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Terms Of Re-engagement
To turn a metaphor around, what can't be endured must be cured. Trust is the key curative ingredient in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's nuanced strategy of structured re-engagement with Pakistan. And yet the meetings between home minister P Chidambaram and external affairs minister S M Krishna with their Pakistani counterparts on June 26 and July 15 respectively mark a fundamental shift in the balance of diplomatic power between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan's decades-long attempt to acquire parity with India is over. Despite the Pakistani army's braggadocio, its deployment of over 1,00,000 troops in the recently renamed Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa region (formerly known as the North West Frontier Province) has significantly weakened both its fighting capabilities on the LoC and its morale. The economic disparity between the two countries is growing. India's GDP is now nearly 10 times Pakistan's. Power shortages are crippling industry and everyday life in Pakistan. The entire country generates a mere 11,800 MW of electricity per day on average (Maharashtra alone generates more) and faces a daily shortfall of nearly 4,000 MW.
While the inevitably long drawn out appeal process against the death sentence given to Mohammed Ajmal Kasab will continue to cause public disquiet in India, the arrest of failed New York bomber Faisal Shahzad has seriously weakened Pakistan's ability to run with the Taliban hares and hunt with the American hounds. Washington has woken up.
The prime minister's strategy of re-engaging Pakistan couldn't be better timed for three other reasons. One, the eighteenth constitutional amendment has given Pakistan's National Assembly greater parliamentary power than it has had since the time of Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the early 1970s. General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani may still be the power behind the throne but on the throne sits a significantly empowered prime minister.
Two, ISI-created terror groups in north Waziristan led by Sirajuddin Haqqani are being relentlessly pursued by the US following the interrogation of Shahzad. Washington is forcing Islamabad to dismember Pakistan's "strategic terror assets" designed by Rawalpindi GHQ to remote control a Talibanised Afghanistan after the Americans leave. That strategy now lies in tatters.
Three, India's conventional military strength is being quietly burnished. The Indian navy has already commissioned an advanced stealth ship (INS Shivalik) and two more stealths (INS Satpura and INS Sahyadri) are expected to enter service next year. The navy has begun a two-year sea trial of INS Arihant, its first indigenously built ATV nuclear submarine, and will have a fleet of six by 2020. A nuclear-tipped supersonic cruise missile, BrahMos, is under classified development and will join the Agni-III whose range is 5,000 km. The navy's aircraft carrier (INS Vikramaditya) and nuclear submarines, supplemented by land-based and air-fired missiles, form a deadly triad of offensive military capability.
The prime minister is a pacifist but knows that to win the peace you must first possess the means to win a war. He now has those means and they immeasurably strengthen his negotiating position. But while talks with Pakistan are necessary, they must serve one clear purpose: a permanent end to state-sponsored terrorism by Pakistan. From this will emerge a modus vivendi on Kashmir and water, closer economic cooperation, stronger trade ties, easier travel and more people-to-people contact.
The Indian home minister's mandate at the SAARC home ministers' summit beginning in Islamabad on June 26 is to carry the prime minister's dual strategy forward. The first part of that strategy is to narrow the trust deficit with Pakistan's civilian government through purposeful re-engagement between the two countries' home and foreign ministers. The second part of the strategy is to assess whether the Pakistani army's adversarial mindset has changed significantly.
The influence of General Kayani, whose tenure ends on November 29 and may not be extended, is waning as Pakistani civil society, a reinvigorated judiciary and the democratically elected government reassert themselves. Washington no longer trusts him, especially after Shahzad's handlers were traced back to the ISI. New economic and geopolitical realities have shrunk the ambitions of even the hawks within the ISI who have long made a profitable living out of Pakistan's adversarial relationship with India.
Chidambaram's iron fist may be clothed in velvet as he meets Pakistan's leaders in Islamabad this weekend but he will leave them in no doubt about India's intent: peace is a prize to be won for the entire subcontinent. It is a prize necessary for India to pursue its expanding global agenda without being distracted by a renegade neighbour. And it is necessary for Pakistan so that it can extricate itself from decades of misguided military adventurism and state-sponsored terrorism that have cost so many innocent lives.
