OBOR News & Developments

[Mikesingh]

@lcafanboy @vinuzap @Mikesingh @LETHALFORCE @Indx TechStyle
@IndianHawk @scatterStorm @bose @Kshatriya87 @sthf @Hardi
@Cutting Edge 2



foreign media including UN and whatever always loooove to tell their same old regurgitated grandmothers tales of india versus pakistan ...... they love to pat themselves on the back for setting the two against each other and dream that the enmity will continue forever and so all they have to do is sit tight and watch

point is my take is that china pak is going to have an explosive end within the decade

ok so i just put my neck on the line .....my take is that pak is just too smart to end up like sri lanka or whatever else where china can put the knife of debt to their necks and hold pak to ransom

my take is that pak WILL NOT PAY !! when china comes to collect in a decade pak will tell them sorry we dont have it and give more time , so maybe china will give more time and ask for extension of lease of gwadar

i believe pak will allow that but if cpchina wants more i think pak will tell them to git lost

pak has played out usa and their mentality is to play everybody out and i feel that includes china as well ...... so my take is look for the chi-pak falling out

by that time pak will probably be stronger in many ways so that will also have to counter balance the fact that israel knows the only muzzie country with the bomb is packland not iran ..... so like it or not israel will have to muzzle pakland some how

overall scenario - pak will be reduced to where it is no longer a threat or potential threat to israel ...... will be reduced so that they cant supply nukes to anyone else to aim at israel either

I will differ a bit. The Pakis ain't so smart after all or they wouldn't be up shit creek without a paddle as they are now. The fact is that Pak is soon going to get trapped in a debt cycle and will be unable to pay back the Chinese loans. This will result in Pak bartering away vast tracts of land to the Chinese. Pak will then officially become an autonomous region of China like Tibet.

I hope you've read Dawn Leaks -2 which paints an extremely grim picture of Pakistan where China in the name of the CPEC will control everything from media to agriculture to industry to Pak's stock exchange and promote Chinese culture and language through media and education!

By about 2040 or even earlier, Pak will cease to exist as we know it. It would probably be renamed as Pakistan Autonomous Region, which will become the 6th such region of China.

 

[Cutting Edge 2]

@lcafanboy @vinuzap @Mikesingh @LETHALFORCE @Indx TechStyle
@IndianHawk @scatterStorm @bose @Kshatriya87 @sthf @Hardi
@Cutting Edge 2



foreign media including UN and whatever always loooove to tell their same old regurgitated grandmothers tales of india versus pakistan ...... they love to pat themselves on the back for setting the two against each other and dream that the enmity will continue forever and so all they have to do is sit tight and watch

point is my take is that china pak is going to have an explosive end within the decade

ok so i just put my neck on the line .....my take is that pak is just too smart to end up like sri lanka or whatever else where china can put the knife of debt to their necks and hold pak to ransom

my take is that pak WILL NOT PAY !! when china comes to collect in a decade pak will tell them sorry we dont have it and give more time , so maybe china will give more time and ask for extension of lease of gwadar

i believe pak will allow that but if cpchina wants more i think pak will tell them to git lost

pak has played out usa and their mentality is to play everybody out and i feel that includes china as well ...... so my take is look for the chi-pak falling out

by that time pak will probably be stronger in many ways so that will also have to counter balance the fact that israel knows the only muzzie country with the bomb is packland not iran ..... so like it or not israel will have to muzzle pakland some how

overall scenario - pak will be reduced to where it is no longer a threat or potential threat to israel ...... will be reduced so that they cant supply nukes to anyone else to aim at israel either

Interesting analysis. IMO we all know Pak isn't going to pay back the money. They will pull all sorts of stunts to stall payment process. Pak has a history of turning against their masters after money tap is dry. On the other hand China has a history of backstabbing anyone who trusts them. Both are perfect match for each other.

I also want to add to that Pak's recent move to join Saudi-US, anti-Iran alliance will put dent to Chinese plans of development. China and Russia have good relations with Iran where Pak is a slave of Arabs.

IMO In the end Pak-China relation will end up like Pak-US relations.

