Predicting a future for Pakistan

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by bennedose, Jul 26, 2013.

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  1. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Today in 2013, I believe that the future I would predict for Pakistan is different from what I had thought five years ago.

    Frankly five years ago I was uncertain about which way Pakistan was heading. I knew it was a state in failure - with failure on various counts but I disagreed with the assumption that it would "implode" or "explode". Countries do not actually "implode' dramatically. However I was uncertain about what might happen. I thought that Pakistan was most likely to remain on a course a state of chronic failure of governance, security and social parameters.

    That uncertainty remains today, but new information has emerged in the last five years which make me want to speculate on what is happening inside Pakistan and what might happen in future.

    First of all it is important to point out that Pakistan as a nation has some resilience and a fairly large constituency of people who want Pakistan to exist and thrive. Important among these ate the Pakjabis - the Pakistani Punjabis who form the bulk of the Pakistani population and a bulk of the army.

    But a few new facts and dynamics have emerged in my observation of Pakistan over the last decade.

    First and most important is the fact that the Pakistani army has lost some degree of its power and capability. It is still admired in Pakistan, but the sheen has gone due to a number of reasons. Wars with India never affected the Pakistan army because war with India is popular among Pakistanis even if the army gets its butt kicked. But the Paki army created and maintained jihadi forces because they could outsource the responsibility of fighting to them while escaping the consequences of defeat. Hamid Gul is on record as saying that all the mujahid/Taliban factions will join the Pakistani army of war should break out against india. Musharraf too stated that the mujahideen and Taliban are Pakistan's secret weapon against India. It was the absence of war with India, the "cowardly" Indian refusal to declare war after the parliament attack and after 26/11/2008 that rendered the mujahideen useless. The Pakistan army had no war to fight with India and so the "secret weapon" remained unused.

    In the meantime the Pakistani army made itself unpopular on several counts;
    • The action against Lal Masjid
    • The "war on terror" leading to the deaths of so many people in the Pashtun areas including soldiers leading to desertion of Pashtun soldiers from the army, grave loss of morale in the Pakistan army and locking up of 20% of forces in the Afghan border
    • The use of "war on terror" assets to target enemies pf the Pakistan army such as Baluch leaders and some sections of the Taliban
    • The use of scorched earth tactics and the use of heavy armour and the air force in retaking areas
    • Supporting American drone and other actions in secret while pretending to oppose them
    • Sleeping through the entire period of Osama bin Laden's refuge in Abbottabad and subsequent killing that made the PA and PAF the laughing stock of many parts of the world
    • Inability to anticipate and thwart serious attacks on Pak military assets including Kamra, Mehran and sundry ISI offices

    The Pakistani military is no longer in a position to take over Pakistan like Musharraf did and that makes a huge change in Pakistan.

    Other current issues in Pakistan are
    1. Decrepit economy. Even the export of terrorism is becoming difficult. Shortage of electricity and fuel. Broken down railway system. Low tax base and collection, easy availability of arms and explosives
    2. Increasing under nutrition. Pakistanis are looking increasingly like then scrawny Indians they used to laugh at. Polio is only a test case in the inability to impose health care over a country that has only 20% of the number of people India has.

    These factors give some indicator for the future.

    In my view the Pakistani army will suppress the Baluch insurgency ruthlessly, but it will take time and create more resentment. That means that infrastructure building will get delayed - in this case the roads and railways that are supposed to transport Chinese goods to and from Gwadar will be delayed for at least a decade

    The unrest along the Afghan border is a bit more serious in my view. A lot iof resentment and anger has been created against Pakistan among those people. I am not sure if Pakistan can support a Taliban government in Kabul the way they did with impunity in the 1990s. Pakistan is full of guns and bombs and this will be utilized by everyone.

    Pakistan's hostility towards India will not cease, but they may seek temporary concessions and partial peace while they can recover to simply bite India in the butt again. But still, in my view, Pakistan will remain a troubled state with a poor economy, terrorism, insurgencies and sectarian strife for the next ten years at least (up to 2023). By then its population will have grown to 250 to 280 million.

    For India it is better to allow Pakistan to continue to limp as it is doing and not help. This means that we can expect continuing terrorism on Indian soil and continuing efforts to keep Kashmir and the border hot. As long as we take care of that it would be quite OK to see Pakistan struggling with itself.

    I am not going to make any recommendation on how Pakistan could get out of this mess. It is up to Pakis to figure that out LOL!
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2013
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  3. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    @bennedose

    A couple of Paki trolls are currently en route to this thread.

    Do not engage them in discussion. They will drag you down to their level of idiocy and beat you with their vast experience.
     
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  4. Ankit Purohit

    Ankit Purohit Senior Member Senior Member

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    No Future ,Just Nuclear wasteland.
     
  5. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 Tihar Jail Banned

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    what had you thought about the future of Pakistan 5 years before?
     
  6. lcatejas

    lcatejas Regular Member

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    farhan will be prime minister and zaid hamid will be President of Pakistan ............. :laugh:
     
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  7. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Predicting a future for Pakistan


    [​IMG]


    future of pakistan is dark. it was about to disintegrate but they unable to save their country themselves sold gawadar and aksai chin to china hoping west will not do anything..

    let see how long:p:p
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2013
  8. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Thanks for the heads up, but who knows? I might be a dirtier pig than them.:lol:
     
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  9. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    I did not expect the Pakistan army to degenerate to the helpless state that it is in. The Pakistan army deserves to be attacked by the Taliban because they are American slaves and I was fully expecting America to save their asses. But US pressure actually managed to get their slaves, the Pakistani generals to move enough men to the west to lead to several negative consequences for the army.

