Urbanization: the only solution for a modern India

Jan 10, 2013 5:01 pm 8 comments

One of the first chapters in ancient history that are taught to everyone begins with the discussion of ancient civilizations. But what made us call these societies, be it Harappan or Mesopotamian, as civilizations and distinguish them from the earlier agricultural societies? It was the presence of large urban populations and consequently the breakthroughs that these societies achieved ranging from handicraft, sewage to metallurgy. But what is the point that I am trying to put across with this example? The point is that large aggregation of people in one place i.e. urbanization is essential for innovation which in turn drives the development and progress of any society.

If we look at the data, urbanization and growth have a high correlation. Now, it is difficult to tell which factor feeds into the growth of the other but it can be safely stated that when people come together, they bring their ideas together and hence increase the probability of new innovation. It is very much like a popping popcorn, where we do not know which popcorn will pop out first from the pan. But if there are less number of popcorn, we know for sure that there is a very small chance for any of them to pop out. A cursory look at the urbanization map in figure 1 is enough to explain that the most developed countries in the world today are also the ones that are highly urbanized. And all these developed countries have transitioned from rural to urban in the last two centuries and witnessed a tremendous improvement in the living standards of their residents.

Urbanization-degree

Figure 1 Urbanization Map

Now lets look at the performance of India, China and USA for the past 50 years and this trend comes out in a much stronger fashion. If we contrast the three countries, USA was already enough urbanized in the 1960s, while China and India started catching up much later. But China and India make a better comparison. Till 1980s, India was ahead of China both in terms of per capita GDP as well as urbanization. But post Xiaoping’s reforms, we can see China grew rapidly on both indicators, which is reflected from the almost vertical graphs of both the Chinese GDP as well as urban population.

But why do people migrate from villages to the cities? It is because of the better opportunities that cities provide for individual development and that there are very few other occupational choices available in the villages. This is also reflected from the fact that usually the poverty incidence rates are less in urban areas as compared to the rural [Source: UNDESA]. So, cities are better equipped to provide livelihood opportunities. Thus we can say that in general people will have a tendency to migrate to cities as long as cities provide better lifestyle and employment opportunities, which in the long run they should.

GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) Agriculture (% of GDP) Industry (% of GDP) Services (% of GDP)
Japan

39972

1

27

71

USA

37330

1

20

79

UK

28244

1

22

78

Brazil

4717

5

28

67

China

2426

10

47

43

India

795

18

27

55

Although, as stated above urbanization and growth are highly correlated but we need to explore the channel that actually brings this change. If we look at the table comparing sectoral GDP composition of different economies, we find that agriculture has an almost insignificant share in the economies of rich countries like the USA, UK and Japan. Next comes the middle income economies like Brazil and China, which have a higher share of agriculture when compared to the developed economies but it is still less than India. So, the share of agriculture as a percentage of total GDP falls as a country grows over time. Since the other two sectors i.e. services and industries usually flourish only in cities and have higher productivity growth than agriculture, this explains the close association between growth and urbanization. So, is there some way to accelerate urbanization? Yes, if we can design policies that incentivize more people to migrate towards cities.

Having looked at the role played by the cities for ‘wealth generation’, now arises the question to compare it against the policy paradigm that is currently famous in India.  To understand this paradigm, lets look at one of the statements made by Chief Minister of Bihar  Nitish Kumar, “Big farmers and entrepreneurs in Punjab are complaining labour shortage because of decrease in arrival of labourers from Bihar who are getting employment in their native villages itself”. Nitish Kumar is one of the progress minded politicians in India and when he makes this statement, it reflects that he thinks it is a positive contribution when the fact is it is quite opposite. Nitish was just an example to show that many of our politicians and intellectuals in India favour policies that provide incentive for poor people to stay in the villages. Although, it is a different fact that most of these people themselves live in the cities.

These policies suppress the natural tendency of people to migrate to cities and also introduce labor market imperfections. But what is the harm of such policies? Apart from the efficiency argument where labor is not allocated in the most efficient sector, the biggest problem with such policies is that they are not sustainable in the long run. Lets try to have a look at some of the reasons. First, growth is driven by industry and services sector and not by agriculture. With the spread of knowledge about medical and other modern amenities, villagers expect similar facilities for themselves as city people. But it is not possible for any rural society to self-sustain these facilities. It would always require a transfer of wealth from urban to rural centres and it is difficult to justify any such permanent transfer for a long period of time.

Second, the average land holding size is extremely small; equal to 1.33 hectares in India and this is one of the biggest hurdles for agricultural modernization in many regions. It not only impedes agricultural growth but is also insufficient for meeting basic human requirements like food and shelter. No surprise that India has such a large number of poor in the villages. Even if we are able to overcome modernization problem and achieve the maximum possible agricultural efficiency, it would still be a small relief in the face of growing population. Not to forget that land reforms and consolidation problem is a topic of huge debate and reason for large number of rural feuds.

Third, such policies invert the social security pyramid i.e. more beneficiaries than contributors. Given the reasons above a rural society would always be dependent on the transfer of wealth from the cities. Since, output fluctuations are an integral part of market economies, we need some kind of policy intervention to smooth out the shocks. A large beneficiary population puts high pressure on economic resources in normal times and reduces the elbowroom that could otherwise have been leveraged during recessions. Hence such urban-to-rural wealth transfer system would not be stable and even a small shock can lead to this top heavy pyramid crumble under its own weight. It does not take too many wrong decisions to throw the economy under a long recession and so we need to form policies that do not take growth for granted.

