More than US, Japan is the ally India must court

Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by arnabmit, Aug 5, 2013.

  1. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    More than US, Japan is the ally India must court | idrw.org

    SOURCE: FIRST POST

    Did you know Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States, visited India recently for four days? Well, neither did anybody else, because it was the lowest-key of low-key trips. Nobody paid any attention, including India’s loud and excitable media that went ga-ga over Barack Obama’s (imperial?) visit a few years ago.

    Biden’s trip was the first by a US VP in 30 years, but that wasn’t enough to create any hoop-la. He did try to grab the limelight by claiming he had some relatives in India, but nobody bit on that bait, either. The first reason is that the US VPs are ceremonial non-entities. They only get visible when they screw up, like Spiro Agnew did under Nixon, or like the gaffe-prone Dan Quayle did during the Bush era (he was ‘impeachment insurance’ for George Bush Senior’s, that is nobody would dare impeach Bush because that would make Quayle president!).

    In any case, Obama is now acting more and more like a lameduck. His crowning glory in domestic affairs is Obamacare; but even there he is furiously backpedalling because it is increasingly clear that this has huge hidden costs. In foreign affairs, he has nothing to show: his making-nice to the Iranians and Chinese has brought no dividends, and revolts in the Middle East lessened US leverage instead of increasing it. Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize looks particularly undeserving now.

    Obama is now reduced to playing the race card. His dramatic response to the Trayvon Martin affair, where a black teenager was shot dead (“That could have been me 35 years ago”), is a power play to become a black messiah after he retires. In view of popular revulsion at his acts – such as the PRISM invasion of online privacy – his standing in his post-presidential years is unlikely to be as good as, say, Bill Clinton’s. Maybe he is jockeying for another job then.

    The second reason everyone ignored Biden is that he really didn’t have anything of note to tell Indians – his visit was mostly a rehash of the one by Secretary of State John Kerry a few weeks ago. With Kerry’s ascendance, Indo-US relations are reaching a new low. Kerry is a ranking member of the Atlanticist cult like his mentor Zbigniew Brzezinski – these guys are still fighting the Cold War with the late lamented Soviet Union and are focused on NATO and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Obama is also an Atlanticist, but Kerry wins the prize for being the most Pakistan-friendly US official, the position the unlamented Robin Raphael used to hold. In general, East-Coast politicians, in particular Democrats and those from Harvard, tend to be Atlanticists; whereas West Coasters tend to be more Pacific-focused. Obama’s fine words that India-US relations will form “one of the defining partnerships of the 21 st century” were simple bombast and flattery.

    Biden repeated the usual tiresome mantras: India must open up its industries to American exports, especially defence; India must buy more nuclear gear from them. Indian intellectual property rules are making it hard for American pharma companies. Walmart should not be forced into 30 percent local content. No word, note, about India’s issues such as increasing difficulty in the free movement of Indian labour and the costs of visas. Or about increasing US FDI in India.

    The third reason the Biden visit was of no consequence is the increasing likelihood that the Americans will slowly disengage from the rest of the world, especially Asia. There has always been a tension between a ‘Fortress America’ perspective of those who wish to retreat, and a global engagement perspective of those who like America bestriding the world.

    There are a couple of factors here: on the one hand, imperial overreach. The exhausting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have brought very few dividends but have hurt the American treasury as well as Americans’ self-image. On the other hand, China looks unstoppable in its systematic approach to power by bullying its neighbours. The temptation to retreat is high.

    In addition, there is shale gas/oil. A major reason for American adventurism abroad (most people except unreconstructed Cold Warriors now agree that the ‘domino theory’ is archaic) has been the search for energy. The continued embrace of various Middle Eastern despots and even the invasion of Iraq were, one could posit, all about oil. Now that the US is poised to become perhaps the world’s largest producer of (shale-based) hydrocarbons, that particular need goes away.

    All this means that there is an interesting opportunity for India if only Indians were willing and able to take it. An American retreat from Asia would leave a vacuum that the Chinese would be delighted to fill. But not even one of her fearful neighbours (except perhaps North Korea) would find a China-dominated Asia palatable: the Chinese are imperial bullies.

    India, despite its bumbling and arrogant approach that has alienated its immediate neighbours, is viewed considerably less negatively by most Asians – partly because India has not been a saber-rattler and is (with good reason) considered not a very clever negotiator. An India that tries to take on leadership in Asia could well form alliances, even outside the existing American-led attempt using a Security Quadrilateral (US, Australia, Japan, India) to contain China.

