Nightmare 2012: Chinese Special Forces take Siliguri

Discussion in 'China' started by Super Commando Dhruva, Apr 17, 2010.

  1. Super Commando Dhruva

    Super Commando Dhruva Regular Member

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    [​IMG]
    Bharat Verma

    India has the potential to be to Asia what America is to the world - a symbol of hope, liberty and freedom.

    Closed societies like China or Pakistan do not fit the bill. Due to authoritarian regimes in Beijing and Islamabad, in times to come they will remain preoccupied with growing internal societal turmoil.

    Therefore, they will naturally tend to threaten democratic India, militarily and with the help of their irregular forces to divert attention from the brewing internal storm. Also because on one hand, the Indian democracy negates their authoritarian philosophy, and on the other, the Union is perceived as a soft target to be conquered or ruptured.

    But technology driven 21st century cannot be China’s century in Asia as is being touted by its proxy Pakistan or the Chinese themselves. Simply because these are very brittle, regressive and perpetually paranoid societies. Societies that cannot sustain such enlarged influence and get into an over reach. While the People’s Liberation Army, the largest in the world, consists of 3.5 million soldiers to project power, Beijing employs whopping 21 million to police internal dissent.

    Military threat from such dictatorial regimes to free societies like India will increase as the western democracies retreat from Asia. There already exists a severe trust deficit between China and the small countries in the region.

    India is the perhaps the only country in Asia that can boast of the potential to occupy the strategic high ground gradually being vacated by the retreating western forces, provided it develops offensive orientation at the political level.

    Unlike China, its soft power increasingly impacts on Asia. The young demographic profile will continue to propel Indian economy to greater heights at least till end of 2050. China’s ageing profile shows trends that it will, first grow old then rich, unlike Japan, which grew rich then old. India if governed fairly well, will grow rich and then old like Japan.

    India’s multi-ethnic, multi-cultural and multi-religious society is the melting pot in Asia that benefits from rich diversity and open society. However, it is not as fortunate to be situated geographically in a safe haven like America, which is surrounded by nations with similar values.

    THE HISTORICAL THREAT

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    Historically, the direction of demographic flow for centuries saw invasions from Central Asia to capture Delhi. Every fifty to hundred years, the subcontinent due to the genius of natives tends to generate wealth. From time immemorial this attracted hordes of invaders from Central Asia. Delhi Durbar was unable to defend itself as it neglected its military. Time and again, the rulers in Delhi were subjugated, as their incompetence in wielding the military was pathological.

    Once again India is generating vast wealth. Once again it refuses to defend it!
    Despite historical lessons of defeat at the hands of marauding armies, Delhi Durbar’s incompetence and ignorance in equipping the excellent military machine inherited from the British is again on display.

    Today the danger of disruption to the Union is much higher than in the previous centuries. Worse, the lack of offensive orientation in political thinking degrades the ability of the military to defend the Union from the extraordinary threat developing on its borders.

    The level of danger continues to creep north from “orange” to “red” on our land borders primarily on two counts. First, as a deception plan Pakistan on its birth professed to be secular, while in reality the leaders wanted a purely Islamic state. As a result the minority Hindu population of more than thirteen percent in a population of 76 million in 1947 got reduced to barely two percent even as the population of Pakistan increased in 2004 to 156 million.

    After refusing to share power with the Bengalis in the East and breaking up their country, the Pakistani Sunnis, not satisfied with this calibrated purge, now want to eliminate the Shias and expel the Ahmadiyas from Islam.

    In its devious journey towards fundamentalist Islam, it also wants to lock the women folk inside their homes under Taliban diktat, thus negating fifty percent of its population. This dangerous religious philosophy based on extreme form of imported Wahabi Islam is intolerant of worldview of others, wields nuclear weapons, nurtures a Talibanised army that runs a large irregular guerrilla force solely motivated by Islamic fundamentalism, and partners with China.

    The ideology of Pakistan is in direct confrontation with the values cherished by India.

    Worse, Pakistan’s financial bankruptcy exacerbates the internal instability. This in turn provides cheap human resource, to be used as cannon fodder, by the Jihad Factory run by the ISI. One feeds on the other. Islamic fundamentalism occupies Pakistan’s political space that in turn negates Indian influence, which wisely extended up to Afghanistan during British rule. It was the British Indian Army that kept a check on the repeat of a history of invasions from Central Asia.

    Ironically, instead of consolidating and integrating Kashmir, pacifist New Delhi is permitting the birth of a similar pocket of influence with extreme philosophy in the valley that will come back to haunt India in the near future.

    THE THREAT FROM NORTH

    Second, to add to the woes of New Delhi, a bigger threat in addition to the existing one is posed by communist China.

