China In India's Missile Range

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Galaxy, Dec 1, 2011.

  1. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    China In India's Missile Range

    Siddharth Srivastava | WEDNESDAY, 30 NOVEMBER 2011
    [​IMG]

    New Delhi risks upsetting Asia’s delicate weapons balance

    Sometime over the next three months,perhaps as early as December, Indian defense officials are scheduled to test the country‘s first truly intercontinental ballistic missile, the Agni-V, which theoretically brings India’s weapons program within range of most of China.

    Officials insist that India has a no-strike-first policy and that the weapons are no threat to any other country in the region. Said VK Saraswat, the chief of the Defense Research & Development Organization, the federal body that oversees the country’s indigenous arms development: “We are not looking at how many missiles China or Pakistan has. With a 'no first-use' nuclear weapons policy, we only want a sufficient number of missiles to defend the country in the event of a crisis. Ours is a defensive-mode strategy, even if others have offensive postures.”

    However, as governments have pondered during the missile age, how much is a sufficient number? Tthe implications for the balance of power in the region are obvious. India’s two-decades-old missile program has mostly been aimed at nullifying nullify the threat from its immediate and unremittingly hostile neighbor, Pakistan. That appears to be changing. While shorter versions of the Agni missile series cover Pakistan, Agni III and beyond are part of India’s efforts to guard against China.

    The ICBM, named for the Hindu god Agni, the god of fire and the acceptor of sacrifices, is referred to by Indian officials and scientists as the “China killer,” hardly a peaceable phrase, due to its ability to target cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and reach the northernmost tips of the country.

    Yet with only a handful of missiles and believed to possess only 70 nuclear weapons, India has a long way before it couldmatch up to China’s arsenal, with its missiles capable of delivering payloads up to 14,000 km, covering much of the globe. China is believed to possess at least 410 nuclear weapons. This is probably a race the world does not need, as the western powers proved from the 1960s on. The United States and Russia have slowly and reluctantly been reducing their missile capacity for almost a generation, although both retain a vast suf ficiency enough to wipe out the planet several times over.

    Nonetheless, Agni-V allows India to join a select group of nations including the US, China, the UK and Russia, which possess ICBMs with the capability to strike targets at least 5,500 km away. India’s program director, Avinash Chander, said that Agni-V would be ready for incorporation into the armed forces by 2014.

    Agni V’s predecessor, Agni IV, which is capable of carrying nuclear warheads with a range of 3,500 km, was tested two weeks ago, almost a year after a previous test was unsuccessful. New Delhi called the test a “stupendous success” and suggesting the test puts India’s missile capability a notch higher than Pakistan’s.

    Although India’s record in developing indigenous weapons --tanks or fighter jets -- is abysmal, such as not been the case with its ballistic missile program. Some of this is due to progress in launching and installation of broadcast and remote sensing satellites in space under the aegis of the Indian Space Research Organization.

    This is despite sanctions US sanctions imposed on India’s dual-use technologies. The advances in missile technology have occurred concomitantly with strides in space research as the motors used in the launch vehicles of satellites have been incorporated into missiles.

    The Defense Research & Development Organization, which has an otherwise spotty record of weapons development, claims Agni-V is built almost fully with indigenous technology, although Indian scientists are known to copy readily available blueprints from Russia.

    Agni-V must undergo two to four more “repeatable” tests before the weapon goes operational, Avinash Chander said. “Our aim is to take just two to three years from the first test to the induction phase.”

    In June, the now-retired Air Chief Marshal PV Naik said India's rising global stature demands developing the ICBM and long-range attack capability possessed by elite nations.

    “India should pursue an ICBM program to acquire ranges of 10,000 km or even more,” Naik said. “Breaking out of the regional context is important as the country's sphere of influence grows. We have no territorial designs on any country, but India needs the capability to match its sphere of influence.”

    India’s deepening interest in ICBM’s has occurred even as the US has opened its defense armaments market, including dual-use technology, for Indian use, definitely moving away from a sanctions-ridden policy paradigm that harkened back to the Cold War era when India was aligned with the erstwhile Soviet Union.

    Events such as the Kargil war of 1999, during which the country nearly went to war with Pakistan and the November 2008 Mumbai terror attacks orchestrated by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists have only heightened India’s insecurities and led to efforts to refine its ability to attack and protect itself.

    Since the Mumbai attacks in November 2008, India has also accelerated its ballistic missile defense program with help from its newly friendly defense partner America, to protect against a sudden missile attack, possibly nuclear tipped, particularly from rogue elements in Pakistan.

    The defense expertise can also be extended to space to protect India’s remote and communication satellites, especially after China conducted an anti-satellite test in 2007, in what is seen as a potential “Star Wars” arms race between the two Asian nations, with America strategically siding with India.

    Given the closed nature of China’s polity, nobody is quite sure what kind of investments and developments are happening in China’s defense sphere. Some analysts believe that China’s military capabilities today could be superior to America’s although US defense expenditure dwarfs that of the rest of the world combined.

