Pakistan: On the Frontier of the Apocalypse

[roma]

An article on Pakistan written by Christopher Hitchens for the January 2002 edition of Vanity Fair. It is too long to copy and paste, but a link below is provided to the article. As with anything written by Hitchens, it is well worth reading and his assessment is accurate and germane to the current situation of Pakistan.

Pakistan: On the Frontier of the Apocalypse

is Hitchens a serving or recent military doctrine expert ? or more of a "general philosopher"

and the article appears in " Vanity Fair " ?

while i have liked many of your comments on this thread for their originality and logic

sorry i cant say much for the quoted article - not an authority to be quoted imho
his beautiful descriptions and an air of the "old british days" and knows a lot of the sociesty
of that time but as an economist or politician of today ?

CC:- @Neo - if you would like to comment .

 

[Neo]

is Hitchens a serving or recent military doctrine expert ? or more of a "general philosopher"

and the article appears in " Vanity Fair " ?

while i have liked many of your comments on this thread for their originality and logic

sorry i cant say much for the quoted article - not an authority to be quoted imho
his beautiful descriptions and an air of the "old british days" and knows a lot of the sociesty
of that time but as an economist or politician of today ?

CC:- @Neo - if you would like to comment .

No ma'am, I don't read Vanity Fair.

 

[mayfair]

You will not beat Pakistan until you understand the nature of its army. The Pakistan Army does not owe allegiance to Pakistan. It owes its allegiance to itself in part, and Islam in part. To it, the people of Pakistan are raw-material, and only a partial source of funds. They're like crop in the fields for the army. The Pakistani taxpayer is not the army's sole source of monies. It's foreign military aid. So it's only natural that the army's loyalties are split.

The Pakistan Army is a great consultancy for the west to use in this region. The politics of this entire region can be shaped by making the Pakistan army behave in a certain way. It has its fingers in not just India's security, but also its politics, media and film-industry. It can conduct psy-ops against India.

India's approach to beating Pakistan army on the battlefield, and capturing a few agents or saboteurs will not help. Nor will blind retaliation against Pakistan. Pak Army wants India to punish Pakistani people, so it feeds the India boogeyman in Pakistan. Our approach should be to destablize the Pakistani Army. Bathe key people in money, keep yourself informed, destabilize and sabotage the organization. The rest of Pakistan will fall in place.

Pakistan Army wants you to think that it's wielding nukes for the entire Sunni-Islamic world. For the reasons I mentioned before, it won't be deterred by a mere threat of retaliation against Pakistan, in the event of a nuclear strike. India must extend the threat of retaliation against the entire Sunni-Islamic world, in the event of a Pakistani first-strike (Israel's policy), while cultivating better economic ties with them than Pakistan can offer. That will not only isolate Pakistan from the rest of the Sunni-Islamic world, but also make it pressurize Pakistan to keep off India's back.

The conflict between India and Pakistan is not a military conflict over disputed territory. It's a clash of two civilizations, and ideologies. India will win that conflict the moment it realizes the nature of the conflict. Pakistan has waged a war on the idea of India. Our retaliation must be equally wholesome. We have more resources on our side.

An excellent analysis of the circumstances on the whole and I would but like to add a few of my new paise to this.

1. Pakistan army is a mercenary force on hire and rent to anyone and everyone. For them, and the rest of that den of terroristan, every day is a victory? Why? Because they are still alive, they are still intact and more still they are still in the position to "stand up" to Indian state, the idea of India and the the Indian civilisation. Unfair is many things, but she has some interesting and surprisingly precise insights into the Paki mindset (as they say hell hath no fury as a woman scorned). Paki army simply lives to fight another day. That they exist and have not disappeared despite all the wars and thumpings, is a victory in their twisted bent of mind.

