Russia can aid in coping with China

Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by ejazr, Oct 5, 2010.

  1. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Russia can aid in coping with China: India : India Today

    It is widely accepted that the global power balance is shifting from the Euro-Atlantic area to Asia, with China and India the principal emerging powers. How does Russia, which straddles both Europe and Asia, position itself in the developing scenario? Russia's principal strategic challenge has come from the US, inducing it to reinvigorate its ties with China, but the perceived decline in US power accompanied by the spectacular rise of China in recent years, coupled with the sluggish pace of its own resurgence, presents Russia with a complex challenge.

    Russia's relations with India remain politically stable but lack economic sinews, whereas India's relations with the US have developed both political and economic muscle. With President Obama's visit to India in November and that of President Medevedev in December in mind, and taking into account the latest developments of our own relations with China, how should the Russia- India- China( RIC) dialogue be assessed?

    USA

    This dialogue was initiated at a time when the world seemed to have become unipolar, with unilateralism, pre- emptive strikes, regime change, humanitarian intervention, violation of the principles of sovereignty, NATO expansion etc as its hallmarks. This trilateral arrangement amongst three major non- western powers with a more multilateral view of international relations was intended to promote a more desirable global equilibrium.

    Russia, India and China, as emerging economies, populous and geographically huge, seemed a credible combination to disprove that history had ended with the Soviet Union's demise and the end of the Cold War. In theory these three countries forging a true partnership could start a new chapter in world history.

    The promise of the RIC dialogue has, however, not been realised. The validity of most of the premises underlying it has been shaken. The unipolar phase of international relations has ended sooner than expected. The embroilment of the US in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has exposed the limits of its military power. If a debacle in Afghanistan occurs, the blow to US prestige would be immense, crippling its war on terror.

    The 2008 financial crisis that hit the US has enfeebled it economically and cut its appetite and capacity for unilateral actions abroad. Under President Obama the US is favouring multilateral solutions to global problems. He has defused the ABM dispute with Russia, recommenced disarmament talks with it, with agreement on a follow- up to Start 1 Treaty.

    Further NATO expansion has been put on hold as part of re- setting relations with Russia.

    China's own international conduct is now causing concern, weakening the positive basis of the RIC dialogue as a reaction to truculent power politics. China is asserting its territorial claims in the South China Sea more aggressively, causing concern to littoral states. It has unilaterally declared this area as constituting its "core interest", implying it is nonnegotiable, and resists multi- lateral discussions to resolve differences.

    The projection by China that its rise will be peaceful is being punctured by its own actions, as its recent confrontation with Japan over Senkaku Islands shows. Since the RIC dialogue began China's economic rise has been spectacular, with its economy now overtaking Japan's in size. Economic and financial interdependence with the US has increased to a point virtually of fusion. China's self- confidence has bounded and nationalist feelings are being fed at home.

    Conflict

    China, which came into the RIC dialogue reluctantly, has less need for it in geo- strategic terms today to assert its global role, counter US hegemony, and advocate a more consensual, multi- lateral approach to international affairs.

    With the perception of declining US power and China encroaching into the space being vacated, and with enormous financial resources at China's disposal to support the geographical expansion of its influence aimed at securing assured access to vital natural resources to fuel its inexorable rise, the basis of the RIC dialogue has changed both from the Chinese perspective and the Indian, and should induce a review of Russian thinking.

    This despite the Russia-China equation gathering strength in recent years with increased trade volumes, energy deals and greater openeness by Russia to allow China to harness its natural resources for the growth of the Chinese economy.

    In one key respect, the weakest participant in the RIC dialogue is India.

    Although a rapidly growing economy with a huge market, with a capacity to provide skilled human resources to sustain growth in the fast ageing industrial countries, and generally acknowledged as a future pole in a multi-polar world, India, although in the G-20, is not a permanent member of the Security Council, which ipso facto limits its role in a RIC combination to develop joint strategies to influence the debate and decisions on issues of global peace and security.

    Another dissonant factor is China's revived claims on Arunachal Pradesh, provocative questioning of India's sovereignty over J& K , the expansion of its hold over POK as part of its energy security plans, and laying the foundations of its naval presence in the Indian Ocean area.

    This has seriously eroded India-China "trust" even as the bilateral trade has shot up and on issues of climate change and WTO matters the two countries work together. China also opposes India's permanent membership of the Security Council, unlike Russia.

    Afghanistan

    The India-Russia equation within the RIC remains solid, with the two countries having clear long term geo-political interests in common. India is probably the only big country that sees Russia's resurgence as a vital factor in a maintaining a stable balance in international relations.

    US and Europe will remain powerful actors on the global stage for years to come and China is rapidly becoming the second most powerful national entity. The space created by Russia's decline is also being filled up by China.

    Russia's rise puts constraints both on NATO and China, and widens India's strategic options, even as India continues to deepen its ties with the US. India and Russia have common interests in combating terrorism and extremist religious ideologies causing ravages in the Afghanistan- Pakistan region, with toxic fall- out on Central Asia and southern Russia.

    Russia's recent initiative to form the Russia-Afghanistan- Pakistan- Tajikstan group to deal with this problem constitutes a wrinkle in the so far smooth India- Russia understanding on Af-Pak/Central Asian issues. Pakistan is bound to see in this exclusion of India by Russia, whatever be the Russian interpretation, as an endorsement of its efforts to deny India a role in Afghanistan.

    Along with China's ambitions in Afghanistan, this weakens further the strategic underpinnings of the RIC dialogue. In any case, Russia's insistence to broaden RIC to BRIC by including Brazil, about which India had reservations initially, showed that Russia had concluded that RIC's potential was not being fulfilled and new life had to be infused into an arrangement of non- western powers by including Brazil.

    The RIC dialogue was a grand idea that failed to live up to expectations because the conditions in which it was set up changed rapidly. The question is should the RIC dialogue now be aimed at moderating Chinese ambitions and behaviour as much as diluting the US and western grip over the way the international political and economic/ financial system works?

    The writer is a former Foreign Secretary
     
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  3. Rama

    Rama Regular Member

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    within the next 15 yrs the world is going to see a new strategic group of us india russia broth us and russia are helping tndia im areas they would not do with any other country I BELIVE THE CHINEES ARE AWARE OF THIS
     
  4. Minghegy

    Minghegy Regular Member

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    Russia needs India perching weapons because of China.
    US needs China's cheap export, or dollar will case inflation in domestic market.

    India needs China in existence, or will be forgotten by international society. :happy_7:
     
  5. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    We'd be fine with china not existing. :happy_7:
     
  6. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    You will not be fine. Fair-skinned christian people and dark-skinned none-christian people are on a economical and cultural collision course, it might not happen in the next 50 years, but it will definitely happen sometimes in the distant future. Right now China and Islam are the main focuses in the west, but India will become a thorn in their eyes sooner than later.

    As long as you stay dark-skinned and stick to Hinduism, you will not have a future, it's written in stones and testaments everywhere.
     
  7. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    I think Islam will eat India alive before the white supremacists. Then it will be show-down time between Islam extremists and caucasian christians. Hindusim is an endagnered species, it lives on borrowed time.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2010
  8. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    ^^ First of all, stop talking religious nonsense. Secondly, mainstream Hindus have been in worse situation than today during the foreign Islamic invasions of ancient India when there was no modern technology to defend the country and there was disunity. Even then warriors from all over the country took individual efforts and defeated the invading armies. Please read on Chhatrapati Shivaji, Guru Gobind Singh and other such warriors of ancient India.
     
  9. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Russia can easily engage China by throwing away its Soviet-style thinking and starting extensive engagement along the lines of NATO with India and Southeast. This shouldn't be a formal military bloc but simply a strategic bloc for faster trade, easier visa procedures and stronger economic and strategic agreements. Russia has all the easy reasons for this engagement to become a reality. Burmese, Vietnamese and even Laotians as well as Cambodians are long term customers of Russia in terms of military supplies. What's more, we Indians are their largest clients in the world ever since China decided to go solo in military development and also we've been having strategic partnership dialogs on various world issues in mutual agreement. Another thing is that countries that are in our sphere of friendship are being encouraged to interact with Russia more and more such as Bhutan, Maldives etc. Russia's need for constantly having warm waters for trade and ports in warm waters for its own secure lanes necessitates that it engage extensively with South and Southeast Asia.

    With so many Russia-supportive countries in South and Southeast Asia, Russia simply needs to take Asia seriously in engagement and bingo! it has a secure base of friendly countries down south. Russian industrialists are some of the most prominent on this planet and this can call for multiple trade agreements with the Southeast countries especially since Russia suffers from agricultural woes due to its limited arable lands. Southeast offers cheap exports of rich agricultural resources that Russia can utilize. Apart from this, the emerging rich electronic industry in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam offers limitless opportunities for Russian tech firms. And then they always have us Indians for further extensive trade and as carriers of Russian industrial technology to Southeast.