    While too much ‘god’ motivates Pakistan, China pretends to be a ‘godless’ state.

    Unlike nations that boast of an army, in Pakistan the army owns the state.

    On the other hand, in China the People’s Liberation Army is loyal to the Chinese Communist Party and not the state. Dissent in both is a ‘no-no’ in varying degrees. Both, Pakistan and China, unlike India are paranoid about open societies.

    Thus, Beijing and Islamabad share commonality of purpose and together direct their energies to upstage India in international forums, on the borders and by fomenting internal dissent. In a unique ‘jointmanship,’ Islamabad clandestinely transfers sensitive defence technology it receives from the west to Beijing on ‘barter basis’ as there is ban on transfer to China!

    The concurrent rise of China and India pits them against each other, as they compete for the same resources, but one with an authoritarian regime that is scared of the Dalai Lama and Google, and the other with a free society that revels in religion, Dalai Lama and Google.
    The threat from China was evident from its maps in 1946. Mao with the help of these maps described Tibet as the palm of a hand with its five fingers - Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Bhutan and NEFA as Chinese territories that needed to be liberated. Tibet was liberated by force while New Delhi slept. Nepal found India’s refusal to defend Tibet as a sign of an unreliable ally and thought it prudent to open communications with Beijing.

    Today India stands encircled by China.

    THE THREAT PERCEPTION

    To be supreme in Asia, and impelled by the necessity to divert the attention from the growing internal turmoil, Beijing is likely to design a limited but visible military victory in a joint strategy with Islamabad. Pakistan under severe threat of fragmentation would be more than a willing ally.

    With Afghanistan being abandoned by the West, beginning July 2011, Islamabad will craft a strategy to take over Kabul with the help of Islamic fundamentalist groups.

    The irony is that in the aftermath of the exit of the West, the Taliban will occupy the Parliament being built by India in Kabul and connive disruption from there of the Indian Union.

    These groups will not target the West immediately since the latter retains the ability to re-intervene once inaction is deemed as ‘suicidal’.

    The Taliban will initially concentrate on unraveling a soft target like India in concert with Beijing -Islamabad -Kabul or Chinese Communists- Pakistan Army- Irregular Forces axis.

    The physical threat to India will materialize in 2012, after the exit of the American forces from Afghanistan. Earlier India had to contend with a single threat from its West/Central Asia. Now another threat posed from the North under a joint strategy between China and Pakistan has emerged.

    The developing scenario suggests that henceforth GHQ Rawalpindi will further orchestrate provocation against India to regain lost ground in J&K by way of rallies in PoK or Lahore and through military machinations on our borders. It will provide fillip to terrorist attacks, export of fake currency, inserting terrorists in India through Nepal, activation of sleeper cells, and raising controversy on non-issues like water.

    Beijing, while talking ambiguously up to the 2012 buildup, will continue to support the Maoists in Nepal and step up training and funding to Maoists in India. The intensity of Cyber War will meanwhile increase.

    In nutshell, the objective will be to keep India off balance.

    THE STRATEGY

    By 2012, to unravel India, Beijing is likely to para-drop a division of its Special Forces inside the Siliguri Corridor to sever the Northeast.

    There will be simultaneous attacks in other parts of the border and linkup with the Special Forces holding the Siliguri Corridor will be effected. All these will take place under the nuclear overhang.

    In concert, Islamabad will activate the second front to unhook Kashmir by making offensive moves across the IB in the plains and the desert to divide Indian reaction capability. Meanwhile the fifth columnists supporting these external forces will unleash mayhem inside.

    Two key question for New Delhi:
    1. Will India go nuclear if its territorial integrity is threatened? France’s stated policy is that it will use the nuclear option, if Germany is attacked. Germany is not likely to face a nuclear adversary, yet France will use nuclear option if it is attacked. India faces threat from two nuclear powers in its vicinity. Will India shift its stated position of second strike to first strike, if the territorial integrity of the Union is under threat?

    2. Will New Delhi have the gumption to order the Navy to retaliate and stop the flow of cargo in the Indian Ocean being freighted to China? Or will it order the Air Force to conduct offensive and decisive strategic strikes inside Tibet?

    New Delhi requires to develop offensive orientation in its thinking for the answers to be in affirmative. India has produced more than its share of great thinkers in civil affairs.
    However, being a pacifist society, it does not boast of a single military thinker of repute.

    Therefore, we should not hesitate to import knowledge from the best military thinkers to create an assertive society, just as we need to import the best defence technologies to set up the most modern defence industry hub that ensures expansion of democratic space in Asia.

    The ideal opportunity for China to dismember India is between 2011 and 2014 on multiple counts.

    First, to divert attention from the growing dissent within.

