IMF projections for BRIC nominal GDP (2015-2019)

[LalTopi]

most of CHina's GDP is manufacturing,mining,construction and farming,which is decisive sector to measure one country's economy might.

that is why auto sale,concrete sale,house sale and almost all sales(even film sale) in CHina has surpasssed those in USA while CHina's nominal GDP is only 60% of USA's

I'm case you had not noticed all this China manufactuing is shifting over to India, Vietnam etc. Manufacturing is actually low hanging fruit which follows where labour is cheapest and governments friendly. So India will in the medium to long term get much of China's manufacturing, yet on the other hand India already has well developed service sectors such as IT, medicine, etc. Service sectors which China's politicians are desporatly trying to develop to replace the over exposed manufacturing sector. China is heavily exposed to manufactured exports which other countries can now produce cheaper, hence it needs to move to a higher domestic consumption and services sector model. Read the earlier post by your compatriot @t_co.

China is desparate to rebalance its economy without the whole country collapsing in the transition. But as the recent stock market crash demonstrated, even your own domestic investors are scared shitless at the risks.

 

[badguy2000]

Offcourse, Indian and US economies are overhyped.

And China keeps fudging numbers to project their economy as the smaller one.



The disparity between India and China is because of the different state the the economies are in. China is now a middle income country and India is not. Average Chinese can spend much more on luxury than your average Indian because of the disposable income.

The difference between the disposable income of Indians and Chinese is huge, between per capita income is not.

Is it really that difficult to understand?

Then,how do you explain why USA consumes /produce less manufacturing,mining,farming and construction goods than CHINA,while yankees should have had more disposable income as high~income people according to your theory.

 

[badguy2000]

I'm case you had not noticed all this China manufactuing is shifting over to India, Vietnam etc. Manufacturing is actually low hanging fruit which follows where labour is cheapest and governments friendly. So India will in the medium to long term get much of China's manufacturing, yet on the other hand India already has well developed service sectors such as IT, medicine, etc. Service sectors which China's politicians are desporatly trying to develop to replace the over exposed manufacturing sector. China is heavily exposed to manufactured exports which other countries can now produce cheaper, hence it needs to move to a higher domestic consumption and services sector model. Read the earlier post by your compatriot @t_co.

China is desparate to rebalance its economy without the whole country collapsing in the transition. But as the recent stock market crash demonstrated, even your own domestic investors are scared shitless at the risks.

If cheap labour is decisive factor of industry shift, black africa would have been the world workshop long ago.

 

[Bheeshma]

Chinese economy figures are absolute BS. Their growth rate is really below 5% for the last couple of qtrs. Though the chinese govt has been lying and claiming 7-7.1%.

 

[Martian]

Chinese economy figures are absolute BS. Their growth rate is really below 5% for the last couple of qtrs. Though the chinese govt has been lying and claiming 7-7.1%.

You forgot to account for trade.

Without trade, let's say China's economy is growing 5%.

Since China's nominal GDP in 2014 was $10.4 trillion, let's take a look at the effect of trade.

China's half-year trade merchandise surplus for 2015 is $263 billion. The full-year 2015 merchandise trade surplus will be $500 billion. This means the merchandise trade surplus of exported goods is adding another 5% to China's economic growth.

However, Chinese tourists are spending a lot of money overseas. Also, Chinese parents pay large sums of money for their child's overseas education. China is running a service trade deficit of about $250 billion per year. This is a drag of about 2.5% on China's service economy.

By summing up China's merchandise exports surplus and service-trade deficit, China is running a balance-of-payment surplus of about $250 billion per year. This means China's overall economy is getting a boost of about 2.5% GDP.

In conclusion, China's 5% economic growth plus the 2.5% boost from the balance-of-payment surplus equal a total of 7.5% economic growth. This is very close to China's reported 7% economic growth. The numbers look about right.

To make the numbers fit exactly, China's economy is growing at 4.5% and the total trade balance (ie. China's merchandise export surplus - China's service-trade deficit) is adding 2.5% to China's economy. This adds up to China's reported 7% economic growth. It makes sense.

 

[punjab47]

Indian Ocean is next big growth area,

 

[Martian]

The PC16 countries have collapsing currencies. Here are two examples from the larger economies.

One US dollar used to buy 12.5 Mexican pesos. Today, one dollar buys 16.3 Mexican pesos.
The Mexican Peso has lost 25% of its value in the last six months.

One US dollar used to buy 10,000 Indonesian rupiahs. Today, one dollar buys 13,512 Indonesian rupiahs.
The Indonesian Rupiah has lost 25% of its value in the last 18 months.

 

[blueblood]

Then,how do you explain why USA consumes /produce less manufacturing,mining,farming and construction goods than CHINA,while yankees should have had more disposable income as high~income people according to your theory.

