Pakistan to lease Gilgit-Baltistan to China & possible Indian response

Discussion in 'Gilgit Baltistan' started by Bangalorean, Feb 11, 2012.

  1. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2010
    Messages:
    5,882
    Likes Received:
    5,849
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    ^^ Yes, many people are not aware of the distinction between PoK and "Gilgit-Baltistan". Personally, I couldn't care less if the Pakis keep PoK. They have converted PoK into a Jihadi cesspool anyway - it is a snakepit of mad Mullahs out there. But Gilgit-Baltistan is something we really do need. It is our gateway to Central Asia. It is the most strategic piece of land that India can ever gain. PoK is more of a liability than any gain to us. In fact, I would want all these Azaadi-wallahs on the Indian side to cross over to PoK too.
     
    tramp and pmaitra like this.
  2. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    26,954
    Likes Received:
    13,265
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Agreed, except that I would like to have PoK because the lower reaches would help us keep a better connection with GB. If we do not take back PoK, we will have build highways and railways through the treacherous mountains.

    Now coming to the snakepit, yes, I agree, but I think we can handle that very well. We may not realize this, but the years of fighting numerous insurgencies and containing them (Kashmir, Khalistan, NE, Naxal), Indian troops (MoD or MoHA) are actually a pretty well trained and battle hardened lot, and in pretty good numbers.
     
  3. tramp

    tramp Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,463
    Likes Received:
    577
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Post-US Afghanistan is gong to change the geopolitics of the whole region and needs India to rewrite its strategy with more serious intent. That should include throwing a spanner in the works of Gilgit Baltistan surrender to China or even increased Chinese intervention there. India will have to prepare itself for whatever it takes. For eg, we will see increased terror incubation in PoK directly targeting Kashmir Valley and Jammu and India will have to rethink its plans at tactical as well as strategic levels. For eg we may need to shed our inhibitions for hot pursuit.

    Hope the armed forces are up to the task and already picking the brains of each other on this angle.
     
    pmaitra likes this.
  4. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    26,954
    Likes Received:
    13,265
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    I think India should seriously deploy very long range artillery and keep bombarding PoK and make life hell for the Pakistanis. It is also about time India prepared for a push along the Indus Valley north into GB, and no more pleasing the world please - use all that is needed for a full military victory.
     
    datguy79 likes this.
  5. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2009
    Messages:
    24,108
    Likes Received:
    10,714
    Location:
    BANGalore
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China


    Good insight sir. Now please answer the question posed.
     
  6. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,118
    Likes Received:
    23,434
    Location:
    Somewhere
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    While the POK along the Neelum (Kishenganga) would be good, yet one cannot rule out the Gurez valley either!

    Then there are entries through Turtuk, Batalik along the Indus, Dalunang and ever so many options!
     
    pmaitra likes this.
  7. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    873
    Likes Received:
    523
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    The range of entire GB from the border of India is a bit around 300 kms. We can always use bigger missiles but the cost will be prohibitive to bomb out entire area if needed and counter productive to win the support of local people without using high precision Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) type weapons. But POK should be a piece of cake to take care of.

    I wouls say get 10's of thousands of M82 series dumb bombs for 300$ a piece or M83 series (if increased weight justifies range) . Attach a Smart Wing Adapter Kit - SWAK (marketed by basant aerospace) to it and convert it a glide bomb with a range of around 75km and CEP of around 60 m with regular GPS signal. And we can bomb the hell out of POK at least cost possible with maximum damage. The CEP can be reduced to 15m if military grade signal is available through GLONASS or atleast IRNSS that is going to be launched. Though the CEP is a bit high enough for non-military grade signal, the super cheap cost of the entire assembly and the ability to launch without getting into POK airspace along with being able to cover entire POK is an excellent proposition for me :thumb:
     
    pmaitra likes this.
  8. tramp

    tramp Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,463
    Likes Received:
    577
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Do you mean a "localized" problem? A little territorial acne to be teased out using a pair of diplomatic tweezers?
     
  9. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,118
    Likes Received:
    23,434
    Location:
    Somewhere
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    I answered.

