In 1990, China had 465 megatons of thermonuclear weapons

Discussion in 'China' started by Martian, Apr 7, 2016.

  1. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Since 1990, 26 years have passed.

    China has built the DF-31A ICBM (year 2007), DF-5B ICBM, and DF-41 ICBM (year 2012). Also, China has built the JL-2 SLBM (year 2001).

    A fair estimate of China's current megatonnage is probably around 1,000 megatons of thermonuclear weapons.
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    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - Google Books

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Crisp high-definition video of China's first atomic blast in 1964

    China's atomic blast in 1964 was an amazing achievement because their atomic bomb was designed without supercomputers. Incredibly, in three short years, China made the leap to a 3.3 megaton thermonuclear blast in 1967.

    By safeguarding China from foreign invasions through the development of thermonuclear warheads and ICBM technology by 1971, Mao Zedong gave China the breathing room to develop its economy in peace. These two milestones will forever cement Mao Zedong's claim to the title of China's greatest leader.

    Coupled with Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms, the rest is history. China has grown into an economic and military superpower. "The Chinese people have stood up!"

    Video of the 22-kiloton Chinese atomic explosion in 1964

     
  4. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Video of the 3.3-megaton Chinese thermonuclear explosion in 1967

     
  5. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Some time ago there was a report that Chinese Nuclear bomb and of seventy technology of russia and there was hardly any improvement. They started improving it some time ago out of fear of Indian competition. Chinese bombs are nothing more than dud.
     
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  6. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    @Martian I heard on an American site that you guys have 3000 nukes.
    Is that true? :D
     
  7. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    That's an estimate on the high end by Georgetown University. The author is an expert who used to work for the Pentagon (I think).

    I counted the number of KNOWN Chinese ICBM sites and SLBMs. I'll post it when I have time. It's a long post.
     
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  8. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Probably which you have posted on PDF I guess.
    Agree on American hypocrisy.
    Somebody expressed "concerns" because India has enough material for 1,000 nukes (like India has nothing else to do with nuclear material except bombs :D ). There was a rumour ofIndian Nuclear city for developing thermonuclear bombs just after FBR.
    Even after fail of Pokhran-II, advances made later, IMO, we could design a successful H-Bomb of around 150-200kt yield.
    So, there's higher probability of reliability even without test (at least better than worst).
    What's your opinion, China hasn't conducted tests from decades, where it's capability of high yield nuke should have reached. And how long India would take to have capability for Megaton club? o_O
     
  9. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    India had a capability of 200 KN in 2000 at the time of Pokharan test. India is now working of 5 MT bomb as per some information I read on some blog.
     
  10. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    We know two facts.

    1. China conducted a 3.3-megaton hydrogen blast in 1967.
    2. China has a thermonuclear warhead very similar to the W-88 (based on seismic data).

    China's largest thermonuclear warhead is on the DF-5A with five megatons, which is a little bigger than the 1967 test.

    The Chinese W-88 was successfully tested and is placed on MIRVed ICBMs and SLBMs.

    Thus, China's thermonuclear (ie. hydrogen bomb) warheads are all thoroughly tested and reliable designs.
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    Regarding India, the first atomic test was in 1974. To date, there has been no successful detonation above about 20 kilotons (see Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory seismic data analysis of India nuclear tests).

    This means India has shown no ability to build a hydrogen bomb for over 30 years.

    In contrast, China went from a 22-kiloton atomic bomb (in 1964) to a 3.3-megaton hydrogen bomb (in 1967). The time required was a mere three years.

    This leads me to the conclusion that the Indian atomic bomb was most likely not indigenous. Otherwise, the Indian atomic scientists should have been able to make the leap to a hydrogen bomb after more than 30 years.
     
  11. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    We know two facts.

    1. China conducted a 3.3-megaton hydrogen blast in 1967.
    2. China has a thermonuclear warhead very similar to the W-88 (based on seismic data).

    China's largest thermonuclear warhead is on the DF-5A with five megatons, which is a little bigger than the 1967 test.

    The Chinese W-88 was successfully tested and is placed on MIRVed ICBMs and SLBMs.

