Russia, China and Pakistan: An Emerging New Axis?

Discussion in 'Internal Security' started by LETHALFORCE, Aug 25, 2015.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2009
    Messages:
    21,135
    Likes Received:
    7,444
    http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/russia-china-and-pakistan-an-emerging-new-axis/

    [​IMG]
    Image Credit: Presidential Press and Information Office, Kremlin
    Russia, China and Pakistan: An Emerging New Axis?
    Regional realities are shifting fast, with some significant ramifications for India.

    In geopolitics, strategic realities can change with surprising speed, and even before countries realize it decisive shifts occur that shape the future for the years to come. That seems to be the case with traditional Cold War rivals Russia and Pakistan, which have of late seen a gradual warming of ties. Traditionally an ally of India and hitherto supportive of India’s stance on Kashmir, Russia has shown clear signs of cozying up to Pakistan.

    Having earlier lifted its self-imposed arms embargo on Pakistan, in November 2014 Russia signed a landmark “military cooperation” agreement with Pakistan, which spoke about “exchanging information on politico-military issues, strengthening collaboration in the defense and counter-terrorism sectors, sharing similar views on developments in Afghanistan and doing business with each other.” There have been reports that Pakistan may purchase Mi-35 combat helicopters apart from directly importing the Klimov RD-93 engines from Russia rather than via China for its JF-17 multi-role fighters. This could also mean a significant role for Russian equipment and spares in future development of the fighter. In addition, Russian state-owned firm Rostekh Corporation is planning to build a 680 mile gas pipeline in Pakistan in 2017 at an estimated cost of $2.5 billion.

    The mutual overtures between Russia and Pakistan are part of a greater shift in international relations. In Europe, Russia is embroiled in a showdown with the West over Ukraine, with Moscow’s military adventure in Crimea being followed by Western sanctions. In the Asia-Pacific, China’s encroachments in the South China Sea has inflamed tensions with other Asia-Pacific countries allied with the U.S. These developments have forced Russia and China to look for allies, which explains the bonhomie between the two powers of late. Some analysts question whether a partnership motivated by external factors could lead to an alliance of countries that formerly distrusted each other. But the old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” fits perfectly well here; the single most important factor that overrides all others is their concurrent perception of the U.S. and its “policy of containment” towards them. China needs allies to change the world order and it begins with Asia.

    The China-Pakistan link is well known and is the most formidable leg of the Russia-China-Pakistan triangle. China has been a traditional ally of Pakistan and has historically supported it against its arch rival India both in terms of military equipment and diplomacy. Chinese have been involved in building nuclear reactors for Pakistan; Pakistan is the largest importer of Chinese manufactured defense equipment, is involved in co-production and co-development of JF-17 fighter jets and now is slated to buy almost eight Chinese’s S20 or Yuan-class diesel-electric submarines (SSK). China has also significantly invested in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and in the Karakoram corridor. The imperative here is not just for China but for Pakistan as well. The burgeoning relationship between the U.S. and India, with their extensive trade ties and cooperation on strategic issues of mutual concern in the sphere of defense technology and equipment, does unnerve Pakistan from time to time. Since Pakistan’s failed misadventure in the Kargil heights, it has lost the support of successive U.S. administrations on the Kashmir issue and its own relationship with the U.S. has been rocky.

    It is from here that the congruence of interests between the three states of Pakistan, China and Russia stems. For China and Russia, the U.S. is an anathema, which must dethroned from its hegemonic position for their own security. Pakistan has enough of an incentive to be a willing partner in an Asian security architecture that is shaped by China. With India having diversified its military suppliers to include countries like the U.S. and Israel, Russia no longer sees any impediment to establishing a strategic relationship with Pakistan. In the future one could see signs of integration between the three states, as their abilities complement each other: Russia is an alternate source for Western military technology and energy supplier, China is economically more potent than the other two, with considerable foreign exchange reserves looking to invest and in need of energy supplies, Pakistan despite its structural problems is a growing economy with young population in need of both of both energy supplies and defense equipment. Already importing equipment from China, Pakistan will have access to Russian technology, which was in fact the source for many Chinese products as well. Sanctions-hit Russia will have a new market for its defense equipment, although this may well in the future see some competition between Russia and China. It is possible that Russia will continue to arm India along with China and now Pakistan. Both EU and US have followed the strategy of supplying defense equipment to both India and Pakistan. But Russia arming Pakistan is still significant because that implies that Russia will no longer give preferential treatment to its historical friend India.