    One diplomatic opening comes from Japan, where Shinzo Abe has just won a resounding victory in the upper house of Parliament. Now that he has large majorities in both houses, and public support for his policies, especially ‘Abenomics’, is high, he should be able to take forward his nationalistic agenda. One way he may do this is by amending the American-imposed Constitution that prevents Japan from having an offensive capability in its armed forces. The second is by being more assertive regarding East Asia.

    Abe, and Japanese in general, have become wary of China after their ongoing conflict over the Senkaku (Daiyu to the Chinese) islands, and also the ruthless trade barriers erected by the Chinese over rare-earth minerals. The Japanese may wish to reduce exposure in China and may be looking for other investment opportunities: and India is both hungry for FDI and a potentially good partner for Japanese firms, as Suzuki, Toyota, Honda et al have shown.

    Writing in ProSyn, Yuriko Koike, a former foreign minister (“The return of action in Japan”) suggests that Japan is now reiterating its “future as… a trading country that has assumed its rightful role in ensuring a free and open maritime order”. Keeping order in the Indian Ocean (all the way from the Straits of Hormuz to the Straits and Malacca) is clearly of mutual interest to Japan and India; so is concern over China’s submarine base in the South China Sea.

    Thus there is an economic case to go with a national security case for India to ally itself with Japan. In addition, there are old cultural links. Japanese Buddhists have a benign view of India as the Holy Land of their faith. In addition, many Japanese have not forgotten that only the Indian jurist Radhabinod Pal opposed the biased post-war show trials that painted all Japanese leaders as crazed war criminals. There is a bust of Justice Pal in the Yasukuni Shrine, where Japanese war-dead are honored.

    Besides, there is absolutely no animosity between Indians and Japanese regarding WW-II: if anything, many Indians are grateful to Japan for the support it gave to Subhash Bose and the Indian National Army.

    In August there are important dates for Japan: the anniversaries of the Hiroshima (6 August) and Nagasaki (9 August) bombings and also traditional visits to the Yasukuni Shrine on 15 August, the day of surrender to the US in 1945. The Chinese always make a lot of noise about Japanese war crimes in World War II (which is ironic considering their own ongoing war crimes in Tibet). India should use the occasion to reaffirm its solidarity with Japan. India has no axe to grind other than to offer solidarity.

    Faced with a fading America and a Japan that seems to be shaking off the effects of two ‘lost decades’, India should adjust its foreign policy leanings to really ‘look East’ and offer an alternative pole to a bullying China.
     
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  3. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Hydrocarbons?! That’s all, really!

    No, absolutely not. Right from communists to hydrocarbons to the WoT to the axis of the evil to the PRC to whatever, the fight is only and only about dominance/supremacy, whatever the excuse.

    The US won’t be leaving the Asian continent for the Chinese to fill up the vacuum, definitely not without some sort of negotiations with the PRC and/or if they are being completely drained out economically, and none of the two are happening at the moment.

    Just look at the world map and military presence of the USAF in some form and shape and then get your focus to the Asian continent, it is phenomenally huge right from west Asia to central Asia to the Indian sub-continent to the Indo-pacific, and the Americans will leave all that for the Chinese to take over, only in the dreams of someone who wants to conveniently ignore all that is happening on ground.

    For one, just look at the extent of slow and steady military build-up that is happening in the Indo-Pacific, and all concentrated around the PRC. Look at the type of diplomacy the US is pursuing in the ASEAN region, and how the Chinese are being check-mated there. Who would ever leave all that for the most threatening adversary of present day times to takeover, Americans definitely aren’t!

    About Japan, yes, but then from the looks of things, we aren’t in much hurry to push our way through. For now, India seems to be leveraging its presence in the SEA region to pressurize the Chinese into some sort of amicable deal on border issues, which means we aren’t really looking at that region as a strategic opportunity or an out-post which will bring us bigger benefits. And there is one hindrance, our immediate neighborhood, have a smart enough policy for this region and then aggressively venture out, also sort out the mess within from insurgencies to Maoists to the underworld to religious terror, these are the things which leave us on the back-foot while we try and negotiate in areas where the PRC perceives its direct interests, and views India’s presence there as a threat.

    Other than that, on the economic front, yes, but then the UPA is sleeping and nothing else. UPA has continued to disappoint the Koreans to the Japanese to the Americans to the Europeans on this front for long. Unfortunately we are a country that seems directionless at the moment!
     
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  4. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    This is an article written by an amateur in international affairs. Why would India, which is in desperate need of strategic partnership against China, place more emphasis on a country (Japan) that cannot go on the offense (due to restrictive legal and political realities in Japan), no history of spearheading diplomatic and military initiatives against strategic threats, no military experience after WW2, limited diplomatic clout, etc.? Don't get me wrong I like Japan but I think it cannot stand up against the hard-charging China without its alliance with the US. In the order of priorities for alliances Japan be given a secondary priority. Besides, any "expert" worth his salt should know that American strategic priorities have a continuity of its own regardless of who the Presidents are (in fact Obama is more Asia-oriented than Bush, Jr. who was so busy pursuing Al Qaeda in Iraq).

    This article therefore is like preferring masturbation: you get the feeling but not the real thing.
     
  5. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Sure America don't want to leave any base in the world. But does the economics support the continuation? Anybody who is a real economist woiuld understand the implications. The world is entering into really troubled times for the next decade or so.
     
  6. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Those who can't see several steps ahead in a game would surely find your argument agreeable. For a start, three big 'unbeatable' superpowers went down in the last century. Do you think Japan will stay the same after 70 years without a change? Yes, I agree we are going to see troubled times ahead with China coming into the foreground. That's precisely why Japan will change.
     
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  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    All must be on board since China's philosophy is - expansionist, – ''what's mine is mine, and we'll negotiate what is yours''.
     
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  8. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Biden maybe anything, but he is well versed in Foreign Affairs, having been in the Senate Committee for ages.

    He s a person of strong likings and disliking. He is said to be pro India and was the main force to push the Nuclear deal, even though he was a Democrat.

    After that disaster, pro Pakistan wimp, Kerry's nondescript visit to India, it was necessary to send someone who can assure India that allz well!
     
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  9. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Japan will change and must change, but india is not a power Japan can rely upon in next 20 years:

    In next 20 years, there is no way that India can build up a navy force which allow it to make significant contribution in eastern asia's military map.
    In next 20 years, there is no way that India can accumulate a big pile of money which allow it to assist any country in eastern asia economically!

    Why Japan want to have a closest partner when this partner can provide any meaningful help in near future?

    In 20 years, there is only one country that Japan can count on-----USA!
     
  10. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    You are right.. USSR can never collapse.. Lehman Brothers is too big to fail. Sun will never set on the British Empire. There is no way India can ..............

    You are a case in point for my previous quote "Those who can't see several steps ahead in a game would surely find your argument agreeable" :namaste:
     
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  11. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    I doubt if you can see several steps ahead.

    There's no issue that Japan will be a significant force in Asia in the coming decades but its ageing and shrinking population will not bode well for its future prospects. Japan will be effective only if it maintains its current relationship with the US, the cornerstone of its post-war security. But Japan on its own (or even with a strategic relationship with a budding power like India) cannot stand up against China. Japan knows this that's why it is always careful not to upset its relationship with the US as it confronts China.

    Just look at WW2 as a good background on the limits of Japanese power if it stands alone (NAZI Germany and Italy were not much of allies in the Pacific area during that time).
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2013
  12. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    I am not saying it will be easy to confront China for Japan or India even with US support. But then again it would be foolish of you to assume that China will overwhelm Japan+India combo with ease. The world will see China strengthening a lot for the next decade till 2025. And by extension, more troubles for the peace of the world. No arguments on that part. And more and more countries will ally with China and there is no denying it. But then again, you have doubts on my ability to think. I would prefer not to disappoint you. So I will leave it at that.
     
  13. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    That's where India comes in. World's biggest pool of skilled/talented manpower. Unbeatable demographic advantage over an ageing China whose economy has already slowed down.

    While investor confidence in Japan market is all-time high (see their Stock market, for starters).

    The govt. controls both houses of parliament with a firm grip. Stability coupled with national resurgence.....& you have the surest recipe for accelerated growth.

    Japan's Tech. & capital + India's formidable manpower & access to world's best military tech. (US, Russia & European weaponry) is a combination worth reckoning.

    No one realizes it better than PRC, CPC & PLA themselves.

    That's what this Paki-style denial-ism from these Chinese posters :)

    No matter how uncomfortable this union is for PRC, it has already taken-off. Stop this if you can.

    Japan & India complement each other like nothing else.

    Naysayers cannot digest the fact the US-Japan relationship is only going to be strengthened, especially in view of increasingly assertive & petulant hegemonic PRC which directly challenges USA in its backyard.

    & to think, US is going to take all this lying down. Dream on, Chicoms.

    Japan is US's pivot in the West Pacific. The two cannot do without each other.

    US would never sacrifice its pre-eminence in any region of the world (especially the West-Pacific theater, its backyard & hence the re-alignment of fleets), no matter how much the Chinese rant on internet.

    Competitiveness & innovation is the DNA of USA & they would stop at nothing when push comes to shove. Pre-eminence across the world is the first tenet of US foreign policy. Japan works like no one else, in helping accomplishing US Foreign policy objectives & in furthering US interests.