 

[scatterStorm]

@lcafanboy @vinuzap @Mikesingh @LETHALFORCE @Indx TechStyle
@IndianHawk @scatterStorm @bose @Kshatriya87 @sthf @Hardi
@Cutting Edge 2



foreign media including UN and whatever always loooove to tell their same old regurgitated grandmothers tales of india versus pakistan ...... they love to pat themselves on the back for setting the two against each other and dream that the enmity will continue forever and so all they have to do is sit tight and watch

point is my take is that china pak is going to have an explosive end within the decade

ok so i just put my neck on the line .....my take is that pak is just too smart to end up like sri lanka or whatever else where china can put the knife of debt to their necks and hold pak to ransom

my take is that pak WILL NOT PAY !! when china comes to collect in a decade pak will tell them sorry we dont have it and give more time , so maybe china will give more time and ask for extension of lease of gwadar

i believe pak will allow that but if cpchina wants more i think pak will tell them to git lost

pak has played out usa and their mentality is to play everybody out and i feel that includes china as well ...... so my take is look for the chi-pak falling out

by that time pak will probably be stronger in many ways so that will also have to counter balance the fact that israel knows the only muzzie country with the bomb is packland not iran ..... so like it or not israel will have to muzzle pakland some how

overall scenario - pak will be reduced to where it is no longer a threat or potential threat to israel ...... will be reduced so that they cant supply nukes to anyone else to aim at israel either

All I know is that, economically, they are still safe as long as they will play the card of being a "poor Islamic nation" yet have an appetite of buying military hardware, and there will be other Islamic nation trying to defend there Islamic pride. They will try any tact to get the funding from UN, IMF or any nation who has it's own geo-political interest in this chess game, after all they hold a piece of land on world map.

Chinese are smart ones over here, they have a leverage in-terms of risk free bonds ... guaranteed to be paid back, debt is so staggering on them now that even bathrooms space is not available for an average civilian as a form of payback.

Note: it ain't the likes of AIG (an insurance firm) who were not able to payback guaranteed returns in the world economic crisis of 2008-9, even though they signed bonds with partners but later found that cost of overruns where far greater than there "net worth", company filed bankruptcy later.

Also note that USA had no leverage in-terms of tangible entities, they only sold military hardware remember, and aid is digital currency, not tangible indeed.

In contrast,

Chinks have learned this lesson and now leverage assets in terms of tangible things, such as gold, oil and property, we are talking about capital in the form of large scale economical infra-structures, which is a tangible entity and can be taken back either by diplomacy or by force. Chinese have both.

So if failed state of Pakistan decides to show some ass, Chinese will make such of a shit storm that paki trade and invested capital will have net worth of 0 (shareholders and venture capitalist will pull out there investments like a man's dick from a warm sock that now has become dry and less lubricated) eventually pulling an axe on themselves. EHMs will do the job in the end.

Repercussions will continue to haunt them, as there money will loose it's credibility, what happen'd to Greece in 2012. This Could lead to civil unrest or even civil war as majority of the population is still uneducated.

For more info, here's an article: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-20

Bottom line is: There are many who want's to continue squeezing milk from this cow, if cow grows more horns and supply less milk, that cow will be rendered useless. But again cow can be, again fed and made healthier and milk for some other different owner.

"Dilemma is that failed state of Pakistan was always a slave at one side of the line, crossing the line ... they offer there naked body to be disgraced by another".

How do we deal with such nymphomaniac? Answer is ... take back there "drive" that lust from them, lust for Kashmir, arms etc by purging them on both fronts, "economically" and "diplomatically" and of course there's the third option which to me is more reassuring ... wage war in the next decade and render them barren and useless like Libya and Syria.

 

[Cutting Edge 2]

UN warns about financial risks in China’s One Belt One Road project

NEW DELHI: The United Nations, close on the heels of OBOR Summit between May 14-16, has raised a red flag over economic, financial, social and environmental risks of China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) across a number of countries that are part of the mega connectivity project.

A recently concluded UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Study (UNESCAP) has warned of financial risks in countries in south and central Asia where China's announced investment value under BRI is high compared to the relative size of the economy of the recipient country.

The $15 billion China-Uzbekistan investment deal signed in late 2013 is roughly equivalent to a quarter of Uzbekistan's GDP. Similarly, the $37 billion China-Kazakhstan cooperation agreement signed in late 2014 and early 2015 and the $46 billion China-Pakistan agreement in April 2015 each represent over a fifth of GDP level in Kazakhstan and Pakistan, according to the UN study.