Now that we know policies that portray a rosy village are unsustainable, we should look at other fruits of growth that are actually denied to rural people through such policies. Education and medical facilities require a lot of investment in infrastructure as well as personnel. These are an example of public goods that should be made available to as many people as possible, but they require huge investment. Urban areas due to their high population densities can provide access to large population over these public goods. For example, it is not possible to sustain big hospitals with state-of-the-art technology if there are less number of people who can access the benefits. This is the reason that often, for basic treatments, people have to travel for long distances and many times the geographical barriers and time delays are just enough for loss of lives. So, we need urbanization because large population aggregations are essential to afford and get best returns on such resource intensive infrastructure investments. This is highly essential for a resource and credit constrained country like India. Also, cities are such huge aggregations where everyone cares about their own work and not caste. This will provide a final blow to this problem, which no amount of affirmative action can help if people continue to reside in the same segregated areas of the villages like their forefathers.

If we leave the people to make their own decisions, I am sure India would transition to an urban economy sooner or later. But is there a scope for government intervention? We definitely do not need any policy initiatives, which can delay this migration phenomenon. But that leaves for the government to play a constructive role in development of cities by helping to remove the coordination problems that arise due to large number of players involved in building new cities. Also, it is needed to develop and enforce the vision needed for avoiding the pitfalls usually seen in case of cities that grow without any careful thought. It is this coordination failure that usually leads to sewer department digging the road immediately after PWD finishes building a new road. At the same time, government can help in optimizing investment across cities and closely monitor real estate bubbles.

To realize the dream of a modern India we need to first clear our minds and accept the reality that a strong and developed India requires urbanization. Any policy, which thwarts this progress, need to be reassessed from a long-term perspective and implemented only if there is no other alternative. This will require serious effort to change our beliefs, as we will need to revisit the story of “Do Bigha Jameen” where the protagonist was almost able to earn enough in three months in Calcutta to prevent the auction of his village land. So next time you watch it, you should not feel sad about the tragic end but think about the earning opportunity that Calcutta provided to Shambhu.

8 Comments

  • Fantastic article! You really hit the nail on the head. Urbanization is really the only way forward for India. One point I would like to here is the urgent need to shift large numbers of urban employees from the informal economic sector to the formal one. Currently around 80% of all urban employees work in the informal economic sector. Although there has been a little improvement over the years it has been far to slow. In order to successfully pursue the urbanization process each city has to increase its tax revenue lest it end up in another wealth transfer scheme within the city itself in addition to the urban rural setting you mentioned.

  • I suggest two books on the subject:

    “Small is Beautiful” by E.F.Schumacher

    “Small is Possible” by George McRobie

  • Great Article.

  • I am partially agree with the writer. IF we wish to apply the developed countries model, certainly we will fail because the demographic and geographic in particularly is not similar. The biggest issue to deal in urbanization is its colossal population and density. It is very difficult to bear such cumbersome and built the infrastructure. This will led to mentally and physically suffocation and strangling.

  • I really like this idea to urbanize India in order to develop it. But as urbanization requires transfer of population from villages to cities, in Indian respect(over-crowed cities), modernization and industrialization of village itself will be practical.what I’m trying to say is that as every has different capability to succeed, every country has its own unique way to develop. Its true that developed countries like USA, UK and Japan has very less share of agriculture in there GDP but India needs to constantly maintain its high agricultural production in order to feed his ever-rising population.
    Industrialization and modernization of our villages would be a good idea. If we consider that famous ‘red corridor’ area we can see that it has more that 80% of the total natural resources of India. If we provide good security potential industrialist can set their factories and can defiantly contribute to our GDP as there is nothing great as having an industries close to the resource.
    Secondly, we have a rich and diverse geographical condition. If we can tap our Tourism(service sector) well, which is not tapped well, it can really boast other industries like hotel and aviation sector which will do wonders for our coun

    • I will answer your questions one by one:

      “but India needs to constantly maintain its high agricultural production in order to feed his ever-rising population.”

      – You do not need large population employed in agriculture to get good farm yields. Actually capital intensive agriculture has higher productivity than labor intensive agriculture model(used currently).

      “Secondly, we have a rich and diverse geographical condition. If we can tap our Tourism(service sector) well, which is not tapped well”

      – This is just one example. But growth is about developing new ideas which come up when people have opportunity to come and work together like in big cities. We need to come with new ideas every now and then to continue growing after picking the low hanging fruits like the one you mentioned.

    • LordOfTheUnderworlds

      please spare our few remaining forests. mining does not make help common people. more often it makes their life hell by destroying enviornment and creating local mafia. central and eastern India needs industrialization and urbanization, but not by mining and destrying forests.

  • LordOfTheUnderworlds

    This is much needed and very well written article. Urbanization of India does not need any specific push, it is inevitable and is hapening already, but in a very disorganized manner. This because decision makers have for decades closed their eyes and living in denial by saying let us go back to villages. No one can just wish that there should be urbanization or not; either way peoole will keep moving to cities. people are moving from villages to cities and nearby towns but because of lack of planning most have them have to live in slum like conditions ( where usually they don’t live for free but pay rent or buy the ‘house’ with their hard earned money from the slum mafia). Those who should have planned for this in advance look at them as a burden and illegals and our cities look like slums and smaller towns look like overgrown villages.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox

Join other followers: