Replacing MiG-21 and MiG-27 from Rafale?

[grampiguy]

Aero India 2015: Indian Air Force chief adds to MMRCA confusion - IHS Jane's 360

ACM Arup Raha mentioned that MiG-21 and MiG-27 were retiring soon, so he needed an MRCA aircraft to replace them. This was his justification for purchasing MMRCA or Rafale aircraft which he needs ASAP. The problem in his argument is that he is mixing light and medium category of combat aircraft. This way he is asking for a medium aircraft for replacing a light one.

Indian Air Force has following aircraft in its medium combat category:-

Mirage 2000 (being upgraded) - 50+ aircarft
Jaguar (Being upgraded) - 127 aircraft
MiG-29 - 65+ aircraft

These three aircraft will be in service till 2035-40 with upgrades, i.e. before AMCA comes into service, which will replace them.

IAF needs to urgently replace MiG-21 and MiG-27 with a light attack aircraft for taking care of CAP, point defence and CAS duties. Hence, it's quite unusual why ACM Raha is insisting that he needs a MMRCA/Rafale to replace these light attack aircraft? Will anyone ask IAF this question?

 

[Prometheus]

well the AMCA is supposed to be dev/ produced by that time, as we know with DRDO projects, they seldom meet their time schedule. In any case,even if DRDO achieve their target, it will take HAL a while start building AMCA, and build up to those numbers.

 

[grampiguy]

well the AMCA is supposed to be dev/ produced by that time, as we know with DRDO projects, they seldom meet their time schedule. In any case,even if DRDO achieve their target, it will take HAL a while start building AMCA, and build up to those numbers.

Even going by this logic, IAF would need a MMRCA by 2035 or later. Will Rafale be an adequate fighter for that period? Is IAF completely sure that AMCA wouldn't be developed by 2035, even in 20 years? So why is it showing enthusiasm in that project then?

Finally, MiG-21 and MiG-27 would start retiring from 2017-18 onwards. So he should ideally be looking for a light attack fighter that could start joining by this timeline and not a MMRCA. So why is he pushing MMRCA now?

 

[Prometheus]

I think thats the reason the IAF requested for an tried and tested platform in their RFP, instead of something like the MIG 35, which is still currently under development.

 

[rohit b3]

Spending 120Mil$ Each, for a foreign 4.5th generation fighter , in the 5th gen era, does not make sense. Even if the contract is signed in 2015, the first 16 jets wont come before 2018 and then deliveries will continue till 2027 or so. It will also lock up 20 Bil$, hampering other projects which need money.
Post 2030, the French will be called again, for mid life upgrades.
Today they are chargin 42mil$ EACH for a Mirage2000 upgrade. A whole Tejas mk1 costs 30mil$, in comparision.
I wouldn be surprised if they ask for upto 7-8 bil$ just upgrade the 126 Rafales later.

We are wrapping up Su-30MKI production by 2018. The only 4.5th generation aircraft we would be buying after that are Tejas mk2. Only cause they are cost effective and its Indian. And it can hit the export markets well.

The smart thing to do now is buy 20 more Tejas mk1 and 30 more Su-30MKI . The infrastructure is already available for these aircrafts.
Push Tejas mk1 in the export market. This is the solution for the next 5 years.

Post that, invest and concentrate on Tejas mk2, FGFA and AMCA. We already have soo much on our hands. 20Bil$ Rafale deal will hamper atleast 1 of these projects if not 2.

 

[smestarz]

Aero India 2015: Indian Air Force chief adds to MMRCA confusion - IHS Jane's 360

ACM Arup Raha mentioned that MiG-21 and MiG-27 were retiring soon, so he needed an MRCA aircraft to replace them. This was his justification for purchasing MMRCA or Rafale aircraft which he needs ASAP. The problem in his argument is that he is mixing light and medium category of combat aircraft. This way he is asking for a medium aircraft for replacing a light one.

