If India has to go for a two fronts war against China and Pakistan...

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Sabir, Aug 1, 2009.

  1. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Assume it's year 2020. China and India ready to face each other and Pakistan has Joined their old alley. How India should counter enemies simultaneusly..what should be the proper strategy?

    Dont say, You dont want a war. Wars are started by the politicians and fought by the soldiers. Suggest what would be your strategy if you are the decision maker.

    (chosen 2020 as by the time military modernization programme of both China and India will be near completion. So take care of future inductions too, but logically)
     
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  3. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Any wars fought against China will be an alliance, in this World war type of scenario what Alliance would we be in should be the question? we would most likely abandon our no first use policy destroy the weaker of the 2 foes first quickly; than focus on the other, a clue to the alliance maybe the defense pacts we have with various nations.
     
  4. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    First, we should try to anticipate what would be the type of war. It’s clear we can’t win a war against China, nor can China against India. It’s true today and it will be like that after a decade also. Only casualties in both sides can be compared to get a theoretical winner. Full-fledged war is not affordable for both India and China. Expect limited war on the border (considering the roughness of these area implementation of heavy artillery is difficult for both), exchange of missiles, precise air attacks and PLAN’s attempt to destroy at least some of Indian Navy’s strategic assets in Indian Ocean to keep its oil supply line intact till the International community succeeds to bring two countries on a discussion table. On the other hand war against Pakistan has more possibility to be full-fledged considering their enthusiasm getting China with them and having no Himalaya (except the north)in between India and Pakistan preventing the scope of a massive ground battle.

    Pakistan has not declared any no-first-use nuclear policy and there is no chance of that in future. With Pakistan lurking in the west we wont be able to concentrate on China fully and we would be more vulnerable to them than in one-one situation. So it would be logical to go full offensive against Pakistan. India’s priority should be to launch a massive air-attack on Pakistan as soon as war is declared to neutralize its air-force and capability to retaliate with missile attack. It will be a very difficult task and simply not possible if India don’t have long drawn plan and complete knowledge of Pak air-bases, missile lunch pads and other strategically important locations. At least India can ensure intensity of Pak attack to be less and to be dried down within couple of days. In !965 PAF surprised India by attacking air-bases in north India and India was caught off-guard. But later PAF sorties over Indian territory dried down after few days intense air-war due to India’s numerical supremacy. We must try to guess our future inventory (of 2020) of air-crafts. Sukhoi-30 MKI(230),winner of MMRCA(126 -200).LCA Tejas(200). Most Probably few squadron of FGFA and small number of MCA too. Expected with this inventory India would be able to incapacitate Pak air force within few days (and of course we have one advantage that Pakistan doesn’t have the geographical depth). It would be the most crucial part of the war and India’s success will be dependent on it. So IAF has to keep itself prepared for any such thing. At no conditions china would be allowed to use Pakistani air-bases. Otherwise it would be a complete disaster.

    Most probably China will start with a series of missile attacks while mobiling its force in the border. Even today Chaina is capable of raining missiles in Indian territory. But in next ten years India has the opportunity to build up its missile arsenal to answer China. (We are capable of targeting any part of China with Agni-3). Both the countries have to suffer in the exchanges of missiles. Who has better missile defense network will suffer less. Indian Air force should be little defensive against china until half of front line fighters finish their task in Pakistan. Till then it should try to give coverage Indian force from Chinese air attack.

    Indian Navy will have dual task. Preventing PLAN fleet from entering Indian Ocean and finishing off Pakistan navy as fast as possible. PAF will have little chance to provide air coverage to its navy as they would be totally engaged countering IAF . And Pakistan has no aircraft carrier. With Brahmos (possibly Brahmos-2) and Mig-29, naval LCA operating from an Aircraft carrier( possibly we will have three career fleet by the time) it must not be a difficult task for Navy. But PN submarines will be troublesome. There must be massive hunting for them (are not we practicing Anti-submarine war fare with many countries) Wiping out PN and block Karachi wont be that difficult comparing with the task of nutralising PAF. If India has to force Pak top guns to solve it in discussion table Navy can go for Commando operation in korachi of course after crashing the pak resistance their with the help of air-force. But that will enrage Pakistan to go for a nuclear attack provided they are still capable of that.

