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All of us want to know about the next impressive Chinese weapon system. Here's my top ten list.
1. Dark Sword supersonic stealth UCAV (2020)
2. Type 055 Destroyer (2017-2020)
3. Type 095 SSN (2017-2019)
4. Type 096 Tang-class SSBN with JL-3 SLBMs (2020-2025)
5. Mass production of Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter (2017-2018)
6. Mass production of Shenyang J-31 stealth fighter (2019)
7. WS-15 turbofan engine (2019)
8. H-20 stealth bomber (2025)
9. Chinese Nimitz-class aircraft carrier (2025-2030?)
10. ASAT against distant GPS satellites (?)
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1. China can build manned stealth fighters. Clearly, China has the technology to build an unmanned stealth fighter. Since the Dark Sword probably started later, I'll estimate a two-year delay after J-20 induction.
2. Popular Science's estimate. Source: Learning More About China’s New Massive Warship Plan (055 Cruiser) | Popular Science
3. China Submarine Capabilities | Articles | NTI Analysis | NTI
"While the PLAN is currently developing newer Type 095 SSNs and Type 096 SSBNs, the U.S. Department of Defense believes that China will build four more Type 093 SSNs and two more Type 094 SSBNs before moving onto constructing the newer varieties. [11]"
China says type 095 nuclear submarine is better than US submarines | China Daily Mail
"According to sina.com.cn, China will adopt the following six new technologies in its type 095 attack nuclear submarines: new water injection propulsion, super strong steel, mixed single and double-hull structure, new comprehensive vibration reduction floating raft and vertical launch tube for cruise missile.
The website says that the new submarine has to have an underwater speed not less than 33 knots, silent cruise speed not less than 18 knots, and maximum submerging depth not less than 600 metres.
That means the submarine is better than the US Virginia-class and comparable to the US Seawolf-class attack nuclear submarine."
4. China SSBN Fleet Getting Ready – But For What? | Federation of American Scientists
"The U.S. intelligence community predicts that 'up to five [Jin-class (Type 094) SSBNs] may enter service before China proceeds to its generation SSBN (Type 096) over the next decade'...."
5. Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter | global aviation report
"Nov 22, 2014 - China's stealth J-20 fighter development in question due to engine concerns ... China's J-20 stealth fighter may begin small-scale production in 2017 ... stealth fighter, the Chengdu J-20, in preparation for mass production of the aircraft. .... to enter production in 2018 · China believes PLAAF's J-10C fighter ..."
6. China Military Online English Edition
"The J-31 stealth fighter is very likely to be put into mass production within five years, and has a big chance of being a carrier-borne type, said Xu Yongling, aviation expert, in an interview."
7. 6th J-20 Stealth Fighter Rolls Out, More to Soon Follow | Popular Science
"At this point in the J-20's development, the design is essentially fixed, though the AL-31 engines are likely to be swapped for more powerful Chinese WS-15 turbofans by 2019."
8. China’s Rising Defense Budgets Stoke Regional Concerns | Defense content from Aviation Week
"Chinese power projection systems will also advance, like the Y-20, which may enter service in 2017-18; some Chinese sources suggest that China eventually will require 400 of the type. Asian military sources have told Aviation Week that Xian’s H-20 flying-wing strategic bomber could emerge by 2025. It increasingly seems that China’s second and third aircraft carriers may be built near-simultaneously, as a new large Type 071 landing platform dock and plans for a new landing helicopter dock amphibious assault ships emerge. Also there are reports that in addition to six Type 093 second-generation nuclear attack submarines (SSN) expected by the Defense Department, there may be up to 14 Type 095 third-generation SSNs in the early 2020s."
9. China Building Trio of Large Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carriers Similar To US’ Nimitz, Ford-Class Carriers -- Report
"While the journey remains arduous, and the timeline and milestones uncertain, Beijing's path to indigenous carrier development appears and its desired destination is getting clearer, Erickson said. 'China appears to be going for the gold standard-the U.S. standard, that is-as quickly as reasonably possible. Top-tier must-haves appear to include American-size hulls, nuclear propulsion, catapults, and advanced wire arrestor gear. Developing new hulls and nuclear propulsion is the first step, improved aircraft can be added in later. As a self-styled great sea power, Beijing is determined to be second to none, even if much work remains to be done to truly get there.'"
10. A real ASAT test creates space debris. How can China build an effective ASAT after the US used world opinion to prevent future Chinese ASAT tests?