    It is true India is still economically too big to be overlooked and Russia has an interest in preserving its relationship with India. But India has estranged security ties with China and Pakistan, and with Russia drawing ever closer to China, its divergence of interest with India in the world order it perceives is growing more apparent. The Russia-Pakistan-China triumvirate is a reality in the offing and has a far greater convergence of security objectives in Asia than a similar Russia-China-India grouping (also subsumed within BRICS). It is important to note here that the Chinese economy is visibly slowing and this could lead to some internal turmoil, the Russian economy may very well see further contraction, while that of Pakistan, albeit showing signs of improvement, is external aid dependent and beset by internal security concerns. Aggression on the part of this triumvirate to deflect attention from internal problems cannot be ruled out. The strategic ramifications will be for India as much as they will be the U.S. and other countries in the region. As the contours of the alliances in Asia harden, India will have to shed its reluctance to take a firmer stand in Asia and work more closely with the U.S. and Japan.

    Joy Mitra is post-graduate scholar of international relations from Jindal School of International Affairs and a researcher with Wikistrat.
     
  2.  
  3. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,871
    Likes Received:
    1,444
    Even though the theory is far fetched, it will result in the end of India's balancing game something neither Russia nor China is looking forward to. So, I for one am not going to lose any sleep over it.
     
  4. Cutting Edge 2

    Cutting Edge 2 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    417
    Likes Received:
    647
    Go ahead still dream about Pak Fa and FGFA. Relationship between Russia and China is no longer hidden, Their state run media is literally telling us in our face that Russia is now allies with China. Yet we still act like no big deal. Do you think Russia will allow India to use their tech against their most important ally? Times have changed this is not Russia from 1980's this is Putin's Russia.
    _______________________________________________

    Chinese-Russian 'Strategic Partnership Taking Shape of an Alliance'


    © Sputnik
    / Sergey Guneev

    12:22 12.05.2017(updated 12:23 12.05.2017)

    In an interview with Sputnik, Russian political analyst Sergey Sanakoyev focused on the current level of the Moscow-Beijing ties which he said is already starting to look like an alliance.

    [​IMG]

    Earlier this week, Russian Ambassador to China Andrey Denisov said that Russia's President Vladimir Putin will take an active part in the international One Belt, One Road forum which will be held in Beijing on May 14-15.

    For his part, Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to pay an official visit to Russia in early July, according to media reports.

    Speaking to Sputnik, Sergey Sanakoyev, head of the Russian-Chinese analytical center, specifically pointed to an "unprecedented level" of relations between Beijing and Moscow which he said is confirmed by regular meetings of the two countries' Presidents.

    "It is hardly possible to give an example of another two countries that would have such a strategic partnership like Russia and China. The meetings of the two countries' heads of state take place several times a year at a variety of venues. In the coming days, another meeting will be held," Sanakoyev said referring to Putin's participation in the One Belt, One Way forum.


    Mentioning an upcoming visit by the Chinese President to Russia, Sanakoev said that traditionally, similar visits come amid large-scale bilateral interaction on an intergovernmental basis.

    "Russia and China have the most extensive mechanism of intergovernmental contacts. The two have five intergovernmental commissions: on trade and economic cooperation, energy, social issues, as well as investment and regional cooperation," Sanakoyev said.