2. They are not for sale, but up for auction to the highest bidder. We have more resources than the Pakis but we do not have enough to take on the resources of their "fourfathers"- US, KSA, China and UK. We maybe able to buy some infleunce by lavishing money, but others can spend more and the Paki gernail will happily take all the money he can from all quarters- momin and kuffar and still be the same beast, as we have seen with US, China and even UK. Buying influence is a non-starter.

3. Paki establishment craves for parity and recognition from India and the rest of the world as some sort of equals and thus, the desperate attempts for hyphenation and tit-for-tat. For a long time their ideological fourfathers encouraged this, but having being bitten frequently by the rabid hound they raised to go after their "frenemies", the fourfathers are running out of patience and more importantly money to keep the as they say in Tamizh "Chor-naai" forcussed on India and away from them. Consequently the wish to but cannot let go of the leash. So they'e started to ignore the cretin, in different ways. Recent engagements with India point to this- Pakistan has not been mentioned even once and this is a kick in the balls for their echhanddee and thus, desperate attempts by their establishment and media to find and invent relevance where there is none-

"Pakistan sneaks into Indo-US resolution"

"Bad Sharif's China visit a message to India"

"Obama privately pressed Modi for resumption of talks with Pakistan,we have reliably learned"

On top of it what hurts them even more is that Indian government is in no mood or hurry to resume talks with them. There are no track I, thoo or free parleys where even a modicum of hint has gone out from GoI that talks are under consideration. GoI has made its stance clear- talk to us or the "Hurry rats" and when you do come to the table, do not bring any knife else we'll rain down the whole shastraalaya on you. This is baffling the Pakis no end- how dare that eevil yeendu not talk to us a equals, how dare he set the agenda for engagement when that is our prerogative as the rightful heirs of those who rules these fabled lands for 1000 years. Moreover, their attempts to stoke terror- terror boat, bomb blasts, J&K are being thwarted, modules are being busted left, right and centre, even if much is away from the public eye.

4. The country is crumbling within, with little economy, little food, an exploding population- recent census gave an average household size of 6 that is 4 children per family. They'll grow up in a crowded country with little economic prospects and therefore readily available for hire for anything. Recently on BRF one knowledgeable rakshak elucidated that Pakistan's installed electricity generation capacity is close to 23 GW, while actual output is closer to 10-12 GW- this is barely enough to meet the peak power requirements of Delhi and Mumbai combined, let alone power industries and homes across the nation.

What the the economic aspects for such a nation? I think one may find that Beggary, Thievery and Thuggery remains the only recourse for someone who does not wish to change, lives in delusions and denials and is consumed with self-loathing and hatred of the other for simply being better.

 

[tarunraju]

An excellent analysis of the circumstances on the whole and I would but like to add a few of my new paise to this.

1. Pakistan army is a mercenary force on hire and rent to anyone and everyone. For them, and the rest of that den of terroristan, every day is a victory? Why? Because they are still alive, they are still intact and more still they are still in the position to "stand up" to Indian state, the idea of India and the the Indian civilisation. Unfair is many things, but she has some interesting and surprisingly precise insights into the Paki mindset (as they say hell hath no fury as a woman scorned). Paki army simply lives to fight another day. That they exist and have not disappeared despite all the wars and thumpings, is a victory in their twisted bent of mind.

2. They are not for sale, but up for auction to the highest bidder. We have more resources than the Pakis but we do not have enough to take on the resources of their "fourfathers"- US, KSA, China and UK. We maybe able to buy some infleunce by lavishing money, but others can spend more and the Paki gernail will happily take all the money he can from all quarters- momin and kuffar and still be the same beast, as we have seen with US, China and even UK. Buying influence is a non-starter.

