http://nsspi.tamu.edu/projects/p0/p0_pub5.pdf
4. URANIUM USE AND PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION ANALYSIS The primary source of weapon grade plutonium production is from two reactors: CIRUS and DHRUVA. The thermal power rating for CIRUS and DHRUVA is 40 and 100 MWth respectively. Since these reactors do not have a declared operational history, a capacity factor of 50% and 80% is assumed for CIRUS and DHRUVA respectively to compute plutonium estimates.
This predicts that the CIRUS reactor produces 9.6 kgs of weapon-grade plutonium per year using 10.5 tons of natural uranium fuel. DHRUVA, with a much shorter cycle of 67 days uses 6.35 tons of natural uranium as fuel and produces 5.53 kgs of weapon-grade plutonium per cycle. Considering a pragmatic situation of five core changes per year, DHRUVA can produce 28 kgs of plutonium per year. Calculations of these core fuels show that the total plutonium production of India by 1997 was 393 kgs after accounting for losses in reprocessing. Extrapolating the computations with similar assumptions and inputs, the plutonium reserves would have been 633.5 kgs by the year 2006. Table 1 shows a summary of the historical plutonium production by India.
http://www.indiaresearch.org/Indo-USStrategicDeal.pdf
Assessment
Let us look at facts to understand merit of this argument.
1. Indian strategic nuclear weapons use approximately 3 Kg Plutonium.
2. India has large un-safeguarded Plutonium stockpile (conservatively estimated to between
3,000 Kg and 6,000Kg), a fraction of that will suffice to make hundreds of nuclear weapons if
India choose to exercise the option.
3. Indian PHWR reactors that are outside IAEA safeguard when operated for efficient power
generation would have cumulatively required just 5,842 tonnes. India is estimated to have
mined about 9,200 tonnesI of natural-uranium, indicating that about 55%II of the fuel and 8%
of its reactor capacity was used in low fuel burn mode, generally associated with operating
the reactors in mode optimized to generate weapon grade Plutonium. This corresponds to
about 2,400Kg weapon grade Plutonium enough for 800 strategic nuclear weapon.
4. Current Indian reserves of uranium estimated between 77,500 – 94,000 metric tonnes,
enough to support 12,000 MWe power generation for 50 yearsIII.
5. Current Indian PHWR reactors that are outside IAEA safeguard annually require 116 tonnes
of natural-uranium when operated in a mode optimized for power generation. When
operated in a mode optimized to generate weapon-grade Plutonium they require just 747
tonnes of natural-uranium annually, in the process they generate 745 Kg weapon grade
Plutonium, which is enough for 248 nuclear weapons per year.
From above one can clearly see that there is no merit in the argument that US-India civilian
nuclear agreement will be of any consequence to Indian nuclear weapons programs.
Conclusion
In conclusion the Indo-US agreement on civil nuclear reactors does not help Indian military
program:
1. India already has fissile material enough to make more than 800 warheads.
2. Its Fast Breeder Reactors can generate limitless fissile material for weapons or civilian
applications.
Date: 02-May-2006 Author: Arun Sharma