    Second, beyond this period, Pakistan as a fragmented nation may not exist to support the Chinese.

    Third, the change of generation by 2015 will witness an assertive India.

    Fourth, the new Indian assertiveness will ensure rapid modernization of the Armed Forces with robust military capabilities.

    And last but not the least, given the fact it does not pose threat to any country, India will create strong international alliances. It is in a unique position, and gets along well with the West, as well as countries like Russia and others. In fact, the international opinion will decisively tilt in favour of India if it shrewdly deals with the powerful geo-economic card held in the arsenal. The answer to the outlined nightmare stares India on its face.

    India simply needs to take out the cost-benefit ratio from the game plan of the opponent by rapidly acquiring the requisite military muscle that outguns and outclasses the adversary.

    War is akin to business. If there is no cost-benefit ratio, it cannot be imposed!

    Such assertive actions will also naturally propel India in Asia as the most influential player and arrest the slide of retreating democracies.

    But are we up to it?

    Bharat Verma is the editor of Indian Defence Review

    http://sify.com/news/Nightmare-2012-Chinese-Special-Forces-take-Siliguri-news-kerrLlchfeb.html
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2010
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  3. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    hmmm Mr Bharat Varma. Well, We all know that India would use the nuke option if it looks like We will loose our territory. China Knows this, and Pakistan, well Pakistan understands this the most. War between Nuclear Powers is not this Easy Mr Varma, You should understand that first. If Wars between Nuke Powers was possible, then there would be no world today! The Threshhold cant be gauged pretty much, and there is a thin line, even if a certain power says, No First Use and all. There is much to loose, and everybody involved knows that.

    What we must be aware of and counter, is the threat of the Maoists being armed by the Chinese and all. China cant initiate a War, hence Proxy war ala Pakistan. Proxy war is the thing we should be worried off, not the doomsday scenario Mr Varma is painting! God Speed
     
  4. bhramos

    bhramos Elite Member Elite Member

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    yeah nice article man,
    but atleast for now will Indian Govt wake up ........!!!!!!!!!
     
  5. Super Commando Dhruva

    Super Commando Dhruva Regular Member

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    The most disturbing fact is Chinese can easily overrun us in North East. Add that to Pakistan's "suicidal" instinct and possible Kashmir annexation (mis)adventure carried out at the same time and we have another mess for which we are equally responsible, especially if it was predicted long before. But to our adversary advantage, MMRCA soap opera is still continuing into its 10th year being realized the weakness in Kargill war. GoI has woken up and taking counter measures by signing globemasters, MTA, artillery etc for quick movement of troops.

    Therefore i agree with author. Next 4 years is going to be crucial. After that, i don't think China can invade us while we can defeat them in defending borders.
     
  6. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    Say 'Hello" to our Zaid Hamid.

    Contrary to what has been bandied about in the press, I assure you the Siliguir Corridoor is not so easily overrun. The 'Chicken Neck' zone, as it is called, is one of the most heavily militarized zones in the region. There are several bases surrounding the area for quick deployment, and the Army is very much in existence. Their primary activity is road building, but there are enough large guns in evidence to suggest that they would provide a warm welcome to any trespassers en-masse.

    There are also seven air bases in the vicinity, which is more than what China can claim in a reasonable radius.

    As a border state, Sikkim also recieves special favour from the Indian Government. The roads are better, the power supply more reliable, and there is plenty of water with good supply infrastructure with either no taxation or very light tax.
     
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  7. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    Agreed that Mr. Varma comes across as alarmist, but we'd much rather have a safe doze of alarmism than complacency. That said, Siliguri has a massive military presence, it's not all that isolated. We have adequately good relations with Bangladesh, that they could let us set up backup supply routes on their territory, if something goes terribly wrong in Siliguri. I can bet my bottom penny that Bangladesh will allow direct movement from West Bengal plains to Tripura cutting the distance to half.

    With the red corridor, we can be assured that naxalism is a controllable threat. It is Indian money that makes its way to funding this, and political parties pawning their way through votebanks using them. "Maoism" is a very recent addition to naxalism, it only gives it that sugarcoating that it needs to make it sound scary and something that comes from the outside. When the crap hits the fan, naxalism will end spontaneously.

    Need I say more about threats from Pakistan? They're just people who like to make money out of failure.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2010
  8. Super Commando Dhruva

    Super Commando Dhruva Regular Member

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    Man i don't get why everyone is hell bent on comparing bharat verna with ziad hamid. Zaid is nuts, a conspiracy theorist of highest order. Bharat verma has some legitimate concerns and valid points and i am totally unbiased while saying this. Bharat verma is truly a think tank who backs up its claims with current events and topography.

