De-Dollarisation News, Updates and Discussions

[Raj Malhotra]

US was a super power even in 1900-1945 when British pound was World premier reserve and trading currency. US & USD is not going anywhere.

 

[tsunami]

US was a super power even in 1900-1945 when British pound was World premier reserve and trading currency. US & USD is not going anywhere.

Time frame you mentioned was when US used to be manufacturing giant, debt was low. It still is today but if demand for USD goes down, which will if many of these countries start doing trade in local currencies then USD will start to loose it's value and then US treasury bonds will become a bad investment. Once govt.US will be in much bigger problem.

 

[tsunami]

 

[Butter Chicken]

 

[Tshering22]

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Germany, NZ and the UK are a surprise. I wonder whether trading in pound sterling and NZD is worth it.

 

[The Juggernaut]

 

[tsunami]

Next wave of banking crisis to start soon.

 

[Tshering22]

OK these views on De-dollarization are more like dooms day scenario but please give you points.



Ankit Shah have written books and predicted de-dollarization 3 years ago and he predicted the banking crisis in the West.

Dollar ain't going anywhere. It will still remain a strong internationally traded currency with significant demand for countries that would continue trading with the US. The US budget deficit model ensures that the Dollar remains a preferred currency in the Western hemisphere.

The banking crisis currently that's gripped the Federal Reserve and the central banks of US lackey states are mainly due to the incompetence of the Liberal-Left world order. Once that crosses a certain threshold, it will lead to public revolt. Europeans and North Americans may be weak when it comes to opposing mullahs but when their material comforts are hit, they go into full extreme mode. This is already being seen in countries like the Netherlands where farmers upstaged their sitting PM for his Net Zero madness by shutting down farms, resulting in skyrocketing prices.

Federal Reserve has already hiked the interest rates again a couple of days ago and it cannot keep doing that. The more it hikes, the faster 3rd parties will move away from the Dollar. I am not a financial analyst but have a gut feeling that whatever new currencies the BRICS, Brazil+Argentina (yes, they are making a common South American currency), and the African Union (proposed currency is called the Afro ) are planning would result in the Dollar going to as low as 30-35% of the global currency reserve in terms of value and stop right there.

Yuan will continue to chip away to some extent and stable Arab currencies like the UAE Dirham will take some market for the time being until these new currencies come into being.

European Union might become a casualty of the Dollar vs New currencies war.

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Lanka has already started using our Rupee as the trading currency as it is valued higher. Given their temperament and politics, Lankans might actually be able to make it out of the quagmire that they are in, provided they get rid of the Chinese loans as soon as possible and take their path to recovery seriously.

Ranil Wickramasinghe is still controlled by Rajapakse. They badly need new leadership.

 

[tsunami]

Dollar ain't going anywhere. It will still remain a strong internationally traded currency with significant demand for countries that would continue trading with the US. The US budget deficit model ensures that the Dollar remains a preferred currency in the Western hemisphere.

The banking crisis currently that's gripped the Federal Reserve and the central banks of US lackey states are mainly due to the incompetence of the Liberal-Left world order. Once that crosses a certain threshold, it will lead to public revolt. Europeans and North Americans may be weak when it comes to opposing mullahs but when their material comforts are hit, they go into full extreme mode. This is already being seen in countries like the Netherlands where farmers upstaged their sitting PM for his Net Zero madness by shutting down farms, resulting in skyrocketing prices.

Federal Reserve has already hiked the interest rates again a couple of days ago and it cannot keep doing that. The more it hikes, the faster 3rd parties will move away from the Dollar. I am not a financial analyst but have a gut feeling that whatever new currencies the BRICS, Brazil+Argentina (yes, they are making a common South American currency), and the African Union (proposed currency is called the Afro ) are planning would result in the Dollar going to as low as 30-35% of the global currency reserve in terms of value and stop right there.

Yuan will continue to chip away to some extent and stable Arab currencies like the UAE Dirham will take some market for the time being until these new currencies come into being.

European Union might become a casualty of the Dollar vs New currencies war.



Lanka has already started using our Rupee as the trading currency as it is valued higher. Given their temperament and politics, Lankans might actually be able to make it out of the quagmire that they are in, provided they get rid of the Chinese loans as soon as possible and take their path to recovery seriously.

Ranil Wickramasinghe is still controlled by Rajapakse. They badly need new leadership.

