U.S base in Guam a major threat to China

[roma]

Chinese navy would not be able to get out of South China seas there are bases
surrounding the Chinese coastline in neighboring countries.

usa need to take the ccpchina threat more seriously it seems to me that they are more interested in investing in china industries than understanding the strategic threat from ccpchina

There also eleven aircraft carriers with nearly a 1000 planes.

that is a great move and we need that to be maintained . eleven is a good number , keep it up .

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/05/south-china-sea-dangerous-contest-military-united-states-navy/
The south China sea could become a dangerous military might contest

i feel that the usa has concentrated more on the northern areas of china , korea and japan and seems to have been given the slip by ccpchina on the south china area .....do not underestimate ccpchina strategic ability ,. they are probably among the very best in the world , far ahead of india and sometimes even ahead of the usa ....they challenged the usa in Korea , vietnam and now the SCS

TLAMs don't even have the range to hit China from Guam. It is 3500km from Guam to Guangzhou so forget about it. The only threat is a forward base for the 7th Fleet. It is a good location being much closer than Hawaii and out of the range of China's projection power unlike Japan or Korea. It would cost $6.5 billion to build a port for carriers on Guam. I find that prohibitively expensive since there are countries that can base them with existing facilities and are happy to do so. There are advantages to clustering into a mega base, but then it is much more vulnerable to a nuclear strike with so many assets in one place.

yes i agree with your analysis ..... the only way is to get back the based in the philippines , it will be tough given that they were asked to leave in the past ....and this tie the phils will probably be asked to carry a heavier burden financially ....i think india will have a role to play here in selling the phils naval vessels which cost less than those fro the usa and train the phils in how to operate those vessels

the usa must maintain the 11 A/C's they are currently operating and this could be cheaper than having naval bases in the asean countries with all the possible objections from them ......after all an A/C is like a floating piece of your homeland

Guam is too far from china although it is better than Hawaii and better than not having it but A/C's and nuke powered subs isprbably the better way to go ,...would cost less in teh long run and avoid all the inter.-nation politics that got usa bases kicked out of the phils in the first place .
ref
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[blueblood]

@roma and others.

US takes CCP more seriously than they let you believe. Their MIC depends on an evil axis. Jihadis, Mujs and ISIS while good are not enough to sustain a $700 billion defence budget.

And no I am not suggesting 9-11 was an inside job but MIC milked it and now US spends additional $200 billion on Homeland Security.

1) America-class amphibious assault ship
Wasp-class amphibious assault ship

Don't be fooled by their names. They are aircraft carriers. So the number is not 11 carriers but 11 Super-carriers and others.

2) If getting disproportionate number of troops killed to achieve Pyrrhic victories is your definition of good then you are Chinese commie. Their Generals were shitting bricks when USAF bitch slapped the then world's fourth or fifth largest, ill trained and outdated air-force in 1991.

3) It is very difficult to sustain naval operations if you don't have any operational bases left. One of the many things that US gave to this world is cruise missile operations. Showering enemy's bases with enough cruise missiles to overwhelm the air defence and rendering the infrastructure crippled.

Now a 50 cent troll will come running with the ultimate weapon gifted to humanity by the Communist god (Mao was his prophet), carrier killer AshBM.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-86_ALCM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_B-2_Spirit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio-class_submarine#SSBN.2FSSGN_conversions

3) Only thing that matters today in US-China scenario is air superiority. If F-35 turns out as planned in the next decade then China is still 30-40 years away from effectively countering USAF and USN. The one thing that will never happen in the foreseeable future is US boots on China's soil.

 

[pmaitra]

@blueblood and @roma,

Under Mao, PRC was able to afford to commit millions of troops, but after years of family planning, PRC will not be able to do that. PRC has long shifted the focus of using technology over large volumes of soldiers to win conflicts.

 

[marrakesh]

@roma and others.

Spoiler

US takes CCP more seriously than they let you believe. Their MIC depends on an evil axis. Jihadis, Mujs and ISIS while good are not enough to sustain a $700 billion defence budget.

And no I am not suggesting 9-11 was an inside job but MIC milked it and now US spends additional $200 billion on Homeland Security.

