What Now for China’s Afghanistan Strategy?

Discussion in 'Afghanistan' started by Neo, Sep 2, 2015.

  1. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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    What Now for China’s Afghanistan Strategy?


    Despite the blow to peace talks with the Taliban, China is unlikely to change its approach to Afghanistan or Pakistan.
    By Andrew Small
    September 01, 2015

    The events following Mullah Omar’s death represent a setback for Chinese policy in Afghanistan. The indefinite postponement of reconciliation talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, the bloody series of attacks mounted in Kabul by the Taliban’s new leadership, and the subsequent breakdown of President Ashraf Ghani’s outreach to Pakistan are blows to a peace process that Beijing had worked hard to shepherd along.

    Along with advances in northern Afghanistan by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) — the principal host for Uyghur militants in the region — and the Taliban’s own battlefield successes, the strategic situation for China appears to be moving in an adverse direction. Beijing’s longstanding concern that Afghanistan might become a safe haven for “East Turkestan terrorists” is now coupled with worries about the dangers that instability there could pose to Beijing’s various Silk Road economic schemes, particularly in Central Asia and Pakistan. Despite speculation that these might be imperiled by China’s current economic frailty, this multi-trillion-dollar bonanza for Chinese industry is, if anything, only rendered more important.

    An inevitable question, therefore, is whether Beijing can be expected to lean on its all-weather friend, Pakistan, to take action against the Taliban. For all that the Afghan government would like China to step up its direct bilateral economic and security support, it is Beijing’s leverage over Islamabad that they see as its most valuable asset. China played an important role in encouraging Pakistan to bring a reluctant Taliban to the table for the peace talks in Murree. And since the Kabul attacks, the Afghan government has sought Chinese assistance in pressing Pakistan to take the actions demanded in its “non-paper”, such as denying sanctuary and passage to Taliban fighters.

    Beijing is well aware that Ghani’s Pakistan opening left him out on a political limb. In the absence of deliverables, relations between Islamabad and Kabul are heading into a phase that risks being characterized by “freeze, deep freeze, or hostility,” in Ghani’s words. China has sympathy for the Afghan government’s position, and is certainly concerned to help keep its relationship with Pakistan from breaking down further. But while Kabul’s previous efforts to leverage Beijing’s position of influence in Islamabad were relatively successful, it is now running into the limits of what China is willing to do.

    Beijing is cautious about its own relationship with the Taliban. In meetings with its representatives, China has sought to persuade them that a peace deal will be in their interests, but also to keep the two sides’ longstanding ties in good working order. Beijing continues to see the Taliban as a political force that it needs to deal with, and is wary about turning them into enemies. Encouraging Pakistan to twist arms to get the Taliban into peace talks was one thing — any perception that they were pushing Pakistan to take more decisive action against the group would be quite another. The backlash China faced after it was blamed for instigating the Pakistani government’s assault on the Red Mosque in 2007 is a cautionary tale that still resonates with Chinese officials.

    But it is not just fear of getting on the wrong side of the Taliban that is holding China back. The ISI’s current attempts to help consolidate the position of the Taliban’s new leader, Mullah Mansour, are fully in line with China’s view of its own interests. Beijing does not want to see the Taliban fractured, operating under the control of opponents of reconciliation talks, or actively hostile to Pakistan. China sees the maintenance of a relatively coherent Taliban movement as a necessary evil if a political deal in Afghanistan is ever going to be reached, and if its own arrangements with the group are to remain intact. The internal tensions that have roiled the Taliban in recent weeks are partly a product of their involvement in the Murree talks, and Pakistani pressure to bring them to the table. Having delivered on its promise to get them in the room, Beijing is now likely to leave the ISI with the time and space to deal with the resulting fallout.

    Mullah Mansour may never have Mullah Omar’s authority, but if the Taliban can be broadly unified behind a figure close to the Pakistanis and willing to approve peace talks — in principle, if not currently in practice — this is about the most that China could currently hope for. Conversely, a scenario in which the Pakistani government decided to turn on the Afghan Taliban (not that this is on the cards) would pose serious risks for the security situation in Pakistan, and likely make China itself into a target too. Beijing has already gone through eight years of this experience with the Pakistani Taliban. And with the rise of forces such as the Islamic State that are explicitly hostile to China, a cohesive Taliban under Pakistan’s continued influence looks like a safer bet.

    In the end, despite the serious hits that the prospects for peace have taken in recent weeks, China still believes that a negotiated political settlement in Afghanistan is the only viable solution. Beijing will expect Pakistan, in due course, to do its part to facilitate it. If the Afghan government were facing an immediate, existential security crisis, China’s stance might look different but, although the Afghan National Security Forces have faced a worryingly high attrition rate this year, they continue to hold their own, and there is no looming prospect of the Taliban “victory” that Beijing would certainly not want to see. For now then, China is trying to hold together its existing strategy in Afghanistan rather than embarking on a new one. However unpalatable it might seem in Kabul as civilian casualties reach record highs, that will mean Beijing giving the Pakistanis time, not turning the screw on them.

    Andrew Small is a transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Asia program and the author of the book The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics.


    http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/what-now-for-chinas-afghanistan-strategy/
     
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  3. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

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    Poor Afghans. After Afghanistan pushed out the Soviets, for a moment it looked like they would have a chance at a stable government. Then multiple foreign powers pushed money and weapons into their pet factions and it became a massive multi-sided civil war. It seems there are so many powerful foreign players and factions rising again.
     
  4. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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    Indeed, poor Afghans. Imho they should make peace with the Taliban and recognise them as a political party. As long as they keep decided politicaly and ethnicaly they'll remain a proxy of foreign powers.
     
