Chinese contingency plan if North Korean regime collapses leaked

Discussion in 'China' started by Ray, May 6, 2014.

  1. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Chinese contingency plan if North Korean regime collapses leaked

    Chinese contingency plans of action following the hypothetical collapse of North Korea's Communist regime have reportedly been leaked to the Japanese media, offering an intriguing look at how Pyongyang's staunchest ally would respond to such a cataclysmic event.

    The Daily Telegraph reports that the documents were drawn up by planners from China's People's Liberation Army and calls for the creation of refugee camps on the China-North Korea border, while detaining key North Korean leaders in special camps where they can be monitored.

    The idea of the camps, according to Kyodo News, which received the documents, would be twofold, preventing rival factions in North Korea or another "military power" from harming the deposed Pyongyang brass while also keeping them from directing military operations or other activities that might not be in Beijing's interest.

    China's 879-mile border with North Korea is commonly crossed by defectors from the so-called Hermit Kingdom, and the planners believe that any event resulting in the fall of the country's government would result in a humanitarian crisis as millions of refugees head for the border.

    Despite China's support of North Korea, Kim Jong-un's regime has fallen afoul of Beijing several times in recent months, with the Chinese government recently warning that it would "by no means allow war or chaos to occur on our doorstep" in anticipation of a fourth nuclear test by North Korea.

    Veteran North Korea watchers say the timing of the leak suggests that China may have doubts about the strength of Kim Jong-un's grip on power in the totalitarian state.

    “What we have learned from the collapse of other dictatorships – the Soviet Union, Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya – is that the more totalitarian the regime, the harder and faster they fall,” Jun Okumurao of the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs told the Telegraph.

    "This is why we need contingency plans and I am sure that the US and South Korea have extensive plans in place, but the release of Chinese measures is new."

    Chinese contingency plan if North Korean regime collapses leaked | Fox News

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    Are things shaky in North Korea or is this a propaganda?
     
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  3. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    It's a signal to North Korea - if their planned nuclear tests cause problems, China won't come to save them this time.

    It's also a signal to the US, South Korea, and Japan - if North Korea gives them a legitimate casus belli by doing something out of line, they don't need to worry about the PLA (and don't need to shoot at China).
     
  4. abhi_the _gr8_maratha

    abhi_the _gr8_maratha Senior Member Senior Member

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    @t_co japan and america never case about your made in china signal
    .
    if america have to destroy north korea they will do it anytime , then it doesn't matter if china helps them or not
    .
    but right now america is facing economical crisis
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  5. abhi_the _gr8_maratha

    abhi_the _gr8_maratha Senior Member Senior Member

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    @t_co japan and america never case about your made in china signal
    .
    if america have to destroy north korea they will do it anytime , then it doesn't matter if china helps them or not
    .
    but right now america is facing economical crisis
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  6. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    Is Pakistan and Pakis reading what you said.

    I am surprised and sometime shocked to know that PRC and PRC Chinese support what is going on and what North Korea is doing. Your statement is refreshing to read.

    The Korean unification is something that will be spoken more about in the near future. I believe India will support such calculations.
     
  7. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    how ridiculous it is to state "China won't come to SAVE N Korea" and "don't need to worry abt PLA" blah blah.

    Sino- N.Korea relationship is not one-sided as u think China unilaterally patrons N.Korea. the relationship is MUTUAL i.e. China also needs N.Korea. it even gains more and more weight with Pivot to Asia + East Asia geopolitical imbroglios. NK offers China a good leverage with S.K. and Japan.

    Let's draw a parallel here though inaccurate perhaps - N.K. to China is like Israel to US. Israel may be at odds with Uncle from time to time so that even Kerry spoke nasty of Israel recently over Palestine (also bear in mind Israeli nuke capacity regardless of "intl opposition" ) .but NEVER NEVER will US turn its back on Israel by superficial gibberish like "not going to save ya".

    needless to mention there's an MBT in btwn!!


    Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
     
  8. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    The way things appear to be going, North Korea will implode in a way that China will not be able to stop it without appearing to have directly/overtly/blatantly interfered. Little Kim knocked off key people that kept the regime together. The regime will only get madder by the day.

    The best deal for China would be to let North Korea implode, "democratize," and have a regime that favors China. North Korea won't survive a western shock if it's reintegrated with the south, or sees an inflow of western influence. China will be able to act as a 'pressure-valve' for progress. In doing so, it will retain a buffer state against the west.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2014
  9. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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  10. Redhawk

    Redhawk Regular Member

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    Communist China has grown tired of North Korean antics as well. The C.C.P. supports the D.P.R.K. and the Korean Workers' Party (K.W.P.), i.e. the North Korean Communist party, but only to a point, after which the Chinese Communists will not tolerate any more drivel and provocative behaviour from the North Korean regime as it jeopardizes regional security.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2015
  11. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    along with Park of S.Korea Kim Jong-un has been invited to the 70th anniversary of WW2 victory (Asia) parade in Beijing. so lets wait n see.

    ~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
     
  12. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    if north korea also south korea have (re)unification because of PRC that will be impressive !!

    the north korea nuclear question is a fire-cracker that needs to be dealt for its neighbors and the world.
     
  13. adam7

    adam7 New Member

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    Even if North Korea would implode and China would do deal with South, where South takes over North, but guarantees no American troops in North, a reunification is not likely to be among same lines as German: no border, directly common currency, massive subsidies.