Problem is everyone is holding their maximum foreign exchange reserves in dollar, savings are parked in Dollar bonds. If Dollar loose start going down in international trade it will start loosing it's value. More and more countries will store different currencies instead of dollar which will reduce demand and dollar will start declining then world will dump dollar from it's saving this will reduce it's value further.

More the dollar looses it's value more countries will dump it and then it will loose more value.

 

[Tshering22]

The problem is everyone is holding their maximum foreign exchange reserves in dollars, savings are parked in Dollar bonds. If the Dollar loose starts going down in international trade it will start losing its value. More and more countries will store different currencies instead of the dollar which will reduce demand and the dollar will start declining then the world will dump the dollar from it's saving which will reduce its value further.

The more the dollar loses its value more countries will dump it and then it will lose more value.

Look at this:



The only way to actually make the Dollar move is to :

1. Have a reliable replacement that is tangibly present (not the imaginary currencies that are grandiose announcements)
2. Develop a C2C bilateral currency trade mechanism. The only robust ones currently operational are between Russia-China and Brazil-China. All others are too small to even get noticed.

What India is doing with a dozen countries is extremely small and has little impact. Much of Indian companies that don't even have business in the West are acting as if sanctions would destroy them and are not selling to Russia. This makes Ruskies have lots of rupees that they can't use and makes us look unreliable AF.

 

[Asmaka Mahajanapada]

Sounds plausible

 

[Tshering22]

Sounds plausible

The main problem that the Liberal World Order (LWO) is that the horse (BRICS) they thought was going to run for them has developed a mind of its own. Blackrock, Goldman Sachs etc., want profits on their terms. BRICS is turning out to be a bunch that wants to grow on their own terms in different ways. This is further exacerbated by the other bet that the man here is talking about - the rise of Saudi and UAE as other growing markets.

ASEAN despite their political subservience to the US, is a complete bitch of China - the trade numbers between each ASEAN member as well as the favourable China-centric trade policies should validate my statement. Indonesia and Malaysia worship China despite the 24-7 news updates of the "South China Sea conflict" being shown on TV. Singapore despite its "Banana Asian" reputation, has become the new Hong Kong after Hong Kong was cut down to size. Investors from mainland China have engulfed Singapore in every way possible.

I have crew members and friends in the Philippines who told me that Chinese factories in the Philippines are getting more favours from their government than their own local factories despite the news about the constant tensions on the high seas between the Philippine Navy and Chinese fishing trawlers being broadcasted round the clock. Let's not even talk about Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos which are virtually in Beijing's pocket. Vietnam has some Western leanings nowadays but even then they downplay their rivalry with China. India weaves and dodges in and out of these countries in a much smaller form and uses its diaspora leverage to get things done. Japan and South Korea have a tremendous pop culture impact but that's about it. When it comes to hard numbers, Asia is safely in Chinese hands for all practical purposes. That's pretty much East and Southeast Asia for you.

GS, Blackrock, and the rest of the LWO are finding this sudden change a bit of a shock and are trying to pry open the Chinese stranglehold. But considering how deep China has penetrated, it's almost impossible.

Then there is Russia that's using this war as an excuse to double down on the independence movements in Africa. SAHEL countries are already boiling with Wagner making massive gains, helping topple pro-EU and pro-French regimes in three major uranium, copper and gold-rich countries. Niger is basically France's uranium mine while a lot of gold comes from Mali and Burkina Faso. Coercion, threats of sanctions and intimidation tactics are further isolating the LWO from the rest of the world, especially in Africa where EU countries are desperately trying to stop a Russian takeover. Brazil and India are pretty much playing both sides and winning on their own while South Africa wants to align with China and Russia but openly can't do so due to its high export dependence on the West.

 

[Asmaka Mahajanapada]

The main problem that the Liberal World Order (LWO) is that the horse (BRICS) they thought was going to run for them has developed a mind of its own. Blackrock, Goldman Sachs etc., want profits on their terms. BRICS is turning out to be a bunch that wants to grow on their own terms in different ways. This is further exacerbated by the other bet that the man here is talking about - the rise of Saudi and UAE as other growing markets.

ASEAN despite their political subservience to the US, is a complete bitch of China - the trade numbers between each ASEAN member as well as the favourable China-centric trade policies should validate my statement. Indonesia and Malaysia worship China despite the 24-7 news updates of the "South China Sea conflict" being shown on TV. Singapore despite its "Banana Asian" reputation, has become the new Hong Kong after Hong Kong was cut down to size. Investors from mainland China have engulfed Singapore in every way possible.