  5. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Why don't you sell or lease kpk province to Chinese , to save ur self from afghans

    It wil help to save ur soldiers from everyday killing on borders
     
  6. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    China Delivers First Batch of Military Aid to Afghanistan
    VOA Monday 4th July, 2016

    [​IMG]
    ISLAMABAD - Afghanistan has received its first batch of Chinese military equipment as part of Beijing's commitment to provide millions of dollars of assistance to help Kabul fight terrorism.

    The shipment on board a Russian cargo plane arrived Sunday in Kabul where Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing handed it over to Afghan National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar.

    The cargo apparently contained among other things logistical equipment, parts of military vehicles, ammunition and weapons for the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF).

    Jing said Beijing wants to have regular and normal state-to-state relations with the Afghan government and the Afghan people, which includes military cooperation.

    "Afghanistan is our close neighbor and a very important neighbor to Chinahellip; So, this is the beginning of our regular military-to-military exchanges and cooperation," Jing said.

    Atmar declined to discuss further details or value of the Chinese equipment, saying such military matters required secrecy. He said the assistance shows a joint resolve against terrorism facing Afghanistan and China.

    "The military aid is just the beginning of our joint struggle against terrorism. I consider it a major change in China's relations towards Afghanistan that China is standing with the Afghan people in the counterterrorism fight," Atmar noted.

    He said that a next shipment due later this year is expected to include more military equipment along with scanners for Afghanpolice to enable them to detect bombs such as vehicle-born improvised explosives devices. Afghan officials plan to install the scanners at four entry points to Kabul.

    "Both China and Afghanistan, we don't have any ambitions ... But we do have our own duty to safeguard our own peace and the sovereignty. So, in this regard China and Afghanistan are on the same front. We will fight together," Jing resolved.

    China is also part of a Quadrilateral Cooperation Group or QCG, which also includes Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States, working to bring about a peaceful end to the Afghan conflict. But the four-nation process has been unable to start peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

    The increased Chinese involvement in the conflict-torn Afghanistan, critics believe, stems from concerns thatcontinued instability in itsimmediate neighborhood could fuel problems in the far western Xinjiang region where Uighur Muslims are waging a low-level separatist insurgency against Chinese rule.

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  7. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    While supporting the biggest terrorist nation in the world. This is hilarious. :pound::pound::pound::pound:
     
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  8. Mikesingh

    Mikesingh Senior Member Senior Member

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    This is last years article! Mullah Mansour is dead as a dodo! So now the equations have changed completely in Afghanistan as he does not have the influence and power of his predecessor, Mullah Omar.

    International relations are a bitch! Here the Pakis are arming and providing safe havens to the Taliban from American funds to fight the Afghan Army and US troops and there we have the Chinese arming the Afghan Army to fight the Taliban! Lol!

    I wonder what the Pakis have to say to this conflict of interest? But since the Pakis are Chinese boot-lickers, they'll just STFU while fuming from the inside! After all, they can't afford to ruffle Chinese feathers, can they? They are the only 'friends' they have in the whole wide world! :tongue:
     
  9. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Pak, Afghan, China, Tajik armies launch anti-terror group
    August 03, 2016, 11:26 pm
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    NNI

    ISLAMABAD: Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and Tajikistan on Wednesday launched Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism in Urumqi China to counter terrorism, the ISPR said on Wednesday.

    The inaugural high level leader meeting on Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism in counter terrorism by Afghanistan-China-Pakistan-Tajikistan armed forces/militaries (the mechanism herein after referred to as the QCCM) was held in Urumqi, Xingjian Uygur autonomous region, China, a statement said.

    Those attended the ceremony include Qadam Shah Shahim, CGS Afghan National Army, General Fang Fenghui, Chief of Joint Staff Department of Central Military Commission (CMC), General Raheel Sharif, COAS Pakistan Army and Major General EA Cobidrzoda, First Deputy Defence Minister and CGS Tajikistan armed forces.

    The participants unanimously agreed that terrorism and extremism are serious threat to regional stability and they fully appreciate the unremitting efforts taken by the militaries of the four countries against the forces of terrorism and extremism. They reiterated to cooperate for tackling these forces for peace and stability of all member countries.

    It was agreed to establish the QCCM to coordinate and provide mutual support limited to four countries only in the fields of counter terrorism situation evaluation, clue verification, intelligence sharing, counter terrorism capacity building, counter terrorism joint training exercises and personnel training. It was also agreed that all decisions reached by the QCCM would be based on mutual consultation and consensus.

    The parties agreed that the QCCM should adhere to the principles of UN charter and other universally recognized principles and norms of international law, especially those on maintaining peace and security, safe guarding independence and equality with mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. It was emphasized that formation of the QCCM was not targeted against any other state or international organization.


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    QCCM leaders also witnessed counter-terrorism exercise in Korla, a training base of People Liberation Army. “Exercise encompassed an effective neutralisation of a terrorists’ base in a remote mountainous region employing all the modern aerial and ground equipment and gadgets,” the military’s media wing said.

    [​IMG]
    General Fang Fenghui (2nd L), member of China's Central Military Commission (CMC) and chief of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC, holds talks with General Qadam Shah Shahim (2nd R), Chief of General Staff of the Afghan National Army in Urumqi, capital of China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, on August 2, 2016. (mod.gov.cn/ Liu Xiaowei)
     
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  10. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Re: Pak, Afghan, China, Tajik armies launch anti-terror group
    Nice, but there's a weed inside the group which only strikes "Bad Terror"(terrorists harming pakistan).
    Rest of terrorists who attack other countries are good, halal and in fact angels from jannat e wahab.:)
     

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