    Pakistan is no patsy either, with a missile program that is actively promoted by China, and with the country having developed its own nuclear capability. Several of its attack ballistic missiles with the potential to destroy Indian cities are a copy of those in possession of China.

    The country has test-fired the Shaheen-2, a 2000-km range missile. Pakistan, meanwhile, continues to receive military largesse from America as a partner in the global war against terror, though India has long held that such stockkpiling of weapons only adds to instability in the region.

    New Delhi feels that US-supplied armaments to Pakistan are more potent against a conventional enemy rather than the amorphous terror networks that also spread over Afghanistan and need effective intelligence and pinpointed operations, such as the one that killed Osama Bin Laden, to neutralize.

    India has thus been implementing a massive defense modernization effort over the past few years. Given the country’s incipient domestic inability to manufacture military hardware, most arms are imported despite the fact that the missile program remains an indigenous effort that breeds off the successes in India’s space program.

    In its latest report, Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, has said that India has become the biggest arms importer in the world and in the process overtaken China, though Indian observers say that a major portion of Beijing’s arms budget continues to be hidden, secret and unknown to the world.

    Asia Sentinel - China In India's Missile Range




     
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  3. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Agni V: Will It Enhance India’s Deterrence Against China? – Analysis

    India’s Defence Research and Development Agency (DRDO) recently declared that it would be testing, for the first time, a 5000 km range Agni V missile by February 2012. It is construed to be a major leap in the country’s missile capability, over and above the 3000 km range Agni III missile that has already been accepted for induction into the armed forces, and Agni IV that has also been tested successfully. Together, these missiles are supposed to give a new meaning to India’s deterrence against China, since the new missiles, once operationally deployed, can reach distant but strategically important Chinese cities like Shanghai. But will the new feat in India’s armory dilute its ‘security dilemma’ against China?

    For the record, the February trials of Agni V would be followed by a series of modifications and further trials. So it will take at least couple of years before the new missiles pass the entire test and are inducted and deployed in reasonable numbers in the Indian army. The 2014 deadline, as declared by the DRDO, seems to be a difficult target and may get delayed by a couple of years. Agni V apart, India is also lagging behind in developing the other components of the deterrence basket that it seeks to construct against China. These include, among others, a credible ballistic missile defence (BMD); the country has had limited success in intercepting incoming missiles with a range of 2000 km. DRDO’s claims notwithstanding, it will take many more years before India has similar deterrence for missiles that have a range up to 5000 km.

    In designing the Agni V prototype against China, the Indian defence establishment realizes that all important cities and vital locations in China are either in the eastern or northern parts, far away from Indian soil, and thus would require accuracy and precision that would require iterated testing. This is a time consuming process. Further, the real challenge from China is near the LAC where the Chinese have gained strategic advantage over India in all aspects of military preparations. Missiles, whether of a short or long-range, would be of no use to India in deterring a Chinese pushover ‘near the LAC’. India would require effective air power capable of defending its interests in border areas. Unfortunately, this is an area where India lags far behind China.

    While Agni I and II are Pakistan-specific, Agni III, IV and V are China-specific. And yet, the far-off regions of China would still be out of reach for Indian missiles. Perhaps that explains why these missiles are not able to engender confidence against China. Cost-effective deterrence against China demands that India work out on an advanced version of Agni V capable of striking at 6000 km that will bring most of China within its target range. If missile defence is going to be the core element of India’s deterrence capability against China, the political leadership must give the go-ahead to an Agni VI project aimed exclusively at China.

    In this context, China stands as an example. China’s missile programme has been a key area of its military modernization and is ahead of India by at least a decade. Today, China has all range missiles capable of reaching global locations. While it has deployed a sizeable number of SRBMs off the Taiwan Strait, it has also deployed IRBMs against India that are located in Tibet and Xinjiang. These missiles can attack any target in India and are in operational deployment. In order to improve its regional deterrence against India, as the US Department of Defense Report on Chinese military power (2010) reveals, China has now replaced older liquid-fuelled, nuclear capable CSS-3 IRBMs with more advanced and survivable solid-fuelled CSS-5 MRBMs.

    Missiles apart, China is also way ahead in other aspects of military modernization. In January this year, China confirmed its first test flight of the J-20 stealth fighter jet. Thus, China is making progress faster than expected in developing a rival to Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor, the world’s only operational stealth fighter designed to evade detection by enemy radar. This will be over and above its most advanced aircraft presently in service: the Russian Su-30 and Su-27 fighters. As for the navy, President Hu Jintao has already made its modernization a priority. The PLA navy is upgrading its destroyers and frigates to sail further and strike deeper. China could also launch its first aircraft carrier by next year.