China's commitment to Pakistan has now reached $ 62 billion. Similarly, the $24 billion China-Bangladesh agreement in October 2016 is equivalent to almost 20% of Bangladesh's GDP.

"External account indicators for some of these economies are relatively weak. In Kazakhstan, the current account deficit amounted to about 6% of GDP in 2016, while external debt stood at over 80% of GDP in 2015. In Pakistan, foreign external reserves are rather small at about 4 months of imports in early 2017," said the report.

"Relatively easy access to large foreign loans for infrastructure projects, even if most of them tend to be on a concessional basis, can lead to risks through a slight deterioration in trade balance, undermining macroeconomic and balance of payments stability in small economies with underdeveloped financial markets and less effective debt management," the study said regarding the nature of the Chinese loans.

It is no secret that Sri Lanka has run into a huge debt trap by welcoming Chinese funded projects. Sri Lankan debt exceeds $60 billion, more than 10 percent of that is owed to the Chinese. To resolve its debt crisis, the Sri Lankan government agreed to convert its debt into equity. This may lead to Chinese ownership of the projects finally.

The financing for BRI or OBOR related infrastructure projects will require large scale capital investments. An estimate by the Chinese government suggests total investment by China would amount to about $4 trillion. The McKinsey Global Institute (2016) and the Asian Development Bank (2017) estimated that infrastructure development needs in Asia are about $1.6 to $1.7 trillion per year on average in the years to 2030, according to UNESCAP study.

"On the social front, displacement and marginalization of local communities and indigenous groups is possible as a result of land grabbing and changing communities. Similarly, workers in industries that will no longer be competitive after opening up of markets could be marginalized. Poor working conditions, especially for migrant workers and construction workers in remote areas, are also a concern...More broadly, social unrest and ethnic conflicts could escalate in societies and areas where management of BRI projects is viewed as unfair and lacking a people-centred approach. Finally, despite notable economic benefits, it is not clear whether such gains will be inclusive," the study underlined.

On the environmental front, construction and operation of large-scale infrastructure projects under BRI is likely to result in land use changes and poorer air and water quality. In addition to the direct environmental impacts, new infrastructure, particularly transport infrastructure, may also cause indirect environmental impacts by facilitating access to areas previously reserved for environmental purposes, such as protected forest, the UN study said.

"Simply channelling exorbitant amounts of money into other countries is not going to be enough for realising the New Silk Route. The implementation of the initiative calls for something more — understanding and adapting to the internal processes of BRI participants...Like a chain, the Belt and Road is as strong as its weakest link and public perceptions toward China can become an existential issue for Beijing's ambitious initiative," said Daniel Balazs, a graduate from China's Tongji University, Shanghai, while writing a piece for Australia-based East Asia Forum.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...elt-one-road-project/articleshow/58831087.cms

 

[Krusty]

Relatively easy access to large foreign loans for infrastructure projects, even if most of them tend to be on a concessional basis, can lead to risks through a slight deterioration in trade balance, undermining macroeconomic and balance of payments stability in small economies with underdeveloped financial markets and less effective debt management,

For the record, This is exactly what %^*&ed up Greece

 

[vinuzap]

india at this moment doesn't care about UN and only will use it to its advantage

china will extract pound of flesh if they (porkis) are not willing to pay by co-coinciding with india as chinese people are pro friendly with india unlike the communist government which is not the case with islamic pakistan and share the same dharmic religion, infact pakistan in past has allready given part of kashmir to china in 63 and attacked afterwards in 65 and was royally screwed

in 62 when china attacked india in the same way in north east like it did in Korea with America india had nothing now it has three army corps of 100,000 mountain troops, backed by high-altitude air bases and a network of new roads and supply depots in north east alone and china will never mess with india even after 62 india destroyed that arrogance in war of 67 and 89 and annexed Sikkim right under there nose in 67 and arunachal in 87

again during that time pakistan attacked siachin(in 87 and 89 ) and was royally screwed with loss of land during the time when USSR was being balkanized imagine the consequences now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathu_La_and_Cho_La_incidents
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_Sino-Indian_skirmish


china forever will look to use pork as proxy which once US did to counter india's rise as superpower and at the same time no sane country in world will allow terrorist republic of porkistan to be any decent value and it will always be the buffer of instability till the time its not balkanised

don't underestimate the soft power of india

relation with US improved after indian became the powerful lobby infact the second most influential group after jews and indian culture which is on rise in china

 

[lcafanboy]

3000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

 

[roma]

I will differ a bit. The Pakis ain't so smart after all or they wouldn't be up shit creek without a paddle as they are now. The fact is that Pak is soon going to get trapped in a debt cycle and will be unable to pay back the Chinese loans. This will result in Pak bartering away vast tracts of land to the Chinese. Pak will then officially become an autonomous region of China like Tibet.

