Why can't India do a US to the likes of Dawood, Saeed?

Discussion in 'Internal Security' started by chex3009, May 3, 2011.

  1. chex3009

    chex3009 Regular Member

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    Why can't India do a US to the likes of Dawood, Saeed?

    NEW DELHI: If the US can take out Osama bin Laden, why can't India do the same with Dawood Ibrahim, Hafeez Saeed and others of their ilk? For starters, lack of political will, essentially due to the fear of an escalation with a nuclear-armed Pakistan.

    But even if the traditionally risk-averse political leadership did decide that enough is enough, India simply does not have the wherewithal to execute back ops. This is truer in terms of intelligence and planning, rather than the capability of special forces themselves.

    Moreover, Pakistan is not a country with rag-tag armed forces. Any move to insert and later extract special forces deep inside Pakistan through helicopters, like the US did to eliminate Osama, will have to contend with robust air defence networks and combat air patrols geared to shoot down "enemy" aircraft.

    With military bases, logistics, over-flight facilities and ongoing operations in Pakistan, the US faced no such hurdles. In the India-Pakistan context, it would be tantamount to declaration of war. A "surgical strike" would, in all probability, lead to a war-like situation, with Pakistan always being over-eager to brandish its nuclear weapons.

    But let's take intelligence first. Indian intelligence agencies like RAW and IB suffer from several serious lacunae that prevent them from generating and sustaining credible intelligence on high-value targets within Pakistan.

    A former senior intelligence official, for instance, admitted that they were never able to gather specific details of all the anti-India terrorist-training camps that they have claimed exist in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This absence of "real-time" intelligence, with exact coordinates, was one of the reasons that came in the way of an aerial strike by IAF fighters after the horrific 26/11 Mumbai attacks.

    India, as yet, also does not have high-tech surveillance tools used by the US, which can pick up even match-boxes on the ground through satellites, or for that matter combat drones like Predators controlled from thousands of miles away.

    Another officer pointed out that Indian intelligence lacked the kind of discipline the US agencies had, especially on cultivating and sustaining sources. "Every source cultivated by an US intelligence operative is accounted for, and is verifiable," he explained. Conversely, in the Indian system, "there are far too many loopholes" and most of the intelligence flow is "hampered by vested interests and inabilities of individual operatives". In fact, he said, that is one reason why many of them are in favour of parliamentary accountability, which would help improve the intelligence set-up.

    While Indian intelligence operatives have carried out successful operations in places like Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar to target Indian terrorists, the record of surgical strikes deep inside Pakistan is virtually non-existent. Indian special forces, on their part, are well trained, capable of giving others a run for their money. The problem, however, lies in the fact that they have for long largely been treated as adjuncts to regular troops, restricted more to the tactical arena rather than being considered strategic assets to be used sparingly but with decisive effect.

    Moreover, it's only now that India is slowly strengthening its "irregular" or "unconventional" warfare arm by modernizing the special forces of Army (Para-SF), Navy (Marcos) and IAF (Garuds) with specialized equipment to undertake covert missions deep behind enemy lines and hit high-value targets with precision.

    Much more needs to be done. The crying need is for a tri-Service Special Forces Command, tasked with planning and executing clandestine warfare, on the lines of the Strategic Forces Command, which deals with nuclear weapons.

    The around 10,000 personnel of Para-SF, marine commandos and Garud need to function under one umbrella, not in isolation as they currently do. "They should come under one command and control authority, with direct access to the PMO and a separate budget," a senior officer said.

    "The stress should be on quality, not quantity. Special forces should be used to apply calibrated pressure at the strategic level, with plausible deniability if required, and not be reduced to some kind of super-infantry," he added.

    Report : Times of India
     
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  3. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Eastern Pakistan is heavily defended as compared to Western Pakistan. We don't have the diplomatic capability or the military capability to pull off such a big operation without major repercussions.

    We are not ready for all this as of today.
     
  4. chex3009

    chex3009 Regular Member

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    IAF chief on record has stated that "India has got the capability" after being asked questions regarding OBL's killing.
     
  5. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    We can't do a US because we don't pay billions of dollars to pak, we don't supply them weapons for free, and because we are not US.

    We have the wherewithal to carry out such a raid but that will invite an immediate escalation to a full fledged war which most people are scared that it will result in a nuclear exchange. Pakistan can't to squat to the US and has to shut up and put up.
     
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Addin to my previous post,
    However we can do a Mosaad by tracking and eliminating them with poison or something like that.
     
  7. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    They'd first prefer starting a war rather than seeing Indian forces cross the border for any damn reason.
    If that is not feasible they'd prefer getting murdered by Americans or Martians before their naked eyes face the torture of ...... seeing Indian forces cross the border for any damn reason.
    Plus, we don't have the required clout internationally to do a surgical op like this and come out clean with no pressure/criticism/diplomatic fallout from anywhere.