    The speed and scope of Chinese military modernization has been seen with concern in New Delhi as evident from annual reports of India’s Ministry of Defence in recent years. Yet, the pace and nature of Indian military modernization is painfully slow and the asymmetric gap with China has only been widening. The development, testing and deployment of Agni V are not going to reduce this strategic reality. India needs to provide more vigour, focus, and perhaps resources, to its military modernization programme in order to manage the security dilemma with China.

    Agni V: Will It Enhance India’s Deterrence Against China? - Analysis
     
  4. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    flawed Analysis the author has forget that we have already shown capability to send package at precise location on moon which means any spot on earth is not much of issue, it is all about giving green signal to the same from our political masters.
     
  5. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Having the capability or potential is one thing, having actualy done it is a different matter. And space capability doesn't automatically translate into prowess in ballistic missile technology. Also India to this day still hasn't mastered technology to make cygnoic engine which is crucial for deep space exploration.
    India launched her first satellite into space in 1975, but it took another 2 decades to develop a short range liquid-powered ballistic missile. Similarly China launched her first satellite in 1970, but first ICBM launch came only a decade later. This shows mastering technologies for long rang ballistic missile is quite a different beast than launching satellite.
     
  6. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Milestone dates for China & India regarding their nuclear and space capabilities (T for first test, S for service entry)

    China India
    Atomic bomb 1964(T) 1974(T)
    Hydrogen bomb 1967(T) 1998(T?)
    IRBM DF3 (1971S) Agni2(1999T)
    ICBM DF5(1971T, 1981S) ?
    Satellite 1970 1975
    Launch into GS orbit 1984 2003 (russian upper stage)
    Manned space flight 2005 ?
     
  7. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    India does not use names of Hindu Gods as the above article says.Agni simply means Fire in Hindi and Fire is also considered as a God.

    Anyway as per topic... India right now doesn't really need ICBM's of 10,000+ km range as China has because we don't simply need it.All we need is missiles having upto 5,500 kms range which are efficient and accurate and more specifically SLBM's so that we have potent second strike capabilities.ICBM program is costly and the economy is yet not so strong.Also at least 50% of arsenal should be around 1000-2000 km range(specially for our dear lovely and naughty western neighbour)
     
    W.G.Ewald and sayareakd like this.
  8. jamwal

    jamwal Regular Member

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    Article quoted in first post is pure propaganda. A******* say that India is disrupting the balance, while strangely mellow about Sino-Pak-nKorean axis of nuclear smuggling. This article is not fit to be printed on used toilet paper
     
    The Messiah and mayfair like this.
  9. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Good, now our indian friends can have a good sleep.
     
  10. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    And how about you? Are you getting enough sleep or these small Indian firecrackers have taken your sleep?
     
  11. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Well, given the way the US is encircling China, and the way the Chinese are getting jittery, it appears that it is China which is losing sleep.

    Rock-a-bye, baby,
    On the tree top,
    When the wind blows
    The cradle will rock;
    When the bough breaks
    The cradle will fall,
    Down will come baby,
    Cradle, and all.

    [​IMG]

    Even Myanmar, a close friend of China, has seen the writing on the wall and are seeking new friends!
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2011
  12. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    China is getting encircled in "String of Samosas"... almost all the neighbours are getting against China due to it's arrogant behaviour.
     
  13. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    That is one hell of a title, dripping all over with the self imposed guilt. Are they paid extra for such titles?

    Regards,
    Virendra
     
  14. HinduMind

    HinduMind New Member

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    hahahah..The author of this article is a complete idiot! What does he think DRDO is? A Chinese company?

    The DRDO has some of the best minds in India working to make India safer but they don't have enough support from the government (through proper funding etc.).
     
  15. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    Now where have I heard this ;)
     
  16. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    China sceptical about India's new nuke missile Agni V


    ANI | New Delhi, Dec 3(ANI):

    India's latest nuclear-capable missile, Agni V, which is scheduled to be tested within three months, is a warning signal to its neighbours, especially China.

    Agni V would be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to a distance of 5000 kilometres, which implies it is capable of striking northern China.

    Though India has repeatedly stressed its no-first-strike policy, the new missile has stoked speculations about an arms race in the South Asian region.

    China, however, is sceptical of India's enhanced military capacity, and believes that Agni V is built to achieve a specific objective.

    "India is expanding its military strength but it is still uncertain whether India will realise its dream of being a leading power, because India's weak economy is severely unmatched with the image of a leading military power," The Sydney Morning Herald quoted the People's Daily, the official organ of the Chinese Communist Party, as saying. :rofl: :lol:

    The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute had earlier declared India as the biggest arms importer in the world, ahead of China.

    Pakistan has long described India's Agni missile program as "incompetent", and claimed that its own Shaheen missiles are superior to missiles used by neighbour.

    India's enhancement of its nuclear capacity comes in the wake of Australia considering to lift ban on uranium sales to India.

    Though Australian provisions require the country's uranium to be used only for civilian purposes, it would augment India's military supplies. (ANI)

    China sceptical about India's new nuke missile Agni V
     

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