3. Paki establishment craves for parity and recognition from India and the rest of the world as some sort of equals and thus, the desperate attempts for hyphenation and tit-for-tat. For a long time their ideological fourfathers encouraged this, but having being bitten frequently by the rabid hound they raised to go after their "frenemies", the fourfathers are running out of patience and more importantly money to keep the as they say in Tamizh "Chor-naai" forcussed on India and away from them. Consequently the wish to but cannot let go of the leash. So they'e started to ignore the cretin, in different ways. Recent engagements with India point to this- Pakistan has not been mentioned even once and this is a kick in the balls for their echhanddee and thus, desperate attempts by their establishment and media to find and invent relevance where there is none-

"Pakistan sneaks into Indo-US resolution"

"Bad Sharif's China visit a message to India"

"Obama privately pressed Modi for resumption of talks with Pakistan,we have reliably learned"

On top of it what hurts them even more is that Indian government is in no mood or hurry to resume talks with them. There are no track I, thoo or free parleys where even a modicum of hint has gone out from GoI that talks are under consideration. GoI has made its stance clear- talk to us or the "Hurry rats" and when you do come to the table, do not bring any knife else we'll rain down the whole shastraalaya on you. This is baffling the Pakis no end- how dare that eevil yeendu not talk to us a equals, how dare he set the agenda for engagement when that is our prerogative as the rightful heirs of those who rules these fabled lands for 1000 years. Moreover, their attempts to stoke terror- terror boat, bomb blasts, J&K are being thwarted, modules are being busted left, right and centre, even if much is away from the public eye.

4. The country is crumbling within, with little economy, little food, an exploding population- recent census gave an average household size of 6 that is 4 children per family. They'll grow up in a crowded country with little economic prospects and therefore readily available for hire for anything. Recently on BRF one knowledgeable rakshak elucidated that Pakistan's installed electricity generation capacity is close to 23 GW, while actual output is closer to 10-12 GW- this is barely enough to meet the peak power requirements of Delhi and Mumbai combined, let alone power industries and homes across the nation.

What the the economic aspects for such a nation? I think one may find that Beggary, Thievery and Thuggery remains the only recourse for someone who does not wish to change, lives in delusions and denials and is consumed with self-loathing and hatred of the other for simply being better.

Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, with Pakistan, preventing their ability to achieve victory is not enough. We must prevent their ability to attempt. The attempt is the victory. To them, just because Ghori/Ghaznavi took dozens of attempts before they succeeded, they believe they still stand a chance. We must hit their ability to attempt.

As for actual Paki power generation, the Mumbai extended metropolitan area (Mumbai and its island suburbs, mainland suburbs such as Navi Mumbai, Panvel, Thane, etc.), draws 7 GW in non-A/C seasons, and about 10 GW in A/C seasons. Hence they're building a 9,960 MW nuclear plant in that region. It will be 100% allocated to Mumbai region.

 

[mayfair]

Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, with Pakistan, preventing their ability to achieve victory is not enough. We must prevent their ability to attempt. The attempt is the victory. To them, just because Ghori/Ghaznavi took dozens of attempts before they succeeded, they believe they still stand a chance. We must hit their ability to attempt.

As for actual Paki power generation, the Mumbai extended metropolitan area (Mumbai and its island suburbs, mainland suburbs such as Navi Mumbai, Panvel, Thane, etc.), draws 7 GW in non-A/C seasons, and about 10 GW in A/C seasons. Hence they're building a 9,960 MW nuclear plant in that region. It will be 100% allocated to Mumbai region.

Yes that can and must be done both figuratively and metaphorically. Actual demise of the Paki army would be possible, but it'll require a substantial ability to take hits, some major ones in the quest to deliver a crippling blow. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the fourfathers will not step in and immediately gather and reassemble a new jihadi force from the remnants of the old one.

Fourfathers have shown no signs of abandoning their munna in the region- there is enough baksheesh in the form of IMF grants, loans, fuel on credit, weapon systems , CSF etc to keep the Pakis afloat even if the head is bobbing up and down the surface. The Pakis will continue to be relevant existentially that is, till the fourfathers continue their IV support. So what can we do in the process

1. Strengthen ourselves politically and economically- successive governments seem to have recognised this albeit to varying degrees and the present especially so. Widen the gap, up the defence expenditure and watch the Pakis bleed in trying to match it- CSF et al help, but it does not help an angry abdul or ayesha or their children who go without food day after day. Something will give. Already, dephynation has become the norm instead of exception- it rankles the Pakis no end.