    He added that bilateral collaboration is actively developing in a wide array of sectors.

    "In April, the trade turnover between the two countries increased by 15 percent, according to statistical data. We have diversified energy trade routes and we are also expanding ties in non-energy sectors, such as aviation, space, communications and construction," Sanakoyev added.

    "Moscow and Beijing clinched a huge range of contracts that cannot be described in a few words. Relations between the two countries can be called a mature strategic partnership. Taking into account the existing tension in the world, this partnership is starting to look like an alliance," he concluded.

    Putin and Xi’s relationship seems strong. In November 2016, they held a meeting on the sidelines of the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru's capital Lima, during which they discussed the development of bilateral ties.

    In March 2017, new Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan heaped praise on "a very successful cooperation" between China and Russia which he said will continue to develop in a similar manner in the future.

    "Bilateral cooperation between Russia and China is developing very successfully at the moment and both sides are very pleased. It will be equally auspicious in the future as well," Zhong said.

    He added that the two countries have a variety of tools at their disposal, which have played in important role in developing bilateral ties.

    Trade between Russia and China grew 2.2 percent in 2016 and came to $69.525 billion, according to the most recent data from China's General Administration of Customs. Russian-Chinese trade revived last year after a decline in 2015.

    The two countries have been working on improving transport and postal service links as well as looking into ways of integrating various regional economic initiatives.

    In June, the sides agreed to start formal talks on coupling the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and China's pan-Eurasian One Belt, One Road initiative.

    https://sputniknews.com/world/201705121053539022-russia-china-relations-alliance/
     
    aditya10r likes this.
  5. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2016
    Messages:
    957
    Likes Received:
    1,975
    India will fund Pak-FA and FGFA and Russians will simply hand over the tech to China for some trade deals
     
    Krusty and Cutting Edge 2 like this.
  6. mavles ihctep

    mavles ihctep Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    Messages:
    505
    Likes Received:
    467
    India hav nothing to offer russia except Money in arms deals.
     
    IndianHawk likes this.
  7. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2016
    Messages:
    957
    Likes Received:
    1,975
    India to skip OBOR meeting in China

     
  8. Cutting Edge 2

    Cutting Edge 2 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    417
    Likes Received:
    647
    Economically India has lot to offer to Russia. We could've been their major partner in their hour of need. We could work together in oil sector, communication, auto industry, real estate etc. Russian companies where/are dying to make inroads into Indian market but Unfortunately our politician gave great priority to western companies while completely ignoring Russian companies. Our media always hypes US president's visit like God himself has come to India but Putin's visit is barely even reported.

    Politicly did we ever stood up for Russia? or any of our friendly countries. When pro India gov in Nepal was being destroyed by pro Chinese what did we do? I remember in 2013-14 circa Russia was begging for India to stand up for them in international arena but we didn't. We remain neutral when our friends are in need and our brave experts call it Chanakya Niti.

    On the other hand China is very clear about their goals. They have a no nonsense
    approach towards friendly powers. They have opened their market for Russian companies and now Russian companies are making a fat profit in China. They supported Russia during Syria, Ukraine and Iran issue. We on the other hand signed LEMOA with US. Now what would we expect Putin to do? His obvious choice was China over India.
     
  9. Mikesingh

    Mikesingh Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2015
    Messages:
    2,015
    Likes Received:
    3,447
    Location:
    Tora Bora
    Pakistan is a failing state due to mis-governance, corruption on a galactic scale, a crashing economy, terror, and a military that controls a lame duck government that lacks any vision. It can hardly be called a nation state.

    The Russians know it. They are only trying to get Pak to stabilize Afghanistan since they have some influence with the Taliban. Nothing more. Porkis don't have anything to give the Russians.

    If the Porkis think that there's going to be a grand alliance with Russia, they're barking up the wrong tree. Their delusions are breathtaking!
     