1) America-class amphibious assault ship
Wasp-class amphibious assault ship

Don't be fooled by their names. They are aircraft carriers. So the number is not 11 carriers but 11 Super-carriers and others.

2) If getting disproportionate number of troops killed to achieve Pyrrhic victories is your definition of good then you are Chinese commie. Their Generals were shitting bricks when USAF bitch slapped the then world's fourth or fifth largest, ill trained and outdated air-force in 1991.

3) It is very difficult to sustain naval operations if you don't have any operational bases left. One of the many things that US gave to this world is cruise missile operations. Showering enemy's bases with enough cruise missiles to overwhelm the air defence and rendering the infrastructure crippled.

Now a 50 cent troll will come running with the ultimate weapon gifted to humanity by the Communist god (Mao was his prophet), carrier killer AshBM.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-86_ALCM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_B-2_Spirit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio-class_submarine#SSBN.2FSSGN_conversions

3) Only thing that matters today in US-China scenario is air superiority. If F-35 turns out as planned in the next decade then China is still 30-40 years away from effectively countering USAF and USN. The one thing that will never happen in the foreseeable future is US boots on China's soil.

Impossible.
Strategically, China is sheltered by Russian nuclear umbrella.

 

[amoy]

The most heartening update is several Chinese "Diego Garcias" or "Guams" are rising from the shallows at God speed -

 

[blueblood]

@blueblood and @roma,

Under Mao, PRC was able to afford to commit millions of troops, but after years of family planning, PRC will not be able to do that. PRC has long shifted the focus of using technology over large volumes of soldiers to win conflicts.

No body need a huge army anyways so nothing unique there. You realize that despite China has become the second nation to test hypersonic glide tech, its armour comprises mostly of upgraded T-55s and around 600 of its fighters qualify for the "4th gen" definition, half of its inventory.

As for the CCP and the people's war bullshit.

Sir Arthur Travers Harris, 1st Baronet after bombing Dresden

"I do not personally regard the whole of the remaining cities of Germany as worth the bones of one British Grenadier".

Impossible.
Strategically, China is sheltered by Russian nuclear umbrella.

1) No its not.

2) It has a "nuclear umbrella" of its own, for quite sometime if I may add.

3) NFU states (theoritically) that the conflict will go nuclear only on enemy's account.

4) Apart from nuclear Pakistan and nuclear NK nobody threatens a nuclear war. China is one of the big boys they can handle themselves.

 

[Rowdy]

the usa must maintain the 11 A/C's they are currently operating and this could be cheaper than having naval bases in the asean countries with all the possible objections from them ......after all an A/C is like a floating piece of your homeland

Not exactly.
A/C need a lot of maintenance and only the new Gerald R Ford class EMALS offer real advantages that you state. Also having a fleet docked at a base is cheaper than A/C fleet petrol. Ofcourse initial costs are high but from a long term perspective it's worth it.

ould cost less in teh long run and avoid all the inter.-nation politics that got usa bases kicked out of the phils in the first place .

Well internation politics boils down to who will resist US. Only china/russia will make noises and US will ignore them.

 

[Zebra]

Impossible.
Strategically, China is sheltered by Russian nuclear umbrella.

Either something is wrong in that statement or it proves Chinese weakness.

 

[sorcerer]

Impossible.
Strategically, China is sheltered by Russian nuclear umbrella.

China is sheltered by Russian nuclear Umbrella?
From when?
Tho China and Russia is seen dancing together these days doesnt mean theres a deep strategic understanding on defense commits.
Cuz for now..Russia is more economically economic to China.

 

[marrakesh]

China is sheltered by Russian nuclear Umbrella?
From when?

From July 16, 2001

Tho China and Russia is seen dancing together these days doesnt mean theres a deep strategic understanding on defense commits.
Cuz for now..Russia is more economically economic to China.

China can destroy US economically, Russia can destroy US military.
Only Russia have significant amount of nuclear warheads and carriers, China haven't. But China have economic and human resource.
This isn't Union, this is cooperation.

 

[marrakesh]

Either something is wrong in that statement or it proves Chinese weakness.