2. To distract from their internal strife, Paki army ups the ante against India- border firing, terror attacks etc. We need to up the ante on these too, be preemptive instead of reactive (hopefully that's what Doval is doing). A thwarted terror attack and a disproportionate Indian response to border attacks frustrates the Pakis no end- it's a blow to their ehhanddee and it's not enough to galvanise the population into uniting behind them in support. Moreover, the frustrated jihadis turn on their master for using them as canon fodder especially when the promised kuffar hoors do not materialise. Consequently, the internal strife worsens.

3. Ignore them. Nothing grates them more than the cold shoulder from India. Pakis cry themselves hoarse claiming that peace and prosperity in "sooth asia" is impossible without a jiziya being paid to them. The present GoI is hell bent on proving them wrong- economic and foreign policy initiatives are focussed on "Act East". S. Jaishankar is an adept China, Japan hand, not a Paki expert which means that Pakis are not a foreign policy priority for GoI- this hurts them, it grates them and there's little they can do about it apart from forthing and fuming and chest beating from the rafters.

4. Which brings us back to point two- they will attempt some big spectacular attacks and invove plausible denaibility with their supporters and well wishers in the Indian MSM starting from iRudaali to the rest of #MEDIAPIMPS, getting into the act; we saw the trailor during the terror boat saga. GoI faces a formidable array of forces stacked against Bharat- unfortunately it includes some of "our own" who have pimped themselves out for a few pieces of silver and a pat on the head from the gora saahibs; maybe they see themselves as the rulers of the new Hindoostan once they help their masters in the West and East take over India- after all they'll need local proxies innit? Who better than whisky swilling, cheese eating, wine appreciating, English speaking elites- but then that's a discussion for another topic.

 

[tarunraju]

Yes that can and must be done both figuratively and metaphorically. Actual demise of the Paki army would be possible, but it'll require a substantial ability to take hits, some major ones in the quest to deliver a crippling blow. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the fourfathers will not step in and immediately gather and reassemble a new jihadi force from the remnants of the old one.

Fourfathers have shown no signs of abandoning their munna in the region- there is enough baksheesh in the form of IMF grants, loans, fuel on credit, weapon systems , CSF etc to keep the Pakis afloat even if the head is bobbing up and down the surface. The Pakis will continue to be relevant existentially that is, till the fourfathers continue their IV support. So what can we do in the process

1. Strengthen ourselves politically and economically- successive governments seem to have recognised this albeit to varying degrees and the present especially so. Widen the gap, up the defence expenditure and watch the Pakis bleed in trying to match it- CSF et al help, but it does not help an angry abdul or ayesha or their children who go without food day after day. Something will give. Already, dephynation has become the norm instead of exception- it rankles the Pakis no end.

2. To distract from their internal strife, Paki army ups the ante against India- border firing, terror attacks etc. We need to up the ante on these too, be preemptive instead of reactive (hopefully that's what Doval is doing). A thwarted terror attack and a disproportionate Indian response to border attacks frustrates the Pakis no end- it's a blow to their ehhanddee and it's not enough to galvanise the population into uniting behind them in support. Moreover, the frustrated jihadis turn on their master for using them as canon fodder especially when the promised kuffar hoors do not materialise. Consequently, the internal strife worsens.

3. Ignore them. Nothing grates them more than the cold shoulder from India. Pakis cry themselves hoarse claiming that peace and prosperity in "sooth asia" is impossible without a jiziya being paid to them. The present GoI is hell bent on proving them wrong- economic and foreign policy initiatives are focussed on "Act East". S. Jaishankar is an adept China, Japan hand, not a Paki expert which means that Pakis are not a foreign policy priority for GoI- this hurts them, it grates them and there's little they can do about it apart from forthing and fuming and chest beating from the rafters.