    Unlike what their white-supremacists think, Russia's traditional friends' sphere has always been non-whites. Whether Cold War or later, it has always been Asians, Latin American and African countries that have been Kremlin's sincerest friends unlike their fellow white West Europeans and Americans. I am not going by race or intend to hurt any Russian member here, but this is the reality and it couldn't get any simpler for Russia to make its big comeback in the world strategic circles.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2010
  10. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Oh great Chinese scholar. Did you come to India to read our History or you Had a Vision. Or If you are Omni-verse then you must be knowing what will be future of your country as well.
     
  11. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Same Islam will eat you alive as well. Your atrocities in Xinxiang against Uighars will pay you rich.
     
  12. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    non christians are also fair skinned. im living example.

    also dont post nonsensical religious gibberish.
     
  13. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    You (hindu) didn't defeat Islam rulers, the brits replaced them. But we are in the age of Islam awakening, and they are making a terrifying comeback.
     
  14. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    The only trace of communism you find in China today is in the name of the party. Communism is dead, but China is indeed very much westernized these days, but this does not mean the white caucasians will view us with any less suspicion.
     
  15. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Yes, i think the goal of this new islam revolution is to spread the religion to every corner of the earth and convert every non-believer into a muslim, eventually. But compared to India, china will be a tough nut to crack. We don't look like muslims, fiercely none-religious and become suspicious immediately upon seeing a strange (Urgur for example), so the beaded mullahs will find it incredibly difficult to penetrate/infiltrate/sneak upon our society. And islam extremists have learned that CCP means business when it comes to cracking down.

    India, on the other hand, has been a Islam land before (muslims all around the world still hold grudge because of that), still has lots of muslims who unlike their chinese counterparts, are spread in every corner of India, and it's almost impossible to tell apart an Indian mulim from an Hindu. And on top of that your country, from the system to the government, is chaotic. I am pretty certain bin Laden and his gangs have long set their eyes on India and have designated India as priority No.1.

    China and other eastern asian countries probably would be the last countries to survive this Islam onslaught.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2010
  16. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Yeah, that's the problem. You need to beboth fair-skinned and christian (preferably protestant) to get accepted by them. If you think the westners have become any less color-blind than their ancestors, you are mistaken.
     
  17. Rama

    Rama Regular Member

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    Those who speak about Hinduism, Christianity, Islam must take into consideration of the following facts.

    1) Hinduism is over 5,000 years old. A Hindu can go to any Hindu temple or anywhere in the world to pray. There is no spritual discomfort. Chritianity is over 2,000 years old and by now 2010, there are over 23,000 Chritians denomiation. Each trying to run down the other. Islam is 1,500 years old, there are dozen of different groupings who all claim to workship God and consider the holly Quran as a source of all knowledge and prayer to God. Now whats is the present situation? Islam is in a total turmoil all over the world. Christianity is dead in the West. So much so, Christians missionaries from America and Europe would like to convert the so called non-workshipers of God in India to the so called the righteous way. Anyone living in India today on hearing this would not able to stop laughing. The time will come when the world will realize that Hinduism in the mother of all religions. From time to time, children have abusive this one and only mother. But this mother has the strength to take all this abuses from all the religions and still remain true the fundamental Hindu belief that its is God and God alone who creates and sustain of all faiths. And this is why Hindus have great difficulty in behaving like others. It is only when the pain is unbearable that violence only breaks only for a short while. I firmly belief as Swami Vivekananda once said the world shall come to know of this eternal truth in due course. India's destiny in the future is going to be a unique one. And this will consist of true knowledge and a way out of man misery . It will take time but it will come to past
     
  18. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    what ??? i couldn't give a toss whether they accept me or not...im not planning on living there.

    im just pointing out that non-christians are also fair skinned.
     
  19. lurker

    lurker Regular Member

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    If you believe what you just wrote then you need to confront your own bias. There are people like those you speak of, but they are marginalized/ are not in positions of real influence if they flaunt it. Those types of people exist everywhere not just in the west, and are on all sides of the political spectrum. If they aren't convinced of their own 'race' superiority, they are convinced they are being oppressed by such and such 'race'. Both use big brushes when a finer observation is required.
     
  20. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    GUYS! This discussion is about Russia co-existing in an Asia dominated by China and what steps it can take to re-take its dominance in the region!!! It has NOTHING TO DO with race or religion of people or what color of skin they got. So let's get back to the topic shall we?
     
  21. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    China's biggest weakness is the lack of individual freedom---be it political, religious, cultural or otherwise.

    India on the other hand along with other sucessful societies like US, UK Australia, thrive on individiual freedom.

    How China tackles its political reform will be its biggest challenge. China's economy is cruising along on a six lane highway at 100kph, but the question when it reaches that huge speed bump called "politcal reform" will all the wheels come of the China "car" and stop dead or will it manage to continue moving?
     

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