The United States is going to start talks with the Taliban in Doha,Qatar where the Taliban has been allowed to open an office. The very same people who the US sought out in its war on terror for being responsible for 9/11. This marks the beginning of the process to pull out US troops and equipment from Afghanistan. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been distraught with the turn of events and has suspended the defence dialog with the US.
The US moves to talk with and deal with Taliban in order to secure “safe passage” for its troops and equipment is going to has lasting repercussions for both the region as well as the world at large.
Firstly, the deal effectively means that the War on Terror has been won by the terrorists no matter how sugar coated the deal is put up for public consumption.
This deal is also a blow for overall fight against terror. The US or the west will have no moral authority in sanctioning countries or regime that support terror groups, Hamas and Hezbollah for example. When the US can deal with Taliban he very regime that helped 9/11 attacks, how will it lecture other regimes into not dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah type terror organizations?
This US move is actually legitimizing terrorism. The impact on India is going to be immediate and the prospects sound scary. The Talibans, the Haqaanis, the LeTs under the guidance of ISI will get a fresh impetus to take on India. The terrorists will be basking in the glory of winning against the mighty US and will train their guns on India. Post 2014, when a regime change is widely expected with the Right Wing BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi coming to power. Modi has made it amply clear that he will take on terrorism sponsored by Pakistan head on. This raises the prospects of an all out conflict should a major terror attack of the proportion of 26/11 in Mumbai take place and traced to Pak sponsored terrorists. That the conflict could go nuclear is feared by all and the US will be implicitly responsible for such an eventuality both for overlooking years of Pak proliferation as well as setting up conditions that leads to a war between India and Pakistan thanks to its deal with Taliban.
India for its part will have to open dialogs with nations like Russia and Iran which have legitimate concerns over the return of Taliban. During the 90s, these nations actively collaborated with the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. The prospects of another civil war in Afghanistan has increased now and all the hard work and investments done in Afghanistan is now in jeopardy.
The only thing to look out for which can break this deal is the attitude of Taliban which will be looking to rub it into the US. They might play hard ball.
We are looking at very interesting and scary times ahead.