Ominous winds of change in Asia

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Rowdy, May 17, 2015.

  1. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    • The events of the past few weeks, mostly unnoticed as a gestalt, by Indians, indicate an unsettling turn of events towards increased strategic friction in Asia.

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    KAZUHIRO NOGI—AFP/Getty Images Japan's Self-Defense Force honor guards prepare for a welcoming ceremony of new Defense Minister Gen Nakatani in Tokyo on Dec. 25, 2014

    When Russia invaded Ukraine following the events at Euromaidan, the West lashed out at Putin with the full force of economic sanctions. Newspapers were filled with reports of ruble depreciation, the sinking popularity of Putin and the inevitable collapse of the Russian oligarchs. Except none of that appears to be happening. Beyond the immediate regional geopolitical issues, the Ukraine crisis did make one thing clear. The West is losing it's self proclaimed ability to implement and maintain a "Rules based global order". A signal Beijing seems to have read all too well.

    Pakistan's tame rebuttal to Saudi Arabia and it's ardent embrace of China made clear it's new alignment.It was probably no surprise to most Pakistanis that the poster put up during Xi's visit featured Xi himself in greater prominence while pushing Nawaz Sharif to the background. China's $46bn corridor and energy projects, signed on very harsh terms, have, at least in the midterm, wedded Pakistan to Chinese fortunes. China is , apart from a port at Gwadar, pursuing a military base in Djibouti , right at the mouth of the strategically located Gulf of Aden.
    Parallely, China has been expanding it's footprint in the South China Sea. China continues unabated in its construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea, which are big enough to host airstrips.​

    To be sure, Chinese moves have not gone un-reciprocated. Japan and the US increased their co-operation to a "global" scale, including space. This was promptly followed by the very controversial first step towards removing "Article 9" from the Japanese Constitution which forbids the use of force to settle disputes. The new amendment enabled Japan to "to exercise the minimum force necessary if a country with close ties to Tokyo was attacked and certain conditions were met.", an undeniably aggressive stance. PM Abe, who holds a majority, has previously indicated his preference to remove article 9, a move heavily opposed by the political left in Japan.

    India now finds itself in the unenviable position as the target of multiple degrees of threats. Apart from infiltration and constant LOC firing violations in the west and rising Islamic extremism to the east in Bangladesh, where atheist bloggers have been hacked to death on the streets, India recently saw a spurt in violence in its North east by NSCN militants. This is in addition to the rapid infrastructure build up on the other side of the Tibet border.

    India's government, having already taken stop-gap measures like ordering 36 Rafael fighters in flyaway condition and the purchase of 145 Ultra Light Howitzers, suffers from long term structural weaknesses. Chronic poverty, abysmal HDI and a lack of sufficient skilled population prevents industrialization of this continent sized country. These problems are exacerbated by a fractured political class which can not pass critical reforms to archaic and impractical laws.

    These events should act as a wake up call to Indians and their strategic planners. Defense project cost overruns and deadline misses that have become the norm are leading to strategic disadvantages and costing precious capital for a country that has little oil of it's own. In the end India may find itself in a war, it never adequately prepared for.

    -Rowdy, DFI
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2015
    Screambowl, LETHALFORCE, sob and 6 others like this.
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  3. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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  4. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    Good attempt, it summarizes the current geopolitical strains in Asia and India's unpreparedness.
     
  5. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    You(and others) can add a few points and we can put it up on the front page.
     
  6. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    The reason i did not make any suggestion was because it might become very general and expansive. There are a few points that can be added here like the nuclear war threat looming over Asia and also climate change. But i think those topics are subjects on their own.

     
  7. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    India's NFU makes it hard to see a Nuke war with china. I mean if chinese troops (hypothetically) take over tawang will India Nuke beijing. If they stop advancing at AP, I doubt India will use nukes.
     
  8. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    If we are unable to resolve our border disputes and get on with other things that make it impossible for any country to go to war with us then we surely need to be worried. Now they are cutting out the entire territory of J&K from our map. This nonsense will come to head some day. There doesn't seem to be any end to their claims. Pakistan will play the role of spoilt sport as usual.. because its benefiting from this Chindia race. Nukes are a deterrent but whether they will help us in neutralising a territory grab is something we need to be focused on.

     
  9. Bhadra

    Bhadra Defence Professionals Defence Professionals Senior Member

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    Let the buddy pair carry this topic ahead and try to define India's role in South East Asia, South Asia and West Asia.
     
  10. Bhadra

    Bhadra Defence Professionals Defence Professionals Senior Member

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    To use a hindi saying... West ke Dane Bik Gaye hain...

    Pakistan position on Yaman was dictated bydesire to save their own country from burning rather than anything else. Pakistan cant distance itself from Sunni Uma. That is impossible.

    Lots and lots of money ... wo dane kharid rahen hain

    US fortunes are closely tied up with China. China is now unstoppable unless they hit a bottom in their economic bottom.. still the size of their economics , wealth and country is too big for USA and Japan to handle..

    So Asia men rahana hai to Chinese sikho..
     
  11. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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  12. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Looks good. Expand it a little bit giving details.

    Add details to 3rd last para on developments in Bangladesh and north east where all the rival groups have come together. Also 2nd last para is too general. There are enough skilled people in India, it is just utilization of resources which is a bigger problem. You can rather talk about random acquisition policy which is sub-optimal and needs a more strategic dimension.
     
  13. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    I'm a little busy today (multitasking!) ... you can edit too and we can put on the Front page under joint aliases ..... knock yourself out. I license this work under creative commons.
     
  14. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Ok. Will try to edit at night. You have such a big heart! Lets wait if other people chip in any other suggestions......................................
     
  15. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Senior Member

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    Hey @Rowdy

    May be the india-Bangladesh border dispute resolution needs a mention here. It shows india is willing to resolve border disputes diplomatically rather than militarily.
     
  16. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    I see what you mean. But do you think that solving the land agreement peacefully means that islamists in BD will leave India alone? They will engage in subversion activities through their caliphate in West bengal.
     
  17. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Senior Member

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    My argument is that border dispute resolution is a start. Next step will probably be fencing the entire length. After fencing lesser illegal trespassing should happen . Lesser trespassing might lead to restricting the flow of bad elements from other side. Lesser trespassing means lesser vote-bank policies in WB. Over a period of time current vote bank politics should have no relevance in WB. Islamists can survive only under political patronage, if no patronage then less influence on society.


    More importantly it is imperative for the world to know that india is willing to solve problems via dialogue and a amicable solution.
     
  18. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Sorry bro. That is simply not how the world works.
    a) There are BSF who will activly take money.
    b)There are seculars on this side who will be aided and will aid islamists.
    c)Vote bank politics is here to stay
    d) Nobody gives a flyin f*ck if India solves problems via dialogue or not. China does not solve problems via dialogue and is more respected.
     
  19. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Senior Member

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    Point taken. May be I am too much of an idealist on this issue.
     
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  20. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Excellent article rowdy. Very well written and original.
     
  21. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    feel free to edit. If it turns out good, we can put it up on the front page.
     
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