    TheSeeker likes this.
  10. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2009
    Messages:
    21,135
    Likes Received:
    7,444
    I think India needs to reexamine foreign policy . India has a long history of allying with declining powers and now we are realigning with the west


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Cutting Edge 2 likes this.
  11. Cutting Edge 2

    Cutting Edge 2 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    417
    Likes Received:
    647
    Iran, North Korea and Syria are failed states too but that didn't stop Russian from making them allies.
    Pak already has an alliance with China and China has an alliance with Russia so why not a Russia China Pak alliance. On top of that Russia and Pak's interests match in Afghanistan.

    Not stability, they both want instability in Afghanistan. Pak against Indian interests and Russia against US interests.

    What's Driving Russia-Pakistan Cooperation on Afghanistan?
    A shared willingness to embrace the Taliban, plus suspicions about the U.S. role, bring Moscow and Islamabad together.

    By Samuel Ramani
    May 09, 2017

    On April 27, Pakistani Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu in Moscow. During their meeting, Asif called on Russia to lead the process of stabilizing Afghanistan. Asif also reiterated Shoigu’s argument that an effective counterterrorism strategy in Afghanistan can only be devised by consulting all participants in the conflict.

    Even though the Moscow-Islamabad relationship has historically been plagued by distrust, Pakistan has emerged as a consistent advocate of an expanded Russian role in Afghanistan for two reasons. First, Pakistani policymakers have strongly supported Russia’s willingness to cooperate with the Taliban. Second, Russia has countered U.S. efforts to contain Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan by diplomatically engaging Pakistan and accommodating Islamabad’s views on the stabilization of Afghanistan.

    Why Pakistan and Russia Align over the Taliban’s Empowerment

    The shift in Pakistan’s attitude toward Russia’s involvement in Afghanistan from indifference to vocal support has corresponded closely with Russia’s establishment of informal diplomatic ties with the Taliban. Since 2015, Russia has cooperated with the Taliban to weaken the Islamic State (ISIS) foothold in Afghanistan and deter the United States from maintaining a long-term military presence in the country.

    The Pakistani government has strongly supported Russia’s outreach to the Taliban. On April 9, the special assistant on foreign affairs to the Pakistani Prime Minister, Syed Tariq Fatemi, claimed that Moscow is “positively” using its influence over the Taliban to encourage the Taliban to participate in peace talks on Afghanistan’s future.

    Pakistan’s support for Russian engagement with the Taliban can be explained by two strategic imperatives. First, Pakistani and Russian policymakers have both concluded that their countries’ geopolitical influence over Afghanistan are maximized by a strengthened Taliban. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban is directly aimed at destabilizing Afghanistan, as Islamabad fears that a stable Afghanistan could forge a strategic partnership with India. Many Pakistani policymakers view India’s establishment of hegemony over Afghanistan as a potential security threat. This grim assessment is rooted in the popular assumption in Islamabad that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is an opportunist who has implemented a virulently anti-Pakistani foreign policy agenda for political gain.

    Even though Russia maintains cordial relations with India, many regional analysts believe that Russia shares Pakistan’s desire for instability in Afghanistan. Indian academic Brahma Chellaney recently argued that Russia has collaborated with the Taliban to increase pressure on U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and to retaliate for U.S. support for Sunni rebels in Syria.

    Second, Russia and Pakistan both support the Taliban as a bulwark against the Islamic State’s encroachment into Afghanistan. The February 17 Sufi shrine attack in Sehwan caused Pakistan to escalate its internal repression of ISIS affiliates and heightened fears of a spillover of ISIS from Afghanistan to Pakistan. As the Taliban has deployed elite fighters since late 2015 to vanquish ISIS, Pakistan has facilitated the Taliban’s recapture of territory in Afghanistan through material support and the provision of diplomatic recognition to the Taliban.