    Thus, China's thermonuclear (ie. hydrogen bomb) warheads are all thoroughly tested and reliable designs.
    ----------

    Regarding India, the first atomic test was in 1974. To date, there has been no successful detonation above about 20 kilotons (see Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory seismic data analysis of India nuclear tests).

    This means India has shown no ability to build a hydrogen bomb for over 30 years.

    In contrast, China went from a 22-kiloton atomic bomb (in 1964) to a 3.3-megaton hydrogen bomb (in 1967). The time required was a mere three years.

    This leads me to the conclusion that the Indian atomic bomb was most likely not indigenous. Otherwise, the Indian atomic scientists should have been able to make the leap to a hydrogen bomb after more than 30 years.
     
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  12. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    JL 2 had not got initial operation clearance even in 2014. Chinese cheer leaders are very enthusiastic. JL 2 has just 7000 KM + Range with 700 KG payload and it is much inferior to K 4 like missile which can strike at 4000 KM with 2 ton payload. With half of the load, Technology wise JL2 is nowhere near K4.

    http://defensetiger.blogspot.in/2014/01/chinas-slbm-jl-2-is-near-initial.html
     
  13. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    By 2008, the Chinese JL-2 SLBM was successfully tested and functional.

    TWO CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL JL-2 SLBM TEST FLIGHTS

    JL-2 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica

    [​IMG]
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    Picture of Chinese JL-2 SLBM (aka Chinese Trident C4):
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Delete your duplicate posts.
    BTW,
    1974 was a small cracker.
    But if you know 1998, there were 5 nuclear tests together and that even underground, so some yield absorbed by ground and simultaneous tests created problem in calculating actual yield.
    This was explained in every report (including yours).
    Later by surveying, yield was suggested at least 35 KT.
    And India has made enormous progress in nuclear tech from then.



    Now, our indigenuity,
    Off topic: Your country is ahead even us in copying or even stealing weapons. Don't give us that metaphor so.
    On topic:
    If Indian Nuclear wasn't indigenous then, how could it built Thorium based or FBRs(a technology generally not shared).
    Indians scientists barely could do any test to ensure reliability of tests.
    On the other hand, from using nuclear tech in medical to astrophysics, particle study(A neutrino reactor also is being inaugurated this year).
    In miniaturizing reactor to other all things, India isn't much behind P5 unlike Pak or N. Korea(in fact their tech is stolen). US also couldn't detect our recent missile test.
    Moreover, India could be world's third country to send a nuclear powered space mission (cancelled due to lack of time, will be in successor Cdy-3) and that's before China.
    So, it's completely nonsense to estimate Indian Capabilities only over nuclear tests (which India can't even do because of sanctions).
     
  15. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Do you have any update on K-5.
    It's range could be upto 10000km.
    Equal to Trident.
     
  16. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Think about the implication if the Indian atomic bomb was indigenous.

    You are saying Indian scientists are not as smart as American, Russian, or Chinese scientists. The British and French have admitted receiving US help on their nuclear weapons, so they don't really count.

    For the US, Russia, and China, the hydrogen bomb followed the atomic bomb no later than about five years.

    It's been 42 years for India. (2016 - 1974 = 42 years)

    You've got a problem.

    Either you accept the Indian atomic bomb was not indigenous and the blueprint was given to India. There was a story in BusinessWeek during the 1980s alleging that Pakistan received an early version Chinese atomic bomb design from the 1960s.

    Otherwise, you'll have a very hard time explaining why brilliant Indian nuclear scientists are not as smart as Americans, Russians, or Chinese.

    I picked the more logical choice. The Indian blueprint was given by another country.

    In contrast, you're basically claiming Indian scientists are not as smart and can't make the leap to thermonuclear weapons.

    Choose your poison.
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    By the way, I think the North Korean bomb is probably an old Chinese design. The North Koreans either received the blueprints directly from China decades ago or they bartered for it from Pakistan.

    Like India and Pakistan, North Korea also can't build a hydrogen bomb (after one decade).

    History has shown that if your scientists are smart enough to design and build an atomic bomb, it takes five years or less to build a hydrogen bomb. Failure to build a hydrogen bomb after 10 (in North Korea's case) or 42 years (in India's case) strongly hints at a non-native origin of a country's atomic bomb.