Sir, find the amount and range of China carriers of nuclear warheads

 

[sorcerer]

From July 16, 2001

.

Err..
I think you have wrong information

On December 12, however, the Washington Times reported that China had turned the tables and opened a nuclear umbrella of its own. In early December, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a bilateral treaty and issued a joint statement that said “China pledges unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against the nuclear-free Ukraine and China further pledges to provide Ukraine nuclear security guarantee when Ukraine encounters an invasion involving nuclear weapons or Ukraine is under threat of a nuclear invasion.”

http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/chinas-nuclear-parasol/

MEaning...in the Ukraine screwup... China interest is against that of Russia when it comes to a nuke skirmish.

Logically Russian nuke umbrella for China doesn’t stand in the first place.
If you could provide a source for your claim..that would be a good read!

 

[anupamsurey]

Diego Gracia and Guam are definitely strategically important for USA but they are far away from China.
i think Aircraft carrirers and some fleet near SCS will be more important in this regard. Bases in Japan or somewhere in South east Asia will also suffice the work.

 

[marrakesh]

Err..
I think you have wrong information
http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/chinas-nuclear-parasol/
MEaning...in the Ukraine screwup... China interest is against that of Russia when it comes to a nuke skirmish.
Logically Russian nuke umbrella for China doesn’t stand in the first place.
If you could provide a source for your claim..that would be a good read!

:biggrin2: If I could provide real source, I would have sawed wood in Siberia :biggrin2:
All been said above is my analysis.

 

[jouni]

From July 16, 2001


China can destroy US economically, Russia can destroy US military.
Only Russia have significant amount of nuclear warheads and carriers, China haven't. But China have economic and human resource.
This isn't Union, this is cooperation.

This loose talk about use of nuclear is really worrying. You sound like North Korea.

 

[marrakesh]

This loose talk about use of nuclear is really worrying. You sound like North Korea.

Scary? :biggrin2:
I'm former military and this is normal for me.

 

[sorcerer]

usa need to take the ccpchina threat more seriously it seems to me that they are more interested in investing in china industries than understanding the strategic threat from ccpchina

They are also investing a lot in creating an asymmetric situation for China.

In a few years we can see local skirmishes formulated clearly on various societal divides around Chinese borders
Its easy for big countries like China to IMPLODE under its own weight.
The flanking by USA will be just to contain and encircle the conflict zone while their strategy implodes on the inside of the enemy borders.

The chronological events shows so.

China is trying to run before they can walk. They have huge ambitions but lack certain serious depth. Their incompetence is seen in many theaters of operation.

US has a clear strategy to counter China and military strength will be a containment option rather than direct.

 

[jouni]

Scary? :biggrin2:
I'm former military and this is normal for me.

I was referring more to Russian politicians, they also talk about nuclear quite openly. I know it is more to Russian domestic audience: first presidency Putin could count on economic growth to get populatity, now he has to talk about outside enemies. Old trick but seems to work. I am just thinking that what is the end game for Russia? Are you risking similar economic stagnation as in eighties? Or collapse like in nineties?

I met last week a Russian guy who worked at Aeroflot ground crew, he said that their salaries have been halved....there is a lot bubbling under in Russia....

 

[Srinivas_K]

You may have gained some Islands which I doubt will do any good to China or that region. You lost the trust of entire ASEAN and countries located in that region.

The most heartening update is several Chinese "Diego Garcias" or "Guams" are rising from the shallows at God speed -

 

[sorcerer]

Nice islands!!
The cost of upkeep would cut into exchequer..Thanks to the challenging climate dynamics which could also be manipulated!!.

:thumb:

The US Military Tested a Tsunami Bomb That Could Rival the Nuclear Bomb
http://gizmodo.com/5973039/the-us-military-tested-a-tsunami-bomb-that-could-rival-the-nuclear-bomb

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread673758/pg1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Hardtack_I

http://www.documentingreality.com/forum/f239/man-made-tsunamis-discover-truth-123480/

The "worry" from the USA makes the Chinese more confident and aggressive in pursuit of wet dreams.

Nice..The Upkeep would generate lotsa employment opportunity for Chinese!