I hope you've read Dawn Leaks -2 which paints an extremely grim picture of Pakistan where China in the name of the CPEC will control everything from media to agriculture to industry to Pak's stock exchange and promote Chinese culture and language through media and education!

By about 2040 or even earlier, Pak will cease to exist as we know it. It would probably be renamed as Pakistan Autonomous Region, which will become the 6th such region of China.

hahahah nice one there btw .... i appreciate your post !
for me the 200 million and more by the time the cpec blows itself up , those 200 million including pathans , no way are they gonna suck up china culture and song and dance
that is as much a china fairytale pipe dream as their population demographic stumped situation ( and i will post that in another thread !) ( now done ! )
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/india-1-since-2013-ccps-lies-and-fairytales.79219/

china has basically painted themselves into a corner .....they wont totally collapse but they are in for a serious downturn

Elliott-wave enthusiasts will call it a wave 4 ..... the best is a plateau but id say its a downward four and a failed 5th which wont go up ...... chinas mass production strategy is failing and is not the template for the future .....they'll have to go through another cultural revolution

my take is that pathan and punjabi jihadi forces plus other islamic brothers will give prcchina a very tough time in the former packland ...... it will be worse than american adventurism in vietnam

in fact there is high possibility of it filtering into china's presently called xinjiang province and i expect serious turmoil there - i think china may have to give it up otherwise it will take a very heavy toll on security deployments and ONLY if US challenges china in the SCS will it amount to something ........ it can break china up if the usa wants to

At this point in time it is basically the end of the road for ccpchina - they have overstated their abilities

@lcafanboy
@vinuzap
@Mikesingh
@LETHALFORCE
@Indx TechStyle
@IndianHawk
@scatterStorm
@bose
@Kshatriya87
@sthf
@Hardi
@Cutting Edge 2
@pmaitra

 

[sorcerer]

I will differ a bit. The Pakis ain't so smart after all or they wouldn't be up shit creek without a paddle as they are now. The fact is that Pak is soon going to get trapped in a debt cycle and will be unable to pay back the Chinese loans. This will result in Pak bartering away vast tracts of land to the Chinese. Pak will then officially become an autonomous region of China like Tibet.

I hope you've read Dawn Leaks -2 which paints an extremely grim picture of Pakistan where China in the name of the CPEC will control everything from media to agriculture to industry to Pak's stock exchange and promote Chinese culture and language through media and education!

By about 2040 or even earlier, Pak will cease to exist as we know it. It would probably be renamed as Pakistan Autonomous Region, which will become the 6th such region of China.

pakistan is not Tajak.

Thats what chinese think they can do with pak...get land in return..but pakis know they aint giving no land to chinese as when time comes to pay back, pak will pay back in terrorist to East Turkestan.
And we can see USA supporting pakistan with weapons ..Mohd. Rambo Version 2 when the time is ripe against china with the song playing loud like how china duped pakis.
well!! which everyone know already.


pak media is promoting an anti china line just to gain momentum for a resistance. Its the reserved war cry...already.

pak is the protector and benefactor of a belief system with nukes and china wont have it any easy..but that will be make fall of china much easier.

pak will fall eventually as it have no where else to go, but its not definitely not the chinese way.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

http://indianexpress.com/article/wo...bor-us-infrastructure-projects-india-4671773/

US revives infra projects in Asia with India as key player to counter China’s OBOR

 

[sorcerer]

http://indianexpress.com/article/wo...bor-us-infrastructure-projects-india-4671773/

US revives infra projects in Asia with India as key player to counter China’s OBOR

Good.!!!
Wow!!!
AWESOME!!!!
Now we have not just ONE but TWO pipelines through the terrorist state of pakistan.
WTF!!! who is soo eager to feed the terrorists with RANSOM money!!

