Indian Air Force admits can’t fight China, Pak at the same time

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by asingh10, Mar 11, 2016.

  1. asingh10

    asingh10 Senior Member Senior Member

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    ndian Air Force vice-chief, Air Marshal BS Dhanoa, admitted on Thursday that it did not have sufficient number of warplanes to fight a two-front war, setting off alarm bells about the country’s ability to tackle a combined threat from China and Pakistan.

    “Our numbers are not adequate to fully execute an air campaign in a two-front scenario,” Dhanoa said, drawing attention to the sharp drawdown of India’s fighter fleet. The count of IAF’s fighter squadrons has shrunk to 33 compared to a desirable strength of 42, a capability gap the air force is struggling to fill.

    It is rare for top military commanders to make such a startling public admission, even though parliamentary panels have raised questions about India’s ability to fight the two adversaries at the same time – a worrying scenario that the IAF describes as ‘Contingency-III.’

    “Probability of a two front scenario is an appreciation which you need to do. But are the numbers adequate? No. The squadrons are winding down,” said Dhanoa, who is in line to become IAF chief on December 31, 2016.

    The admission comes days before the IAF carries out a firepower demonstration in Pokhran – the site for India’s underground nuclear detonation – on March 18. The spectacle will involve 181 planes including 103 fighter jets. President Pranab Mukherjee and PM Narendra Modi are expected to witness exercise Iron Fist-2016, held every three years.

    The only defence attaches not invited to witness the exercise, whose tagline is ‘Demonstrating the Capability to Punish,’ are from China and Pakistan. The IAF said it was a collective decision of the ministry of external affairs and the defence ministry to leave them out.

    The IAF’s plans to scale up its capabilities have hit several hurdles, including delay in the light combat aircraft (LCA) project, scrapping of a deal to buy 126 modern fighter jets and stalemate in the Rafale purchase.

    The existing fleet consists of 14 squadrons of ageing MiG-21 and MiG-27 fighters that will be retired in phases by 2024. Each fighter squadron consists of about 18 planes.

    Russian-origin Su-30 fighters account for about 10 squadrons but the fleet is plagued by engine troubles and is also battling poor serviceability. The remaining nine squadrons consist of Mirage 2000 fighters, Jaguars and MiG-29s. The IAF hopes to add more muscle with the induction of the LCA, more Su-30s, Indo-Russian fifth-generation fighter aircraft and possibly a medium-weight fighter that could be built in India in collaboration with a foreign player.

    The IAF had told a Parliamentary panel in February 2014 that Pakistan would certainly fish in troubled waters if China were to launch offensive operations against India. It, however, stressed that China may not pose “a collusive threat” if hostilities were to break out between India and Pakistan.

    On the sale of eight F-16s to Pakistan, Dhanoa said it would not drastically alter the air power balance in the region but “it makes my life more difficult” as the IAF has to field a more hi-tech platform against it.

    “War, conflict or adventure takes place when he (the enemy)


    http://www.defencenews.in/article/Indian-Air-Force-admits-can’t-fight-China,-Pak-at-the-same-time-3434
     
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  3. smestarz

    smestarz Senior Member Senior Member

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    Next india is going to admit, we cannot even face bangladesh..
    Its old news being repeated by AVM, I guess he wants to show the top boss that "Dont worry sir, I shall repeat what you say " By the way, which AVM handles the Spares and maintenance?
     
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  4. DingDong

    DingDong Senior Member Senior Member

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    Let us accept the stated fact, fighting a two front war will be difficult particularly if one of the adversaries is China and the another one is a "suicidal" Pakistan. China's defence preparedness is meant to counter the US. China has bigger GDP and spends considerably more on defence. Plus Pakistan will receive supplies from China.
     
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  5. myana

    myana Regular Member

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    I wonder why are our armed forces publicizing our deficiencies. any Rafale motive here :shock:

    IMHO buying Rafale is waste we can do away with Su30MKI & Tejas MK1A/MK2,
    Su35 will also be waste as Su30 Upgrade will be more or less equals to Su35.

    Buying second hand Mirages or new/old Mig29UPG/SMT will be good as they can be upgraded and used with the existing fleet without adding any burden on existing maintenance & infrastructure

    We should order some 50+Su34s which can create its own place in IAF as Heavy bomber(we don't need B2s or B52s or any other Bombers) can later on be used as replacement squadrons of Mig27 & also for Jaguars.