1. Dark Sword supersonic stealth UCAV (2020)
2. Type 055 Destroyer (2017-2020)
3. Type 095 SSN (2017-2019)
4. Type 096 Tang-class SSBN with JL-3 SLBMs (2020-2025)
5. Mass production of Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter (2017-2018)
6. Mass production of Shenyang J-31 stealth fighter (2019)
7. WS-15 turbofan engine (2019)
8. H-20 stealth bomber (2025)
9. Chinese Nimitz-class aircraft carrier (2025-2030?)
10. ASAT against distant GPS satellites (?)
----------
1. China can build manned stealth fighters. Clearly, China has the technology to build an unmanned stealth fighter. Since the Dark Sword probably started later, I'll estimate a two-year delay after J-20 induction.
2. Popular Science's estimate. Source: Learning More About China’s New Massive Warship Plan (055 Cruiser) | Popular Science
3. China Submarine Capabilities | Articles | NTI Analysis | NTI
"While the PLAN is currently developing newer Type 095 SSNs and Type 096 SSBNs, the U.S. Department of Defense believes that China will build four more Type 093 SSNs and two more Type 094 SSBNs before moving onto constructing the newer varieties. [11]"
China says type 095 nuclear submarine is better than US submarines | China Daily Mail
"According to sina.com.cn, China will adopt the following six new technologies in its type 095 attack nuclear submarines: new water injection propulsion, super strong steel, mixed single and double-hull structure, new comprehensive vibration reduction floating raft and vertical launch tube for cruise missile.
The website says that the new submarine has to have an underwater speed not less than 33 knots, silent cruise speed not less than 18 knots, and maximum submerging depth not less than 600 metres.
That means the submarine is better than the US Virginia-class and comparable to the US Seawolf-class attack nuclear submarine."
4. China SSBN Fleet Getting Ready – But For What? | Federation of American Scientists
"The U.S. intelligence community predicts that 'up to five [Jin-class (Type 094) SSBNs] may enter service before China proceeds to its generation SSBN (Type 096) over the next decade'...."
5. Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter | global aviation report
"Nov 22, 2014 - China's stealth J-20 fighter development in question due to engine concerns ... China's J-20 stealth fighter may begin small-scale production in 2017 ... stealth fighter, the Chengdu J-20, in preparation for mass production of the aircraft. .... to enter production in 2018 · China believes PLAAF's J-10C fighter ..."
6. China Military Online English Edition
"The J-31 stealth fighter is very likely to be put into mass production within five years, and has a big chance of being a carrier-borne type, said Xu Yongling, aviation expert, in an interview."
7. 6th J-20 Stealth Fighter Rolls Out, More to Soon Follow | Popular Science
"At this point in the J-20's development, the design is essentially fixed, though the AL-31 engines are likely to be swapped for more powerful Chinese WS-15 turbofans by 2019."
8. China’s Rising Defense Budgets Stoke Regional Concerns | Defense content from Aviation Week
"Chinese power projection systems will also advance, like the Y-20, which may enter service in 2017-18; some Chinese sources suggest that China eventually will require 400 of the type. Asian military sources have told Aviation Week that Xian’s H-20 flying-wing strategic bomber could emerge by 2025. It increasingly seems that China’s second and third aircraft carriers may be built near-simultaneously, as a new large Type 071 landing platform dock and plans for a new landing helicopter dock amphibious assault ships emerge. Also there are reports that in addition to six Type 093 second-generation nuclear attack submarines (SSN) expected by the Defense Department, there may be up to 14 Type 095 third-generation SSNs in the early 2020s."
9. China Building Trio of Large Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carriers Similar To US’ Nimitz, Ford-Class Carriers -- Report
"While the journey remains arduous, and the timeline and milestones uncertain, Beijing's path to indigenous carrier development appears and its desired destination is getting clearer, Erickson said. 'China appears to be going for the gold standard-the U.S. standard, that is-as quickly as reasonably possible. Top-tier must-haves appear to include American-size hulls, nuclear propulsion, catapults, and advanced wire arrestor gear. Developing new hulls and nuclear propulsion is the first step, improved aircraft can be added in later. As a self-styled great sea power, Beijing is determined to be second to none, even if much work remains to be done to truly get there.'"
10. A real ASAT test creates space debris. How can China build an effective ASAT after the US used world opinion to prevent future Chinese ASAT tests?
