Indian nuclear attack on Rawalpindi

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The analysis on this page does not mention if its Uranium or Plutonium in particular, though Plutonium based nukes will have more impact and we can gauge it from further reading:

http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/technical4.asp
http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/technical2.asp

Keeping in mind that Plutonium based nukes are what everyone is into, we can say this research could be based on PU-239.
MaoMao when the bomb was dropped on Hiroshima intially 69,000 people died but the total death toll later went up over 700,000. There are many things that you have to consider along with the use of nuclear weapons:

1) shock wave that will devastate for many more miles

2) EMP wave- that will knock out electricity for hundreds possibly more miles around

3) Radiation that will poison everything and linger for centuries


http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2009/how-i-learnt-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-bomb/
http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/...m/time/magazine/article/0,9171,841540,00.html
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,841540,00.html
 
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I can't say anything about 250 Kiloton capacity, however, we even have thermonuclear devices with 40 Kiloton plus yield...If you read carefully I have talked about number of nukes not the category of the nukes, even then its not enough for a two front war!
This is why we are working on MIRV'ing warheads.
 

Yusuf

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@yusuf
generals in pak are no fools..they must be knowing what and where america can monitor and access(if they really can) and will take counter measure too. So in an emergency nothing can prevent them from using it. no country will give it's nuke button to another countrys control.
All pak nukes are in component form. That is various elements of the bomb are separately stored. Its the same for india as well as china. Pakistan as much as give the order to assemble will go via american ears.
 

Tshering22

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Guys the pak nukes falling into the hands of Taliban is a good propaganda tool to keep pressure up on pakistan. I have reliably learned that all pak nukes are under twin watch of US and China and both will not want Pak to use it. Chinas sole aim to supply nukes to pak was to keep india under pressure. I really doubt they would want Pak to ever use it.
Its not just for propaganda (which is Indian perspective) but a reality that is soon coming closer to happening. I might sound like a paranoid American but being Indians, we have all the more reason to be worried since we're right next door and since Pakistani military and ISI already are in bed with Taliban, it is almost impossible to make out who will come forward with the weapon. Pak has been known for its lies as a nuclear strike or even a chemical or biological strike is possible by terrorists to weaken a city through diseases and injuries. Our response to any NBC attack is standard: nuclear response. This means that Pakistan is likely to say that "hey look we tried to stop them, but they got out of control". What'd be the use since damage would be already done? Hence we must up the ante by force-feeding NATO's paranoia of Jihad as well as Russia's own concern of radical jihadists from Chechnya accessing such sensitive weapons in a possibly-loose environment in Pakistan.

If you think that Chinese or Americans care so much about us, you're wrong. They never would bother. A nuke (goodness forbid) strike on any city of ours from Pakistan is on the other hand, good for them as it will show an alarmed India according to Chinese strategic analysis. And even if Pakistan is annihilated in our retaliation, it would still do little damage to China (except a couple of billions that it has infrastructurally invested in Pakistan and POK).

During Kargil the Americans caught pak thought itself in the bud let alone ready its arsenal. That is the hold the US has and more so now.
Clinton wanted to increase engagement with India and also since media covered this war more extensively US had no place to turn a deaf ear to as whole world expected a response; especially after George Fernandes threatened Pakistan's existence saying that it would be erased "5 times and over" in response to Musharaf's tacit nuclear threat. Clinton knew that India then being under a right-wing nationalist NDA government would not hesitate to exterminate Pakistan and US would be in no condition to save its pet dog this time (How I miss NDA's assertive ferocity that silenced both our neighbours :)). Hence, by scolding them into silence and withdrawal, he only saved Pakistan's existence. Not a favour to us but a lease of life for them.


Personally Pakistans nuke doctrine is as ambiguous as it can get. They can change their goal post any time. Perhaps to keep india honest. But I also feel that it is a bluff in the end. They will never use their nukes in a war with india. Its a matter of time when someone here calls the bluff.
If this was 70s or even 80s, I would have agreed with you. But now distinguishing who's who from that "they" is very difficult as terrorists and Pak military can be used alternatively in our case. One blesses the other with tools and the other does it. So it is not so easy to sit back on the armchair and be convinced. Remember that Pakistan was more pro-Western and still its military had some Western modern thinking despite its underlying Jihadist mentality during cold war. But now it is overtly Talibanized and day by day, Pakistani civilians are getting infected with this bug of violence and terrorism; making only more soldiers for terrorists to use against us. And since they won't be able to conventionally withstand against us, "nuking the Kuffar" will be the first thing in the minds of Taliban mullas.
 

maomao

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MaoMao when the bomb was dropped on Hiroshima intially 69,000 people died but the total death toll later went up over 700,000. There are many things that you have to consider along with the use of nuclear weapons:

1) shock wave that will devastate for many more miles

2) EMP wave- that will knock out electricity for hundreds possibly more miles around

3) Radiation that will poison everything and linger for centuries


http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2009/how-i-learnt-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-bomb/
http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/...m/time/magazine/article/0,9171,841540,00.html
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,841540,00.html
You are absolutely correct, I never disputed these facts, if you read the analysis carefully is clearly mentions all the above facts and what I had mentioned was the zone of heavy destruction not outside what happens. Radiation aftermath, burns injuries, logistical and medical shortcomings will kill more people than direct impact!
 