    Logic: Since you never designed the original atomic bomb, it is logical that you can't design the successor hydrogen bomb.

    You cannot walk in the American, Russian, and Chinese footsteps because you don't have the experience from designing an atomic bomb.

    A technician can build an atomic bomb from a blueprint that is provided to his country. A technician cannot design a more-sophisticated hydrogen bomb.

    A scientist that built his own atomic bomb can always build a hydrogen bomb with a few years' of effort. This was true for the United States, Russia, and China.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2016
  17. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    No.

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/china/jl-2.htm

    Commission reported in November 2013 that "China’s Julang-2 (JL–2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is expected to reach initial operational capability by late 2013.

    Till 2014 Initial operation clearance was not granted. So it is faraway from getting final operational clearance. It is no where near K4 in terms of technology. In order to state low range , India has stated that it is just 3500 KM range with 2+ ton payload. Actually if you look at the range Vs payload graph, it will have around 10 K range with 700 K G Payload (Which is the payload of JL 2 with 7500 KM Range.

    J L @ specification.

    Specifications
    Contractor Academy of Rocket Motors Technology - ARMT
    Configuration Three Stage
    Length [meters] 10+
    Diameter [meters] 2.0
    Mass [kilograms] 20,000+
    Propellant Solid
    Guidance Inertial
    First Flight 19
    IOC 19
    Deployment Type 094 SSBN
    Range (km) 7,500-8,000
    Re-entry Vehicle Mass (kg) 700 kg
    Warhead Yield 3 or 4 MIRV @ 90 kT
    1 @ 250-1000 kT
    CEP (meters) 500 ??

    K4 Has CEP in single digit against 500 M of J L 2. JL 2 is a crap copy of 70 ERA russian missile.

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/china/jl-2.htm
     
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  18. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I do not have but whole K series is designed to have a very low weight and very high range with depressed trajectory with phenomenal payload. Country like china can not think of any missile weighing 17 tons and can carry 2+ ton payload at 4000 KM Distance. K 4 is leagues ahead. Yes, K5 can certainly have the range in excess of 10K KM with 1 ton payload.

    Look at K4. To state low range, they have stated the range with a phenomenal payload of 2+ ton.

    On the contrast, China states JL 2's range with only 700 KG to state high range.

    Read here on JL 2 with most authentic source.

    The 2013 Report To Congress Of The U.S.-China Economic And Security Review Commission reported in November 2013 that "China’s Julang-2 (JL–2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is expected to reach initial operational capability by late 2013. The JL–2,
     
  19. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Again my point,
    India faced a great diplomatic trouble in 74. After that, India's nuclear program has always been under eyes of UN for years.
    Even after that, India did tests in 98.
    And once again, recent developments in civilian sector adds more plus point on our account.

    You are calling our minds inferior to US, Russia and China but they had enough time and privileges to do that.

    Even after being surrounded by world's tallest mountain and third largest Ocean, starting from 98% (now 12% )poverty and 13% literacy(now 75%),
    China was enemy, Soviet and other second works countries remained neutral to US(yet west missed no chance to annoy us), developing weapons in sanctions and weapon exports multiplied by 6 folds in an year of main program, or having a very successful nuclear program (in civilian sector), chemical, space, some of most useful innovations, etc. etc. (I don't wanna exaggerate),
    It's clear we aren't stupid to reach even today's level even after those problems, well ahead of almost all countries of our class.
    And would be reaching at no. 3, please don't question our smartness at least.
    We will also do tests when will have chance.


    (And that won't be much far given our rising status).
     
  20. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Initial Operating Capability is a judgment call.

    The JL-2 was shown to be operational by 2008.

    It is pointless to argue when it was exactly operational. Different people have different definitions.
     
  21. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Oh please. Stop making excuses.

    China was a fourth world country in 1964 and they still built the hydrogen bomb by 1967.

    If I agree with you that the Indian atomic bomb was native, I would have to conclude that Indians are not as smart as Americans, Russians, or Chinese. I'm trying to avoid this unpalatable conclusion. This path means there is a serious IQ gap between Chinese and Indians.
     

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