology built for domestic consumption. The EVs, Solar, chips, etc. are mainly consumed in China with exports as a side benefit of economy of scale.

But you are absolutely right the world has changed. What China did by growing in double digits (10 to 14%) in the globalizing world during the 2000s cannot happen again today for another country in a de-globalizing world today.

What I mentioned is the optimistic path for China, there are less favourable but very possible scenarios that could play out too in the current dynamics but odds are it will settle at some average level as without allies and no good relations with most major powers outside west, it's golden era is at its peak already. You are wrong about exports, it is exactly this projection that needs to be sustained to stay relevant. Chinese so far can't seem to sustain their brands and unable to play the game even to the extent USSR did with its name brands like mig and sukhoi, huwei is pushed out which is the most powerful brand before even it took hold. China can't seem to have the muscle to fight back.

India will see easily 10 to 15% growth if manufacturing takes hold, without it it may be around 5 to 7% at best

 

[omaebakabaka]

Chuang Asia: pop culture economy across Asia!

View attachment 246458
View attachment 246459
View attachment 246460
View attachment 246461

Duna is South Korean, Wang Ke is Chinese:
View attachment 246462

Many Thais in top 9 for one of the premier CPOP survival shows (top 9 will be formed into pan-Asian Girl Group!)
View attachment 246463
View attachment 246464

Sure, economy of 0.8 to 1 per woman...good for these countries as they dry out.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

A non-Western perspective (Korean) on China today and its steady march towards quality and the high end market

[만물상] 잠에서 깬 ‘하이엔드 중국’

만물상 잠에서 깬 하이엔드 중국

www.chosun.com

Google-translated below:

For thousands of years, China has engaged in the tribute trade, receiving tribute and giving gifts from foreign countries. One of the forces that maintained the tribute system was high-end (highest quality) products made in China. Neighboring countries were able to access the best products of the time, such as ceramics, paper, silk, medicine, and scientific instruments, only through tribute. The reason the Joseon Dynasty ignored the Ming Dynasty's request to pay tribute only once every three years and sent tribute envoys several times a year was because of its thirst for high-quality goods.

In the 17th century, European royal and noble houses had a separate room called the ‘China Room’. It was a place where Chinese crafts such as Chinese ceramics, lacquered furniture, and silk were separately collected. The size of the China Room was considered a measure of wealth. China, a technologically advanced country that invented printing, gunpowder, and the compass, lagged behind Europe after the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. Chinese porcelain was replaced by British bone china, and silk was replaced by Indian cotton.

After the Communist Revolution, China advocated reform and openness and began industrialization, but Chinese manufactured products remained cheap and counterfeit for decades. Then, after 2010, products with high performance compared to price were introduced, focusing on small home appliances such as MP3 players, earphones, and mobile phone batteries, and a new term, 'Continent's Mistake', emerged. Since then, along with the rise of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), aerospace, and quantum computers, the area of 'continental mistakes' has been expanding day by day.

These days, high-tech robot vacuum cleaners made in China have become a must-have item among housewives in Gangnam, Seoul. It not only sucks up dust, but also cleans with a wet mop, and after cleaning, it takes care of everything, including washing and drying the mop. Even though the price exceeds 1.5 million won, the market share reaches 80%. China's Haier, which was synonymous with cheap home appliances, transformed into a luxury goods company after acquiring GE's home appliance business in 2016. Haier's wine refrigerators have captured 60% of the U.S. market due to their high quality and best cost-effectiveness. These days, Chinese mobile phone companies are pushing out Apple with cutting-edge products equipped with German Leica cameras and AI functions.

Three years after Xiaomi, the originator of the 'Continental Mistake', announced its entry into electric vehicles, it released an electric car with amazing specifications. The Xiaomi SU7, which resembles the Porsche Taycan, reaches 100 km/h in 2.78 seconds with 664 horsepower. It boasts a top speed of 265 km and runs 800 km on a single charge. Elon Musk, who 10 years ago mocked “Chinese electric cars are Fuji,” recently warned, “If Chinese electric cars are imported, almost all American car manufacturers will go out of business.” The momentum of ‘high-end China’ waking up from its slumber is scary.

 

[srevster]

Well, there is some of my thoughts:

1. 2023 was really tough in China, most business were not good as before, except Auto and Chip industry. But 1st quarter 2024, i personally feeling is much better, me and my friend's companies got more contracts from different sectors compare last year; i expect from Q3 there will be some strong growth.

2. Chinese government as i know didn't make huge stimulating package, printing helicopter money like USA, this is what i admire the CCP, they are cold blooded but very reasonable.

3. Real estate bubble is broken and stable, it's not that bad like Japan's collapsed 1990s, house pricing in major cities downed like 30%, and return to reasonable price. People like my age lost lots of values by owning many houses, but i m happy to see young people no more need to worry about expensive house, they would use more money to consume, like travel, EV, digital gizmos... Which is good in long term.

4. New type export is booming, Vapo, EV, Shein, Temu .. One big thing is exporting "everything" to Russia silently. some of my friends made huge money by selling civil drone parts, night vision equipments to photographer communities there.

5. I thought USA and Canada were doing good last year, since by USD/CAD the GDP is growing faster than China, but when i talked with my friend in Toronto, they said economy in Canada sucks, it's lillte surprised me.

6. Yellen will come to China again, hope the Big2 will work together, at least stopping hurting each other.

Yellen to Visit Senior Leaders in China in April, Politico Says

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China in April to meet with the country’s senior leaders, Politico reported, citing US government officials with knowledge of the trip.

www.bloomberg.com

All great anecdotal data. How will your economy grow with 50 million less population in 20 years.

not just you but all developed economies except USA have this problem.

your domestic population is shrinking and your customer base abroad is also shrinking as people entire retirement age there as well.

the math doesn’t add up. Consumption worldwide will decrease and export based economies will stagnate. China is an export based economy with a shrinking domestic population.

 

[srevster]

India is a consumption economy and has a growing population. India’s growth will be sustainable long term if it keeps focus on quality of life and protects the TFR rates. Decrease in TFR rates is directly correlated to reduction in quality of life. The more stress the parents experience and the more unaffordable things become; parents are less likely to have kids, especially in situations where both parents have to work to keep the lights on.

 

[Heat]

You know your economy has shit the bed when you start using reality tv shows as an economic barometer.

This thread just keeps delivering gems after gems.