    China in GB is an unique and singular situation for Indian interest.

    The Great Game is about to start.

    Russia, China are gearing up to rush into the void created by the US withdrawal, not that the US will withdraw totally, given that the money and human sacrifices made.

    Russia, though will be cautious, will still play ball with the US since they are wary of China's growing influence in Russia soft southern underbelly in the CAR. And notwithstanding what maybe said, Russia does not trust China. Nor does Russia trust the US, but the US is oceans away.China is next door and capable of real mischief and low level mischief and not nuclear. The US will not resort to low level mischief since it is far away!

    Pakistan, on the other hand, has no options but to kowtow to the Chinese since neither Russia nor the US are keen to be her bedfellows. At least, no warm advances to this effect has been seen so far.

    So, Pakistan is trying to change the demographics in GB with the large scale Sunni influx and resettlement since Shias are not too enamoured with the Chinese presence in their homeland. They could become insurgents and so Sunnis will balance this.

    So, the this would be the real Great Game and Chinese presence in GB will be of special interest to India and one of the important, even if, only a side show at the present!
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2013
  10. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    26,954
    Likes Received:
    13,265
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China


    Of course, our artillery won't reach Wakhan Valley, but we can deploy long range artillery and keep 10-15 km under constant bombardment. The focus should be to take control of vantage points and secure supply routes. It's about time we threw the 'sanctity' of the LoC out the window. Once PoK is in our control, we can focus on GB, and then the final preparation for the big event, taking Aksai Chin back.

    I hope it happens in my lifetime.
     
    aerokan likes this.
  11. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2012
    Messages:
    2,654
    Likes Received:
    4,031
    Location:
    New Delhi
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Our domination of Saltoro ridge is very very significant w.r.t Gilgit and Baltistan as this ridge and its spurs butt into Gilgit Baltistan region and anyone who dominates them can completely severe the control of PA over these areas. This region allows us a swift strike across hill tops to cut off all supply routes of PA in a future war. This region is our land route to CIS and for some reason GOI has done nothing to recover it ever from Pak. If this area is ceded to China by Pak, it will become impossible to get it back from china even if in any future war with Pak, we are able to leverage the land in Pakistan for vacating these areas. It also effectively cuts the land route to Gwader for china which will bottle it up in SCS beyound Malacca st.
    Why should India keep holding the Saltoro Ridge? | Sand Prints

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 30, 2013
  12. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2009
    Messages:
    24,108
    Likes Received:
    10,714
    Location:
    BANGalore
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Not good enough Sir. You are beating around the bush.
     
  13. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,118
    Likes Received:
    23,434
    Location:
    Somewhere
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    What exactly are your searching for?
     
  14. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    26,954
    Likes Received:
    13,265
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    A direct answer to the question: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China?
     
  15. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    820
    Location:
    Forget It....Trace my IP if you can
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Sounds tempting, but I have some reservations & majority of Indians would share this apprehension of mine.

    In 1971, we won a comprehensive victory. No questions asked. Now, everyone must have seen the Shimla agreement clauses (on-a-high-level). Does the agreement from any angle, appear to have been done between a "victor" & a "defeated party"?

    Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto managed to summarily out-maneuver Indira & her negotiators, in one masterstroke. Majority of the gains we achieved in war were sacrificed for some imaginary brownie-points from **** . All thorny issues could have been settled during those discussions, for eternity. But, nothing of that sort happened. Bhutto returned to Pak like a victor having secured all the objectives he set out with. Scholars resort to many excuses today about our fragile economic & fiscal situation in '71, droughts & famine, the colossal human tragedy (massacres, refugee situation etc.) in W.Bengal, Tripura & adjoining areas etc. but none of that could absolve our leadership of the ultimate folly they committed in aftermath of war, in negotiations with the leaders of dismembered Pak.

    We, despite all the good work (exemplary leadership by both civil & military leaders, huge sacrifices etc.) during the war, squandered the gains at the diplomatic table.
    How do we know that history wouldn't repeat itself? When a hawk like "Iron-lady" could not do the needful when it was needed most, how can trust on today's coterie of politicians?