What happened to this ENLIGHTENMENT???

India, Iran discuss undersea gas pipeline bypassing Pakistan

http://www.thehindu.com/business/in...ipeline-bypassing-pakistan/article7958494.ece

Any news on the status of this!!

 

[Nicky G]

Now UN has concerns over OBOR.

Its so clear that even someone with the very basic knowledge of economics should understand the risks of large investments in small countries.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Good.!!!
Wow!!!
AWESOME!!!!
Now we have not just ONE but TWO pipelines through the terrorist state of pakistan.
WTF!!! who is soo eager to feed the terrorists with RANSOM money!!

What happened to this ENLIGHTENMENT???

India, Iran discuss undersea gas pipeline bypassing Pakistan

http://www.thehindu.com/business/in...ipeline-bypassing-pakistan/article7958494.ece

Any news on the status of this!!

IIRC this way cancelled long ago?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[no smoking]

Now UN has concerns over OBOR.

Its so clear that even someone with the very basic knowledge of economics should understand the risks of large investments in small countries.

Anyone even without basic economic knowledge would understand that any business investment involves risk. The question is whether the potential return is worth taking this risk.

 

[hit&run]

Anyone even without basic economic knowledge would understand that any business investment involves risk. The question is whether the potential return is worth taking this risk.

There are legally prescribed practises to run a multilateral Trade. Potential of good returns cannot be an excuse to not address the same.

Indian government has already raised its concerns on such practises along with sovereignty issue as China was trying to play clever by Tagging CEPC with OBAR.

"connectivity initiatives must follow principles of financial responsibility to avoid projects that would create unsustainable debt burden for communities; balanced ecological and environmental protection and preservation standards; transparent assessment of project costs; and skill and technology transfer to help long term running and maintenance of the assets created by local communities."

 

[Mikesingh]

pak media is promoting an anti china line just to gain momentum for a resistance. Its the reserved war cry...already.

Interesting point! I noticed that too! Paki media of late has been bashing the Chinese though not directly but through the CPEC issue.

 

[Mikesingh]

Good.!!!
Wow!!!
AWESOME!!!!
Now we have not just ONE but TWO pipelines through the terrorist state of pakistan.
WTF!!! who is soo eager to feed the terrorists with RANSOM money!!

What happened to this ENLIGHTENMENT???

India, Iran discuss undersea gas pipeline bypassing Pakistan

http://www.thehindu.com/business/in...ipeline-bypassing-pakistan/article7958494.ece

Any news on the status of this!!

This was the schedule. But I haven't the faintest idea of where the project stands as of now.

 

[Nicky G]

Anyone even without basic economic knowledge would understand that any business investment involves risk. The question is whether the potential return is worth taking this risk.

Risking sovereignty of ones nation is very different from normal risks associated with any business venture.

 

[scatterStorm]

pakistan is not Tajak.

Thats what chinese think they can do with pak...get land in return..but pakis know they aint giving no land to chinese as when time comes to pay back, pak will pay back in terrorist to East Turkestan.
And we can see USA supporting pakistan with weapons ..Mohd. Rambo Version 2 when the time is ripe against china with the song playing loud like how china duped pakis.
well!! which everyone know already.


pak media is promoting an anti china line just to gain momentum for a resistance. Its the reserved war cry...already.

pak is the protector and benefactor of a belief system with nukes and china wont have it any easy..but that will be make fall of china much easier.

pak will fall eventually as it have no where else to go, but its not definitely not the chinese way.

I have a question sir, can't china take it back by force if they fail to get through there investments via diplomacy or legal ordeal?

None would question them as they invested there capital ... though it is very unlikely they would use force but eventually world would paint these countries as "defaulters" thus making any VC or investors pull out there money from countries like Pakistan or Sri Lanka etc. This would make there currency weak to the point that it would eventually collapse there economy.

Pakistan on the other hand will use its military to purchase arms, but the recent article tells that they've left only 4 months worth of credit to resupply there military with arms after that they are going down like Soviet Union!

 

[Kshatriya87]

This was the schedule. But I haven't the faintest idea of where the project stands as of now.

I was following this keenly as I was interested in laying this pipeline. But suddenly the news & updates stopped. Don't know whats happening. Maybe financial issues.