Indian Air Force has following aircraft in its medium combat category:-

Mirage 2000 (being upgraded) - 50+ aircarft
Jaguar (Being upgraded) - 127 aircraft
MiG-29 - 65+ aircraft

These three aircraft will be in service till 2035-40 with upgrades, i.e. before AMCA comes into service, which will replace them.

IAF needs to urgently replace MiG-21 and MiG-27 with a light attack aircraft for taking care of CAP, point defence and CAS duties. Hence, it's quite unusual why ACM Raha is insisting that he needs a MMRCA/Rafale to replace these light attack aircraft? Will anyone ask IAF this question?

The earlier Chief NAK Browne suggested that the branch of IAF that maintains the aircraft was capable of producing the aircraft. So it seems that the IAF chiefs do eat a lot, but then they dont know which side the gas should pass and they allow it to pass both ways.

These people are just pilots who have been promoted and when they were at rank of Air commodore, they look around and ask themselves "what is my retirement plans" and then start pushing ware for foreign sellers

You correctly said and I support your view that IAF does need to replace Migs with single engine planes because that was the role of Migs
What planes do you think China has most? Single engine J-10 that is backbone of PLAAF.

If IAF is going to have its way, then IAF will be ending up spending indian defence budget on its need for planes, operating them and maintaining them and then complain that the budget alloted is too less and planes are grounded due to lack of spares and fuel.

We need leaders who are not only pilots but tacticians, as per all the commetns given by the last two air chiefs I do feel they lack the vision and certainly the common courtsey of what to speak and when.

 

[smestarz]

Spending 120Mil$ Each, for a foreign 4.5th generation fighter , in the 5th gen era, does not make sense. Even if the contract is signed in 2015, the first 16 jets wont come before 2018 and then deliveries will continue till 2027 or so. It will also lock up 20 Bil$, hampering other projects which need money.
Post 2030, the French will be called again, for mid life upgrades.
Today they are chargin 42mil$ EACH for a Mirage2000 upgrade. A whole Tejas mk1 costs 30mil$, in comparision.
I wouldn be surprised if they ask for upto 7-8 bil$ just upgrade the 126 Rafales later.

We are wrapping up Su-30MKI production by 2018. The only 4.5th generation aircraft we would be buying after that are Tejas mk2. Only cause they are cost effective and its Indian. And it can hit the export markets well.

The smart thing to do now is buy 20 more Tejas mk1 and 30 more Su-30MKI . The infrastructure is already available for these aircrafts.
Push Tejas mk1 in the export market. This is the solution for the next 5 years.

Post that, invest and concentrate on Tejas mk2, FGFA and AMCA. We already have soo much on our hands. 20Bil$ Rafale deal will hamper atleast 1 of these projects if not 2.

Considering what was priced for M2K and what we paid for the upgrade, the MLU will cost almost 150% of the present contract price, be sure

 

[smestarz]

Even going by this logic, IAF would need a MMRCA by 2035 or later. Will Rafale be an adequate fighter for that period? Is IAF completely sure that AMCA wouldn't be developed by 2035, even in 20 years? So why is it showing enthusiasm in that project then?

Finally, MiG-21 and MiG-27 would start retiring from 2017-18 onwards. So he should ideally be looking for a light attack fighter that could start joining by this timeline and not a MMRCA. So why is he pushing MMRCA now?

Watch word is Kickbacks

 

[smestarz]

well the AMCA is supposed to be dev/ produced by that time, as we know with DRDO projects, they seldom meet their time schedule. In any case,even if DRDO achieve their target, it will take HAL a while start building AMCA, and build up to those numbers.

What we all clearly see is that IAF lacks vision and importantly clarity of vision. Light fighter planes are necessary for point defence and air interceptions and these are cheaper to use and maintain, but IAF seems hell to not allow Tejas in, only Mirage 2000
HAL does not follow time line because the IAF keeps changing its specs.

Look at RFP for MRCA? Earlier they wanted to procure 126 Mirage 2000 to replace MiG-21 and crying for it, and when Govt when for RFP they ended up selecting plane of same company but operationally tootally different. How does it exactly happen?