Talking to, and trusting, Pakistan is vital for long-term peace in the subcontinent. But peace, like any other prize worth winning, carries collateral obligations. It is, for instance, the constitutional obligation of a government to protect its citizens and, in the event of a terrorist attack against them, bring the perpetrators to book. The prime minister, as his government re-engages Pakistan across a raft of issues, must honour that principal obligation by ensuring that terrorists like Hafiz Saeed and Dawood Ibrahim are brought swiftly to justice.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...erms-Of-Re-engagement/articleshow/6079660.cms
To turn a metaphor around, what can't be endured must be cured. Trust is the key curative ingredient in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's nuanced strategy of structured re-engagement with Pakistan. And yet the meetings between home minister P Chidambaram and external affairs minister S M Krishna with their Pakistani counterparts on June 26 and July 15 respectively mark a fundamental shift in the balance of diplomatic power between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan's decades-long attempt to acquire parity with India is over. Despite the Pakistani army's braggadocio, its deployment of over 1,00,000 troops in the recently renamed Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa region (formerly known as the North West Frontier Province) has significantly weakened both its fighting capabilities on the LoC and its morale. The economic disparity between the two countries is growing. India's GDP is now nearly 10 times Pakistan's. Power shortages are crippling industry and everyday life in Pakistan. The entire country generates a mere 11,800 MW of electricity per day on average (Maharashtra alone generates more) and faces a daily shortfall of nearly 4,000 MW.
While the inevitably long drawn out appeal process against the death sentence given to Mohammed Ajmal Kasab will continue to cause public disquiet in India, the arrest of failed New York bomber Faisal Shahzad has seriously weakened Pakistan's ability to run with the Taliban hares and hunt with the American hounds. Washington has woken up.
The prime minister's strategy of re-engaging Pakistan couldn't be better timed for three other reasons. One, the eighteenth constitutional amendment has given Pakistan's National Assembly greater parliamentary power than it has had since the time of Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the early 1970s. General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani may still be the power behind the throne but on the throne sits a significantly empowered prime minister.
Two, ISI-created terror groups in north Waziristan led by Sirajuddin Haqqani are being relentlessly pursued by the US following the interrogation of Shahzad. Washington is forcing Islamabad to dismember Pakistan's "strategic terror assets" designed by Rawalpindi GHQ to remote control a Talibanised Afghanistan after the Americans leave. That strategy now lies in tatters.
Three, India's conventional military strength is being quietly burnished. The Indian navy has already commissioned an advanced stealth ship (INS Shivalik) and two more stealths (INS Satpura and INS Sahyadri) are expected to enter service next year. The navy has begun a two-year sea trial of INS Arihant, its first indigenously built ATV nuclear submarine, and will have a fleet of six by 2020. A nuclear-tipped supersonic cruise missile, BrahMos, is under classified development and will join the Agni-III whose range is 5,000 km. The navy's aircraft carrier (INS Vikramaditya) and nuclear submarines, supplemented by land-based and air-fired missiles, form a deadly triad of offensive military capability.
The prime minister is a pacifist but knows that to win the peace you must first possess the means to win a war. He now has those means and they immeasurably strengthen his negotiating position. But while talks with Pakistan are necessary, they must serve one clear purpose: a permanent end to state-sponsored terrorism by Pakistan. From this will emerge a modus vivendi on Kashmir and water, closer economic cooperation, stronger trade ties, easier travel and more people-to-people contact.
The Indian home minister's mandate at the SAARC home ministers' summit beginning in Islamabad on June 26 is to carry the prime minister's dual strategy forward. The first part of that strategy is to narrow the trust deficit with Pakistan's civilian government through purposeful re-engagement between the two countries' home and foreign ministers. The second part of the strategy is to assess whether the Pakistani army's adversarial mindset has changed significantly.
The influence of General Kayani, whose tenure ends on November 29 and may not be extended, is waning as Pakistani civil society, a reinvigorated judiciary and the democratically elected government reassert themselves. Washington no longer trusts him, especially after Shahzad's handlers were traced back to the ISI. New economic and geopolitical realities have shrunk the ambitions of even the hawks within the ISI who have long made a profitable living out of Pakistan's adversarial relationship with India.
Chidambaram's iron fist may be clothed in velvet as he meets Pakistan's leaders in Islamabad this weekend but he will leave them in no doubt about India's intent: peace is a prize to be won for the entire subcontinent. It is a prize necessary for India to pursue its expanding global agenda without being distracted by a renegade neighbour. And it is necessary for Pakistan so that it can extricate itself from decades of misguided military adventurism and state-sponsored terrorism that have cost so many innocent lives.
Talking to, and trusting, Pakistan is vital for long-term peace in the subcontinent. But peace, like any other prize worth winning, carries collateral obligations. It is, for instance, the constitutional obligation of a government to protect its citizens and, in the event of a terrorist attack against them, bring the perpetrators to book. The prime minister, as his government re-engages Pakistan across a raft of issues, must honour that principal obligation by ensuring that terrorists like Hafiz Saeed and Dawood Ibrahim are brought swiftly to justice.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...erms-Of-Re-engagement/articleshow/6079660.cms