    India’s Success is totally dependent on how quickly it can get rid of Pakistan and move its full strength against China to bring a dead-lock situation from where no party has anything to gain. If within few days India can get its front line aircrafts free from mission Pakistan (handing over the responsibility to its second line attackers like mig-bison, mirage-2000, mig-27, mig-29 etc) and field them with the squadrons already facing China , it will deter China from going for a air attack against India. Though PLAAF will still have the numerical supremacy but most of its aircrafts (excluding J 10 and Su-MKK)
    wouldn’t be capable of flying so long and attack India. Even if China build up air bases near India border in coming days those will be easily targeted by IAF. India must not do the misadventure of penetrating deep in China as its main objective is to end up in a draw with China.
    In Indian Ocean Chinese Subs will be present and Indian subs in China sea. But main career fleets of both sides should not go far from mainland exposing themselves to air attack. Deterring China in Air, land and ocean India will achieve its objective to maintain a draw against China and resolve the issue through peaceful means.

    In the whole episode the nuclear threat India will have mainly from Pakistan if India failed to destroy its offensive capability fully. But, in that case it will be total destruction of Pakistan. China or India are not likely to nuke each other as that will mean mutual destruction for both.
     
  5. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    why don't you include BMD, AWACS, RISAT, TECSAR, Israeli, Russian and American involvement in the scenario, too one sided and we can invite other nations to use our air bases ; what planes would penetrate indian airspace that it would be a nightmare?? you also left out PAKFA no planes in chinese arsenal would be comprable.
     
  6. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    coming...coming...it's not going to be over easily....perhapes lead to WW3. But here just try to explain what India can do alone. You know there is something ...No nation can improve their military indefinitely...at the higher end slope of the curve is bound to be flatter. That's why China is closing the gap with USA....and in a decade the gap between China and India wont be that of today.
     
  7. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    simple quick solution India has the most tritium in the world, use tactical nukes and hydrogen bombs, and use Brahmos 2 with nuclear warheads and Shauriya with nuclear warheads and use any Neutron bomb we may have, fast and no headache and BMD would intercept whatever we can (97%). At that time our Fast breeder reactors should be pumping out plutonium by the tonnage we should have enough for 700 nukes a year and our nuclear arsenal would probably bigger tha China at that time if utilized. Also launch AGNI MIRV and Prithvi's conventional and unconventional as needed.
     
  8. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Our BMD is not sufficient till now. It's not about technology, but how fast we can build up a network of air defence system to protect our cities and major strategic points. Atleast it will cost us $100 bn to achieve wht air-defence network USA has today
     
  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    In this clash of civilizations- scenario.BMD should be ready by the date you gave of 2020, best solution is a lightning fast overwhelming crippling initial strike send a rain of hypersonic nuclear missiles and cruise missile along with regular ballistic missiles and tactical nukes,so little opportunity is given for retaliation. We should unload all the nukes we can as quickly as we can because this is what the paksitanis will resort to using regarless of how the battle is going or whether we use it or not, so why not use it first in one paralyzing death blow?? We should also have developed UAV's that keep deliver mini nukes with precision by that point.
     
  10. Dark Sorrow

    Dark Sorrow Respected Member Senior Member

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    Mate i don't agree with you in this issue. Military development growth is not a simple issue that can be represented by simple line graph and said what goes up comes down. It is a complex issue that depends on several aspect but the main aspect are :
    (1) Is there a need?
    (2) Do you have enough population to sustain growth?
    (3) How powerful is your economy?
    (4) Do you have required resources and infrastucture?
    All this factor support US. For a next 100 years US will lead when it comes to technology, growth, etc. US alone does so R&D that all asian countries don't and it spends so much in R&D that all asian countries together can't. So it will be next to impossible for china to catch with US the only aspect china can catch with US is number that also in low tech items and not in high tech items.
    A country with better tech wins the war.
    My comment on India China gap in 2020 is that it is too early to tell anything. Things will be much clear by 2013-14.
     
