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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ndia-to-account-for-half-of-world-growth.html
Robert Subbaraman, Hong Kong-based chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc., gave his views on the outlook for Asian economies in 2011 in a teleconference call today.
On global and Asian growth:
"For the advanced countries, it's going to be sluggish growth again next year. Not a double-dip, not a recession -- because we think the policy makers will do whatever it takes to avoid that happening."
"Of that 4.3 percent global growth, China and India would account half of it, and the whole of the emerging market will account for three quarters of it. So it would really show you how emerging markets, led by Asia, are driving global growth."
"We reckon Asia, excluding Japan, can now grow at its full potential even with the G-3 economies growing at only 1 to 2 percent."
On China's growth:
"For China, we are bullish, we are expecting 9.8 percent growth next year."
"Even though China is now the world's second-biggest economy, it's still a low-income economy, GDP per capita of about four and a half thousand dollars, similar to Japan in the mid-1970s."
"China is still very much in the sweet spot of economic development, still a lot of room to build out the central-west of China with investments. But we are particularly bullish on consumption."
On Hong Kong's risk:
"It's importing the Fed's quantitative easing when its economy is increasingly linked to China's. That makes it the most exposed in the region, in our view, to an asset bubble."
Robert Subbaraman, Hong Kong-based chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc., gave his views on the outlook for Asian economies in 2011 in a teleconference call today.
On global and Asian growth:
"For the advanced countries, it's going to be sluggish growth again next year. Not a double-dip, not a recession -- because we think the policy makers will do whatever it takes to avoid that happening."
"Of that 4.3 percent global growth, China and India would account half of it, and the whole of the emerging market will account for three quarters of it. So it would really show you how emerging markets, led by Asia, are driving global growth."
"We reckon Asia, excluding Japan, can now grow at its full potential even with the G-3 economies growing at only 1 to 2 percent."
On China's growth:
"For China, we are bullish, we are expecting 9.8 percent growth next year."
"Even though China is now the world's second-biggest economy, it's still a low-income economy, GDP per capita of about four and a half thousand dollars, similar to Japan in the mid-1970s."
"China is still very much in the sweet spot of economic development, still a lot of room to build out the central-west of China with investments. But we are particularly bullish on consumption."
On Hong Kong's risk:
"It's importing the Fed's quantitative easing when its economy is increasingly linked to China's. That makes it the most exposed in the region, in our view, to an asset bubble."