    Yusuf we'll need covert assets in Af-Pak to execute such missions. AFAIK, they were disabled in 90s. Or are you counting on Balochs etc ?

    Regards,
    Virendra
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2011
  8. Rahul92

    Rahul92 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think a secret operation such as sending some spies
     
  9. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    irrelevant
    Sending in 2 choppers with 25 Marcos, PARA SF on board ? - NOT possible.

    Sending in RAW Hitmen (if there was one such) to individually take out targets in a covert way - Definitely possible given the language and physical similarity between the Indian Punjabis,Himachalis,Haryanvis to those in Pak.

    But for the second option - the most important ingredient is a think called SPINE, which sadly our political establishment lacks.

    So the third option - finance 'less hostile dons' like Chotta Rajan to take out the likes of Dawood Ibrahim etc.
     
  10. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Quite simple because we have a land border.

    The yanks wouldn't have done it with border sharing country with nukes either. They know pakiis dont have the range to do anything.
     
  11. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    More than land boundary, I think its about the relative potential capacity of damaging when pitted against each other.
    Americans didn't need a land border to bring Japanese into submission in WW II.


    Regards,
    Virendra
     
  12. natarajan

    natarajan Senior Member Senior Member

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    i dont know what to say to your speculation,first let our govenment gets courage to hang kasab and another guy in parliament case.Usa has the will to hang even sadam hussain but our damn government still feeding kasab with briyanis and urdu papers at the cost of tax payers.If bjp raises this issue ,they will say muslim blah blah etc
    Let them hang all these stupid guys and think about operation like this.
    We can dream but not like this
     
  13. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Wall Street Journal:What If India Raided Pakistan?

    India’s prime minister greets the Mi-25 helicopters carrying Indian Navy MARCOS commandos. He shakes hands with the returning troops, congratulates and thanks them. For the photographers, he holds up his thumbs, “Mission Accomplished”-style. The MARCOS are returning from Pakistan where they took out some of India’s, and the world’s, most wanted terrorists.

    That was the story that didn’t happen yesterday or the week before or the month before or the year before or the decade before that. It’s the story that some, perhaps many, Indians have wished to read. It hasn’t happened but the chances of it happening have gone up slightly.

    According to the Indian government, 19 terrorists wanted by India reside in Pakistan. Maybe it’s only 10, maybe only five. But they’re there. Some live out in the open and give public speeches. One reportedly has an opulent house in Karachi.

    For over two decades, India has warned the world of the dangers of terrorism coming from Pakistan. First, it was the nuclear network of A.Q. Khan who conspired with the world’s worst leaders, from Libya’s Gadhafi to North Korea’s Kim Il Sung. No-one listened until it was too late. Pakistani technology helped North Korea build out its nuclear program. Thankfully, Libya was stopped in time.

    Then came the attack against the U.S. on 9/11. Indian officials pointedly suggested that there was a Pakistan link. The U.S. led an invasion of Afghanistan but soon its attention turned to Iraq. In the meantime, India suffered multiple terrorist attacks. There was the attack on Indian Parliament, the citadel of Indian democracy, the attack on shopping centers in Jaipur and Delhi, the attack in Varanasi, multiple attacks in Mumbai.

    Then 11/26 occurred and 10 Pakistanis orchestrated an audacious attack against the civilian population of India’s financial and commercial hub. In nearly every Indian terrorist attack, India saw the hand of Pakistan. Pakistan denied it, in nearly every circumstance. In all cases, India exhibited restraint.

    There are several reasons that India hasn’t conducted any cross-border raids on Pakistani terror camps, but one of them has been the American search for Osama bin Laden and the fear that an Indian strike would interfere with the hunt.

    Now, Bin Laden is dead. India’s 19 most wanted terrorists are still alive and wanted – mostly likely in Pakistan. The U.S. will wind down from Afghanistan at some point in the near future. America is frustrated with its frenemy and with bin Laden dead, it may hasten its departure from the region.

    The irony of Bin Laden’s death is that South Asia may have just become a more dangerous place. Pakistan’s military establishment shows no sign of giving up on terror as a state policy. India’s frustration only grows. Home Minister P. Chidambaram’s statement yesterday amounted to a “we told you so.” The Prime Minister has said that all terrorist activities from Pakistan must end. Given that Osama was found, as we all know now, in a garrison town, next to the Pakistani military academy and the homes of countless retired Pakistani military men, it’s tough to see Pakistan complying.

    The next terrorist attack in India will bring a chorus of calls in India for American-style action. The scenario at top may become real. The true question comes next, what will Pakistan do? In the American attack, Pakistan did nothing. In the Indian case, it’s unlikely to sit idly by.