    Mig21 & its variants can only be replaced by Tejas and nothing else

    Also arrests dwindling numbers of squadrons in IAF.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2016
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  6. Superdefender

    Superdefender Regular Member

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    Had IAF gone the path of IN toward self-relient, it would not have faced so much necessities today. Still it is not too late.
     
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  7. salute

    salute Senior Member Senior Member

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    bs childish drama for rafales,

    these foreign jets lovers called iaf,

    all they want is to wiggle their tongue all over rafale for french kiss from rafale.
     
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  8. smestarz

    smestarz Senior Member Senior Member

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    Supplying pakistan during war will be difficult, there are two routes, one via Sea (which surely Pakistan will not get, and other is via POK-China route.. This will be targeted by IAF the moment it enters PoK..
     
  9. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Sea blockade is very difficult. I would not bank on it.

    POK-China route is easier to cut.

    Indian armchair Generals have a tendency to be over-optimistic.

    Pakistan also has land routes to the West. Remember the way some Indians are hell bent on pissing off Russia, I would not be surprised if Pakistan gets supplies via central Asia.
     
  10. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Even if India sinks the entire Pakistani surface fleet, Pakistan can still get supplies. India cannot easily stop Chinese or Saudi ships from carrying supplies to Pakistani ports. We should be realistic about war.

    India's win will be predicated on Indian industry able to supply much greater amount of war materiel. This is possible only with support of civilian industry.
     
  11. Superdefender

    Superdefender Regular Member

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    You are fogetting our partner Israel. It will not just sit like duck and watch the whole drama, will it?
     
  12. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    Israel is only a supplier. Why do you think israel will enter a war on India's behalf?

    Had India fought with Israel in its wars?
     
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  13. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think we must stick to basics.

    1. India cannot blockade Pakistan by sea, or even land.

    2. India cannot expect a foreign power to fight on its behalf.

    With these basics in place, we can discuss further.
     
  14. Nuvneet Kundu

    Nuvneet Kundu Senior Member Senior Member

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    Let's admit the fact that the IAF has a history of deliberately coming out with such statements every six months. These laments are strategically timed, and it's always an IAF guy giving a personal briefing to news channels and writing editorials in top news papers like some chuglikhor housewives talking about their mother-in-laws. What stops them from submitting a report to the MoD? What stopped them from making these accusations during UPA tenure? this randi rona starts every time an indigenous project is undertaken. They try very hand to stall it by making it look like the indigenous equipment will take many decades to become operational and it would leave the nation vulnerable to invasion form Pakistan and China UNLESS we give in to their demands and buy whichever shiny expensive imported plane they want. No airforce chief of any nation ever takes personal press conferences declaring the nation's vulnerability like this. I have flagged this issue before but people like @Sakal Gharelu Ustad think that IAF is beyond criticism and we must keep our mouth shut.

    @Kshatriya87 you see now what I was talking about? I predicted last month that there is a pattern to this randi rona of "ohh we will get invaded by Pakistan and China if we don't buy imported planes". You thought I was exaggerating, well, look at the headlines now. Just wait for a few days, these IAF guys will start writing blogs about how the nation's existence is at threat because we refused to buy those planes for which they have been paid hefty bribes. There is corruption at very top level but we want to see them with an aura of halo.

    National defense has to be a comprehensive policy and the airforce must understand that they are not the only ones who will fight and win wars. There are other means of conducting war, or deterring adversaries which are at the nation's disposal. One needs to act as per the national script instead of following their personal script and behaving like divas.

    My suggestion still stands. Take away the IAF's deep strike role and give it to Navy, take away their CAS role and give it to the Army. Just let IAF deal with air superiority role (which @Srinivas_K disagrees with) . These people have no intention to work along with the nation. They just keep asking for more and more foreign equipment and talking out of turn. They did this drama even when Parrikar was negotiating the Rafale deal. They think they are the sole custodian and stake holder in India's defense ecosystem and the nation should just keep throwing more money to satisfy their whims. The air warfare gaps can be patched with air defense systems, ballistic defense shields, and offensive ground launched missiles, but the IAF deliberately never brings up these options because they don't want there to be an option available which will reduce their importance. They just want to maintain monopoly so that they can justify hefty budgets.