    The amount of terrorism in Pakistan over the last 5 years should really have brought a crackdown from anyone in Pakistan who is patriotic and concerned. If they were unconcerned it means they do not care for Pakistan, which is not true. The only answer is they are helpless. They cannot stop the terrorism. They cannot take over Pakistan - so they allowed the lame duck "civilian government" to survive and hold elections. This is a far cry even from 2007 when Botox Bebe (Benazir) was killed and all investigation squashed by the only entity with the power to do that - the army.

    What i want to see in Pakistan will not happen. I would like to see a Taliban government in Pakistan giving Pakistan the true Islamic government that only the Taliban can give. That is what Pakistanis (other than the English speaking Internet crowd) want anyway - but it was stopped by the army and America.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2013
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  10. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    [​IMG]

    Sorry could not resist:rofl:
     
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  11. pankajprandhe

    pankajprandhe New Member

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    Ha Haaaa LOL GOOD ONE Friend..
     
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  12. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    I have a better one, and this is actually a genuine one:

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Even though half of your Post is good but in the rest you again are showing your indianiat

    Pak army is not helpless but civil war are more dangerous and long lasting than external war...

    I mean in a long war of 1 decade against india.we would have made you history.by reminding again those old good days of slavery

    hopefully you will understand the strength of PA in the next possibly 2015-16 war.Only if the civilian has allowed the PA to go against IA.
    otherwise from the present leaks it is somehow confirmed that this time we common pakistani will go against the trained IA.
     
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  14. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Half of Pakistan [I meant Balochistan] will join Iran and other half [Sind, KP & Punjab] will join India and gain its long lost glory....
     
  15. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Bhai Jaan,

    Now you are saying PA will go against IA, few days earlier you said FC will go against India... what next ??
     
  16. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    What did you expect me to show? Pakistaniyat? Didn't you get your grass meal for the day or maybe it's not Iftar time yet.

    I used to be in love with Shabana Azmi. Every evening when I jerked off thinking about her I used to think "Hopefully you will understand my love for you in 1980 or 1981". This is what you are doing by saying "Hopefully Pakistan will blablabla India in blablabal". Onanism feels good Paki. I am happy to see your ilk reduced to impotent internet warriors. I am going to enjoy my interaction with you.
     
  17. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 Tihar Jail Banned

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    When Pakistanis with 12% poverty rate as per indians are thought to be eating Grass.even though this is a propaganda spread by Genocider aka Modi follower and his controlled media.than indians with having 1/3rd of the world must be eating shit these days

    One-third of world's poor in India: Survey - Times Of India

    India has one third of world's poorest, says World Bank - Telegraph

    A indian can never display Pakistaniyat?you know why?because he's a product of indianiat and i hope you know the difference between Pakistaniat and Indianiat

    well let me tell you in a single sentence


    Pakistaniat:Never ruled by minority and are not officially called slaves

    Indianiat:To be always remain a slave and ruled by minority and foriegn invaders for the most of there history


    I hope next time you wont even use the Pakistaniat word.because A indian should first atleast take bath before talking about pakistaniat.otherwise forbidden for an indian to speak so.

    Whatever you think about us Internet Pakistan for our love/patriotism toward Pakistan whether relate it with your past love or anything.

    We pakistanis will remain to love our country.No matter what the conditions are.Unlike indian when in the past under a couple of thousand soldier they had laid down there arms and accepted slavery.for more detail read about Muhammad Bin Qasim.

    We are not indians.We never were indian.Pakistan was a Seperated land and independent for most of our history.
    We will fight for Pakistan.this was the reason i told you PA this time is an over kill for IA.and we common Pakistanis will fight against your so called trained army.
    which these days on almost daily occasion are killed by Kashmiri.
     
  18. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    miya. according to 2012... 50% pakis under poverty level
     
  19. dhananjay1

    dhananjay1 Regular Member

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    A third rated Jihadi country like Pakistan would degenerate into it's natural parts. If it's not happening then Indian forces should make it happen. I don't give a damn about it's sovereignty. If Indians don't even touch it, Pakis would still whine about RAW and keep spewing their hatred against Hindus. Any humane treatment of Pakistan would be seen as a weakness by them. Show and use full force against this festering Jihadi sore.
     
  20. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Arre? Why are you talking like a Hindu? In India a lot of people defecate in the open. But 300 million people, more that Pakistan's entire population have toilets and that is called "Pakistan" in the language of Hindus. The act of defecation, (also called "shitting" in Urdu which is your national language) is called Pakistaniyat and Hindus always have a bath after that. So yes, Hindus always have a bath after doing Pakistaniyat.

    But let us talk about Pakistan and its future, not Hindus defecating in their private Pakistan. I am sorry to spoil your mood by talking about Pakistaniyat. I can understand your sensitivity about such things. This thread is about Pakistan's glorious future. Why don;t you want to talk about that? Do you need a Hindu slave to remind you of the greatness of your Islamic nation? Why are you changing the subject to what Hindus do after they perform Pakistaniyat?
     
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  21. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    great thread and i commend you for your originality

    the summary of my opinion is that it depends on where militant islam will be 5, 10 years from now or whatever was your time frame

    i think that is the issue

    if enough numbers of millions can be educated to realise that militant islam is an incorrect interpretation and that reasonable and peaceful behaviour is actually "more islamic" then it is quite possible for india and pak to live as separate countries but as friends instead of the present animosity
     
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