Lies, damn lies, and China's economic statistics

[Twinblade]

Lies, damn lies, and China's economic statistics
Date August 15, 2013 - 5:02PM
Kelly Olsen

China has soared almost to the top of the world's economic league tables, but whether the official data underpinning its status can be trusted is a constant headache, analysts say.

There's a lot of problems in China. One is that there's a perception that the numbers have political incentives embedded in them

Simmering unease regarding China's economic figures has taken on new meaning in recent months with discrepancies in some statistics and questions over just how much gross domestic product (GDP) is really growing.

Earlier this year, economists took issue with Chinese monthly trade statistics, which diverged wildly from expectations, and two weeks ago official and private purchasing managers surveys - a key measure of manufacturing - surprisingly pointed in opposite directions.

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Doubts have also been raised about how inflation is calculated.

"If there was an index for suspicion about China's official statistics, it would be off the charts, or to use the technical American term, 'crazy bad'," Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green wrote in a report.

The report by Green of Standard Chartered, released earlier this year, estimated economic growth for 2011 and 2012 at 7.2 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively, far below official figures of 9.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent.

Acknowledging the inherent challenges he had with his calculations, he wrote that his figures could at best be described as "guesstimates", adding: "We have to use official data to question official data."

Christopher Balding, who teaches at Peking University's HSBC Business School, argued in a paper this month that skewed consumer price index data, especially for housing, seriously overstates the size of China's economy.

"Conservatively, correcting for housing price inflation ... adds approximately one per cent to annual consumer price inflation in China, reducing real GDP by more than $US1 trillion ($1.09 trillion)."

Lies, damn lies, and China's economic statistics

 

[rockdog]

10 years ago Indian talking about surpass China's GDP, 5 years ago Indian talking about surpass China's GDP growth rate, now Indian talking about China's GDP is fake... Isn't a typical Loser's mindset?

*One hint, by 2012 even China's central government revenue (2012年全国财政收入117210亿元 增12.8% - 新华财经 - 新华网) is equal to Indian's GDP...

 

[bose]

10 years ago Indian talking about surpass China's GDP, 5 years ago Indian talking about surpass China's GDP growth rate, now Indian talking about China's GDP is fake... Isn't a typical Loser's mindset?

*One hint, by 2012 even China's central government revenue (2012年全国财政收入117210亿元 增12.8% - 新华财经 - 新华网) is equal to Indian's GDP...

Do not show your stupidity... Why bring in India here... Is this a report from Inida ???

It is well know that Chinese economy is inflated and doctored...

 

[ice berg]

Do not show your stupidity... Why bring in India here... Is this a report from Inida ???

It is well know that Chinese economy is inflated and doctored...

You are smarter than the people who invest money there then.

China June FDI rises at fastest pace in more than two years
China June FDI rises at fastest pace in more than two years | Reuters

 

[bose]

You are smarter than the people who invest money there then.

China June FDI rises at fastest pace in more than two years
China June FDI rises at fastest pace in more than two years | Reuters

I am not sure if I am smarter than those people who put money into wrong place... Even smarter persons make mistakes... But definitly would suggest them not to do so...

All data are madeup by local officials... Western sources should not rely on those fuzzy data...

Chinese economy is more bad than anticipated...

 

[cw2005]

No economy in the world reflected properly by the data presented by government. As in China case, it is even more confusing. But if it is inflated or deflated is purely depends on who is looking at it.

I used to work with a foreign textile manufacture company in China. The company needs to export "All" produce. However, it managed to sell "All" produce locally by running empty trucks to and flow from Hong Kong with valid official documnts from those product importer. That is to say when a company imports textile, actually he buys locally and when a producer need to export, it sell locally. So, the export and import statistics might be twisted.

But wait, it might not be so. Because part of the local sales actually end up "Exported" through the border into South Asian country and even Russia and could be considered as real export.

You never have any hint on how reliable would be the statistics. But is this situation only found in China?

 

[ice berg]

In what way are the people putting money in the wrong place? Are you saying the FDI numbers are fake? If so, how? What is your source that western sources only rely on chinese numbers?
In what way is chinese economy worse than anticipated? What country are you comparing China with? What is the benchmark for China during the current recession?

Please provide relevant sources for your argument. It makes it easier to follow you. Otherwise it is only your opinion.

 

[Compersion]

In what way are the people putting money in the wrong place? Are you saying the FDI numbers are fake? If so, how? What is your source that western sources only rely on chinese numbers?
In what way is chinese economy worse than anticipated? What country are you comparing China with? What is the benchmark for China during the current recession?

Please provide relevant sources for your argument. It makes it easier to follow you. Otherwise it is only your opinion.

Would like to have your insight about prc fdi through the following excerpt from your article you stated:

"FDI from Japan was up 14.4 percent in the first six months from a year earlier to $4.7 billion while inflows from 10 Asian nations rose 5.3 percent in the first half from a year earlier to $53.8 billion, which included $39.7 billion from Hong Kong."

Do you account for Taiwan in fdi figures. Also what is the usd 39.7 billion from Hong Kong. That's huge and impressive. Is there some huge deal we haven't heard about. Mind to share a little about what type of fdi and how fdi is calculated and also what this 39.7 billion is. Many thanks