  11. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    China and India will not be able to catch USA in next 50 years. What I tried to say about narrowing down the gap. Just imagine USA and China in 1950. Then USA and China at present time. And about India and China take the example of missile technology. China already possess everything it requires against India. There is hardly anything to add in it. But in next 10 years India can increase its arsenal as well as achieve the striking capability that it requires against China. So the gap will not be so huge that we are seeing today. No country can afford to keep on adding on its arsenal everyday..because maintenance of that will eat up total military budget leaving nothing for technical upgradation. Its believed by most of the economics India and China will be able to sustain growth atleast for next two decades.
    BTW , your suggestion is pending.
     
  12. Jarnee

    Jarnee New Member

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    I think you meant "Thorium"
     
  13. Dark Sorrow

    Dark Sorrow Respected Member Senior Member

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    No, he means tritium. Tritium is one of the byproduct from our PHWR and is of a lot of strategic importance due to its application in H-Bomb.
    Recently we have achieved some breakthrough in its production.
    Here is a good site for reading
    http://www.ccnr.org/india_tritium.html
     
  14. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    IAF attacks Pakistan at night. Since, Pak has 0 fighting capabilities at night, it's gonna be a one man show. Hold positions in the Himalayas against China and don't loose them.

    Try capturing a large number of soldiers from Pakistan and push for a ceasefire with China.
     
  15. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    i think we should build china concentric and pakistan concentric defence forces both working individually with their own unified commands respectively.
     
  16. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    post....merged with earlier one...
    regards,
     
  17. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    india's victory will depend on very mature/advance nuclear programme and doctrine,
    Given the fact india has capable nuclear shield
    1. Stick with no first use.
    2. but, If there is war between india and china; and pakistan is opening front against india. india will nuke pakistan.
    3. if india on war with pakistan; and china opens front from north india will nuke china straight away.
    or if i can put it like that; either one of the aggressor will be nuked straight away.
     
  18. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I dont think its going to be a problem for India to fight on two fronts.

    China can be held easily in the Himalayas because of the logistics problem. Even in the 62 they had to ceasefire because their lines were stretched. It was more of a "teach India a lesson" war and to demoralize more than anything else. It has backfired as far from being demoralized, India dumped bhai bhai slogan and went about the business of increasing capability to deter China. Nukes have also come along. India will not hold back nukes despite its no first strike policy in the unlikely event of any massive losses to India. Remember, China will attack India only if it thinks it can win a massive victory. Anything less than that will be a big loss of face for it in its power projection world wide. Right now it cannot think of any such massive victory, nor can it in the future.
     
  19. F-14

    F-14 Global Defence Moderator Senior Member

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    we should fight like the Isralies did in the six day war

    our objectives for the war should be

    pakistan

    . capture of POK
    Capture of Sind
    and liberation of baluchistan

    China

    capture of Akksi chin
    Defense of AP
    and sea denial to the PLAN and the Chinises Merchent Navy
     
  20. amitkriit

    amitkriit Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think any such war will be fought as "War of Attrition", India will fight China at "Siliguri Corridor", if we manage to pin them down there, Pakistan can be handled within 2 weeks, giving India clear advantage before ceasefire is declared. Another factor we must be concerned is motivation of Indian masses to bear with any Missile/Airborne attack on Indian civilian targets leading to civilian casualties, China can bear with such attacks better as compared to India, because of their government. China will also have to fight on two fronts:
    a) India
    b) Tibet & Xinxiang, there is a huge chance of uprising in these two provinces during war-time, India may even consider arming them, like we did to Muktivahini, but ultimately Chinese will be able to quell any such unrest, India will have to gain strategic advantage before this happens.

    As far as waterfront is concerned, I am quite sure Indian Ocean is our's, and will remain our's.
    Role of other powers must also be taken into account. While no major power will involve itself into battle we can assume following postures:
    a) Russia remains neutral, halts supply of arms to both China and India
    b) USA will remain neutral as long as we don't attack Chinese cities and vice-versa, but supply of arms through Israel must be expected.
    c) Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will remain neutral, tilting slightly towards China.
    d) West will press for immediate ceasefire.
     
  21. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Easier said than done F-14. Objective of any war with Pakistan should be to cripple its military. Take out its war making ability. But then crippling of its military is one of the nuke threshold in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine. It will launch if it looses a significant chunk of its war machine.
     

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