Again with the BS logic of China is the largest consumer of steel.

UK for all intents and purpose produces nothing and consumes barely a fraction of steel and cement China does. Not even 1/10th. Do you think China's economy is anywhere close to the UK's economy as far as stabilization and per capita income is concerned.

If yes then you are on your own.

Luxembourg. Lichtenstein and Monaco has the highest per capita income in the world.

Shall we compare their production of steel and cement to China?

 

[punjab47]

The PC16 countries have collapsing currencies. Here are two examples from the larger economies.

One US dollar used to buy 12.5 Mexican pesos. Today, one dollar buys 16.3 Mexican pesos.
The Mexican Peso has lost 25% of its value in the last six months.

One US dollar used to buy 10,000 Indonesian rupiahs. Today, one dollar buys 13,512 Indonesian rupiahs.
The Indonesian Rupiah has lost 25% of its value in the last 18 months.

That is because of strengthening USA dollar as the debts are paid off, due to people leaving it.

I think blacks are burning one of your cities again,

 

[punjab47]

Again with the BS logic of China is the largest consumer of steel.

UK for all intents and purpose produces nothing and consumes barely a fraction of steel and cement China does. Not even 1/10th. Do you think China's economy is anywhere close to the UK's economy as far as stabilization and per capita income is concerned.

If yes then you are on your own.

Luxembourg. Lichtenstein and Monaco has the highest per capita income in the world.

Shall we compare their production of steel and cement to China?

The fiat digital currency of today, stops true price discovery as it's all a game of debt & 0s 1s.

It masks the fact that western countries have basically been collapsing for the past 30-40 years.

This 'martian' will say how America greatest economy, military but then how he explain why American girls going to sleep with Arab sheiks for 500 US.

 

[badguy2000]

Again with the BS logic of China is the largest consumer of steel.

UK for all intents and purpose produces nothing and consumes barely a fraction of steel and cement China does. Not even 1/10th. Do you think China's economy is anywhere close to the UK's economy as far as stabilization and per capita income is concerned.

If yes then you are on your own.

Luxembourg. Lichtenstein and Monaco has the highest per capita income in the world.

Shall we compare their production of steel and cement to China?

1.UK' real economy sectors(manufacturing,farming,mining and constructiong) is in the same league of S.korea and some Chinese rich provinces say Guangdong.
that is why now we usually compare CHina with EU ,instead of UK.

2.Judging by per capita consumption(food,industry production,electricity,auto,PC,houses), the real life quality gap between rich CHinese areas such as Yangzi river Delta and UK is quite limited ,if such a gap were still exists.
for example, 6M populiation of Suzhou perfecture bought 0.3 m autos in 2014
60K population of UK bought only 2.5M autos in 2014.
1.2 billion populaiton of India bought only 3M autos in 2014 too.

3. most West countries(including UK) have kept their GDP hollowen for decades,while they include "unhelpful service sectors" into GDP as possible as possible.
maybe the only exception is German,which still keep quite active and consolidated manufacturing sector.that is also why German now has a obvious economy edge on other EU states,especially PIGS.


4. It is CCP's decade-long moto to deliberate keep a low profile and hide its claws in the front of USA,before CHina feel it mature to overthrow the dominace of USA .
so ,it is not strange at all that CCP keep fundging its GDP

 

[pmaitra]

The size of an economy determines national power. For example, how many missiles can China produce each year? The answer is 10,000 annually during peacetime.

By the way, PPP is a useless measure. There is no such thing as a PPP dollar. You cannot buy a Boeing aircraft or a French Rafale with PPP dollars. In the real world, only nominal U.S. dollars are used in transactions.

How would one compute the size of the economy? Using GDP?

GDP also includes transactions that are essentially net consumption, as much as it includes net contribution. Is the size of the economy indeed a fool proof way to judge the national power?

Also, what about Debt-to-GDP ratio? A very large economy might as well be neck deep in debt. It cannot pay off the debt, so it continues to borrow more money to pay off old debts. If it want to pay off debts, then it would have to bring in austerity measures, and it would end up like Greece.

These are all projections.

 

[Martian]

How would one compute the size of the economy? Using GDP?

GDP also includes transactions that are essentially net consumption, as much as it includes net contribution. Is the size of the economy indeed a fool proof way to judge the national power?

Also, what about Debt-to-GDP ratio? A very large economy might as well be neck deep in debt. It cannot pay off the debt, so it continues to borrow more money to pay off old debts. If it want to pay off debts, then it would have to bring in austerity measures, and it would end up like Greece.

These are all projections.