4. Which brings us back to point two- they will attempt some big spectacular attacks and invove plausible denaibility with their supporters and well wishers in the Indian MSM starting from iRudaali to the rest of #MEDIAPIMPS, getting into the act; we saw the trailor during the terror boat saga. GoI faces a formidable array of forces stacked against Bharat- unfortunately it includes some of "our own" who have pimped themselves out for a few pieces of silver and a pat on the head from the gora saahibs; maybe they see themselves as the rulers of the new Hindoostan once they help their masters in the West and East take over India- after all they'll need local proxies innit? Who better than whisky swilling, cheese eating, wine appreciating, English speaking elites- but then that's a discussion for another topic.

Foreign policy toward Pakistan and China is dictated by Ajit Doval, even though it's Jaishankar's job. Jaishankar has been deputed to deal with everything else (US, NATO, Japan, etc.).

 

[Bangalorean]

@tarunraju, @mayfair, I think the only thing we need to focus on, is de-nuclearization of Pakis. Of course, we should publicly ignore them. But behind the scenes, the entire nation's foreign security and intelligence establishment must make unceasing efforts towards de-nuclearizing the Pakis. Once that is done, Pakis are finished. We really don't care what happens there subsequently.

 

[SajeevJino]

.

exactly @Bangalorean I always repeating the same in may other posts. stealing those nukes from Bakistani ground is the Ultimate Victory for us. I sure If we didn't do this Israel will do this one day

 

[mayfair]

@tarunraju, @mayfair, I think the only thing we need to focus on, is de-nuclearization of Pakis. Of course, we should publicly ignore them. But behind the scenes, the entire nation's foreign security and intelligence establishment must make unceasing efforts towards de-nuclearizing the Pakis. Once that is done, Pakis are finished. We really don't care what happens there subsequently.

Oh I agree that there must be much of the behind the scenes activity, but denuclearisation is not something we can or we should exclusively or even primarily focus on for a host of reasons

1. Paki nukes are scattered all over place, it's difficult to take them out simultaneously and even a wide spread all encompassing operation will not uncover all of them. It's not something we can do on our own, maybe a joint Indo-Israeli-US operation. Pakis understand this and thus are cranking out yellowcake and "bum" stuff at an increasing pace, making it even more challenging

2. Pakis are known to have placed some of their "newclear" assets in Saudi Barbaria alongside some TSPA units. Not to mention, Pkai nukes were initially supplied by "tallel than molehill" friend only. No guarantees that they'll not refurbish the stock once again, or even perhaps facilitate the transfer of NK nukes (which arrived there from Cheen via Pakhanaland) to their strategic partner.

3. Though, Paki gernails are largely bluff and bluster, the middle rung jihadi infested middle units are a different matter all together. The gernails will bark and shout about firing nukes at India, but they'll be aware that the first retaliation will take out all of Punjab, which their heartland- their farms, clubs, families, houses, coffee and cornflake factories, all are located here. All that will be gone in an instant. The middle rung have little attachment to those areas sure, but not so much as the senior gernails. Plus, they are ideologically committed to "Jihad fi sabiillah" and will have little reluctance in sacrificing themselves to the greater cause. If the denuclearisation attempts are less that successful, some nukes will fall into the arms of these folks and they in a fit of paranoia and rage will not think of engaging their atrophied brains before launching them into India.

So what can India do? Probably more of what we are already doing, albeit at an accelerated pace

1. Strengthen ourselves as I explained above.

2. Nukes are only as good as their delivery platforms- Paki nukes are deliverable either by their F-solahs or a host of painted missiles. We need strategies to neutralise both of them- increase the IAF firepower and ground level SAM batteries to take care of air delivery platforms. Accelerate the development of the missile shield and BMD to make it more challenging for Paki mijjiles to make it through.