Yusuf

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Tshering there are no hot nukes in the subcontinent. Its all separated in component form. Each component has its security measure, how will the terrorists manage to steal all components and even if they do, who will assemble the bomb?
 

Tshering22

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^^ How about all this being done by ISI itself and just "let loose" for their comrades in rags to do the rest? No one could imagine Pakistan would be going down like this and still it is going down in this way today, isn't it? So when it comes to them, nothing is impossible at all.
 

Iamanidiot

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Iam passionate about nuking Pakistani sewage and gutters not the townhalls or army head quarters in rawlpindi or karachi
 

Agnostic_Indian

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All pak nukes are in component form. That is various elements of the bomb are separately stored. Its the same for india as well as china. Pakistan as much as give the order to assemble will go via american ears.
a nuk use will come only after a long conventional war so when the war starts pak naturaly will assemble nuks..america may or may not get a clue..even if they come to know they cannot stop pak because at that time no pressure will work..it is a prestige issue and a do or die situation. America don't have enough force presence inside pakistan to stop pak army.
what america can do is apply pressure on both parties to end war, talk an agreement , hope for best..It may or may not succeed.
 

neo29

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Many topics ranging from Indian nukes, Pakistan nukes, Nuke intensity, Hiroshima, Pakistan nuke control etc are being discussed here. Its time the thread is renamed to Nuclear weapons and its consequences in South Asia.
 

The Messiah

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It is time we did research on how to stop pak nuking us....there nuke should never reach Indian city.
 

sayareakd

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It is time we did research on how to stop pak nuking us....there nuke should never reach Indian city.
DRDO and Indian forces are working for this prior to 1999 after that it intensified result it PAD and AAD not to forget we went to Russia for S300 and even Israel for Arrow, after we failed to find anything suitable for our need PAD and AAD born, in future as you already know AD-1 and AD-2 are planned.
 

Agnostic_Indian

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It is time we did research on how to stop pak nuking us....there nuke should never reach Indian city.
Invest on BMD...
may be even two systems at a time our own 3 layer system and may be we can buy some russian or isreali system too.
 

SHASH2K2

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a nuk use will come only after a long conventional war so when the war starts pak naturaly will assemble nuks..america may or may not get a clue..even if they come to know they cannot stop pak because at that time no pressure will work..it is a prestige issue and a do or die situation. America don't have enough force presence inside pakistan to stop pak army.
what america can do is apply pressure on both parties to end war, talk an agreement , hope for best..It may or may not succeed.
Pakistan knows that they cannot match us in conventional arms and will be overpowered within days. Any fanatic there will resort to use of nukes much quicker than we expect. Rules of normal engagement donot apply to Pakistan or any terrorists state.
 

The Messiah

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Pakistan knows that they cannot match us in conventional arms and will be overpowered within days. Any fanatic there will resort to use of nukes much quicker than we expect. Rules of normal engagement donot apply to Pakistan or any terrorists state.
thats why we must build iron curtain (literally!) along pak border. we must have worlds best air defense where not a single pak aircraft or missile can get through.

cost is irrelevant.
 

Agnostic_Indian

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Pakistan knows that they cannot match us in conventional arms and will be overpowered within days. Any fanatic there will resort to use of nukes much quicker than we expect. Rules of normal engagement donot apply to Pakistan or any terrorists state.
in a war india will try make it a swift and limited one..pak may have to use it's full strength to match india. We surely cannot over power pakistan with in days for sure..and unless we get a big upper hand or capture vast area deep inside pak, they will not use nuke.
 

Tshering22

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^^ You're forgetting that they have a FIRST USE POLICY which means that there's no limit to when and where they will start attacking using nukes. The first target will be as declared earlier Mumbai, Hyderabad, Delhi and Bangalore since they are powerhouses that fuel the country's development and financial might. So naturally these countries along with Delhi have to be fortified with ABM systems. If Pradyumna (PAD and AAD combined) ABM system is not ready in another 4 years, we should continue testing but get S-500 alongside to arm all the technological and financial powerhouses in the country first. Russia even offered us joint partnership in the programme but our stupid government declined it.

They lack in MIRV capabilities unlike the UNSC P-5 that means their warheads will be single and therefore it is relatively easier to intercept them. And nuclear is not the only threat that we face it can be the other two of NBC classified threats as well. Pakistan is one of the few countries that have refused to sign treaties that prohibit manufacturing of Chemical and biological weapons meaning that as a warning to nuclear strike, Pakistan might hand out BC weapons to terrorists and show as if terrorists and "non state actors" have used the weapons "taking advantage of war". In such a case, our policy should be:

1) Any BC attack by terrorists in any city: Nuke strike PK
2) Any conventional mass planned terrorist attack in multiple cities (like multiple 26/11s at once) (during war that is): nuke strike PK

The aim would be to tell the world that if any of these 2 happens and attack comes from Pak territory, we won't hold back so that the "world community" takes the headache of pressuring Pakistan to reign in.

For that once again, we need a fierce Defence Minister like George Fernandes was and a PM like Vajpayee rather than an alien (Sonia Gandhi) and her lackey Manmohan not-so-Singh who's better off designing economic policies of the country than considering a nuclear attack.
 

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