    Indian planners have surely taken into account Pakistani reaction to any action. Pakistan is far from the U.S., India and Pakistan are neighbors, we can’t leave the neighborhood. Still, any Indian government will come under significant public pressure from the public following any new attack on Indian soil.

    India will do something, potentially something similar to the above scenario. Limited war, perhaps, follows the Indian action. Perhaps, it’s full-on war. But how long will the Indian public wait after the next attack on Indian soil?

    Those wishing for a show of Indian military muscle may just get it. The question then is what happens next? Osama’s death is a good thing, but it just may have made the subcontinent a little less safe.
     
  14. chex3009

    chex3009 Regular Member

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    Thats very true, and we should be prepared and not caught for wanting more intelligence in the aftermath of 26/11 where we didn't had human intelligence for pin-point strikes against the terror camps across the border in PoK.
     
  15. Dark_Prince

    Dark_Prince Regular Member

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    With gut-less corrupt CON-gress at the center, we can never see such action, as that would impede their looting spree and would block all the money they are swindling into swiss bank counts, more than that this shameless party members ruled by foreigners will fear for their lives as seen in the past! True tragedy that India has been ruled by these scoundrels for more than 55 years; and our PM MMS is a joke of the century while he pleads that he is honest and only gives his signatures for all the corrupt deals on his table and performs his Coalition dharma, truly a shameless person.
     
  16. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    @natarajan

    hang kasab and another guy in parliament
    Both are on death row, and Kasab in particular is more important alive atleast for now to provide intelligence info. Besides the Judiciary has blocked death row effectively since 2005.


    Usa has the will to hang even sadam hussain
    The Iraqi govt. hanged Saddam Hussain. The hanging was ordered by an Iraqi court for crimes against humanity where shias had been killed. Saddam was in custody of the Iraqi govt. which was majority shia and wanted him hanged straightaway even though the Americans wanted to delay the execution for a few days while important info was gathered. This is despite the fact that majority Americans, including Sarah Palin think Saddam was behind 9/11 which was ofcourse not true.
    And despite Saddam's brutality against the shias, looking at purely Indian interests, he was still a close ally of India with close military to military relationship with Iraqi officers being trained in India and Indian officers being stationed in Iraq, strong support on Kashmir and nuclear tests in 1998, intelligence co-operation as long back as 92 around Kashmir and the 93 mumbai attacks (according to B Raman) and so on. Even the NDA govt. hosted Iraq vice president around 2000 to build up a partnership despite the sanctions. No other country in that region had supported India so strongly for so many years.

    government still feeding kasab with briyanis and urdu papers
    No correct, check out the sources below The Hindu and Indian Express respectively denying the Biryani and newspaper conspiracy theories.

    and
    26/11 trial: Court denies newspaper to Kasab

    If bjp raises this issue ,they will say muslim blah blah
    And give me one source where BJP raised this issue and the government played the muslim card to deny hanging Afzal Guru or Kasab? Or is that also a sub-text unspoken thing?

    Let them hang all these stupid guys and think about operation like this.
    We can dream but not like this

    And even if all the above were corrected as you suggest, it would still not prove the operational or strategic capability of India to conduct an OBL type assasination. But what is more important is that we need to analyse objectively and stop coming up with conspiracy type excuses on what the govt. did or didn't do.
     
  17. debasree

    debasree Regular Member

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    simple answer we dont have the millitary capability & political will like us
     
  18. gogbot

    gogbot Regular Member

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    There is a very simple reason for this ,
    Even if we did launch some sort of attack , any kind for that matter. Those may be Missile strikes , Bombing or even cross border raids(Our troops are trained for these operations)

    GoI will not do them for a very key reason , how it would all look if the operation went sideways.

    The Fallout would be catastrophic and nearly impossible to fix.
    These missions are so risky that they have higher chance of going wrong then working out as planned.

    Heck none of us would like the consequences of failed attempt ,
    The consequence of a flag operation leading to heavy civilian casualties.

    We don't even have UCAV's yet to mitigate some of the risks ,
    Well unless this is why we purchased those Harop drones(which do have range of 1000km).

    Regardless if you want to know why India does not conduct these operations , it revolves our inability to handle the likelihood of botched operations.
    ]
     
  19. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    we dont have guts


    fact is that no one want to die we want live wth shame but dont want die with pride

    i mean no one
     
  20. amitkriit

    amitkriit Senior Member Senior Member

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    Mad men in Pakistan cannot hit USA even if they want to, they can hit us. I think war is not an option, yet. India is not USA, we cannot afford the cost.
     
  21. Param

    Param Senior Member Senior Member

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    I don't think it is about cost. I think our intelligence agencies do not have much offensive capability or people in Pakistan.How much would it cost to plant a bomb and detonate it in a place frequented by Dawood.
    You need not send commandos, how about such subversive operations to eliminate a few of India's most wanted in Pakistan.
    But ultimately it is a lack of political will.
     

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