 

[grampiguy]

What we all clearly see is that IAF lacks vision and importantly clarity of vision. Light fighter planes are necessary for point defence and air interceptions and these are cheaper to use and maintain, but IAF seems hell to not allow Tejas in, only Mirage 2000
HAL does not follow time line because the IAF keeps changing its specs.

Look at RFP for MRCA? Earlier they wanted to procure 126 Mirage 2000 to replace MiG-21 and crying for it, and when Govt when for RFP they ended up selecting plane of same company but operationally tootally different. How does it exactly happen?

Every military service would like to get the largest pie of the defence budget and for that either they will go for the fanciest toy or make sure no one gets more than them. In the absence of a Referee (whether Chief of Defence Staff, Chairman of Joint Chiefs or Chief Military Advisor to RM), none of the acquisition request MoD gets from services conform to any plan and are efficient. LTIPP, Services Acquisition Plan ..all are lip service to get unwanted platforms. The problem is all across services in some magnitude.

However, this problem is magnified in Indian Air Force whom some have started calling "Imported Air Force". Entire acquisition strategy of this air force is a labyrinthine process with no rhyme and reason (what Brookings called "Arming without Aiming"). I will borrow from someone's argument on Prasun's blog (Its trainers are from Europe, Fighters are from Russia and Europe, Airlifters from America, Russia, Europe, UAVs from Israel, Missiles from whole world (whoever is ready to sell). Result, an operational readiness of 50% on whole and logistical nightmare with "United States of Spare Parts". Due to multiplicity of air platforms, its maintenance personnel are not adequately trained and they fall short of expected performance. Result - frequent crashes. By one estimate, IAF crashes one squadron of aircraft in every three years. It can crash planes which have rarely crashed in their career like C-130J. Its rate of MiG-21 crashes are far worse than SYRIA!!! Imagine this happens when IAF has FOUR levels of trainers - Basic Pilatus, intermediate Kiran, advanced Hawk and LIFT MiGs. If so much crash happened in any other air force, the Chief Air Marshal would have been changing every month. In India, they become ambassadors after retirement.

This Air Force bought heaps of aviation platforms during 1980s - from IL-76, AN-32, Dornier 228 to MiG-21, MiG-23, MiG-25, MiG-27, MiG-29, Mirage-2000 and kept buying Jaguar and other older platforms. It played a role in Indian near-bankruptcy during 1991. Even then, when Kargil war broke in 1999, it didn't have one aircraft for precision bombing, even though it had Mirage, MiG-27 and Jaguar, three aircraft in same category !! Why ? Because it loves to buy platforms but never equips them properly with weapons, PGMs, force multipliers and cutting edge technology. Neither it will ever buy enough spares for maximum operational readiness.

Bottomline: India's "Imported Air Force" has no long-range vision. Its high time MoD forced it to learn some of that.

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

for all those people

blasting away at DRDO for delays & project slipups

here is something to think about

Rafale deal signing downpayment amount estimated at 15000 crores

DRDO budget for 2015 2016 is Rs 14300 crore

 

[sgarg]

The bulk of IAF fleet should be single engine small fighters, due to lower requirement of space, fuel and maintenance.

Mig-21 and Mig-27 cannot be replaced with Rafale. COAS's logic is faulty.

The fact is Su-30 and Rafale SIMPLY DO NOT COEXIST. Su-30 is an expensive plane, and so is Rafale. IAF budget does not allow two white elephants.

The MMRCA was logical 10 years back; but not anymore due to delays and replacement of MMRCA concept with Su-30 has already happened (Su-30 numbers have increased in the meantime).

 

[smestarz]

The bulk of IAF fleet should be single engine small fighters, due to lower requirement of space, fuel and maintenance.

Mig-21 and Mig-27 cannot be replaced with Rafale. COAS's logic is faulty.

The fact is Su-30 and Rafale SIMPLY DO NOT COEXIST. Su-30 is an expensive plane, and so is Rafale. IAF budget does not allow two white elephants.

The MMRCA was logical 10 years back; but not anymore due to delays and replacement of MMRCA concept with Su-30 has already happened (Su-30 numbers have increased in the meantime).