    As already stated, US-Japan partnership is only going to be strengthened. A resurgent Japan investing in its war-making potential is going to lessen the burden on a beleaguered US economy (after the latter's recent misadventures in Iraq & Af-stan).

    Japan is not alone. World's lone superpower protects Japan against Chicoms.

    Plus, Japan is getting back on its feet, militarily. With US backing, that is (Active US's connivance with plausible deniability, old trick)

    Add India to this equation, which has a permanent ally in Russia on its side (Russia has always been apprehensive of the back-stabbing, ungrateful Chicoms who have been eyeing East-Russian estate for quite some time).

    Europe is going to work overtime to fulfill India's defence requirements.

    Quite similar to the manner in which Indian armed forces requirements & IT companies are creating jobs in US (with US lawmakers & Governors going great lengths in thanking the Indians), UK, France & Israel.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2013
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  14. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    USSR collapse become USA can match its military power and exploit its economic weakness;
    Lehman Brother fails become there are bigger fisher beating it with deeper pocket;
    Sun set because Germanies and Japaneses combined exhausted its resources militarily and financially;

    What does india have right now? What will india have in 20 years?

    My friend, you are not seeing several steps ahead. Actually you are imagine what may happen after hundreds steps which is meaningless and unrealistic.
     
  15. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    What will happen when you jump out of an airplane and the parachute doesn't open? Will you complain that you died because the parachute didn't open when you ignored the warning to carry a backup parachute?

    There are always reasons you can tell. But when you take a decision, you have to live with it's consequences and make sure you don't do the same mistake again. Your understanding of cause and effect is at best amateur and is in line with the understanding of 90% of the people. That's why it's so easy to predict your thoughts and the decisions you make.

    Since you asked abt India, let me answer with a question.. What has Germany got after WWI that it was able to shake the entire world within 20 years?

    And FYI, 'hundred moves' comes under the subset of 'several moves' :taunt1:
     
  16. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    You are worring about a backup parachute! you are talking about the radar in your private jet which you won't have it in 20 years.

    It is pontless to predict what could happen after 20 years and start to prepare it today. You just got to much time to waste.

    What Germany got after WW1?
    One of most power industrial bases in the world!
    One of most educated population in the world!
    One of most skillful work forces in the world!
    One of most advanced R&D infrastructure in the world!
    One of most talented scientists groups in the world!
    The list can go on and on!
    Even with all these, in first 10 years, the germany was still struggling with one thing-survival instead of some big plans of shaking the world!
    Now lets get back to India: what india gets today that you can shake the world in 20 years?

    Even you can predict what would happen in 20 years, there is another problem: Japanese can't wait 20 years.

    And FYI, 'hundred moves' comes under the subset of 'several moves' :taunt1:[/QUOTE]
     
  17. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Are you just dumb or incredibly stupid?

    I am giving an analogy to your reasoning style. But how will you understand that?

    After listing some of the things Germany had, you couldn't figure out what India will have in 20 years and what India has currently..

    It's pointless to explain something which you will never understand. Be happy and hopeful and wait for the next 20 years. I guess atleast that will be processed in your brain.
     
  18. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    for sure india should work with japan as much as with usa

    japan facing same problematic dragon as us , usa is more distanced from that problem

    as for where india will be in 20 yrs ?

    simple - gap of falling behind with china will be considerably less
     
  19. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No, I don't understand your wishful thinking!

    What India has now?
    One of most power industrial bases in the world? NO!
    One of most educated population in the world? NO!
    One of most skillful work forces in the world? NO!
    One of most advanced R&D infrastructure in the world? NO!
    One of most talented scientists groups in the world? Maybe, but most of them is working overseas!
    Maybe you can tell me what India will have in 20 years
     
  20. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Be happy in your little fairy world.
     
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  21. hello_10

    hello_10 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Japanese yen is still 20% over valued and its true value would be around 120 Yen per US$, and till then there is a limited opportunity to have industrial production growth there...

    Japan at around 220% national debt can't live without growth and hence paying their debt also this way. and the way China is rising, soon they will have taken a major share of japanese high tech export. Japan has to prepare itself considering that circumstances after 5 years from now :japan:

    India has to be more and more closer to Japan from now, as these two countries will have more to deal with each others in future. i would like to see india importing most of the high tech products from japan, for which it look on western nations, considering the fact that soon china will introduce a big proportion of high tech products at a very low price, and rest of them can be imported from Japan :thumb:

    we hope to see over 90% Indian trade within Asia this way, hopefully by 2020+, and Japan is the key to replace India's western products :india: :japan:
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2013

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