    Today, as things stand, our polity is more stench-ful than ever before & foreign office mandarins hardly inspire confidence. Entire "governing class" is already so deep in "sh**" that they simply cannot focus on anything other than protecting themselves, their turf & their cliques.

    In such a situation, does it make any sense for us to sacrifice precious lives of soldiers, only to display our traditional magnanimity towards fallen foes, later & return to the pre-war positions (military & strategically) ?

    Now, I am not saying that we sit & do nothing. I'm all for proxy war, that employs all means at our disposal, especially targeted assignations. & This can be done without UCAV's as well. We have already demonstrated this capability in late '80's. Rumors have it that we still have this capability w.r.t Pak & a few neighboring nations.

    But, a full-fledged war, where the costs are going to be huge (lives & limbs of brave men), & gains minimal (since our conventional superiority is just not enough, no matter what we would like to portray/believe), is quite uncalled for, if I dare say it.

    Unless we accelerate reforms & achieve modernization at multiple levels (economic, bureaucratic, & military) & hone our black-ops capability, "Aman ki Asha" peaceniks would continue to rule the roost.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
    desicanuk likes this.
  16. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    26,954
    Likes Received:
    13,265
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    @TrueSpirit,

    It is true that India could have pressed for negotiations on the return of PoK and GB, but this is a big debate, best left for another thread.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  17. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    820
    Location:
    Forget It....Trace my IP if you can
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Yes, that's right. My simple point is: In the present environment, does an Indian invasion serves much purpose, given the costs involved & the fact that nothing is going to come out of it?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  18. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    26,954
    Likes Received:
    13,265
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    PoK and GB gives us access to Central Asia, and is more beneficial than Aksai Chin. Also, it is easy to defeat Pakistan than PRC. Eventually we have to recover both the territories, and I am not saying do it tomorrow, but one day we will have to; just because those are our territories.
     
  19. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    820
    Location:
    Forget It....Trace my IP if you can
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    100% true

    True, but our conventional superiority even w.r.t Pak is not as decisive, as it should be. A decade or so, later....yes, maybe. But as of today, no. We are just not there.
    @Ray Sir, @Decklander can provide the right perspective to this angle.

    Well, going by the conventional wisdom, this sounds right.

    However, we need to clearly understand & weight all the motivations behind such an effort (for why we want to it) vs.

    Risks involved: hostile population (follow-up insurgency & challenges to area/theater domination) & terrain in those geographies, human cost involved, the perpetual escalation factor, how our neighbors & powers present in the region might view our action (& prepare for all contingencies), etc.

    vs.

    Rewards coveted: Territory expansion, assertion of our historical claims, shorter & secure link to energy-rich Caspian region, establishing a foothold near "roof-of-the-world" for containing factors detrimental to Indian interest like extremism & fundamentalist havens, free access to fresh water sources, so on & so forth.

    The "geo-political calculus" in this region is too intricate & meshed to ignore even a single factor mentioned above. We need to have a well thought out & well-calibrated Central Asian strategy in place at all levels. I doubt we really have it in our leadership to embark upon such a grand adventure. Our presence in that region so far has been nominal. We could be considered a new player in the "Great Game" pushing its weight around & welcomed accordingly (need to prepare for this contigency, as well)

    On a parting note, if is "Ënergy Security" that we are after, prioritize "thorium enrichment, "controlled fusion experiments", offshore exploration on high seas, hydrogen fuel cells, solar & similar non-conventional energy sources. These areas hold literally infinite potential & would actually make of energy self-sufficient & a net exporter of the same.

    My point is, without a comprehensive "cost-benefit" analysis done, it would be naive to simply rush into that region, under whatever circumstances.

    Till we have done that, IMO, we should prime our focus on betterment of infrastructure (cities, power, port, rural connectivity, etc.), ridding our hinterland of Mao-Naxal violence & expansion of our development efforts to those areas.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
    datguy79 likes this.
  20. SLASH

    SLASH Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,130
    Likes Received:
    433
    Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

    Can there be trade-off between India and Pakistan. Kashmir valley for a passage to CAR? Is that something both governments would be looking into?
     

Share This Page