If Syria collapses, and if the Hizb are in disarray in Lebanon, then a serious insurgency in the manner it was in Iraq in the first days can happen and spread to all areas where there is a Shia presence in the population, but not in governance.
If Bahrain burns, where the Shias are in majority as far as the population is concerned, it will spell disaster since the both flanks of the Gulf of Hormuz with have Shia presence; and one being in turmoil i.e. Bahrain.
I still opine that the Arabs have had no experience with democracy in their history and have always been under autocratic rulers or regimes. Even the religion does not have much leeway, as in the Sharia, to deviate. Therefore, they respond to diktats rather than have a free-wheeling mindset. The Wahabis are the most rigid of the lot, but then they are also the Born Again Muslims as they claim and practice - totally devoted to the basic and without the frills.
If one observes, till a certain period in history, Islam was a trendsetter in matters of science and humanities bestowing great boons on society. However, once the concept of ijtihad was disallowed, the religion went into greater rigidity and the scientific temper faded, especially in the Arab world, while elsewhere, as in India, free thinking continued, even if in fits and start.
Therefore, the idea of spreading Democracy and Freedom in the Arab world is a difficult proposition and is as good as casting pearls before swine. Even Egypt, the most progressive nation of the Arab world is floundering and also showing intolerance wherein many Copts were killed when they recently demonstrated!
I say leave these Bedous alone with the camels for intimate company and let them sort their issues in the usual barbaric way that they have done through the centuries!