Look at the stability of the country's currency. If a country is consistently running large trade surpluses and has an appreciating currency, the nominal GDP truly reflects the economic strength and GDP of the country. China falls into this category.

When you include the effect of inflation, China's Yuan has appreciated by 40% against the US dollar over the past five years.

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On the other hand, a Greece-like country would run persistently large trade deficits. A country in this category has a depreciating currency and it may suffer a Greece-like economic collapse.

The Indian Rupee has lost 33% of its value against the US dollar in the past four years.

The Russian Ruble has lost 50% of its value against the US dollar during the past year.

The Brazilian Real has lost 40% of its value against the US dollar during the past two years.

 

[CrYsIs]

I'm case you had not noticed all this China manufactuing is shifting over to India, Vietnam etc. Manufacturing is actually low hanging fruit which follows where labour is cheapest and governments friendly. So India will in the medium to long term get much of China's manufacturing, yet on the other hand India already has well developed service sectors such as IT, medicine, etc. Service sectors which China's politicians are desporatly trying to develop to replace the over exposed manufacturing sector. China is heavily exposed to manufactured exports which other countries can now produce cheaper, hence it needs to move to a higher domestic consumption and services sector model. Read the earlier post by your compatriot @t_co.

China is desparate to rebalance its economy without the whole country collapsing in the transition. But as the recent stock market crash demonstrated, even your own domestic investors are scared shitless at the risks.

No,you are wrong there.Manufacturing has yet to move from China to India.Media reports say that many have moved to SE Asia instead of India.

India despite have much lower costs is still not favoured by manufacturers,precisely because of the cumbersome laws relating to labour and land.Ofcourse some manufacturing is coming to India but on a much smaller scale.

The famous service sectors that you proudly talk about is India's achilles heel and not really an asset.

China is moving to service sector in a planned manner like most others have done.First uplift the society by focusing on manufacturing and then move to services as standards of living improves.

 

[pmaitra]

Look at the stability of the country's currency. If a country is consistently running large trade surpluses and has an appreciating currency, the nominal GDP truly reflects the economic strength and GDP of the country. China falls into this category.

When you include the effect of inflation, China's Yuan has appreciated by 40% against the US dollar over the past five years.

----------

On the other hand, a Greece-like country would run persistently large trade deficits. A country in this category has a depreciating currency and it may suffer a Greece-like economic collapse.

The Indian Rupee has lost 33% of its value against the US dollar in the past four years.

The Russian Ruble has lost 50% of its value against the US dollar during the past year.

The Brazilian Real has lost 40% of its value against the US dollar during the past two years.

Appreciating currency might not be a good indicator. Since the US Dollar is the single largest currency for international trade, other countries will always try to devalue their own currencies to stimulate exports. PRC has been artificially devaluing its currency, and is a manufacturing giant. Surely, currency exchange rate does not seem to indicate anything as far as economic strength is concerned.

 

[Martian]

Appreciating currency might not be a good indicator. Since the US Dollar is the single largest currency for international trade, other countries will always try to devalue their own currencies to stimulate exports. PRC has been artificially devaluing its currency, and is a manufacturing giant. Surely, currency exchange rate does not seem to indicate anything as far as economic strength is concerned.

I disagree. Over a long period of time (e.g. 5 to 10 years), a country's economic strengths and weaknesses reveal themselves.

The US dollar has been strong for decades. Clearly, the US has the strongest economy in the world.

China's currency has been appreciating for about 10 years (from 8.26 to 6.21 Yuans per US dollar). Additionally, China's $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves and $500 billion merchandise trade surplus this year are strong indicators of continued economic strength.

A country's currency incorporates all of the known information. While traders may make short-term errors, a country's currency reflects the underlying economic strength (or weakness) of a country over the long term.

Everyone knew that Greece was going to collapse sooner or later. Greece had a lousy credit rating.

In contrast, China has an excellent credit rating of AA-.

India is one notch above junk at BBB-.

Russia is one notch below junk rating at Ba1.

Brazil is at one notch above junk at BBB- with a negative outlook.

In conclusion, a country's currency and credit rating provide a fairly accurate picture of its economic strength.

 

[saipaimai]

China's GDP data， the Chinese do not believe that too, in addition to fraud or fraud

 

[pmaitra]

I disagree. Over a long period of time (e.g. 5 to 10 years), a country's economic strengths and weaknesses reveal themselves.

The US dollar has been strong for decades. Clearly, the US has the strongest economy in the world.

China's currency has been appreciating for about 10 years (from 8.26 to 6.21 Yuans per US dollar). Additionally, China's $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves and $500 billion merchandise trade surplus this year are strong indicators of continued economic strength.

A country's currency incorporates all of the known information. While traders may make short-term errors, a country's currency reflects the underlying economic strength (or weakness) of a country over the long term.