Of course this means that Pakis will probably fire more rockets to overwhelm the missile shield and hope that some of them slip through, but this gives us a chance. Unlike fissile material, missiles may not be so readily available from the tallel friend and Pakis lack the infrastructure to mass produce such complex systems on an industrial scale. So our attempts should also aim at preemptive strikes at their deliver systems- take out their air fields before solahs and bandars can take to air. Target missile salos and give our BMD a fighting chance.

In my opinion, the best strategy of all is keep the Pakis on their toes- thwart their attempts to stoke terror in India, respond disproportionately to their border shenanigans and at the same time ensure that they do not unite against us- ladne do saalon ko aapas mein, let them stew in their own juice and do not provide any oxygen to their military or civil establishment- no aman ka tamasha, no track 1 thoo or whatever.

Pakis fear irrelevance more than annihilation, it's a blow to their imaginary ehhanddee and sovirginity in one. Keep landing them one by one and the Pakis will oblige and do the rest.

 

[Bangalorean]

@mayfair, I realize the challenges that denuclearization will entail. I have wondered about this problem for a long time. Israel successfully prevented Iran from going nuclear by following a multi-pronged approach. They assassinated Iran's top nuke scientists, sabotaged their factories, released deadly viruses into Iranian computers, etc. etc. Of course, Israel also had solid American support. Sanctions, sabre-rattling and threats by USA, etc. helped Israel a great deal.

I wonder how we can begin this onerous task of de-nuclearizing the Pakis. Personally, I feel that if we manage to achieve that, we've guaranteed our security.

I have thought about purchasing photochor Khan and Musharrat - offer them secret asylum in India with loads of money. Then, start a targeted assassination campaign against Paki nuke scientists. Release viruses, sabotage their nuke reactors... of course, I am sure that it will require a joint US-Israel-India operation. I think all our security agencies need to brainstorm and come up with something.

 

[mayfair]

@Bangalorean

Of course Israel was able to do it not only to Iran but to Iraq and Syria as well. They would have done the same to Pakis as well if we had assented in 1980s, since they needed our bases for refuelling and turnaround. Moreover, none of the Paki fourfathers wanted Iran to have a nuke, especially Saudis (China kept its cards close to the chest).

However, the biggest difference is that Iran DOES NOT have nukes, not yet. Pakis already DO and, the fourfathers are very much interested that Pakis keep their nukes. India is up against overwhelming odds.

Offing Paki scientists and technicians will not necessarily impact their nuke programs. Why? Because the horse has bolted, the nukes are already there even if the the know how was not developed there.

Pakis are simply the end users who only need to know how to tighten the screws when it comes to mating the warhead and the core. Which is why it may make sense to target their delivery platforms- solahs and M-11/Rodong. They have 80 odd F-solahs capable of nuke delivery and an unspecified number of painted rockets. These need to be challenged, strongly and effectively.

 

[tarunraju]

@tarunraju, @mayfair, I think the only thing we need to focus on, is de-nuclearization of Pakis. Of course, we should publicly ignore them. But behind the scenes, the entire nation's foreign security and intelligence establishment must make unceasing efforts towards de-nuclearizing the Pakis. Once that is done, Pakis are finished. We really don't care what happens there subsequently.

The "keep us stable or nukes will fall into Jihadi hands" bogey has been played for too long. If PA is crumbling, there will be an international call for its nuclear disarmament.

Also, their strategy right now is "a warhead for every district headquarters in India." Ours should be "enough warheads to nuke every sunni-Islamic majority city on the planet" (Israeli strategy). Let Pakistanis risk a retaliatory strike on Mecca, before deciding on a first-strike.

 

[Compersion]

if they can do it anyone can. long live pakistan.

oh but wait ... (if one looks closer)