Su-30 MKI is expensive and Rafale is thrice more expensive to buy. further if we talk of replacing white elephants when what do we do with incompetent air staff? Can we afford to feed them for backstabbing the growth of a nation?

 

[sgarg]

considering kind of projects drdo works on and amount of tp they do round the year this is more than enough , rath project and research on sadhus seriously drdo ?

Interesting comment. Now religion of scientists has become an issue. As if I am counting how many trips a general makes to a temple or a church?

Would you STOP this kind of cheap comments.

Focus on real issues, backed up by evidence.

I can tell you that allocations to IAF will GO DOWN if the top brass of IAF keeps on making public comments.

The Navy is already going up in airpower. Soon army will also be given more importance.

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

considering kind of projects drdo works on and amount of tp they do round the year this is more than enough , rath project and research on sadhus seriously drdo ?

you want DRDO labs to come up with

Rafale equivalent LCA
Armata Spec FMBT that too in NATO class
etc
etc
etc

all in money which is less the 15% downpayment required for Rafale deal

Wah Bhai Wah

 

[smestarz]

ok then lets forget rafale lets forget DRDO

lets buy from IRAN

Never argue with an Idiot, he will first bring you down to his level and beat you with experience. and believe me he seems experienced !!!

The motto of the IAFseems to be "Rafale no matter what .." and MoD is the one which has to sanction it and they are of the opinion "not going to happen till hell freezes over " Since IAF really cannot "pay" or take the purchase decision, guess IAF has no options.

 

[sgarg]

Let me make it a clear - a serious negotiation over Rafale is in progress. So a purchase of Rafale can still happen.

However I must also make it clear that the gaps are still wide.

India does have options if Rafale deal is cancelled. These options are being explored actively.

The behaviour of COAS is childish when he says "there is no plan B".

 

[SajeevJino]

Let me make it a clear - a serious negotiation over Rafale is in progress. So a purchase of Rafale can still happen.

However I must also make it clear that the gaps are still wide.

India does have options if Rafale deal is cancelled. These options are being explored actively.

The behaviour of COAS is childish when he says "there is no plan B".

That's a sudden U turn

 

[smestarz]

Let me make it a clear - a serious negotiation over Rafale is in progress. So a purchase of Rafale can still happen.

However I must also make it clear that the gaps are still wide.

India does have options if Rafale deal is cancelled. These options are being explored actively.

The behaviour of COAS is childish when he says "there is no plan B".

There seems to be discussion for PAKFA to be available for india in 36 months !!! And this is around the time when First Rafales could come (if the deal is signed) so the question is, why to buy an older 4th Gen tech when new 5th Gen and more capable plane is available?

BTW the 40 Su-30 MKI that are being upgraded can also be used for Nuclear strike, so Mirage 2000 is expendable.

 

[grampiguy]

You are not making any sense and your comment is also irrelevant , fact is in current budget drdo can optimize and perform so far only failed projects.
Modi need to apply swach bharat abhiyaan to clean drdo first in urgent manner.

I think Modi's Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is urgently needed in India's "Imported Air Force". The way this air force is crashing a squadron of aircraft every three years is simply unbelievable. Taking example of Indian Navy, the air chiefs should be getting kicked out every five crashes to bring home the criticality of safety aspect. This has not happened which is the reason why IAF has got this crazy import fanaticism which has to be cured NOW.

Don't forget that this air force uses four levels of training schedule with four different trainers. Even then it is crashing even uncrashable aircraft like C-130J. The last guy who crashed Su-30MKI was also responsible for another Su-30MKI crash earlier in exactly same manner and now its proven that it was a human error. That person should be court martial-ed immediately like Indian Navy has done in its own accident cases. But has anyone ever heard any exemplary punishment coming out of this air force? Rather, this air chief, who was an underling of another funny character NAK Browne, has audacity of contradicting his own Defence Minister and saying that he has no plan B. Bharat Karnad is right - ACM Raha should have been kicked out right during AI-2015 after he made this non-sensical statement in favour of a French Company.