    I hope the MoD gives them a memo for talking out of turn. This repeated drama is intolerable!
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2016
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  15. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Guys, this statement was made keeping the numbers in mind. He said we can't face a 2 front war because of the lesser numbers. We have 33 squadrons right now as opposed to the required 42.
     
  16. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Israel will fight because it has always wanted to. It has always wanted to because Pakistan is the only nuclear armed islamic country and has time and again threatened Israel and hates jews. Also, pakis have gone ahead to claim that their nuke is an islamic bomb and will be used to protect the islamic nations. Hence it poses a direct danger to Israel.
     
  17. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    His problem is with numbers. If its numbers he wants, stuff his mouth with 9 Tejas squadrons. With a total of 42 squadrons, he wouldn't be able to cry anymore.
     
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  18. Nuvneet Kundu

    Nuvneet Kundu Senior Member Senior Member

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    There are many books written on this issue, there are many defense experts who have criticized the IAF for coming up with cooked up requirements and cooked up squadron availability. One day they say we have 33, next day they say 28, then 24. 42 are sanctioned but there are other realities to keep in mind. Even our defense budget sanctions 3% of GDP but we utilize just 1.9% of it, same is the case with Navy submarine project where sanctioned strength is much more but they are making do with less, same is the case with Army who is making do with Insas. The security environment keeps changing and the nation has to respond holistically. The IAF's repeated quotes about 42 squads is just like Pakistan's rants "But what about Nehru's promise?". Are bhai situation change ho gayi hai, stop asking for more. MAYBE, just maybe the security cabinet has seen some other form of deterring the enemy (S400) or developed an offensive land-based weapon (Brahmos) which offsets the need for 42 squads. If the IAF guy had brought this up in a private meeting, or security cabinet, he would have gotten a satisfactory response. Now, the defense minister can't come on national news channels and debate his own IAF chief and reveal everything can he? what is the IAF trying to prove by making press conferences?

    There is a pattern of arrogance with IAF. I saw that even when it was decided to give CAS ability to Army, the IAF said "it will be too costly to build new flight training centers for Army" so he was indirectly hinting that "if you give CAS planes to Army, we will refuse to train 'their' pilots, so they will need to build their own training centers". IAF as an organization takes inter-service rivalry to such heights that they start lobbying for the fulfillment of personal interests at the expense of national interests. They are obsessed with defending their own legacy posts to stay relevant. IAF is the least co-operative among all the services of India. They are prima donnas who see themselves as having superiority over others. IAF must realize that they are a part of a larger national defense framework and that they don't operate as an isolated independent organization. Whatever assets are assigned to them have to fit into a comprehensive national plan.

    Was it really necessary to take this press conference to expose alleged deficiencies in our defense preparedness and flay the nation in public? Do you still believe that whatever this person said was done keeping national interest in mind? Was that the driving force behind the press conference? Obviously not. It was done for petty political reasons. The government should immediately initiate an inquiry to see if they have acquired any disproportionate assets from foreign defense agents.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2016
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  19. smestarz

    smestarz Senior Member Senior Member

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    Sea blockade is actually easy, with just Subs, But should we be content to just block? Actually taking Karachi ofensively takes out one big supply route. The other route is from West... which will be limited. Only being the CA countries
     
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  20. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    We invest about 1.65% of GDP on defence. And thanks to rapid economic growth that budget is increasing even after decrease in percentage.

    Indian Navy itself says that low budget led to it's indigenization. Yet our AF is too luxury because of high budget.
    Watch at PLA, they asked to fight with whatever they are given.
    India must invest 2% or more only after 50%+ of equipment is indigenized and must control nakhre of our AF who is asking for American HARM missile even after availability of indigenous missile NGARM of same class.
     
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  21. Nuvneet Kundu

    Nuvneet Kundu Senior Member Senior Member

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    Exactly. In fact, the MoD must invite these IAF divas to a meeting and tell them plainly, "if you think you can't win a war given the current scenario, then we completely understand your predicament and don't want you to take the blame for any loss that you may suffer in a future fight. Please resign. We will find someone who is willing to act according to the national script". These spoiled brats need to be straightened.
     
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