I have crew members and friends in the Philippines who told me that Chinese factories in the Philippines are getting more favours from their government than their own local factories despite the news about the constant tensions on the high seas between the Philippine Navy and Chinese fishing trawlers being broadcasted round the clock. Let's not even talk about Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos which are virtually in Beijing's pocket. Vietnam has some Western leanings nowadays but even then they downplay their rivalry with China. India weaves and dodges in and out of these countries in a much smaller form and uses its diaspora leverage to get things done. Japan and South Korea have a tremendous pop culture impact but that's about it. When it comes to hard numbers, Asia is safely in Chinese hands for all practical purposes. That's pretty much East and Southeast Asia for you.

GS, Blackrock, and the rest of the LWO are finding this sudden change a bit of a shock and are trying to pry open the Chinese stranglehold. But considering how deep China has penetrated, it's almost impossible.

Then there is Russia that's using this war as an excuse to double down on the independence movements in Africa. SAHEL countries are already boiling with Wagner making massive gains, helping topple pro-EU and pro-French regimes in three major uranium, copper and gold-rich countries. Niger is basically France's uranium mine while a lot of gold comes from Mali and Burkina Faso. Coercion, threats of sanctions and intimidation tactics are further isolating the LWO from the rest of the world, especially in Africa where EU countries are desperately trying to stop a Russian takeover. Brazil and India are pretty much playing both sides and winning on their own while South Africa wants to align with China and Russia but openly can't do so due to its high export dependence on the West.

Yes, lot's of moving pieces right now but also feels like the world maybe shaping up towards an eventual bipolar world (G2 on the works?). I wonder how effectively can countries like India with aspirations for a true multipolarity stand their neutral ground and fend off resistance from the hegemonic powers. God forbid cold war BS in 21st century again.

 

[Tshering22]

Yes, lots of moving pieces right now but also feels like the world may be shaping up toward an eventual bipolar world (G2 in the works?). I wonder how effectively can countries like India with aspirations for a true multipolarity stand their neutral ground and fend off resistance from the hegemonic powers. God forbid cold war BS in the 21st century again.

G2 won't happen as much as everyone might be talking about it in the Western narrative. Americans want it because they are familiar with the format with the USSR; the Chinese want it because they are clear on who will be their adversary and who will not be - a controlled environment.

It was a remote possibility when Obama and Hu Jintao agreed to it but the Russia-Ukraine war has shown us that there are many players in this game that won't be happy with G2 format. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Brazil, us, Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina and several other countries are not interested in a bipolar world that caused so much trouble between 1945 and 1991. No one wants a repeat of that era.

Even France and Germany don't want a G2 as it would completely destroy any European international voice, which is why Macron, Scholz and Ursula von Der Leyen are appeasing Xi day in and day out. You would be surprised to observe that the current Israeli administration also distrusts and dislikes the LWO and prefers to keep their options open vis-a-vis Russia (for all their regional disagreements with them) as the Globohomos have been targeting the Jewish right wing in Israel under Netanyahu and Benett.

This war has opened a can of worms that the LWO was not expecting in terms of geopolitical developments. Russia knows that getting China that much power is not safe so it will hedge its position with us; that is one reason why Putin keeps dragging us in every forum for the last 20 years. He knows that we are the only ones who can and will say "Fuck you" to the CCP - like the sort of an eastern version of pre-LWO France.

We will continue to retain strategic autonomy while playing all sides even when we cross Japan as the 3rd largest economy in the world, as it suits us to keep US and Chinese embroiled against each other. The more they cross their swords, the better it is for us to grow. Americans know that we are not in their camp despite common grievance against CCP; the Chinese know the reality that we are not entirely pro-LWO despite their media ranting about how we are on the Western side.

India will work with Russia, UAE, France, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Brazil, Mexico, etc. and create a third position.

 

[Hari Sud]

BRICS

China is pushing for the BRICS expansion as a counter weight for G7 or perhaps a discussion forum like G20. They want to dominate it with their client states.

India‘s stand as the Foreign Secretary said earlier, is open minded. That means no expansion.

No undue and unpopular expansion with a stroke of pen should be allowed. Just like EU expansion, a proper pre qualification is needed. Moreover, before BRICS is expanded, they have to draft a constitution of understanding (certain Dos and Don‘ts). Also, how far free trade is allowed within the grouping including domination of currency etc.

If things like this are sorted out then expansion should begin. In fact unless trade and market issues are sorted out; the BRICS is photo op for leaders and shake hand with each other.

It may take ten years when a few of the things are sorted out!