IAF to buy 14 Tejas squadrons

Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Apollyon, Feb 10, 2014.

  1. Apollyon

    Apollyon Führer Senior Member

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    IAF to buy 14 Tejas squadrons | Business Standard

    No Dassault Rafale for IAF it seems :heh: :yey:
     
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  3. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    India needs lots of fighters jets to protect its skies and I am sure the number of LCA's that are inducted will be more than 14 squadrons. Rafale deal will be signed after the General elections.

    India needs a mix of fighters and there is requirement for MMRCA and Tejas.

    From the article

     
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  4. bhramos

    bhramos Elite Member Elite Member

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    wow thats a good news indeed........ hope same happens with Arjun MKII and other indigenous projects...
     
  5. makmohan

    makmohan Regular Member

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    If these are the order only with IAF, again Navy would buy another 40-50 aircrafts for its fleets so the total order could go close upto to 350. Thats pretty impressive numbers.
     
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  6. datguy79

    datguy79 Regular Member

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    $45 mill per aircraft just to upgrade? Why not buy new fighters at that price?
     
  7. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    I am not entirely sure that you guys understood the actual news. This is what I mean when I said the Indian media is in the gutters since they add their own opinion to actual story.

    Anthony said in parliament that 14 squadrons of Mig-21s and Mig-27s will be replaced by Tejas. He didn't say 14 Tejas squadrons will be inducted to replace them on a one on one basis.

    As it stands today 6 Bison squadrons will be replaced by 6 Tejas squadrons. 4 remaining Mig-27 squadrons will be replaced by 6 Rafales. The remaining 4 Mig-21 squadrons (I don't know which squadrons are still active) will be replaced by MKIs.
     
  8. brahmastra11

    brahmastra11 Regular Member

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    First you say Anthony states in parliament '14 squadrons of Mig-21s and Mig-27s will be replaced by Teajs'.

    Then you add Rafales in place of Tejas..

    You are shocked by the increased order news given by Anthony and you are confused.. I would suggest you to first ensure what you want to state.

     
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    If that is what Anthony said, as per the emboldened portion, then it does mean that 14 Tejas squadrons will be bought.

    India media is not adding its opinion. You are adding your opinion.
     
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  10. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Both of you read this quote very very very carefully.
    All he says is 14 squadrons are to be replaced by Tejas. He doesn't say 14 squadrons are to be replaced by 14 Tejas squadrons.

    The 14 Tejas squadrons was brought in by the journalist. Nowhere in the quote does it say 14 squadrons of Tejas.

    The current plan is written down for all to see. Number of LCA orders won't increase until an IAF panel recommends for more squadrons, and this is only possible after the first Tejas Mk2 is nearing induction or in active service. Normally, such a decision is never taken until a milestone has been achieved. The decision to go for more jets is normally ALWAYS taken after the jet is inducted. C-130J received follow on orders after the jet was inducted. The decision to induct more Phalcons was taken after the first two were in service. The decision to take more C-17s was taken after delivery. The decision to order more P-8Is will be taken after the first one was inducted. And so on. This is a fact.

    Even the number I had calculated a long time ago for squadron strength won't match with what's on the ground. 42 squadrons limit is anticipated by 2022-23 with 14 of them for MKIs, followed by 6 Rafales, 6 Jaguars, 3 Mig-29s, 2 Mirage-2000s. This much is absolute and will not change. That's a total of 31 squadrons.

    The remaining are 11 squadrons with 6 assigned for Tejas. So, it is impossible for 14 squadrons since 11 is the upper limit.

    So, the remaining squadrons are 5. IAF may have reserved them for FGFA initially, when IOC was expected in 2019. And from 2019-2023, it was possible to have all 5 as FGFA. With FGFA being delayed all the way to 2021, we may end up with only one FGFA squadron before 2023.

    Even if LCA Mk2 begins production in 2018, it is only possible to induct 4 squadrons by 2023, apart from the 2 LCA Mk1 squadrons. So, it is not like the remaining 4 left over squadrons can be given to Tejas anyway, since IAF will be forced to wait until 2027 for the remaining 4 and the Navy will also insist on freeing up the production line by then.

    You see now why it is practically impossible for 14 Tejas squadrons, even if it was sanctioned.

    When some media outlet decides to simply thrown around random numbers like what the article just did, then it is obvious someone will raise a counterpoint to that, which I did. If my above "opinion" doesn't make sense to you then please continue to live in your delusions or present an equally credible or better assessment.
     
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  11. Twinblade

    Twinblade Senior Member Senior Member

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    Lot of assumptions in the article. It's not a guarantee that 14 MiG-27 and MiG-21 squadrons would be replaced by 14 Tejas squadrons.

    At 2019, excluding MiG-21 and MiG-27(which should be gone), we will have
    13 Sukhoi Squadrons (production closed)
    3 MiG-29 Squadrons
    2.5 Mirage-2000 squadrons
    4.5 Jaguar Darin III squadrons
    1.5 Rafale squadrons
    2 Tejas Mk1 squadrons

    That is close to 26-27 squadrons. From there on we have another 4.5 squadrons of Rafale on order, 4 Tejas Mk 2 squadrons and 7 FGFA squadrons (going by the current orders) = 42 squadrons. The government will have to increase the santioned strength if it wants to induct 14 tejas squadrons.
    One takeaway from the article is that the Rs 26 Cr (Rs 260 million) figure stated by HAL does not seem to include the developmental cost.

