Discussion in 'Indo Pacific & East Asia' started by BangersAndMash, Dec 19, 2011.
*BREAKING NEWS* Kim Jong Il (North Korea) has died!
Unification of Korea !!
so who takes over now? another dynastic rule here? they were propping up one of his sons to takeover.
I think his son was already "groomed" for succession and appointed "heir" some time back.
Apparently he died on the 17th! NK is just releasing the news now!
Bad time for the Korean Peninsula. New leader means a lot of legitimacy building. This means more cross border adventurisms...
i suspect every chance that some general might take over, someone higher up in the hierarchy. it really depends on who is "in control" and who are the chinese supporting.
there is no way china will like or allow any sort of fight over this issue within dprk and they would like to have this settled asap, and i have my doubts they would like the dynastic rule to continue, just some assumptions.
anyways, how are they going to address their new leader? first it was the great leader, then the dear leader.
The dynasty in a strange way provides a certain level of stability to that state. Remove the Kims for some adventuristic general and the whole thing will unravel. The people alone have been indoctrinated effectively to worship the Kims, how would they react if they find out suddenly that obne of the Generals have usurped the throne? In any case, that part of the World is a powder keg waiting to explode.
News from The Associated Press
its a make believe world there really, so all that the state propaganda feeds the populace there, they ought to believe it, those people dont have any other options nor has their thinking been critically developed to the extent to ever question what the state has to propagate, so who ever takes over, be it from within the family or outside, the propaganda will be hard hitting, along with fairy tales associated with the new name on how this person person possesses unusual powers, on how he has given a bloody nose to the imperialist US, so on and so forth, that they are good at narrating and people will think this person is next best thing to have happened to them after their great and dear leaders.
The Chinese have been prepared for this for sometime.It is upto how Bejing decides .
The worrying thing about NK "fairy tale" plots for their Kims is that they have to mix it with a grain of reality. This is where your cross border adventures come in. The sinking of the SK navy ship may only be the start. The "fairy tale" building efforts may yet intensify in the first days, weeks or years of the new very yound Kim.
Chinese leaders should already know his death since yesterday and Iâ€™m sure they are scramble to work on contingency plan on different scenarios.
Kim Jong Ilâ€™s death marks the turning point of Korean peninsula and leads to inevitable destiny of eventual unification. Itâ€™s now a critical time for world to settle it peacefully. Any mistakes or misjudgment could cause devastating consequence and hefty price for world to pay.
The mistake could only come from the NOKORs. China is partly to blame for being an all-weather unconditional patron.
His third son is supposedly the heir right?Will the generals accept him
Well, what this means? Changes in KDPR's regime in a near future or Kim's son will replaces him father and the regime so continues?
It's a sensitive world's region. any change so radical can to impact severely the Korea Peninsula.
Nothing big will happen. It is in both China's and South Korea's interest that North Korea continues to exist. No one will interfere in the dynastic pass-over of power.
The Generals already started the myth building for him with a spectacular bang, the sinking of the Cheonan.
Is this the best thing that would have happened to NoKo? What if his son is someone who is free thinking and embraces the west? I wonder if the South Koreans and the west will reach out to him and see if he is got over to "their side"? Chinese would do everything to stop that but then since the successor is so young, he could be different from his father and grand father. The people who are used to their great and dear leader will follow the young leader as well. I hope he has brains.
If China loses NoKo, it has no one in Pacific belt to call a friend.
South Korea is now facing a big challenge: An after Kim Jong iLâ€™s North Korea.
If North Korea remains stable, all parties will follow the protocol but unification may further delayed. If North Korea is unstable, a conflict or even bloody war may break up cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Even though South Korea unites with North, they will have to face 40 million dead poor North Korean with trillions of dollars rebuilding task needed.
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