Everyone knew that Greece was going to collapse sooner or later. Greece had a lousy credit rating.

In contrast, China has an excellent credit rating of AA-.

India is one notch above junk at BBB-.

Russia is one notch below junk rating at Ba1.

Brazil is at one notch above junk at BBB- with a negative outlook.

In conclusion, a country's currency and credit rating provide a fairly accurate picture of its economic strength.

You said: "The US dollar has been strong for decades. Clearly, the US has the strongest economy in the world."

You have not provided any evidence that a strong currency means a country's economic strength is high.

You also said, "A country's currency incorporates all of the known information. While traders may make short-term errors, a country's currency reflects the underlying economic strength (or weakness) of a country over the long term."

This statement is patently false. By your logic, Brunei is more economically powerful than India. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Credit rating? It means absolutely nothing. Personally, I don't care what Standard and Poor, Moody, Fitch, etc., say. They are all western rating agencies and they scratch each others backs. If you are under the impression they are autonomous and follow some set rules, then you are misinformed.

The facts are out there for everyone to see. Greece was given a loan when the creditors knew for certain Greece was going to go belly up. Even Ukraine got IMF loan when it was clear they were in the same category as Somalia. India's credit rating is one notch above junk? Cool. Let it be there. Nobody gives a tuppence about what some unknown person says about India.

Basically, I think most of your post circumambulates the typical Wall Street dogma that are designed to benefit the self serving honchos that run Wall Street, not for the benefit of us.

You said, "In conclusion, a country's currency and credit rating provide a fairly accurate picture of its economic strength."

I disagree with your conclusion.

 

[badguy2000]

You said: "The US dollar has been strong for decades. Clearly, the US has the strongest economy in the world."

You have not provided any evidence that a strong currency means a country's economic strength is high.

You also said, "A country's currency incorporates all of the known information. While traders may make short-term errors, a country's currency reflects the underlying economic strength (or weakness) of a country over the long term."

This statement is patently false. By your logic, Brunei is more economically powerful than India. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Credit rating? It means absolutely nothing. Personally, I don't care what Standard and Poor, Moody, Fitch, etc., say. They are all western rating agencies and they scratch each others backs. If you are under the impression they are autonomous and follow some set rules, then you are misinformed.

The facts are out there for everyone to see. Greece was given a loan when the creditors knew for certain Greece was going to go belly up. Even Ukraine got IMF loan when it was clear they were in the same category as Somalia. India's credit rating is one notch above junk? Cool. Let it be there. Nobody gives a tuppence about what some unknown person says about India.

Basically, I think most of your post circumambulates the typical Wall Street dogma that are designed to benefit the self serving honchos that run Wall Street, not for the benefit of us.

You said, "In conclusion, a country's currency and credit rating provide a fairly accurate picture of its economic strength."

I disagree with your conclusion.

Eletricity consumption is the best indicator to measure economy might/real life quality ,because modern economy is based on electricity and any modern economy activity can not be run without elelctricity.

so ,electricty consumption can not lie and distort the truth as GDP or PPP do.


1. total electricity consumption/output shows one county's eocnomy might.
the following is the rank of world electricity consumption in 2010 or so...it also show people how the economy might ranks in the world.

Electricity Consumption (MW h/yr)
01. China 4,693,000,000 (2011)
02. United States 3,886,400,000 (2010)
03. Russia 1,016,500,000 (2012)
04. India 959,070,000 (2011)
05. Japan 859,700,000 (2011)
06. Germany 607,000,000 (2011)
07. Canada 549,500,000 (2008)
08. France 460,900,000 (2008)
09. Brazil 455,700,000 (2010)
10. South Korea 455,100,000 (2011)

2. per capita non-industry electricity consumption exactly shows people's real life quality.
http://www.cwestc.com/newshtml/2014-10-16/348625.shtml
the above link show the rank of world per capita non-industry electricity consumption.
in almost all hign-income economies, their per capita non-industry electricity consumption is 1000+ KWH. for example, that of USA is 4000+ KWH and that of Italy is 1153 KWH.

in almost all mid-income economies ,their per capita non-industry electricity consumption is 400-1000 KWH. for example, that of Russia is 900 KWH and that of CHina is 417 KWH.

In almost all low-income economies ,their per capita non-industry electricity consumption is less than 400 KWH. for example, that of india is is only 137 KWH.

 

[blueblood]

@CrYsIs , I am yet to receive an explanation that how come Nairobians are richer than the people in Prague?

@badguy2000 , But I thought the real mark was the production and consumption of steel and cement.

Also you haven't answered my query about the steel, cement, automobile production of Switzerland or Monaco.

Again, shall we compare them with China?