    Even though Islamic State’s ability to threaten the security of the North Caucasus and Central Asia remains inconclusive, Russia has recently paid more attention to potential threat ISIS poses to these regions and its own security. Moscow’s December 2016 disclosure of communication with Taliban leaders on defeating ISIS revealed the synergy between Russian and Pakistani strategies toward Afghanistan. This synergy could have profound implications for Afghanistan’s long-term political trajectory, as the Taliban’s territorial sphere is larger than at any point since 2001.

    Russia-Pakistan Diplomatic and Military Cooperation in Afghanistan

    In addition to a shared desire to empower the Taliban, Pakistani officials have endorsed Russia’s preference for a multilateral solution to Afghanistan’s political crisis. In March 2017, Pakistan announced its decision to participate in a 12 party conference on Afghanistan hosted in Moscow, and praised Russia’s decision to support an Afghan-led peace process that engaged all warring factions at the bargaining table.

    Even though Pakistan continues to be a major recipient of U.S. military aid, many members of the Pakistani military establishment supported Russia’s decision to exclude the United States from its Afghanistan peace talks. This support can be explained by the Pakistani military’s frustration with Washington’s unwillingness to consult Pakistan and its principal ally, China, on the stabilization of Afghanistan.

    On March 5, a senior Pakistani military official told the U.K. Telegraph that Islamabad would support a Syria-style Russian counterterrorism operation in Afghanistan if U.S. efforts failed to ameliorate the country’s ongoing political turmoil. With Donald Trump having publicly criticized Pakistan’s role in destabilizing Afghanistan, many Pakistani policymakers believe that a Russian military intervention in Afghanistan will increase Islamabad’s influence over Afghanistan’s political trajectory.

    The Kremlin has given credibility to these assumptions by describing Pakistan as a constructive counterterrorism partner in public statements and expanding bilateral military cooperation with Pakistan. On March 30, a Russian military delegation, accompanied by senior Pakistani army officers, made a historic visit to the conflict-ridden Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas of North and South Waziristan.

    After this visit, the Pakistani military’s official media wing announced that Russia’s delegation had praised Pakistan’s efforts to reduce violence on Afghanistan’s borders. Russia’s September 2016 joint counterterrorism drill with Pakistan also demonstrated to the international community that Moscow is willing to consider Islamabad as a viable military partner, and suggests that Moscow would request Pakistani support if it intervened militarily in Afghanistan.

    In addition to expressing solidarity with Pakistan, Russia has won Islamabad’s favor by actively engaging China in its efforts to resolve the Afghanistan crisis. The importance of Russia’s alignment with China in Afghanistan to Pakistani policymakers was recently confirmed by Pakistan’s former envoy to Russia Khalid Khattak, who argued that improved Pakistan-Russia relations were a direct consequence of Sino-Russian engagement on Afghanistan’s future.

    Even though the motivations for Russia-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan occasionally differ, Islamabad’s increasingly vocal support for expanded Russian involvement in Afghanistan could profoundly impact Afghanistan’s long-term political trajectory. While Russia has yet to demonstrate a proclivity to intervene militarily in Afghanistan, the consolidation of the Islamabad-Moscow partnership poses a major challenge to U.S. policymakers seeking to unilaterally shape Afghanistan’s future political direction.

    http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/whats-driving-russia-pakistan-cooperation-on-afghanistan/
     
    LETHALFORCE likes this.
  12. Cutting Edge 2

    Cutting Edge 2 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    417
    Likes Received:
    647
    Russki Chini Bahi Bahi. LOL.
    Hey Mr. Putin our leader Nehru too trusted all weather Chinese "friend" who can never ever
    betray us.

    You know what happened?
    1962


    What's Behind the Myth of China Presenting a Threat to Russia

    © AFP 2017/ HOW HWEE YOUNG
    POLITICS
    18:46 24.05.2017(updated 18:47 24.05.2017)

    Over the last decade the antagonists of the Russo-Chinese rapprochement have been busy spreading the myth of the looming "Chinese threat" to Russia, Sputnik contributor Viktor Marakhovsky wrote, adding that none of the gloomy prognoses have ever come true.
    For more than a decade American and European observers have been speculating about China's threat to Russia; however, none of the gloomy predictions have come true, Sputnik contributor Viktor Marakhovsky remarked in his recent op-ed.