    More likely South would keep the border for a couple of decades, with separate currency and only relative visits, and tourism from South owed the border.

    Why? This would allow North to economically "pull itself up from its bootstraps" by having a cheap working force attracting not South and foreign investment, which would allow fast economic growth that North ppl would work for, instead of not being able to compete with South, if the economy would be merged directly.
     
  14. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    China is in a relatively comfortable position with the peninsula.

    With the South ~ the trading volume is likely to hit $ 300bln after the FTA kick-off. That's an impressive number compared to SK- US 110bln and China - India 70bln (India the world's No.3 economy in PPP ).

    For the North ~ China is the biggest investor and trade partner though relations in a stalemate for now due to the schism in between over denuclearization. NK has been moving ahead reforms bit by bit in a recovery.

    Going forward China IMO shall keep on encouraging narrow-down of differences, and mediating btwn the Koreas to ease tensions. No big power, Russia, China, America and Japan on the periphery, wants the peninsula to become a tinderbox.

    CJK is a potential economic bloc in parallel with NAFTA and EU.

    ~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
     
  15. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    No doubt what PRC has done with North Korea is impressive. Not sure if there is a actual division within North Korea with PRC (playing to the audience). But again it is impressive that North Korea has had no division within - perhaps the status quo suits everyone and even Cuba managed for many years but it is a definite credit to the principal (agency relationship).

    But.

    What would the parties gain by keeping North Korea like it is ...

    For how long ...

    Is there a prize for this ... move on !!

    Perhaps internally the principals subjects dishonor the relationship and want to move on themselves but how (but one not dare say that loud).

    Another item is that South Korea and USA trade is 100 Billion plus. What is the trade between North Korea and PRC in figures today (forget tomorrow). What is the USA trade with trading partners including South Korea and Japan with North Korea in figures forget today (ask tomorrow).

    Is it that one is allowing this to continue because it makes PRC look ... the opposite of impressive. Is it because there is a impasse. Perhaps North Korea has to develop on its own (no free biscuit). Incredible they are able to make a nuclear bomb but do not much else. But again some say the North Korean tests were actually done by others ...

    Will North Korea also get the huge economic investment like Pakistan is getting. Pakistan can act and be PRC investment consultants to North Korea (would be fascinating what they actually say). Perhaps it is not economic but Pakistan will get the hugely amenable relationship exactly like that exists between North Korea and PRC (infrastructure is there already). Where does Russia sit with North Korea and what do they have to say.

    One thing for sure is that the North Korea nuclear question is a firecracker !! De-nuclearislation of East Asia with Nuclear umbrella surely. Another is North Korea can be used to destabilize East Asia to cause a economic event (has been done one would say mildly before).

    But if De-Nuclearisation is in a agreement what will North Korea be asked to do ... how dare one think and say "open up" is that where the real differences in opinion lies.

    Why would someone not want North Korea to open up !!

    Business Contingency Planning:

    identifies an organization's exposure to internal and external threats and synthesizes hard and soft assets to provide effective prevention and recovery for the organization, while maintaining competitive advantage and value system integrity

    —Elliot et al. 1999


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_continuity_planning

    Make investment into North Korea before USA, South Korea, Japan and others do. But the investment that the latter does is not the same and purpose.

    Perhaps make North Korea into a gambling hub !!

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-to-gain-100-billion/articleshow/48070583.cms
     
  16. Satybharat

    Satybharat Regular Member

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    why China's best friends are biggest loser in the world - N Korea and Pakistan

    So that China can exploit the losers easily :D
     
    Redhawk, fyodor and sorcerer like this.
  17. Redhawk

    Redhawk Regular Member

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    China doesn't want a re-unified Korea. It is in China's interests to keep Korea divided between the capitalist South and the Stalinist North. A re-unified, industrialized Korea would get too big, too rich, and too powerful and China doesn't want a big, rich, powerful neighbour on its door-step.

    It has been projected that if Korea were to re-unify and the North's economic problems resolved, re-unified Korea would grow into an industrial powerhouse with the same productivity and domestic wealth as the former West Germany had at the time of its re-unification with East Germany on October 3rd, 1990.

    And that's too rich and too powerful a country for China to have on its north-eastern borders.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2015
  18. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    It's ridiculous to blabber like " China WANTS " this or that as if Chinese were the sole almighty.

    Has anybody checked with US if they'd allow Koreans to reunite, now that America is at the helm of joint military command of Korean troops?? Will the American forces and missile systems deployed on the peninsula have to pull out? What abt other stakeholders, Japan and Russia? Japan being the former colonial ruler of Korea would be scared off too.

    Last time Shinzo Abe was said to plan a blitz visit to Pyongyang possibly to break ice for Japan-N.Korea relations, then John Kerry called it off not to upset America with unilateral actions.:biggrin2:

    [​IMG]

    Furthermore who's going to foot the bill for reunification? China, America or Japan?? In the end it will be Koreans themselves. Germans were willing, so they had the reunification.

    An united Korea to boom into an economic powerhouse like Germany? Good, but before that how to deal wih N.Kerea's nuke capacity?
     
  19. Redhawk

    Redhawk Regular Member

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    That's pretty much right. Pakistan and North Korea are both failed states and pose no threat to China.
     

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