South Korea wants longer range missiles...

Discussion in 'Indo Pacific & East Asia' started by black eagle, Jan 20, 2011.

  1. black eagle

    black eagle Senior Member Senior Member

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    Limits on Missiles Seriously Hamper S.Korea's Defense

    South Korean and U.S. officials have reportedly begun talks to revise a bilateral accord that limits the range of the South's ballistic missiles to 300 km and caps their payload capacity at 500 kg. The government says South Korea's ballistic missiles should have a range of at least 1,000 km and the payload ceiling should be lifted to 1 ton to bring all of North Korea within range from the southern coast. It remains to be seen whether the U.S. will accept the proposal.

    The geographical proximity and maintaining the balance with rival countries are the key considerations. North Korea has the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000 km as well as the Rodong missiles with a 1,300-km range. In 2009, it tested an intercontinental ballistic missile with an estimated range of more than 6,000 km

    U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently predicted that North Korea would within five years have an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. Under these circumstances limiting the range of South Korean missiles to just 300 km is tantamount to tying the South's hands behind its back in the face of a serious threat.

    The U.S. views the issue of increasing South Korea's missile arsenal from the global perspective of non-proliferation. But from Seoul's point of view it is vastly more important to deal effectively with the North Korean threat and adapt to the military situation in Northeast Asia. China has more than 40 ICBMs, while Japan can produce mid to long-range missiles any time, since it is already capable of launching a space rocket. If the limit remains, South Korea will be left out in the cold.

    South Korea's missiles would be no threat to other countries but a vital defense. Even with a range of 1,000 km, they would pose no serious threat to China or Japan.

    The U.S. will transfer full operational control of South Korean troops to Seoul at the end of 2014. Measures to boost the South's missile defense must be part of strengthening South Korea's military power ahead of the handover. The revision talks should focus on how South Korea can be given the basic tools needed to defend itself against North Korea's missile threat.

    http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/20/2011012001205.html
     
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  3. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    Why would US be limiting ROK missile limits? They should be happy if they can hit Beijing.
     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    What prevents SK from independently developing long range missiles? I don't think it needs US tech transfer that is prevented by MTCR. It can do it on its own.
     
  5. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Guys, anything of this sort would mean that SK and Japan both of who's foreign policy and thinking is based on USA, would move away from US and hence threaten their stay in east Asia. Japanese new government has already been disillusioned with US especially now during WOT when US economy is already trashed and is surviving because of Chinese loans. You think that even if US wanted to, it could help in a do-or-die war if Japan has to fight? For the first time in post-war Japanese history, the White Paper which limits Japanese arms exports, manufacturing etc was repealed and reconsidered. That has sent shockwaves in Pentagon.

    Now if SK also followed the suit, it means in a few years' time both SK and Japan would possible ally together (for the first time SK and Japanese governments held defence talks recently) and tell US to pack its bags as Japan is strong enough still to take on PLA should PLA go on DPRK's side in case of a North-South war.

    Now it only remains to be seen if US allows SK to get this. A refusal would mean the right wing nationalist Lee Myung-Bak government would further get disillusioned with US further. If US agrees and assists (secretly though not needed), then the alliance remains strong.
     
  6. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    If the US allows that to happen, then they will be violating MTCR ! Plus, I don't understand why they need to ask the US for developing an 1000 km range missile, if they feel they need it, they can build one on their own. They know that nobody is gonna sell them a 1000 km range missile.
     
  7. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    But the South Koreans are not fools to hit Beijing, they know they won't survive a day after that from a Chinese reprisal !
     
  8. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    self reliance would be key

    Regards,
    Virendra
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2011
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    There is speculation that India does have the capability (maybe a few untested prototypes?) of ICBM capable of reaching North America. Never seen any concrete report from any major news-channel or newspaper. South Korea could have long range missiles, even nukes, for deterrence without violating any of the international obligations in the lines of the N-Warhead Sharing Program (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing).
     
  10. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    how ong will Lee's government last? by SK constitution he can only serve one term. Then the opposition is very likely to take an upper hand and resume previous non confrontational line.
     
  11. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The US has warned China over North Korea.

    How much of clout does China have over NK?

    What will be the effect if China stops sending food?

    What does the Chinese common man feel about the sustenance being given by China to NK?
     
  12. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    IMO China's clout over NK is recovering since China and NK have repaired their alliance with mutual trust.

    There have been fluctuations in Sino-NK relationship. The schism started when Deng decided to establish diplomatic ties with SK in 1992, after fall of USSR, despite late Kim's pleas. Consequently NK felt further isolated and chose to leverage with nuke. Besides there were 'moles' among Beijing's high ranking Korea-related officials.

    Lee (Rightist) after taking power in SK, got very provocative, owing to miscalculation that NK was about to topple. Lee supposed NK may be in chaos after Kim's death so SK may take over NK overnight. Lee changed his predecessors' "reconciliation" approaches and even announced a plan to levy a "reunification tax".

    In fact it was SK (and US) who pushed NK and China to re-align. China and Russia gave evidences to the US that Cheonan was not sunken by NK. During Kim's visits in 2010 Kim proved to Beijing SK+US's "conspiracy". NK fought back SK's provocation by shelling Yeonpyeong. In a Chinese defence expert's words, NK's retaliation was the best answer to SK+US's aggression on Yellow Sea.

    Now NK has got out of economic crisis and its upcoming leadership (Kim's son) was appointed. China is intensifying eco. engagement with NK.

    Common Chinese (incl. myself) used to be under the impression that NK was an abhorrent dictatorship with full buy-in of SK's "propaganda". But nowadays people get more "discreet' and sober and see this whole thing no longer through prisms of "ideology" but in the light of "national interest" and security.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2011
  13. lurker

    lurker Regular Member

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    Which doesn't change that its an abhorrent dictatorship which brainwashes and starves its own people.

    If US pushed China-NK closer, China has done the same to US-SK-JP relations. Not only thats it done it with the other countries in the region too re: the US.
     
  14. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    20 years of Chinese diplomacy in North Korea has been a big failure for the region , or maybe it is a grand success to the Chinese??
     

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