    Back in 2001, Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor), an American geopolitical intelligence firm dubbed "the shadow CIA," raised the alarm over the alleged threat of "China's creeping expansion" in Russia's Far East.

    "The Chinese population in Russia's Far East continues to increase, mostly through illegal immigration. Though this creeping expansion could represent a serious geopolitical threat to Russia in the long run, some ramifications could be felt much sooner," the report claimed.

    Six years later Andrei Piontkovsky, a visiting fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, threw into doubt the possibility of a Russo-Chinese strategic alliance in his op-ed for The Guardian.

    "Russia and China have been holding joint military maneuvers in the presence of both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao. But a new strategic alliance between the two countries is not likely, as it is China that poses the greatest strategic threat to Russia," Piontkovsky wrote on August 27, 2007.

    The political scientist insisted that Beijing had "claims" on parts of Russia's territory, considering it as China's "vital space" — an apparent equivalent to the German concept of Lebensraum ("living space").

    "China will never be interested in Russia's economic and political modernization, for it prefers Russia to remain a source of mineral and energy resources and a vast 'strategic rear' in its looming challenge with the United States," Piontkovsky wrote.

    While none of the aforementioned threats has ever taken shape, antagonists of the Sino-Russian rapprochement are busy inventing new geopolitical anxieties.

    "Russia is ready for economic absorption by China," Marakhovsky noted ironically, citing those opposed to Moscow's participation in the Beijing-led One Belt One Road project.

    The latest version of the "Chinese threat" envisages neither "creeping expansion" nor grabbing Russia's natural resources, but "a 'malicious' investment in the development of a transit infrastructure through the Russian territory," the journalist specified.

    "At first, what they imputed to China was Western nationalist imperialism, then a hypertrophied Western totalitarianism, then Western demographic phobias, and now — Western neocolonialism," Marakhovsky wrote.

    Interestingly enough, the idea that China poses a serious challenge to Russia is strikingly similar to the concept of a "Russian threat," being spread by Western political technologists in the US and EU.


    "The basic logic allowing [them] to release new versions of the 'Russian Threat' one after another, is, incidentally, the same as in the case with China. [They say:] 'Look how big and strong Russia is. It's impossible that it does not harbor a plan to occupy us. It does not matter if it makes a good offer: If we make a deal, it will destroy our freedom,'" the journalist elaborated.

    What lies at the root of the attempts to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing?

    Perhaps, US geostrategist and former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski nailed it in his speech at the Nobel Peace Prize Forum in Oslo, Norway, in December 2016.

    "The US must be wary of the great danger that China and Russia could form a strategic alliance, generated in part by their own internal, political, and ideological momentum, and in part by the poorly thought out policies of the United States. Nothing is more dangerous to the US than such a close connection," Brzezinski stressed.

    As Chinese President Xi Jinping noted during his meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in mid-May, boosting China-Russia relations is a strategic choice made by both Moscow and Beijing. Xi stressed that the countries should make every effort to enhance and maintain the relations no matter how the international situation changes.

    Speaking to Sputnik on the eve of the international One Belt One Road forum on May 14-15, Sergey Sanakoyev, head of a Russian-Chinese analytical center, highlighted an "unprecedented level" of relations between Beijing and Moscow.

    "It is hardly possible to give an example of another two countries that would have such a strategic partnership with Russia and China… Relations between the two countries can be called a mature strategic partnership. Taking into account the existing tension in the world, this partnership is starting to look like an alliance," Sanakoyev emphasized.

    https://sputniknews.com/politics/201705241053945736-myth-china-threat-russia/
     

Share This Page