    Zaid hamid spews weird analogies while throwing his own imaginations into the mix.

    Ajmal kasab is in reality a sikh, he receives letters from "oppressed" minorities of India all the time, India's nuclear scientist who was found dead was working on a dirty nuclear bomb to explode in Pakistan, RAW+CIA+Mossad links with taliban, etc etc. I mean we have gone through this propaganda by Pakistan in 1971, Kargill, Mumbai "drama" etc. Guy is cultivating support to bomb its own citizens by associating them with India and Israel. He is just a tool to continue denial mode in Pak and let their citizens live in matrix.

    Please point out where you feel he is comparable to zaid hamid in article.
     
  9. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Time of chinese over running us has gone long.and indian army demonstrated it cant be over run during The Sumdorong Chu Incident in 1986 andin the 1967 Nathu La incident where chinese were given the bloody nose.

     
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  10. peacecracker

    peacecracker Regular Member

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    Whether Mr.Verma is Warmongering or Not ,He has some Interesting Points to Share.The Retrieval of Western Powers Will Surely Have An Effect on India(from Pakistan's Side).India was Overwhelmed during Kargil War.Hope It Will Not Happen Again.
    We Need Bharat Verma Like Writers Atleast to "Catch" the Attention of Common Indians. :p
     
  11. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    This is the Same thing Pakistanis say, when they Defend Mr Zaid Hamid! :) We need a guy to catch the attention of the common "pakistanis".
     
  12. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    Like Bharat Verma, Zaid Hamid is prone to exacerbating what he perceives to be as 'frivolities' by the State. A withdrawal of forces from Jammu & Kashmir, from near saturation levels nonetheless, is perceived to be a 'retreat'. A covert negotiation of political values, a "permitting of the birth of a similar pocket of influence with extreme philosophy in the valley"; and Chinese 'assertiveness', a recalibration of the "hordes of invaders from Central Asia" (which ironically, sacked Beijing as well).

    Even more farcical and absurd is this statement:

    "By 2012, to unravel India, Beijing is likely to para-drop a division of its Special Forces inside the Siliguri Corridor to sever the Northeast."

    Or this:

    "The ideal opportunity for China to dismember India is between 2011 and 2014 on multiple counts.

    First, to divert attention from the growing dissent within.

    Second, beyond this period, Pakistan as a fragmented nation may not exist to support the Chinese."

    As if to say, that the Indians, which have one of the most recognizable behind-enemy-lines-covert ops forces on the continent, the Special Frontier Force, would not be employing its use to wreak havoc in sparsely populated, relatively demilitarised Tibet as well. The concern should not be what China should do or will do, what forces it will "airdrop" or what 'covert activities it will stage "in concert with Islamabad". The concern now should be to build up infrastructure and minimize the disparity between border force projecting capabilities between India and China.

    That being said, this piece does serve its purpose. In a democratic society like India, with politicians that are bumbling, corrupt idiots (even more so than China), such pieces are needed to galvanized a sleeping machinery. However, it is important to note who the intended audience of this piece are: it is those with a less-than-adequate knowledge of the area, of force deployment, air bases or relative troop levels: the general public, not you and I on defence forums, who are easily malleable as the electorate to goad the government into action.

    Which is why Bharat Verma is, in terms of "catching the imagination of the public", like Zaid Hamid.
     
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  13. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    War scenario with china and pakistan may not be the likely scenario, But the immediate danger is terrorism in J&K, north east and the maoists . The adversaries of India will definitely use this option to divert the attention of rapidly growing india and try to disintegrate it. India should increase its internal security as well since in future Indirect war through supporting terrorists and maoists is a good option for pakistan or china.
     
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  14. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    This article has long being discussed and discredited. Should be in archives i think if that thread was closed. This is an old article,
     
  15. Super Commando Dhruva

    Super Commando Dhruva Regular Member

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    IMHO, China is currently avoiding India as its more focused on Taiwan right now. I read that annually 4 million Chinese protest against CCP. CCP is very sensitive to internal discord and opinion of its masses. So he is right in saying that China may need to increase temperature on border for inciting and imposing overwhelming patriotic feeling. Maybe captured territory is negotiated with Dalai lama or his successor. India won't cross the nuclear threshold as it will obviously lead to self destruction. India will have two options, either to hand over Dalai or continuing conventional war.

    Nukes acts as deterrence if whole country including capital is threatened and not when adversary is negotiating captured territory for some favors. This is the logic on which our whole cold-start is based. Its wise to re-gauge our nuclear threshold by increasing conventional capabilities that ensures survivability, Nukes don't guarantee survivability. And China won't cross it but will lead to India's humiliating defeat in world arena.

    I guess his content points to same warfare below nuclear threshold.
     

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