    Going by the commitments of of 40Mk1 + 83Mk2 + 46 Naval Tejas = 159 fighters
    Spreading Rs 140.47 billion over current commitment levels of 149 fighters = Rs 883.46 million per fighter (Rs 88.35 Crore approx)
    So each Tejas will cost around Rs 162 Cr + 88.35 Cr = Rs 250 Cr (~$ 40 million) eventually (although with much higher benefits to local industry than making any other fighter)
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2014
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  12. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Arms agent and dealers will hate this, so are the corrupt officers..................:rofl:
     
  13. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Ok, so you guys (not the article) are saying that 14 squadrons of MiG-21 and MiG-27 will be replaced by less than 14 squadrons of HAL LCA? Ok, I get what you all are saying. I will await further confirmation from news articles.
     
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  14. happy

    happy Senior Member Senior Member

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    IAF will buy 14 Tejas squadrons, lowering costs | Business Standard

    I think that is a categorical statement. I think there is no harm in safely assuming that all 14 squadrons will be replaced with LCA.
     
  15. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    The cost doesn't include the price of engines ordered by ADA. So we have to add that too.
     
  16. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    That is what the article says.

    What the article does say:
    “The MiG-21 and MiG-27 aircrafts of the IAF have already been upgraded and currently equip 14 combat squadrons. These aircraft, however, are planned for being phased out over the next few years and will be replaced by the LCA.”

    What the article does not say:
    “The MiG-21 and MiG-27 aircrafts of the IAF have already been upgraded and currently equip 14 combat squadrons. These aircraft, however, are planned for being phased out over the next few years and will be replaced by the LCA and <insert_aircraft_name_here>.”

    Too much speculation going on here. Let's wait and see whether these speculations are correct.
     
  17. Twinblade

    Twinblade Senior Member Senior Member

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    I am saying they can be, but it would require a corresponding increase in sanctioned squadron strength levels. The trouble is when Ajay Shukla is right, he is right on the bulls eye. When he is wrong he is way off target.The Tejas production numbers are estimated to be close to 20 per annum by the end of this decade which means the current commitment of Tejas Mk2 (navy +AF) would exhaust by 2025 if the production starts by 2018-19. And if long term projections come into play, post 2025, AMCA and FGFA would be in focus for increasing squadron strength numbers, which gives a very very limited window of opportunity for HAL to pump out those extra 8 squadrons by jacking up the production numbers astronomically (40-50 fighters annually). To increase the production capacity in 2019, long term leads would have to be established by 2015-16, including more production bays, more jigs, more trained manpower, more real estate and increased capacity for the sub vendors as well. If any decision has to be taken, it has to be taken in the immediate future. I am sure the Tejas mk2 numbers will increase (including the production rate), but 14 squadrons is delirious.
     
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  18. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I am not necessarily disagreeing with the rest of your post. What I have quoted is relevant here, and corroborates what I said - that it is all speculation. Let's wait for more confirmation.
     
  19. Jagdish58

    Jagdish58 Regular Member

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    What is IAF's commitment?? they have to decide not what antony tells in the parliament is final, because politicians stance change everyday

    90% congress will not in power after May general election hence his comments will not have much value

    Yes if Tejas with Mk1 , Mk2 & even if they come up with Mk3 will be good and boost for indegenisation and avoid MMRCA , but again it is IAF call not what politician say

    FGFA again the Co- design & Co-Production should be similar to Brahmos just to avoid over dependency later on upgrades & spend billions in Maintenance because 5th generation fleet is like having healthy number of elephant in a small zoo
     
  20. makmohan

    makmohan Regular Member

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    More Turbulence Likely for Air Force’s Rafale Deal | idrw.org

    There are fresh signs of trouble for the country’s ‘mother of all deals’ to buy 126 French Rafale combat planes.
    After Defence Minister A K Antony told a DefExpo press conference last week that there were complaints regarding the life cycle cost of the 126 medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) that the IAF is buying, he told Parliament on Monday that all of the MiG-21 and MiG-27 combat planes would be replaced by the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA).
    Antony told the Lok Sabha in written replies to questions that there were 14 combat squadrons of the IAF that use the two Russian-origin single-engine planes and these would be phased out over the next few years. These “will be replaced by the LCA”. Antony’s statement is a major setback for the MMRCA project for which Rafale has been chosen as the lowest bidding aircraft two years ago and the contract, said to be worth Rs 1 lakh crore, is yet to be signed.
    The IAF had originally planned to equip the squadrons that fly the MiG-21s and MiG-27s with the plane chosen under the MMRCA procurment, which now obviously is the Rafale. Though Antony said the Rafale procurement is in the pipeline and that there was no rethink on it now, the trouble with its life-cycle cost calculation is likely to delay the signing of the contract, as he has already indicated that it was not possible within this fiscal. As the UPA’s return to power at the Centre is not certain and hence, the new government may take a while to study the Rafale purchase before taking a decision.
    However, as things stand today, the LCA has obtained its initial operational clearance in December 2013 and is readying to get its final operational clearance by the end of 2014.
    Till now, the MoD only ordered two squadrons comprising 20 LCAs each -- one in the LCA in IOC configuration and another in FOC configuration -- making it a total of 40
     
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