0 chance MK.2 is inducted by 2030 or AMCA by 2032 (AMCA MK.2 maybe not even by 2040 now)
IAF/MoD/import played their hand and have kept the focus on MRFA and other foreign toys whilst the fighter fleet depleted. Even now there’s no interest in more MK1As or fast tracking the MK.2, MRFA is the only solution out of CAS’s mouth
Defence minister seems utterly disinterested or oblivious to the games and is letting things work out at a natural pace
it’s very hard to identify which is the best performing service, all 3 have the same import addition couples with procurement paralysis (unless it’s ‘emergency procurement’ times)
IAF haven’t even got plans to get more tankers or decent numbers of AEW by 2030, forget about COMJAM/ISTAR
God knows where all the money is going. In the next 18 months they will have paid off the Rafales and S400
While money is always an issue , I really don't think it has much of a part to play here . Nor am I inclined to believe that Jane's report but in the absence of any credible explanation there seems no other recourse , however fantastic & illogical that report may sound.
The MRFA saga is an old one with its roots in the Mirage 2000 procurement & local mfg after ToT which was jeopardized thanks to Soviet intervention who being alarmed India was moving outside its orbit with the Jaguar deal , the Mirage 2000 deal & IGs visit to Washington requesting US technical support & collaboration in the then nascent LCA project wherein Reagan acquiesced to Indian demands of supply of the GE -404 TF , training of Indian aeronautical engineers & scientists on the FCL apart from other aspects of designing , sweetened the deal offering MiG-29 , the offer to send an Indian cosmonaut to space , lease an SSN & help India with it's N submarine program especially designing of the miniature N PWR to power the submarine .
From there the next opportunity arose after the Kargil war where impressed with the performance of the Mirage 2000 , IAF leaned on the MoD / GoI to revive the previous proposal of mfg it locally with ToT from Dassault. The coffingate scam gave George Fernandes the then Raksha Mantri cold feet & he refused to consider a single tender situation advising the IAF to go in for a tender which is how the MMRCA 1.0 was born . Dassault advised against opting for the Mirage 2000 offering the Rafales instead. The rest of this tragicomic story is known. Hence for one reason or another the MRFA has been postponed / stagnated for the past 4 decades.
The latest spat was between the late CDS Gen Rawat & the IAF where in the CDS was of the opinion that IAF ought to consider the tranche mode of acquisition instead of relying on tendering the entire requirement a la the Su-30 MKI program thus avoiding blocking a huge chunk of defence funds thereby choking up the modernisation / acquisition / CAPEX of all the other armed forces. The IAF being once bitten twice shy refused to consider any such arrangement which speaks volumes about the trust levels between the air arm & the combined defence command structure as well as the MoD .
That should logically explain why the IAF chose not to exercise their options for the 2nd tranche of 36 nos Rafales for which the ISE & bases had been paid for. What can't logically be explained is what was Vayu Bhavan doing from 2016 when the IGA between India & France was signed for the emergency purchase of 36 Rafales & the MMRCA 1.0 was officially scrapped to Dec 2021 when they finally woke up from their slumber going public with why the MRFA was critical to the IAF's modernization plan promising to come out with the RFP ASAP. It's been more than 1.5 yrs now. One's unable to understand the inordinate amount of time required to release the tender which is practically a replica of the MMRCA 1.0 tender document. What exactly is new about the MRFA where except for the F-15 variant & withdrawal of the F/A-18 variant all the other participants are the same ?
Finally to conclude , I think the financial settlement for the purchase of Rafales may have accomplished in 2021-22 itself when we received possession of the full tranche of Rafales. Perhaps the only component pending is towards the ISE which is being undertaken at BRD out here. We haven't yet received the full tranche of the S-400 & by the looks of it is going to be interminably delayed thanks to Russia diverting our purchases to fulfill their requirements in Ukraine . This also includes our T-90s sent to Russia for upgradation / modernization.
The other requirements of the IAF cited aren't going thru or we don't see any kind of news on it in the public domain yet the MTA requirement has resulted in an RFI & we've gone in for replacements for the AVROs with the C-295. All this & whenever we retire a squadron or an FA crashes , the same breast beating in the media by the usual suspects including the IAF commences about falling squadrons & flying obsolete FAs .
Talk about the priorities of the IAF.
